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EM 105 (B) Process Reliability Engineering Module I Definition of reliability key elements; failure analysis failure density failure rate probability of failure - bathtub curve - Basic reliability equations Reliability in terms of failure rate failure density - relation between reliability, failure density and hazard rate - Mean time to failure (MTTF) Integral equation of MTTF in terms of reliability Module II Hazard models constant hazard model linearly increasing hazard model expressions for reliability, failure density, and probability of failure of these models problems Module III System reliability components connected in series components connected in parallel mixed configuration reliability block diagrams (RBD) distinction between physical configuration and logical configuration problems Module IV Reliability improvement methods Redundancy unit redundancies element redundancies simplification of design parts derating operating environment; Cost of reliability factors to be considered for optimizing the reliability cost References 1. L.S.Srinath, “Reliability Engineering”, Affiliated East -West Press Ltd., 1985 2. E. Balaguruswamy, “Reliability Engineering”, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1984 3. Charles E. Ebling, “Reliability & Maintainability Engg.”, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1997 4. Alessandro Birolini Reliability Engineering Theory and Practice”, Springer, 2007. 5. Lewis, E., “Introduction to Reliability Engineering , John Wiley & Sons, 1995

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  • EM 105 (B) Process Reliability Engineering

    Module I

    Definition of reliability key elements; failure analysis failure density failure rate probability of failure - bathtub curve - Basic reliability equations Reliability in terms of failure rate failure density - relation between reliability, failure density and hazard rate - Mean time to failure (MTTF) Integral equation of MTTF in terms of reliability

    Module II

    Hazard models constant hazard model linearly increasing hazard model expressions for reliability, failure density, and probability of failure of these models problems

    Module III

    System reliability components connected in series components connected in parallel mixed configuration reliability block diagrams (RBD) distinction between physical configuration and logical configuration problems

    Module IV

    Reliability improvement methods Redundancy unit redundancies element redundancies simplification of design parts derating operating environment; Cost of reliability factors to be considered for optimizing the reliability cost

    References

    1. L.S.Srinath, Reliability Engineering, Affiliated East-West Press Ltd., 1985 2. E. Balaguruswamy, Reliability Engineering, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Co.,

    1984

    3. Charles E. Ebling, Reliability & Maintainability Engg., Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1997

    4. Alessandro Birolini Reliability Engineering Theory and Practice, Springer, 2007.

    5. Lewis, E., Introduction to Reliability Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, 1995

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    2

    EM 105 (B) Process Reliability Engineering

    Definition of reliability

    Reliability is the probability that an item will perform a required function for a specified

    period of time under specified operating conditions.

    This definition has four key elements:

    1) The quantification of reliability in terms of probability.

    2) A statement defining the required function as the function is defined in detail, it becomes more clear which product failures impair the success of the mission and

    which do not.

    3) A statement specifying the period of time deterioration of materials and parts with time is natural and consequently the performance level of the unit will also

    go down with time. If the time period is not specified, probability is a meaningless

    number for time oriented products.

    4) A statement defining the operating condition and this could be with regard to temperature, humidity, shock, vibration, and so on.

    Failure data analysis

    Reliability is defined as the probability of a device giving satisfactory performance for a

    specified period under specified operating conditions. When a unit or system does not

    perform satisfactorily, it is said to have failed. The pattern of failure can be obtained from

    life test results. That is, by testing a fairly large number of models until failure occurs,

    and observing the failure rate characteristics as a function of time. The first step,

    therefore, is to link reliability with experimental or field failure data. These data will also provide a basis for formulating or constructing mathematically a failure model for

    general analysis.

    The following data is related with a series of tests conducted under certain stipulated

    conditions on 1000 electronic components. The total duration of the tests is 19 hours. The

    number of components that fail during each hourly interval is noted and the results

    obtained are tabulated below.

