repeat speeding offenders from an australian perspective dr judy fleiter cricos no. 00213j road...

Repeat speeding offenders from an Australian perspective

Dr Judy Fleiter

CRICOS No. 00213J

Road Safety Network:CIHR Team inTransdisciplinary Studies in DWI Onset, Persistence, Prevention and

Treatment, Douglas Mental Health University Institute, Montreal

2 August 2012

Acknowledgements

Co-researchers– Barry Watson, Vic Siskind, Angela Watson

Australian Research Council– Department of Transport and Main Roads– Queensland Police Service– Office of Economic and Statistical Research

National Health and Medical Research Council Asia-Australia Postdoctoral Research Fellowship

Overview

Speeding and crash involvement in Australia

Speeding recidivist research in Queensland

Implications for future speed management

Australia

Brisbane

Australia = 22.8 million people

Queensland = 4.5 million people Land area = 1.7 million km2

Driver’s licences = 3.1 millionReg.vehicles = 4.3 million

Australian Road Deaths:Improvements from 1970-2010

30.4 deaths/100,000 people 6.1 deaths/100,000 people

With a 2-fold increase in vehicles & 50% growth in population

Improvements in Road Safety in Queensland since 1967

Speed management in Australia

Strong reliance on traffic law enforcement programs:

− traffic laws (eg. speed limits)

− traffic policing (eg. speed cameras)

− sanctions (eg. fines, demerit points, licence loss)

Speeding enforcement in Queensland

History:– 1997: Mobile speed cameras (highly visible, randomly

deployed around selected ‘crash’ sites)

– 2003: Penalties for speeding substantially increased

– 2007: Fixed ‘blackspot’ speed cameras and increase in mobile speed camera sites

– 2010: Covert speed cameras introduced

– 2011: Point-to-point (average) speed cameras operational on 1 section of highway north of Brisbane

Policing supported by mass-media education Evaluations of mobile speed cameras indicate:

− 34% reduction in fatal crashes within 2km of sites

− 42% reduction in serious casualty crashes within 2kmNewstead, 2006; Cameron, 2008; Carnis, Rakotonirainy & Fleiter, 2008

Focus of Traffic Policing

• The Fatal 4– Speeding– Drink driving– Fatigue – driving while tired– Non-use of Seatbelts

CRICOS No. 00213J

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

5

10

15

20

25

30

Percentage of fatalities involving speeding drivers/riders in Queensland: 12 months ending

January 2006 -2011

Year

%

Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, 2011

Percentage of speeding infringements per penalty category, Queensland

< 13 13-20 21-30 31-40 40+0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40.3

50.7

7.6

1 0.4

Km/hour above the speed limit

% o

f in

frin

gem

ents

Queensland Transport, 2008

Speeding offenders...

• Are they all the same?

• Does increasing penalties make any difference?

• What else do they do?

• What might best change their driving behaviour?

Background to recidivism research project

In April 2003, Queensland introduced changes to the speeding penalty regime:

– Increased monetary fines

– Automatic licence suspension for high range speeding (for >40 km/h over the speed limit)

– Increased the number of offence bands/categories

The stated rationale for this change was to deter speeding behaviour

Speeding penalty changesSpeeding offences and penalties in Qld prior to 17 April, 2003

Speeding offences and penalties in Qld from 17 April, 2003

Offence Fine Demerit Points

<15 km/hr over speed limit $90 1

15-29 km/hr over speed limit $135 3


>44 km/hr over speed limit $255 6

Offence Fine Demerit Points

<13 km/hr over speed limit $100 1




>40 km/hr over speed limit $700 8 + 6 months suspension

The effectiveness of increases in speeding penalties

Limited international research into effectiveness of different speeding penalties

Increasing speeding penalties severity (in isolation) has been found to produce very few impacts on behaviour in Sweden (1982 & 1987) and Norway (1995-2004)

Need to consider impact of speeding penalties in:

– deterring the general population from speeding (general deterrence)

– reducing recidivism among offenders (specific deterrence)

Watson et al. 2010

Speeding recidivism research

Our research aimed to: examine the specific deterrent impact of the

changes

profile speeding offenders/recidivists

Method (1)

Crash and offence data from 1996 to 2007 obtained for two cohorts of drivers: - 58,000 drivers convicted of speeding in May 2001

- 53,000 drivers convicted of speeding in May 2003

Data obtained included details of:– index offence

– previous and subsequent traffic crashes and offences

– demographic characteristics

– licence type and class

Method (2)

Final sample for current analyses excluded interstate and international licence holders:

– 2001 pre-penalty change cohort (n = 46,681)

– 2003 post-penalty change cohort (n = 42,180)

Speeding offence records for two years after the index offence were examined

Distinction between:- Absolute specific deterrence – the total prevention of re-offending

- Marginal specific deterrence – a reduction in re-offending

Measures of recidivism

In the follow up period:

