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I research

( + The RAINS Model

1 of Acidification i m Science and Strategies in Europe

I From the systems analytical perspec- tive afforded by RAINS - IIASA's Regional INformation and Simulation model - the book provides a comprehensive and auantitative overview b of ~ u r o ~ e a n - s c i e acidification and of possible policy responses. Soon to be published by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

OPTIONS Advisory Committee: A. Kurz- hanski, B. D G s , F. Schmidt-Bleek, W. Lutz, K . Fedra, T . Vasko, J.-G. Carrier.

OPTIONS is produced quarterly by IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Copyright @ 1990 lnternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Telephone (02236) 71521 0; Telex 079137; Telefax (02236) 71313

Managing Editor: Paul Weaver Information: Sebouh Baghdoyan DesignIGraphics: Martin Schobel Photographs: Franz Karl Nebuda Typography: Linda Foith Printed by: St. Gabriel, Modling

IlASA is an international research insti- tution, which draws on the scientific and financial resources of member organizations in 16 countries to address problems of global significance.

I t has four established research Programs, continually updated to target on emerging issues in areas o f major international concern.

* Environment * Technology, Economy, and Society * System and Decision Sciences * Population

National Member Organizations

Austria - The Austrian Academy o f Sci- ences; Bulgaria - The National Com- mittee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management; Canada - The Canadian Committee for IIASA; Czechoslovakia - The Committee for IlASA o f the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic; Fin- land - The Finnish Committee for IIASA; France - The French Associ- ation for the Development o f Systems Analysis; German Democratic Republic- The Academy o f Sciences o f the German Democratic Republic; Federal Republic o f Germany - The Association for the Advancement o f IIASA; Hungary - The Hungarian Committee for Applied Sys- tems Analysis; Italy - The National Research Council; Japan - The Japan Committee for IIASA; Netherlands - The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, NWO; Poland - The Polish Academy of Sciences; Sweden - The Swedish Council for Planning and Co- ordination of Research; Union o f Soviet Socialist Republics - The Academy of Sciences o f the Union o f Soviet Social- ist Republics; United States o f America - The American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

C entral t o I IASA's func t ion as an inst i tute for applied systems

analysis is the requirement t o provide the tools, informat ion, and advice, needed by those who face and must respond t o real wor ld issues, problems, and opportuni- ties. Our clients are fe l low scientists, practi t ioners, pol icy experts, and decision makers in goverment, industry, and business. T h e needs o f each, though o f ten similarly for- mulated in terms o f generalities, must u l t imately be me t th rough custornization.

Customizat ion can mean many things, b u t i t always starts f r o m a precise understanding o f the

cl ient 's - the u l t imate user's - specific needs. On ly then can research be undertaken t o meet those needs effectively, whether they be for informat ion, an eval- uat ion, a scenario analysis, an analyt ical too l , a decision suppor t system, an expert system, a moni to r ing system, or an improved mathemat ica l procedure. T h e list o f cus tom uses o f research results, l ike the list o f needs t o be fil led, is almost endless.

Th is issue o f O P T I O N S has ar- ticles o n work undertaken a t I lASA for specific cl ient communit ies: Professor Nilsson's work which has provided recommendat ions o n silvi- cul tural practices t o t he European t imber industry; D r . Fedra's customized software systems, such as those for the Du tch Min is t ry for Physical Planning, Housing, and the Environment; and the workshop organized by Professor Schmidt-Bleek tha t is br inging to - gether experts and policymakers f r o m East and West as cont in- u ing expert groups t o f ind ways o f smooth ing the path t o economic re form in Eastern Europe. Each art icle tells the story behind a customized appl icat ion o f general systems analysis and model ing -wh ich , by i ts usefulness and relevance, emphasizes I IASA's growing u t i l i t y t o a widening constituency.

