repro india ltd.breport.myiris.com/sihl/repro_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to...

12
Repro India Ltd. 1 st March 2012 1 | Page CMP Rs.194 Recommendation BUY Target Price Rs.249 Sector: Consumer Key Data Market Cap (Rs. cr) 210 Market Cap (US$ mn) 43 O/S Shares, cr 1.1 Face Value, Rs. 10 Dividend Yield, FY11 3.1% 2 Wk Avg Vol, NSE 21k 52 Wk High 217 52 Wk Low 76 Rs/US$ 48.94 Bloomberg REPR IN Reuters RPRO.BO NSE REPRO BSE 532687 Shareholding Pattern % Q3 FY11 Q3 FY12 Promoters 68.3 67.1 FII 3.3 5.2 DII 0.0 0.0 Public 28.4 27.7 Institutional Holding, % Institution Q3 FY11 Q3 FY12 Asia Advantage Fund 1.3 5.2 Orange Mauritius Investment Ltd 1.9 0.0 Siddharth Rajpurohit (Analyst) [email protected] Ameya Hardas (Research Head) [email protected] 50 100 150 200 250 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Repro Nifty (Rebased) Initiating Coverage Repro India Ltd. (Repro) is an integrated print solution provider incorporated in the year 1984. Repro India Limited provides content, print & fulfillment solutions to publishers across the world. These include digitization, conversion and management of content, printing and binding of books, warehousing and delivery. Investment Rationale Repro observed a huge growth potential in the export segment and to tap this high margin export market the company has set up a printing unit in Surat Sez. The company has its exports to Africa, US and UK, where Africa contributes close to 90% of its total exports. In the African region Repro focus area remains the educational sector where there is huge growth potential backed by government activities and funding by institutions such as UNESCO, World Bank etc. The Indian publication industry has reported a strong growth of 30% YoY and is currently estimated to be over Rs.4,500 cr. By 2020, India will be the world’s largest English speaking country and this clearly indicates the strong growth potential in the industry. With the completion of expansion at the Mahape printing unit the company expects strong growth in the domestic segment and expects Domestic and Exports to contribute equally to the total sales of the company in years ahead. To make Repro a one stop shop for customers the company has heavily invested in backward and forward integration to manage the content well and deliver on time job in various formats. Repro is well equipped to provide solution, start from content creation & management, design, pres- press, print on demand, web press, sheet-fed, post press and warehousing & logistic. Repro has worked in close collaboration with clients to help them meet their end business objectives. The clientele include Penguin, Pearson, OUP, Orient Blackswan, Lakshmi, Saraswati, Rachna Sagar, Jeevandeep, Chetana, Vikram, Symbiosis Distance Learning, Jetking, IIHT, IMS, ICWA, Subhash, Autumn Arcturus etc. and Indian Corporate include Tata Steel, Nokia India, NIIT, Wipro and Satyam Computer Services. The 80% of Repro’s customers give repeat business and engage with Repro in long- term contracts ranging from two to ten years. In July 2011, Repro acquired the India printing operations of Macmillan Publishers India Ltd (MPIL), the subsidiary of renowned UK based Macmillan publishing group. With this deal Repro will not only be able to strengthen its foothold in south India but also MPIL will outsource the printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years. Valuation & Outlook Repro India Ltd. with its integrated capacity at Mahape and Surat is well poised to tap the strong demand in the global printing market. India is a very fragmented market in term of print industry with numerous small players; however with a strong clientele, high end technologies, focus towards high growth education sector and completion of the planned capex, Repro is well placed to register a CAGR growth of 23.6% in sales and 38.3% in EBITDA over FY11/FY15E. As there is no clear listed peer for Repro India we believe discounted cash flow (DCF) to be the best parameter to judge the fair value of the stock. On DCF based analysis we arrive at our target price of Rs.249. At our target price the stock will trade at P/E multiple of 6.3x its FY13E EPS of Rs.39.3. We recommend BUY for Repro India Ltd. with an investment horizon of 12 months and upside potential of 28.4%.