1. Proportion of all offenders detected re-offending (Absolute specific deterrence)

2. Average number of offences (Absolute and marginal specific deterrence)

3. Length of delay to re-offence among re-offenders (Marginal specific deterrence)

4. Average number of re-offences among re-offenders (Marginal specific deterrence)

CRICOS No. 00213J

Overall impact of penalty change

Measure of recidivism Hypotheses Outcome

Overall proportion of re-offending in the follow up period

Reduction in the proportion who re-offend after penalty change

Overall frequency of re-offending in the follow up period

Reduction in average number of offences committed (overall) after penalty change

Length of delay to re-offence among re-offenders

Among those who re-offend, longer delay to re-offence after penalty change

Average number of re-offences committed by those who re-offended

Among those who re-offend, reduction in the average number of re-offences after penalty change

Watson et al. 2010

Potential influencing factors – differential effects

1.Index offence severity

2.Offence history

1. Index Offence Severity

Low-range offences: those from the lowest offence category

High-range offences: those that were 30km/hr or greater over the speed limit

Mid-range offences: all other offences

Effects of index offence severity

Compared to those with mid- and low-range offences, those with high-range index offence had a significantly:

− greater proportion re-offending;

− higher average number of offences; and

− higher average number of re-offences.

No differential effects of penalty change

2. Offence History

Low-range offenders: no speeding offences prior to index

High-range offenders: 2 or more speeding offences prior to index, where at least two were 30 km/hr or greater over the speed limit

Mid-range offenders: all other offenders

Effects of offence history

Compared to mid- and low-range offenders, high-range offenders had a significantly:

−greater proportion re-offending;

−higher average number of offences;

−fewer days until re-offence; and

−higher average number of re-offences.

No differential effects of penalty change

Potential Confounding Factors

1. Intensity of speed enforcement– Speed enforcement hours

2. Community perceptions– Annual community attitudes surveys

3. Driving exposure– Fuel sales

1. Intensity of speed enforcement

Speed enforcement

Measure*

2001 Cohort periodMay 2001 – April 2003

2003 Cohort periodMay 2003 – April 2005

Percentage change

Hours of operation

414,699 594,093 43%

Number of offences detected

1,170,373 1,121,735 - 4%

Detection rate

2.82 1.89

* Includes all speed camera and radar based speed enforcement

2. Community perceptions

The trend in self-reported exposure (self and others) to speed cameras was stable from 1998 to 2005.

Reported awareness of penalty changes: – 69% in 2003 (year of change)– 39% in 2004

However, knowledge of the penalty changes varied in terms of accuracy.

3. Driving exposureTime period Litres sold* %change

Pre-penalty change

May 2001 – April 2003 4,515,314,862

Post-penalty change

May 2003 – April 2005 5,902,016,763

30.71% increase

There was an increase in fuel sales from 2001-03 to 2003-05 period. As such, the results obtained in the study would not appear to be due

to any reduction in driving exposure.

*All fuel types sold by fuel retail outlets in Queensland

Speeding recidivists

Speeding recidivist profiling (1)

Examined demographic characteristics, traffic offence histories and criminal histories of speeding offenders

Compared characteristics and offence histories of low and mid-range offenders with high-range, repeat speeding offenders


Utilised the data from the speeding penalty change study for the combined 2001 and 2003 cohorts (because no differences on key variables of interest)

Examined five years of traffic offence history, prior to the index speeding offence

Examined lifetime criminal history

Watson et al. 2009


Three classifications of offenders were determined ‘a priori’

– Low-range: one offence less than 15km/hr over speed limit during study timeframe

– Mid-range: at least one offence more than 15km/hr over the speed limit

– High-range: two or more offences, with at least two being 30 km/hr or more over the speed limit (i.e. high range, repeat offenders)

Low-range5.8%

Mid-range90.5%

High-range3.7%

Breakdown of offenders(n = 84,468)

Profiling results (1)

• Significant differences between high-range offenders compared to low- and mid-range offenders

• Demographics - High-range offenders more likely:– Male– Younger– Hold Provisional licence– Hold Motorcycle licence

Profiling results (2)

Traffic History

• High-range offenders more likely than low- and mid-range offenders to have committed:– Alcohol– Unlicensed driving– Dangerous driving– Seatbelt, and– ‘Other’ traffic offences in the 5 years prior to index

offence

Crash history

Low range Mid range High range0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3% 6.3%14%

97% 93.7%

86%

CrashNo Crash

Low-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 358.6, p < .001, c= .21Mid-range vs. high-range: 2 (1) = 286.2, p < .001, c= .06

Criminal histories 1000 offenders selected

– 300 random sample of low-range– 300 random sample of mid-range– 400 random sample of high-range