Robert H. Pry, Director

Advanced Computer Appl icat ions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 New Forestry Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 I IASA's C l imate Da ta Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Economic Reform and Integrat ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Interview: Professor Robert Ayres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Cover photo: IlASA's Advanced Computer Applications (ACA) Group

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New developments in A CA 's customized research

I IASA's Applied Computer Ap- plications (ACA) Group, led by

Dr. Kurt Fedra, has signed a new two-year extension o f their contract with the Dutch Ministry for Phys- ical Planning, Housing, and the Environment (VROM), under the terms of which ACA will continue to develop an interactive information and decision support system for environmental risk analysis in

the Netherlands. Current exten- sions include the integration of several databases, such as a list o f major sources of pollution and a hazardous chemical inventory, and porting the system's graphical user interface from GKS t o ACA's application interface tools - the A1

I ToolKit, based on Xlib. 1 The results o f collaboration I with VROM last year, including a

dynamic simulation model t o ana- lyze spills o f toxic material in the Rhine River and display and analysis software for the Environment Ministry's noise division, have already been installed in the Nether- lands. The new contract marks a phase o f intensive activity by ACA, with several continuing contracts, some new commissions, and a set o f recent product installations.

m

5 Wc#Rat Bwenrljn (rMQII&. Dlbyr of Siinulatlon:

: Total Maw dSpill (In kg): 2 Chrmlcal (decay nrbP per day): ' Initial flow In cm for Rhine: .i lnAta1 Flow in mSie for Maas:

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FEATURE

Recent lnstalla tions

s part o f the Ecological Re- A search Program Hanover, ACA is implementing an environmental information system for the environmental division o f the city of Hanover. The implementation is part of an interim project evaluation by the sponsor, the Ministry for Research and Technology of the Federal Republic o f Germany. The software includes a geographical information system (GIs) for interactive construction and analysis of both digital and vector-based maps; integrated databases; and a two-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow and contam- ination model, developed at the University o f Hanover. Built with ACA's A1 ToolKit, the system offers an easy-to-use graphical interface and is designed for users with l itt le or no computer background.

I New Projects

n addition to the work for VROM, I ACA will start a new research project, funded by the Austrian Research Foundation Fonds zur Forderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung. As part of a bilateral agreement between the Austrian Foundation and the Natural Sci- ence Research Foundation o f the People's Republic of China, ACA will collaborate with the Manage- ment Information Systems Depart- ment o f the School of Economics and Management o f Tsinghua University, Beijing, t o develop a decision support system for environmental planning. Combin- ing classical numerical approaches with expert system technology, the hybrid system is designed t o address discrete multi-criteria problems. ACA's partner in the project is Professor Chunjun Zhao.

I Completed Work

F inally, in collaboration with the lnstitut National de Recherche

sur les Transports et leur SCcuritC (IN RETS) o f the French DCparte- ment Evaluation et Recherche en Accidentologie (DERA), a study on transportation risk assessment has recently been completed. In the first phase, a prototype system has been developed for the region o f Haute Normandie. The system, including an integrated GIs and relational database management, coupled t o an intelligent path gen- erator and risk assessment routines featuring interactive definition of transportation scenarios, was installed at INRETS during a workshop on the results o f the study.

For further information about the Advanced Computer Appli- cations Group, contact Dr. Kurt Fedra at IIASA. rn

INRETS DANGEROUS GOODS TIiUHSPOiRl'&TION PROTOTYPE BIIAZA From: SOURCE m, T& DESTINATION

axelude/ include

activities I

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A cross Europe approximately 3 billion m3 o f t imber (over 20%

o f the to ta l t imber inventory) is already suffering pollutant-induced damage. W i t h almost 80% o f Eu- rope's coniferous forest areas and around 40% o f its deciduous forest areas suffering excessive levels o f pollutant deposition, this situation wil l deteriorate further unless actions are taken. IIASA's Forestry Project estimates t imber losses through pollution wi l l be around 85 mil l ion m3 yr-' for the next 100 years.