Upload: others

Post on 10-Jul-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

1 | P a g e

CMP Rs.194 Recommendation BUY Target Price Rs.249

Sector: Consumer Key Data Market Cap (Rs. cr) 210 Market Cap (US$ mn) 43 O/S Shares, cr 1.1 Face Value, Rs. 10 Dividend Yield, FY11 3.1% 2 Wk Avg Vol, NSE 21k 52 Wk High 217 52 Wk Low 76 Rs/US$ 48.94 Bloomberg REPR IN Reuters RPRO.BO NSE REPRO BSE 532687

Shareholding Pattern %

Q3 FY11 Q3 FY12 Promoters 68.3 67.1 FII 3.3 5.2 DII 0.0 0.0 Public 28.4 27.7

Institutional Holding, % Institution Q3 FY11 Q3 FY12 Asia Advantage Fund 1.3 5.2 Orange Mauritius Investment Ltd 1.9 0.0

Siddharth Rajpurohit (Analyst) [email protected] Ameya Hardas (Research Head) [email protected]

50

100

150

200

250

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Repro Nifty (Rebased)

Initiating Coverage

Repro India Ltd. (Repro) is an integrated print solution provider incorporated in the year 1984. Repro India Limited provides content, print & fulfillment solutions to publishers across the world. These include digitization, conversion and management of content, printing and binding of books, warehousing and delivery.

Investment Rationale • Repro observed a huge growth potential in the export segment and to tap

this high margin export market the company has set up a printing unit in Surat Sez. The company has its exports to Africa, US and UK, where Africa contributes close to 90% of its total exports. In the African region Repro focus area remains the educational sector where there is huge growth potential backed by government activities and funding by institutions such as UNESCO, World Bank etc.

• The Indian publication industry has reported a strong growth of 30% YoY and is currently estimated to be over Rs.4,500 cr. By 2020, India will be the world’s largest English speaking country and this clearly indicates the strong growth potential in the industry. With the completion of expansion at the Mahape printing unit the company expects strong growth in the domestic segment and expects Domestic and Exports to contribute equally to the total sales of the company in years ahead.

• To make Repro a one stop shop for customers the company has heavily invested in backward and forward integration to manage the content well and deliver on time job in various formats. Repro is well equipped to provide solution, start from content creation & management, design, pres-press, print on demand, web press, sheet-fed, post press and warehousing & logistic.

• Repro has worked in close collaboration with clients to help them meet their end business objectives. The clientele include Penguin, Pearson, OUP, Orient Blackswan, Lakshmi, Saraswati, Rachna Sagar, Jeevandeep, Chetana, Vikram, Symbiosis Distance Learning, Jetking, IIHT, IMS, ICWA, Subhash, Autumn Arcturus etc. and Indian Corporate include Tata Steel, Nokia India, NIIT, Wipro and Satyam Computer Services. The 80% of Repro’s customers give repeat business and engage with Repro in long-term contracts ranging from two to ten years.

• In July 2011, Repro acquired the India printing operations of Macmillan Publishers India Ltd (MPIL), the subsidiary of renowned UK based Macmillan publishing group. With this deal Repro will not only be able to strengthen its foothold in south India but also MPIL will outsource the printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years.

Valuation & Outlook

Repro India Ltd. with its integrated capacity at Mahape and Surat is well poised to tap the strong demand in the global printing market. India is a very fragmented market in term of print industry with numerous small players;

however with a strong clientele, high end technologies, focus towards high growth education sector and completion of the planned capex, Repro is well placed to register a CAGR growth of 23.6% in sales and 38.3% in EBITDA over FY11/FY15E.

As there is no clear listed peer for Repro India we believe discounted cash flow (DCF) to be the best parameter to judge the fair value of the stock. On DCF based analysis we arrive at our target price of Rs.249. At our target price the stock will trade at P/E multiple of 6.3x its FY13E EPS of Rs.39.3. We recommend BUY for Repro India Ltd. with an investment horizon of 12 months and upside potential of 28.4%.