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    3

    Time (t)

    No. of

    failures

    ( f)

    Cumulative

    failures (F)

    No. of

    survivors

    (S)

    Failure

    density

    (fd)

    Failure

    rate (Z)

    Reliability

    (R)

    0 0 1000 1

    130 0.130 0.139

    1 130 870 0.870

    83 0.083 0.100

    2 213 787 0.787

    75 0.075 0.100

    3 288 712 0.712

    68 0.068 0.100

    4 356 644 0.644

    62 0.062 0.101

    5 418 582 0.582

    56 0.056 0.101

    6 474 526 0.526

    51 0.051 0.101

    7 525 475 0.475

    46 0.046 0.101

    8 571 429 0.429

    41 0.041 0.100

    9 612 388 0.388

    37 0.037 0.100

    10 649 351 0.351

    34 0.034 0.101

    11 683 317 0.317

    31 0.031 0.103

    12 714 286 0.286

    28 0.028 0.103

    13 742 258 0.258

    64 0.064 0.283

    14 806 194 0.194

    76 0.076 0.486

    15 882 118 0.118

    62 0.062 0.714

    16 944 56 0.056

    40 0.04 1.110

    17 984 16 0.016

    12 0.012 1.200

    18 996 4 0.004

    4 0.004 2.000

    19 1000 0 0

    Total =1 Mean = 0.376

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    4

    The failure density, failure rate, reliability and probability of failure can be defined as

    follows.

    Failure density (fd)

    This is the ratio of number of failures during a given unit interval of time to the total

    number of items at the very beginning of the test (also called as initial population). For

    the given data the failure density associated with the first unit interval is

    13.01000

    1301d

    f

    Similarly, 083.01000

    832d

    f and so on.

    Failure rate (Z)

    This is the ratio of number of failures during a particular unit time interval to the average

    population during that interval. The average population during an interval is the average

    of populations at the beginning and at the end of the interval. For the given data, failure

    rate during the first unit interval is

    139.0

    2

    8701000

    130)1(Z

    Similarly, 100.0

    2

    787870

    83)2(Z and so on.

    Reliability (R)

    This is the ratio of survivors at any given time to the total initial population. Probability of survival is another name for reliability. For the given data, reliability corresponding to first hour is

    870.01000

    870)1(R

    787.01000

    787)2(R and so on.

    Probability of failure

    Probability of failure can also be termed as unreliability factor. Since survival and failure

    are complementary events, Probability of failure = 1- Probability of success (or

    reliability).

    For the given data, probability of failure corresponding to first hour = 1=R(1)

    = 1-0.787

    = 0.213

    Similarly, probability of failure corresponding to fifth hour = 1=R(5)

    = 1-0.582

    = 0.418

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    5

    0

    0.02

    0.04

    0.06

    0.08

    0.1

    0.12

    0.14

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

    Time interval

    Failu

    re d

    ensity

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

    Time interval

    Fai

    lure

    rat

    e

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

    Time

    Relia

    bili

    ty

    Variation of failure density, failure rate, and reliability with time

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    6

    Conclusions

    (i) Let 1d

    f = failure density associated with the first unit time interval

    2d

    f = failure density associated with the first unit time interval

    .

    .

    ld

    f = failure density associated with the last unit time interval

    Then, 121 lddd

    fff

    (ii) Let 1n number of failed components during the first unit interval

    2n number of failed components during the second unit interval

    .

    .

    tn number of failed components associated with the tth unit interval

    N = Total initial population

    Then, Reliability for the tth hour is the number of survivors till the t

    th hour divided by the

    initial population.

    That is, N

    n

    N

    n

    N

    n

    N

    nnnNtR tt

    2121 1)(

    )(

    That is, tddd

    ffftR 21

    1)(

    (iii) Probability of failure for tth hour =

    tdddfff

    21

    (iv) Failure rate or hazard rate associated with the tth hour, Z(t) =

    )()1(

    )()1(2

    2

    )()1(

    )()1()(

    tRtR

    tRtR

    tNRtNR

    tNRtNRtZ (for unit time interval)

    )()(

    )()(2)(

    tRttR

    tRttR

    ttZ (for a time interval of t )

    Problem

    Following table gives the results of tests conducted under severe conditions on 1000

    safety valves. Obtain the failure density and hazard rates for various time intervals.