Data provided by Queensland Police Service

Overall, 30.5% had at least one criminal offence– 15.9% property (eg. stealing, break and enter)– 14.9% drug offences– 10.2% offences against order (eg. public nuisance)– 7.3% offences against the person (eg. assault)– 7.2% traffic offences (ie. those requiring attendance at court)– 4.6% regulation offences (eg. prostitution, liquor licensing)

Comparison of criminal histories

Low-range offenders

Mid-range offenders

High-range offenders

Overall Criminal history

7.0% 21.0% 55.2%

Property* 38.1% 44.4% 44.3%

Drug* 14.3% 36.5% 53.8%

Person* 14.3% 15.9% 27.1%

Traffic* 52.4% 28.6% 19.5%

Order* 14.3% 28.6% 36.7%

Regulation* 4.8% 3.2% 19.5%

Standardised residuals +/- 1.96 bolded*% of those with criminal history

Conclusions for recidivism research

The introduction of more severe speeding penalties in Queensland appears to have had an absolute specific deterrent effect and reduced re-offending in the following two years

However, the change appears to have had little impact on the overall frequency of re-offending among those who did re-offend

Further research into the effectiveness of speeding penalties and sanctions needed

Conclusions for recidivism research

High-range, repeat speeding offenders appear to be a problematic group of drivers

They are substantially different from low- and mid-range offenders on many demographic, traffic and criminal history factors

Need to consider innovative, tailored strategies for reducing recidivism among high-range, repeat offenders

Speed management priorities (1)

Reduce opportunities to avoid detection and punishment by:− identifying best mix of automatic and manned enforcement

− investigating individuals who accumulate large amount of demerit points (NSW & Victoria)

− developing better detection of speeding motorcyclists

− implementing innovative strategies like point-to-point (average) enforcement which identifies persistent speeding over longer distances


Implement and evaluate innovative sanctions for reducing speeding recidivism

− vehicle impoundment

− intelligent speed adaption (ISA)

− behaviour change/rehabilitation programs


Innovative communication strategies needed to:

− challenge perception that speeding is okay and that everyone speeds

− address community perceptions of enforcement tolerances

− challenge perception that low level speeding is safe

− encourage voluntary use of ISA (private and fleet vehicles)

− learn from success of others…Fleiter & Watson, 2012

Merci.

Thank you for the opportunity to be here today.

Do you have any questions?

[email protected]

Mark your Diaries!

International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety Conference (ICADTS T2013)

August 2013, Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre

References (1)

Auditor-General New South Wales. (2011). Improving Road Safety: Speed Cameras, Road and Traffic Authority - New South Wales Auditor-General’s Report.

Auditor-General Victoria (2011). Victorian Auditor-General’s Report: Road Safety Camera Program.Australian Transport Council. (2011). National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020.

Cameron, M. (2008). Development for strategies for best practice in speed enforcement in Western Australia –, Supplementary Report. Report 277. Melbourne: Monash University Accident Research Centre.

Carnis, L., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. (2008) Speed enforcement programmes in France and Queensland: First elements for a systematic comparison. In High risk road users - motivating behaviour change: what works and what doesn't work? National Conference of the Australasian College of Road Safety and the Travelsafe Committee of the Queensland Parliament, 18-19 September 2008, Brisbane.

Fleiter, J. J., Lennon, A., & Watson, B. (2007). Choosing not to speed: A qualitative exploration of differences in perceptions about speed limit compliance and related issues. Paper presented at the Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Melbourne, 17-19 October, Melbourne.

Fleiter, J. J., Lennon, A., & Watson, B. (2010). How do other people influence your driving speed? Exploring the 'who' and the 'how' of social influences on speeding from a qualitative perspective. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 13, 49-62.

References (2)

Fleiter, J. & Watson, B. (2012). Automated speed enforcement in Australia: Recent examples of the influence of public opinion on program sustainability, Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, August Edition.

Newstead, S. (2006). Evaluation of the crash effects of the Queensland speed camera program in the year 2005. Melbourne: Monash University Accident Research Centre.

Petroulias, T. (2011). Community Attitudes to Road Safety – 2011 Survey Report. In Department of Infrastructure and Transport (Ed.). Canberra.

Queensland TMR (2011). Queensland Road Toll Weekly Report No. 689. Year to date to Sunday 10 April 2011. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Transport & Main Roads.

Watson, B., Watson, A., Siskind, V. & Fleiter, J. (2009). Characteristics and predictors of high-range speeding offences. Proceedings of the 2009 Australasian Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference. Sydney: Roads & Traffic Authority of NSW.

Watson, B., Siskind, V., Fleiter, J. & Watson, A. (2010). Different approaches to measuring specific deterrence: some examples from speeding offender management. Proceedings of the 2010 Australasian Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference. Canberra: Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development & Local Government.

World Health Organization (2004) World report on road traffic injury prevention. Geneva.

repeat speeding offenders from an australian perspective dr judy fleiter cricos no. 00213j road...

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