Page 2: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

2 | P a g e

Investment Rationale Strong growth in high margin export business Repro observed a huge growth potential in the export segment and to tap this high margin export market the company has set up a printing unit in Surat Sez in 2008. With this, Repro has witnessed a strong growth momentum (around 33% YoY growth in 9M FY12) in its exports business. Of the total sales exports in 9M FY12 contributed 60%. The company has its exports to Africa, US and UK, where Africa contributes close to 90% of its total exports. Repro has presence across 17 African countries of the total 56 African countries. In the African region Repro focus area remains the educational sector where there is huge growth potential backed by government activities and funding by institutions such as UNESCO, World Bank etc. The company is also gradually focussing on other regions such as UK and US regions and is participating in a number of exhibitions to increase its client base. With the new capacity on stream the company is well poised to grow in the potential high margin export market. Exhibit 1: Annual export trend

Source: Company, SIHL Research Resilient domestic growth The Indian publication industry has reported a strong growth of 30% YoY and is currently estimated to be over Rs.4,500 cr. By 2020, India will be the world’s largest English speaking country and this clearly indicates the strong growth potential in the industry. Repro has gauge this growth spurt and has developed a fully integrated facility at Mahape, to cater to all the four zones - East, West, North and South in the domestic market, which current accounts around 40% of the company’s revenues. In India too, education sector remains the key focus for the company and accounts for close to 90% of the company’s business with majority of its customers being the publishing houses. Some of its major clients include Pearson, Macmillan, Oxford University Press, Orient Blackswan, Laxmi Publication, Vikram, Saraswati Publications, etc. On behalf of publishers for schools funded by the state governments as well as ICSE, CBSE books Repro performs the printing job for them. Repro earlier had a strong hold in the annual report printing business, however it has changed it strategy now and the focus remains education sector (annual report currently only 5% to 6% of total sales). However it currently along with annual report printing offers a range of value-added services such as digital versions, e-annual reports. Infosys, Wipro, Patni, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Airtel, Zee Group, Sterlite Group, etc. are some of its key clients in the annual report segment. With the completion of expansion at the Mahape printing unit the company expects strong growth in the domestic segment and expects Domestic and Exports to contribute equally to the total sales of the company in years ahead.

26

4855

67

140 110 146 138

30%

40% 42%44%

58% 55%

56% 60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 9M FY12

Exports, Rs. cr Exports as % of sales

Page 3: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

3 | P a g e

An integrated player, well equipped with modern technologies To make Repro a one stop shop for customers the company has heavily invested in backward and forward integration to manage the content well and deliver on time job in various formats. Repro is well equipped to provide solution, start from content creation & management, design, pres-press, print on demand, web press, sheet-fed, post press and warehousing & logistic. Both the plants are located close to ports which makes Repro a preferred partner for exports. Repro has invested quite significantly in IT systems and today it can manage up to 20 plants centrally from one location through its centralized planning system. Repro is well equipped to meet the demand of quick production – from a single copy to thousand of books with its digital Print-on-Demand technology. This becomes a key contributor to a publisher’s value chain, as it eliminates the burden of over-stocking, over-distribution, and obsolescence. Repro produces and delivers content in multiple formats, such as educational books, children’s books, trade and retail books, magazines and annual reports. It offers innovative techniques of printing, such as write and wipe, perforation, paint with water and sticker books, among others. Keeping pace with changing needs, Repro has also developed digital solutions such as providing soft copy of annual reports and other company updates online etc. Exhibit 2: Content management & delivery solution