    Time

    interval 0-4 4-8 8-12 12-16 16-20 20-24

    No. of

    failures 267 59 36 24 23 11

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    7

    Solution

    Time No. of failures Failure density Hazard rate

    0

    267 0.0668 0.00770

    4

    59 0.0150 0.00210

    8

    36 0.0090 0.0137

    12

    24 0.0060 0.0096

    16

    23 0.0058 0.0095

    20

    11 0.0028 0.0047

    24

    Sample calculation for time interval 0 4 is given below.

    0668.010004

    267df

    Probability density function

    Consider the life testing of N components. The total test last for T hours, at the end of

    which all specimens will have failed.

    Let 1n Number of components that failed during the 1st unit interval

    2n Number of components that failed during the 2nd

    unit interval

    .

    .

    ln Number of components that failed during the last unit interval

    Then, 121

    N

    nnn l

    121 l

    ddd fff

    where .,21

    etcff dd are the failure densities associated with the respective intervals.

    When the total population is large and the time interval is very small, the variation of

    failure density with time will be a smooth curve and the summation can be represented by

    integrals.

    0770.0

    2

    )2671000(10004

    267Z

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    8

    Therefore, with reference to the above figure, T

    d df0

    1)(

    (where is a dummy variable)

    That is, the probability that a specimen will fail in T hours is 1 (that is, a certainty).

    In probability theory, the function )(df is known as the probability density function. In

    order to make this function more general, the upper limit T is replaced by This means

    that no specimen in any test will last for an infinite number of hours.

    0

    1)( dfd

    Reliability and Probability of failure in terms of failure density

    Reliability for the tth hour is the number of survivors till the t

    th hour divided by the initial

    population.

    That is, N

    n

    N

    n

    N

    n

    N

    nnnNtR tt

    2121 1)(

    )(

    That is, t

    dddd dfffftR t0

    11)(21

    (for very small time intervals)

    Probability of failuret

    d dftR0

    )(1

    Reliability in terms of hazard rate

    The hazard rate Z(t) can be expressed as

    )()(

    )()(2)(

    tRttR

    tRttR

    ttZ

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    9

    When t is very small and tends to zero, the value of R(t) approaches that of

    )( ttR and we get

    )(

    )()(.)(0 ttR

    tRttRLttZt

    )(

    )(

    )(

    1

    td

    tdR

    tR Since

    )(

    )()(.

    )(

    )(

    0 tR

    tRttRLt

    td

    tdR

    t

    )(ln)( tRdt

    dtZ Since

    )(

    )(

    )(

    1)(ln

    td

    tdR

    tRtR

    dt

    d

    For example, 22

    1)2ln(

    xx

    dx

    d

    Integrating, t

    CtRdZ0

    )(ln)(

    where C is a constant and is a dummy variable.

    At ,0t Reliability 1 0C t

    tRdZ0

    )(ln)(

    t

    dZtR0

    )(exp()(

    Failure density in terms of failure rate and reliability

    N

    tRNttRN

    ttf d

    )()(1)(

    When t is very small and tends to zero, dt

    tdR

    t

    tRttRLttft

    d

    )()()(.)(0

    Also we have, dt

    tdRtRtZ

    td

    tdR

    tRtZ

    )()()(

    )(

    )(

    )(

    1)(

    Combining above two equations we get,

    )()()( tRtZtf d

    Mean Time To Fail (MTTF) and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)

    MTTF is the mean time to first failure and is used in case of components that are not

    repaired when they fail, but are replaced by new components. On the other hand, MTBF

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    10

    is the mean time between two successive component failures and is used with repairable

    equipment or systems.

    Note:

    1) When the number of samples tested is small, it is possible to note the time to failure of each sample and the mean failure rate is given by the formula

    )0(

    )()0(1)(

    N

    TNN

    TTZ

    where, Z(T) is the mean failure rate for T hours

    N(T) is the population remaining at time T

    N(0) is the population at T = 0

    2) As the number of specimens tested becomes large it is tedious to record the time to failure of each

    specimen. Instead, the number which fail during specific intervals of time are recorded. Here

    mean time to failure for N specimens will be

    tnltntntnN

    MTTF l.321

    321

    where, t is the time interval n1 is the number of specimens that failed during the 1

    st interval n2 is the number of specimens that failed during the 2

    nd interval

    .