....... Publisher ...... Repro Source: Company, SIHL Research Strong clientele From just a printing press Repro over the years has transformed into a solution provider to specific requirement of its clients. Right from putting into place on-site solutions with digital delivery mechanisms, to connecting publishers with distribution channels that help them open new markets, to helping customers enter the digital space with comprehensive digital solutions – Repro have worked in close collaboration with clients to help them meet their end business objectives. The clientele include Penguin, Pearson, OUP, Orient Blackswan, Lakshmi, Saraswati, Rachna Sagar, Jeevandeep, Chetana, Vikram, Symbiosis Distance Learning, Jetking, IIHT, IMS, ICWA, Subhash, Autumn Arcturus etc. and Indian Corporate include Tata Steel, Nokia India, NIIT, Wipro and Satyam Computer Services. The 80% of Repro’s customers give repeat business and engage with Repro in long-term contracts ranging from two to ten years.

Author / Manuscript attraction

Evaluation & Selection Designing Prepress ready

manuscript

Brief for page composition &

design

Iterations, repurposing,

proofingFile release (PDF, EPUB)Digital archive

Production planning & Pre-press

Printing (Long run / Short run)

Post press-binding, finishing

Packing and warehousing

Inventory Management

Dispatch, Shipping/ e-DeliveryOnline storefrontSales, marketing

and retailing

Content digitalisation

Content conversion

Page 4: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

4 | P a g e

To benefit from the acquisition of the printing business of Macmillan Publication India In July 2011, Repro acquired the India printing operations of Macmillan Publishers India Ltd (MPIL), the subsidiary of renowned UK based Macmillan publishing group. MPIL is one of the largest education books publishers in India. Its parent company Macmillan Ltd. UK is among the largest and best-known publishers in the world. MPIL is focused on publishing innovative, need-based, stimulating and enlightening books for Indian Education sector. It has about 3,000 titles and relationships with over 20,000 schools all over India. The Chennai based printing unit has the capacity to produce about 6 million books per annum and generate revenue close to Rs.20 cr per annum. Repro has bought 85% stake for Rs.4.25 cr and the remaining stake will be bough in next 3 years. With this deal Repro will not only be able to strengthen its foothold in south India but also MPIL will outsource the printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years. The company is integrating the Chennai plant to its centralised processing system and is also analysing the opportunity of capacity expansion. Capacity expansion to drive the growth Repro currently owns and operates 3 plants Mahape, Surat and Chennai. Mahape plant is India first commercially integrated printing facility. Repro has witnessed a strong growth potential in various markets and to tap the incremental demand has done capex at both its Surat and Mahape facility. All the capex was completed by Q3 FY12 and the company now stands at a total annual sales potential of Rs.500 to Rs.550 cr, backed by Rs.250 cr each at Mahape and Surat facility equipped with advanced technologies such as the EFI Digital StoreFront® (DSF), an online web storefront and Enterprise Content Management (ECM) by Oracle another system in the process of implementing to facilitate greater in-process efficiencies. With the new capacities on stream we expect Repro is well positioned to post a 23.6% CAGR growth in net sales in FY12E/FY15E. Furthermore, the company is also open for inorganic growth. The Surat plant is located in Surat Sachin SEZ that has full tax exemption until FY14 (currently pay’s MAT only) and 50% tax benefit for the next 5 years. Also with the increased capacity the company may be able to increase its operating margins by economies of scale. Minutes from our Management Meet

• Repro is a integrated player that can print from One to One million books as per client requirements

• Repro has completed its capex plan and in now well equipped to tap the incremental demand in the global print industry

• With the rise in capacity, company will be able to increase its operating margins by economies of scale

• The company is not much affected from competitors in the industry as the company is focused on the education sector while other large players such as Thomson’s, Manipal etc. are focused on magazines, Journals, annual reports, trade books, brochures etc.

• Repro witnesses a strong demand in its exports target market Africa as well as in the domestic market

• The company is open to inorganic growth if the assets are available at fair value • The company has long term relations with not only its clients but also with its suppliers • Company enjoys 80% repeat business and Repro has long-term contracts with its clients • The company also has long-term contracts with various paper manufacturers to source one of

its key raw material which is paper for printing and the prices are revised quarterly • The company follows a simple hedging policy where it hedges 80% of its net quarterly

exposure which are largely in US$

Page 5: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

5 | P a g e

Peer Comparison Exhibit 3: Peer comparison (based on FY11 financials) Company Name* CMP, Rs. MCap, Rs. cr P/BV, x P/E, x ROA, (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Infomedia 18 Ltd 10.8 54.2 -1.4 -1.2 -61.0 -150.4 -53.7

MPS Ltd. 45.5 76.5 1.1 -8.7 -9.4 -10.0 -10.0

Navneet Pub. 57.3 1,363.8 3.3 20.4 17.6 21.5 29.5

Orient Press Ltd. 88.0 71.1 1.2 6.4 16.3 28.5 19.7

Repro India Ltd. 193.9 210.0 1.3 9.0 8.2 17.3 9.5

Sundaram Multi. 47.2 338.9 3.1 50.2 3.8 6.7 10.2 Source: Company, SIHL Research * arranged alphabetically Valuation & Outlook Exhibit 4: Discounted cash flow analysis Particulars, Rs. cr FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 16E EBIT 39.0 53.1 69.9 93.1 112.6 Tax 7.0 10.6 14.7 20.5 25.9 Post Tax EBIT 32.0 42.5 55.2 72.6 86.7 Depreciation 12.0 14.8 15.3 17.3 20.9 Net Change in WC (Inc)/Dec -15.2 -25.2 -19.0 -29.9 -43.3 Capex 70.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 30.0 Free Cash Flow -41.2 12.1 31.5 40.0 34.4

Cost of Debt 9.0% Total Enterprise Value, Rs. cr 421.8 Cost of Equity 12.4% Net Debt, Rs. cr 152.0 Beta 0.73 Equity Value, Rs. cr 269.8 Risk Free Rate of Return 8.0% Number of Shares, cr 1.1 WACC 9.9% Value per Share 249 Terminal Growth Rate 4.0%

Source: Company, SIHL Research

Repro India Ltd. with its integrated capacity at Mahape and Surat is well poised to tap the strong demand in the global printing market. With the acquisition of the printing press in Chennai the company will now be able to tap the south India print market as well. Backed by global organisations such as UNESCO and with the support from government initiatives there is strong growth in the education sector in Africa which is the key export market for Repro and constitute of 90% of the total export. India is a very fragmented market in term of print industry with numerous small players; however with a long standing customer relation, high end technologies, focus towards high growth education sector and completion of the planned capacity expansion at Mahape and Surat facility, Repro is well placed to register a robust CAGR of 23.6% in sales and 38.3% in EBITDA over FY11/FY15E.

As there is no clear listed peer for Repro India we believe discounted cash flow (DCF) to be the best parameter to judge the fair value of the stock. On DCF based analysis we arrive at our target price of Rs.249. At our target price the stock will trade at P/E multiple of 6.3x its FY13E EPS of Rs.39.3. We recommend BUY for Repro India Ltd. with an investment horizon of 12 months and upside potential of 28.4%.

Page 6: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

6 | P a g e

Company Profile Repro India Ltd. is an integrated print solution provider incorporated in the year 1984. Repro India Limited provides content, print & fulfillment solutions to publishers across the world. These include digitization, conversion and management of content, printing and binding of books, warehousing and delivery. Repro is one of the largest India-based producers of books. The company owns and operates three printing plants located at Mahape, Surat and Chennai. Repro derives 60% of its revenues from the overseas markets. The company exports books to over 100 locations across 4 continents. Africa is the major market accounting for 90% of the total export revenues. Some of the major domestic and overseas clients include Penguin, Pearson, OUP, Orient Blackswan, Lakshmi, Saraswati, Rachna Sagar, Jeevandeep, Chetana, Vikram, Symbiosis Distance Learning, Jetking, IIHT, IMS, ICWA, Subhash, Autumn & Arcturus etc. and Indian Corporate include Tata Steel, Nokia India, NIIT, Wipro and Satyam Computer Services. The 80% of Repro’s customers give repeat business and engage with Repro in long-term contracts ranging from two to ten years. Exhibit 5: End to end solution across publishers’ value chain