    .

    ln is the number of specimens that failed during the last interval

    That is, in general, l

    K

    K tKnN

    MTTF1

    1

    Problem

    In the life testing of 10 specimens of a mini-mixer, the time to failure of each specimen is

    recorded as given in the following table. Calculate the mean failure rate for 900 hours and

    the mean time to failure for all ten specimens.

    Specimen

    Number

    Time to Failure

    (hours)

    1 805

    2 810

    3 815

    4 820

    5 825

    6 832

    7 842

    8 856

    9 875

    10 900

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    11

    Solution

    The mean failure rate can be calculated using the expression:

    )0(

    )()0(1)(

    N

    TNN

    TTZ

    Here, Z(900) is to be calculated and N(0)=10 ; N(900)=0

    31011.1900

    1

    900

    0900

    900

    1)900(Z (per hour)

    Mean Time to Fail (MTTF)

    83890087585684283282582081581080510

    1)(MTTF hours

    Problem

    Ten transformers were tested for 500 hours each within the prescribed operating

    conditions, and one transformer failed exactly at the end of the 500 hours exposure. What

    is the failure rate for this type of transformer?

    Solution

    The mean failure rate can be calculated using the expression:

    )0(

    )()0(1)(

    N

    TNN

    TTZ

    0002.05000

    1

    10

    910

    500

    1)500(Z failure / hour

    Mean Time to Fail (MTTF) in integral form l

    K

    K tKnN

    MTTF1

    1

    Also, by definition failure density fd can be expressed as tN

    nf Kd , where Kn is the

    number of failures associated with the thK time interval

    tfN

    nKd

    K

    Hence the expression for MTTF can be written as l

    K

    d ttKfMTTF K1

    )(

    Further tK is the elapsed time t and therefore the expression for the MTTF becomes l

    K

    d ttfMTTF1

    For very small time intervals,

    l

    d dttfMTTF0

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    12

    In the above equation, upper limit l is the number of hours after which there are no

    survivors. It is customary to replace this by infinity since all components will have failed

    at the end of an infinite test period.

    0

    dttfMTTF d

    Also we have,t

    dfdtR0

    )(1)(

    Differentiating with respect to time, )()(

    tfdt

    tdRd

    That is, dt

    tdRtfd

    )()( and substituting this in the equation for MTTF

    00

    )()(

    ttdRdtdt

    tdRtMTTF

    Integrating by parts, dttRttRMTTF0

    0 )()( vduuvudv

    0

    )( dttRMTTF {Since 1)0(R and 0)(R }

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    13

    Hazard Models

    The data obtained from failure tests can be analyzed to obtain reliability, failure density,

    hazard rate and other necessary information. Obviously, the behavioural characteristics

    exhibited by one class of components differ from those exhibited by another class of

    components. In order to compare different behavioural characteristics and also to draw

    general conclusions from behavioural patterns of similar components, a mathematical

    model representing the failure characteristics of the components becomes necessary. The

    procedure involves assuming a function for hazard rate and thereby obtaining reliability

    and failure density by using this failure rate function. The assumed function for the

    hazard rate will be the hazard model. Some of the common hazard models are discussed

    below.

    Constant hazard model

    Here the failure rate is assumed to remain constant with time.

    That is, )(tZ , a constant.

    tddZtRt

    tt

    expexpexp)(exp)( 000

    That is, for a constant hazard model, Reliability, tetR )(

    Probability of failure, tetRtF 1)(1)(

    Failure density, t

    d etRtZtf )()()(

    The variation of failure rate, reliability, probability of failure, and failure density with

    respect to time for a constant hazard model is shown in the following figure.

    Variation of failure rate, reliability, probability of failure, and failure density for a constant hazard model

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    14

    It can be seen that, for a constant hazard model the mean time to failure is the reciprocal

    of failure rate.

    That is, 1

    1011

    )( 0

    000

    eee

    dtedttRMTTFt

    t

    The constant hazard model is also known as exponential reliability case.