Source: Company, SIHL Research Key Management Personnel

1) Mr. Vinod Vohra (Chairman) 2) Mr. Sanjeev Vohra (Managing Director) 3) Mr. Mukesh Dhruve (Director Finance) 4) Mr. Pramod Khera (Executive Director) 5) Dr. Jamshed J. Irani (Non-Executive Director) 6) Mr. Alyque Padamsee (Non-Executive Director)

Repro India

Content solution

>Content dizitalization

>Content conversion

>Content management

Pre press

>CTP and CTF systems

>Artwork creation

>Typesetting

>Digital proofing

>Image setting

>Colour separation

Printing solutions

>Print on demand & short ..runs

>Sheet fed printing

>Web offset printing

>Post Press (Binding & ..finishing)

Fulfillment solutions

>Packing

>Warehousing

>Logistics

>Online Tracking

Page 7: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

7 | P a g e

Industry Outlook Over the years, the printing industry has grown in all parts of the globe. The advent of TV and Internet has not affected the growth of and requirement for printing professionals. The industry has made giant strides in recent times in improving its machinery in terms of the scope, technology and speed. Computers and electronics have invaded all the departments of printing, improving quality and speed of the jobs executed with the consequent enhancement of costs enormously. In fact, the arrival of computers has complemented the printing business and has played a vital role in increasing its status as a clean profession.

The global market for printing is expected to be a strong upward momentum and is forecast to be US$724 billion by 2014. In 2008 North American held the largest market share with 31.2 percent. By 2011, Asia is expected to become the market share leader due to emerging markets in the region and it expected to hold 34.9 percent of the market share by 2014. Exhibit 6: World leading print markets by size (In US$ billion)

Source: PRIMIR, SIHL Research Exhibit 7: World print market by region share, (Year 2008)

Source: PRIMIR, SIHL Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2014

Africa, 0.6%

Middle East, 0.9%

Asia, 30.0%

E.Europe, 3.2%Latin America, 5.1%

North America 31.2%

Australia,1.4%W.Europe, 27.6%

Page 8: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

8 | P a g e

Africa is a priority for UNESCO and education is a key to the region’s development. UNESCO’s Regional Bureau for Education in Dakar and 15 field offices serving sub-Saharan Africa work to keep education high on the agenda of governments and development partners. UNESCO’s International Institute for Capacity Building in Africa (IICBA) focuses on improving the quality of teacher education in the region. UNESCO provides expertise to governments on reforming and rebuilding educational systems. The Organization promotes literacy and education programs for all, throughout life. UNESCO coordinates operational projects in basic, secondary, technical, higher and distance education.

Over the last decade public spending on education in Africa has increased by more than 6% each year, according to a report by the UN educational, scientific and cultural organization (Unesco). The increase in investments has been accompanied by some spectacular results. Between 2000 and 2008, the number of children in primary schooling increased by 48% – from 87 million to 129 million. Enrolment in pre-primary, secondary and tertiary education has also grown by more than 60% during the same period. Education is also a key agenda for government is the African continent as it will bring in more employment. Hence there is a huge potential for the education books suppliers all over the world.

The Indian Printing Industry is well established and presently growing at 12% per annum. According to Global Print report India is the world’s second fastest growing market (after China) with a projected 40% rate of growth from 2009-2014. Not only is India growing extremely fast but it is doing so from a very large base. India’s printing market was about US$ 16.3 billion in 2009 and is forecast to grow to US$ 22.8 billion by 2014. There are more than 8000 daily newspapers published in India, besides a large number of weekly and fortnightly periodicals published in all Indian languages.

The Indian Printing Industry today comprises more than 250,000 big, small and medium printers with a total turnover of more than US$ 16.3 billion. Almost 75% printing presses are family owned and hence closely held.

India’s population of 1.22 billion makes India the second most populous nation in the world. Literacy level has shown a steady increase since 1990 and now stands at 74.04%. If this progress is maintained, it will give a significant boost to traditional publication markets. India literacy rate is short of the planning commission’s target of 85%, but even so, a 74% literacy rate factored into a population of 1.22 billion gives 902 million people who can read. Further, the emergence of the retail revolution across the country is acting as a fuel to the growth of the Printing Industry. The Printing Industry of India is providing employment opportunities to more than 3.0 million people directly and more than 1.5 million indirectly. Due to liberalization and globalization, the printing industry is progressing at a very fast speed by adopting modern technology and by employing professionals. Publishers forecast that India will become the biggest English language book-buying market in the world. Today, it is the third largest after USA and UK.

Page 9: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

9 | P a g e

Quarterly Performance Exhibit 8: Standalone quarterly income statement Particulars, Rs. cr Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12E

Net Sales & Other Operating Income 68.7 72.8 77.4 80.8 85.8

Total Expenditure 59.2 62.0 65.4 66.7 71.6

Raw Materials 38.7 41.0 42.4 40.7 43.3

RM as % of sales 56.4% 56.3% 54.8% 50.4% 50.5%

Operating & Manufacturing Expenses 12.1 12.6 14.3 17.6 19.4

Employee Cost 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.4 8.9

EBITDA 9.5 10.7 12.0 14.1 14.2

EBITDA Margin 13.8% 14.7% 15.4% 17.5% 16.6%

Depreciation 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3

EBIT 6.6 8.0 9.1 11.0 10.9

EBIT Margin 9.5% 10.9% 11.8% 13.6% 12.8%

Other Income 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.9

Interest 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.7

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBT 7.2 8.5 8.5 9.2 9.2

Tax -2.3 -0.2 -0.9 1.0 1.0

Tax rate -31.8% -2.5% -11.0% 10.3% 10.6%

PAT 9.5 8.7 9.4 8.3 8.2

NPM 13.8% 12.0% 12.1% 10.2% 9.5%

EPS, Rs. 8.73 8.03 8.67 7.64 7.55 Source: Company, SIHL Research Exhibit 9: Domestic and export net sales breakup quarterly Particulars Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12E

Domestic 47.0% 40.1% 40.9% 40.3% 45.0%

Export 53.0% 59.9% 59.1% 59.7% 55.0% Source: Company, SIHL Research

Page 10: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

10 | P a g e

Financials Exhibit 10: Standalone income statement Particulars, Rs. cr FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Net Sales & Other Op. Inc. 200.3 259.6 316.7 392.7 Total Expenditure 174.2 229.5 265.7 324.8 Raw Materials 105.8 152.9 167.4 205.2 Op & Manuf. Exp. 44.2 45.9 63.8 78.0 Employee Cost 24.2 30.7 34.5 41.6 EBITDA 26.1 30.2 51.0 67.9 Depreciation 10.0 11.1 12.0 14.8 EBIT 16.1 19.1 39.0 53.1 Other Income 7.2 7.3 5.0 5.9 Interest 6.7 6.8 8.7 10.6 Exceptional Items - - - - PBT 16.6 19.6 35.3 48.4 Tax (1.0) (3.2) 0.8 5.8 PAT 17.6 22.8 34.6 42.6

EPS, Rs. 16.2 21.1 31.9 39.3 Source: Company, SIHL Research Exhibit 11: Standalone balance sheet statement Particulars, Rs. cr FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E SOURCES OF FUNDS: Share Capital 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 Total Reserves 113.0 128.9 154.8 187.0

Shareholder's Funds 123.5 139.4 165.6 197.8

Secured Loans 135.3 156.1 161.1 159.1 Unsecured Loans - - - -

Total Debts 135.3 156.1 161.1 159.1

Total Liabilities 258.8 295.5 326.7 356.9 APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Net Fixed Assets 136.7 142.7 200.7 205.9