    Linearly increasing hazard model

    Here the hazard rate is assumed to increase linearly with time.

    That is, KttZ )( , where K is a constant

    2exp

    2expexp)(exp)(

    2

    0

    2

    00

    KtKdKdZtR

    ttt

    That is, for a linearly increasing hazard model, Reliability, 22

    )(

    Kt

    etR

    Probability of failure, 22

    1)(1)(

    Kt

    etRtF

    Failure density, KttRtZtf d )()()(2

    2Kt

    e

    The variation of failure rate, reliability, probability of failure, and failure density with

    respect to time for a linearly increasing hazard model is shown in the following figure.

    Variation of failure rate, reliability, probability of failure, and failure density for a linearly increasing

    hazard model

    It can be seen from the failure density curve that the curve has a slope equal to K at

    time 0t . Also the value of )(tf d reaches a maximum of e

    Kat time

    Kt

    1, and tends

    to zero as t becomes larger.

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    15

    The Weibul Model

    This model is expressed as 1,)( mKttZ m

    Here K and m are parameters and if these are chosen appropriately, a variety of failure-

    rate situations can be covered, including both the constant hazard and linearly increasing

    hazard conditions.

    If 0m ; KtZ )( - Constant hazard model

    If 1m ; KttZ )( - Linearly increasing model

    1exp

    1expexp)(exp)(

    1

    0

    1

    00m

    Kt

    m

    KdKdZtR

    mt

    mt

    m

    t

    That is, in case of Weibul model, Reliability, 11

    )( mKt m

    etR

    Probability of failure, 11

    1)(1)( mKt m

    etRtF

    Failure density, m

    d KttRtZtf )()()(1

    1

    m

    Kt m

    e

    Following figure shows the variation of reliability in case of Weibul model for various

    values of K and m

    Variation of Reliability in case of Weibul model

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    16

    Bath Tub Curve

    Component failure rate as a function of age follows a curve that is concave upward, as

    shown in the above figure. Because of its shape, this curve is also referred to as bath tub curve. This curve exhibits three distinct zones. The first is the short initial period called variously the early failure, infant mortality, or the burn in period. The decreasing but

    greater failure rate early in life of the system is due to one or more of several potential

    causes. The causes include inadequate testing or screening of components during

    selection or acceptance, damage to components during production, assembly, or testing,

    and choice of components which have too great a failure variability. It shall be a specific

    goal of the supplier to ensure that the early failure period is rigorously controlled and

    covered by a suitable warranty.

    Bath tub curve

    The failures in the second zone are termed service failures. During this period, the failure

    or hazard rate is constant and it represents the effective life of the product.

    The failures in the third zone are the wear-out failures. The incidence of failure in this

    zone is high since most of the components will have exceeded their service life, and

    consequently would have deteriorated. Hence, they are appropriately called wear-out

    failures.

    Note: Failure (death) rates for human beings are different by sex, race, nationality, and other factors but

    all failure rate for humans appear to exhibit this distinctive bath tub curve. The failure rate for infants is extremely high for the first few months, drops sharply, and remains fairly constant for many years and then

    slowly climbs as the person ages.

    System reliability

    A system or a complex product is an assembly of a number of parts or components. The

    components may be connected in series or in parallel, or it may be a mixed system, where

    the components are connected in series as well as in parallel.

    Series configuration

    If the components of an assembly are connected in series the failure of any component

    causes the failure of the assembly or system.

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    17

    Let us consider a system consisting of n units which are connected in series as shown in

    the following figure.

    Reliability block diagram of a system having n components connected in series

    Let the successful operation of these individual units be represented

    by nXXX ,,, 21 and their respective probabilities

    by )(,),(),( 21 nXPXPXP . For the successful operation of the system, it is

    necessary that all n units function satisfactorily. Hence, the probability of the

    simultaneous successful operation of all units is ).( 21 nXandandandXXP .