Investments 10.8 9.0 9.0 9.0

Net Current Assets 123.2 151.6 124.7 149.8 Miscellaneous Expenses not written off - - - - Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities (11.9) (7.8) (7.8) (7.8) Total Assets 258.8 295.5 326.7 356.9

Source: Company, SIHL Research

Page 11: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

11 | P a g e

Exhibit 12: Standalone cash flow statement Particulars, Rs. cr FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Net Income +Depreciation 27.6 33.9 46.5 57.4 Non-Cash Adjustments (4.7) (5.2) - - Change in Working Capital 1.4 (16.7) (15.2) (25.2) Cash Flow from Operation 24.3 12.0 31.3 32.2 Capital Expenditure 15.7 15.8 70.0 20.0 Change in Investment (Dec)/Inc 10.8 (1.8) - - Other Items 3.4 2.7 - - Cash Flow used in Investing 29.9 16.7 70.0 20.0 Issue of Equity 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.1 Issue/(Repay Debt) 35.2 22.2 5.0 (2.0) Dividend Paid 2.6 3.2 10.1 11.4 Other Financing Cash Flows (2.4) (2.5) - - Cash Flow from Financing 30.4 17.2 (3.4) (12.3) Net Cash 24.8 12.6 (42.1) (0.1)

Source: Company, SIHL Research Exhibit 13: DuPont analysis (Standalone) Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Profit Margin 8.8% 8.8% 10.9% 10.8%

Asset Turnover, x 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.9

Equity Multiplier, x 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0

ROE 14.2% 16.4% 20.9% 21.5% Source: Company, SIHL Research Exhibit 14: Ratio analysis (Standalone) Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EPS, Rs. 16.2 21.1 31.9 39.3 DPS, Rs. 3.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 BV, Rs. 114.0 128.7 152.9 182.7 RoCE 6.2% 6.5% 11.9% 14.9% RoE 14.2% 16.4% 20.9% 21.5% D/E, x 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 P/E, x 12.0 9.2 6.1 4.9 P/B, x 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 EV/EBITDA, x 11.9 10.4 7.1 5.3 MCap/Sales, x 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 Net Profit Margin 8.8% 8.8% 10.9% 10.8% EBITDA Margin 13.0% 11.6% 16.1% 17.3% Sales Growth -17.1% 29.6% 22.0% 24.0% EPS Growth 6.2% 29.8% 51.5% 23.2% Debtor Days 122 117 117 115 Inventory Days 35 26 25 26

Source: Company, SIHL Research

Page 12: Repro India Ltd.breport.myiris.com/SIHL/REPRO_20120301.pdf · printing of their education books to Repro translating into business of close to Rs.250 cr spread over next 5 years

Repro India Ltd. 1st March 2012

12 | P a g e

Contact Details

105/B, 1st Floor, Sahayog Tower, Above Central Bank of India, SV Road, Kandivali (W) Mumbai 400 067 www.sihl.in Contact: [email protected], +91-2801 6715/16 You can also access our reports on Bloomberg (ERH SIH<GO>)

Disclaimer:

The Information provided by SMS or in newsletter or in any document has been prepared by Shah Investor’s Home Ltd (SIHL). The Information provided by SMS or in newsletter does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. SIHL or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report or SMS. This Information provided by SMS, reports or in newsletter is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this Information provided by SMS, report or in newsletter should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this information provided by SMS, report or in newsletter (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information.

The information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other

person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The information provided by report or SMS is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject SIHL and affiliates/ group companies to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this Information provided by SMS or in newsletter in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this Information provided by SMS or in newsletter comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given or Information provided by SMS, report or in newsletter is as of the date of the issue date of report or the date on which SMS provided and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. SIHL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, SIHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current.

Nevertheless, SIHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would

be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither SIHL nor any of its affiliates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in the Information provided by SMS, report or in newsletter are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.