    Therefore according to multiplication rule,

    ).()( 21 nXandandandXXPtR

    )()()()()( 121213121 nn andXandXXXPandXXXPXXPXPtR

    In this expression, )( 12 XXP represents the probability of the successful operation of unit

    2 under the condition that unit 1 operates successfully. Similarly,

    )/( 121 nn XandandXXXP represents the probability of the successful operation

    of unit n under the condition that all the remaining units 1,2,3,,n-1 are working successfully.If the successful operation of each unit is independent of the successful

    operation of the remaining units, then events nXXX ,,, 21 are independent and

    the above equation becomes

    )()()()( 21 nXPXPXPtR

    That is, nRRRRtR 321)( ,

    where nRRRR 321 are component reliabilities.

    Parallel configuration

    Several systems exist in which successful operation depends on the satisfactory

    functioning of any one of their n sub-systems or elements. They are said to be connected

    in parallel. Let us consider a system consisting of n units which are connected in parallel

    as shown in the following figure.

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    18

    Reliability block diagram of a system having n components connected in parallel

    Let nXXX ,,, 21 represent the successful operation of units 1,2,.,n

    respectively. Similarly, let nXXX ,,, 21 represent the unsuccessful operation.

    If )( 1XP is the probability of successful operation of unit 1, then )( 1XP is the probability

    of its failure. Further, )(1)( 11 XPXP

    For the complete failure of the system, all n units have to fail simultaneously. If F(t) is

    the probability of failure of the system, then

    ).()( 21 nXandandXandXPtF

    )()()()()( 121213121 nn XandXandXXPXandXXPXXPXPtF

    In this expression, )/( 213 XandXXP represents the probability of failure of unit 3 under

    the condition that units 1 and 2 have failed. The other terms can also be interpreted in the

    same manner. If the unit failures are independent of each other, then

    )(1)()()()( 21 tRXPXPXPtF n

    nXPXPXPtR 11(11)( 21

    That is, )1()1(11)( 21 nRRRtR

    where nRRRR 321 are component reliabilities

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    19

    Mixed configuration

    If a system is having a mixed configuration, then it will have components connected in

    parallel as well as in series and the following figure indicates a system having

    components in series and parallel.

    Reliability block diagram of a system having n components connected in parallel

    If 54321 ,,,, RRRRR and 6R are the respective component reliabilities of the components in

    the above configuration, then system reliability can be expressed as

    654321 )1)(1)(1(1)( RRRRRRtR

    Problem

    A certain type of electronic component has a uniform failure rate of 0.00001 per hour.

    What is the reliability for a specified period of service of 10,000 hours?

    Solution

    000001.0 per hour

    10000t hours

    90483.0)1000( 1.010000)00001.0( eeR (or) 90.483%

    Problem

    Given a MTTF of 5000 hours and a uniform failure rate. What is the probability that the

    system failure occurs within 200 hours?

    Solution

    5000

    1 (per hour)

    t = 200 hours

    96079.0)200(200

    5000

    1

    eR (or) 96.079%

    03921.096079.01)200(F (or) 3.921%

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    20

    Problem

    The following reliability requirements have been set on the subsystems of a

    communication system.

    Subsystem Reliability (for a 4 hour period)

    Receiver 0.970

    Control System 0.989

    Power Supply 0.995

    Antenna 0.996

    What is the expected reliability of the overall system?

    Solution

    Assuming that all the four components are necessary for the successful operation of the

    system, 4321)( RRRRtR

    950.0)996.0)(995.0)(989.0)(970.0()(tR (or) 95%

    Problem

    An element has a probability of successful operation of 60% over a given period of time.

    If 4 such components are connected in parallel estimate the improvement factor

    Solution

    Reliability when 4 components (each having a reliability of 0.6) are connected in parallel

    can be expressed as:

    9744.0)6.01)(6.01)(6.01)(6.01(1)(tR

    If x is the improvement factor, then 624.16.0

    9744.09744.06.0 xx

    Problem

    For the Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) shown in the following figure calculate the

    system reliability. The respective component reliability values are also indicated in the

    figure.

    Reliability block diagram

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    21

    Solution

    8183.0)90.0()94.01)(95.01(1)96.0)(95.0()(tR (or) 81.83%

    Problem

    The MTBF of equipment is 500 hours. What is the failure rate expressed in

    a) Failures / hour b) Failures / 106 hours c) % failures / 1000 hours

    Is MTBF a guaranteed failure free period?

    Solution

    Failure rate, 002.0500

    11

    MTBFfailures / hour {Answer (a)}

    200010002.0 6 failures / 106 hours {Answer (b)}

    21000002.0 failures / 1000 hours

    = 200 % failures / 1000 hours {Answer (c)}

    MTBF cannot be regarded as a guaranteed failure free period as it is only a mean value of

    operating times between failures.

    Reliability Increasing Techniques

    One way of achieving high reliabilities is by introducing redundant parts. For example we

    may have two parts in parallel such that the system operates if at least one part operates.

    Here the probability that the system fails is equal to the probability both parts fail. If the

    failures are assumed to be independent, then the system reliability will be R(t) = 1- (1-

    R1)(1-R2), where R1 and R2 are the reliability of the two parts respectively. If the

    reliability of each part is 0.95 at time t, then the reliability of the system is

    R(t) = 1-(1-0.95)(1-0.95) = 0.9975

    By adding a redundant part we have increased the reliability of system at time t from 0.95

    to 0.9975

    We have been assuming that both parts are operating whenever the system is on and the

    failure of one part does not affect the operation of other part. This is some times called

    hot standby and is not always practical. We may need to provide a cold stand by where

    the second part is switched into service when the first one fails. Then we must also take

    into account the reliability of the switch. If we assume we have, as before, two

    components with reliability 0.95 at time t and a switching device with reliability 0.98 at

    time t we have the system reliability at time t as

    R(t) = 0.95 + (0.05)(0.98)(0.95) = 0.9966

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    22

    The above equation is just the probability the first part is operating plus the probability

    the first part fails times the probability the switch operates times the probability the

    second part operates.

    It is to be noted that there is a point of diminishing returns in using redundancy

    configurations; an increase in the level of parallel redundancy employed increases size,

    weight, cost and volume of the equipment and often requires complicated failure-sensing

    devices whose reliability need to be considered.

    As this figure illustrates, as the amount of dollars invested in reliability increases,

    Operation and Support (OS) costs decrease. When the reliability is combined with OS,

    the result is total cost. The objective is to reach the lowest point in the total cost curve at

    which the benefits of reliability (expressed as total operating cost) are optimized with the

    cost of obtaining that level of reliability.

    It is usually necessary to perform trade- off calculations to determine the advisability of

    parallel redundancy versus improvement of the reliability of the basic subsystem by other

    means. Methods for improvement could include the following considerations:

    1) Review the users needs to see if the function of the unreliable part is really necessary to the user. If not eliminate these parts from the design. That is,

    decrease the number of component parts for a system and believe in the vital few.

    For a system that contains items connected in series, assuming independence of

    their individual failures, the reliability of the system is the product of the

    reliabilities of the individual items. If a product has 5 parts, each with reliability

    0.9, then system reliability is 59.09.05

    whereas, if there would have been only

    three parts, the reliability of the system would be 73.09.03

    2) Review the selection of any parts that are relatively new and unproven. Use standard parts whose reliability has been proved. (However, be sure that the

    conditions of previous use are applicable to the new product.)

  • Lecture notes on Process Reliability Engineering Subject handled by Dr.Shouri P. V., Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, MEC, Cochin.

    (for 1st year M.Tech. Mechanical Engineering batch)

    23

    3) Use derating to assure that stresses applied to the parts are lower than the stresses the parts can normally withstand.

    4) Use robust design methods that enable a product to handle unexpected environments.

    5) Control the operating environment to provide conditions that yield lower failure rates Common examples are (a) potting electronic components to protect them

    against climate and shock, and (b) use of cooling equipments to keep down

    ambient temperatures.

    6) Specify replacement schedules to remove and replace low-reliability parts before they reach the wear-out stage.

    7) Prescribe screening tests to detect infant-mortality failures and to eliminate substandard components. The tests include burn in, accelerated life tests etc.

    8) Conduct research and development to attain an improvement in the basic reliability of those components which contribute most of the unreliability.