In addition t o revising emission- abatement strategies (which wi l l take t ime t o implement and have an effect), large-scale felling and replanting can be used t o combat the problem and maintain healthy growing stocks o f commercial tree species. But this wi l l heavily influence future patterns o f wood supply t o industry. In the short term, there may be timber gluts. In the longer term, maintaining sustainable growing stocks wi l l force harvest levels down.

silviculture is considered important t o maintaining high levels o f forest vital i ty and resilience, most countries in Europe have allowed their forests t o get into a condition o f high risk t o stress factors, both natural and anthropogenic.

Effects o f Atmospheric Pollutants

E v e n if conditions were stable,

The Forest Study at IIASA used critical loads specially calculated for European forest zones by the ECE and target loads calculated by the Beijer Institute, together wi th current and projected pollutant deposition patterns obtained using IIASA's Regional Acidifica- t ion INformation and Simulation Model (RAINS) t o map those forest areas that now, or will, experience damaging levels o f sulfur and nitrogen deposition. Results show that

they also need t o be adjusted t o new economic and environmen- ta l realities, and especially t o the conditions caused by continuing atmospheric pollution. The impacts o f pollutants in reducing the rates o f tree growth and in forest dieback are greater than they would have been had better silviculture been practiced. Given the current structure and high vulnerability o f forests, new forest policies wi l l be needed t o keep

11 in the long term,

over all Europe, better silviculture could im- prove biological harvest potential and growing stocks 11

Forestry Practices In e fficien t

L atest findings f r om IIASA's For- est Study show that forestry

practices across Europe are inefficient, and have been for a long period. Potential harvest levels have been higher than actual harvest levels resulting i n an overall discord between the current structure o f forests and the structure that would now exist if handbook silviculture (those silvicultural programs defined by scientists as ideal for each country) had been practiced. Moreover, if handbook

duce the annual harvest potential by about 85 mil l ion m3 yr-l for the next 100 years.

The growth and vital i ty o f Eu- ropean forests are affected by several atmospheric pollutants: oxides o f sulfur and nitrogen, fluorides, heavy metals, ozone, and dust. Since the sensitivity o f different forest ecosystems t o pollution varies, for example, wi th soil type, rainfall, geology, and tree species, there is no single level o f pollutant deposi- t ion permissible. Rather, there are ranges o f critical and target loads - quantitative estimates o f deposition levels not t o be exceeded if forests are t o remain healthy.

Professor Sten Nilsson, Principal Investi- gator of l lASA 's Forest Study

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despite current emission-control agreements, the majority o f Eu- rope's forests wil l still be suffering from excessive sulfur and nitrogen deposition in the year 2000 and that this will affect both the growth rate and life expectancy of trees.

Scientists o f IIASA's Forest Study have estimated the effects o f this excess deposition o f acids on trees of different type and age using the Prognosis and Decision Support Model for Environment Conservation (PEMU) developed in the German Democratic Re- public. This model translates the effects o f exceeding target loads into damage and decline patterns by calculating the life expectancy of affected trees and the time that affected trees spend in each o f four recognized damage classes indicated by the level o f leaf or needle loss. Defoliation is an important indicator of a tree's state of health and o f its growth rate. Tak- ing middle-aged stands (50 years old) as an example, annual growth

rates ot actd~ty-affected con~ferous trees (with 25% needle loss) are commonly between 60% and 80% o f those o f undisturbed trees, de- pending on the rate o f deposition.

Combining information on acid deposition, critical loads, forestry resources, decline cycles, and growth impacts within their Tim- ber Assessment Model, scientists of IIASA's Forest Study have made forecasts, under several scenarios, of the development o f timber resources within Europe over the next 100 years as a basis for testing policy options on emission abatement and silvicultural practices.

Decline in Harvest Levels

W hat emerges is that, under present emission-control

agreements and given a continu- ation o f present silvicultural practices, an overall decline in poten-

tial harvest levels IS inevitable ~ t , at the same time, sustainable growing stocks are to be maintained at current levels. Compared with biological harvest potentials determined by the Forest Study under several no-pollution scenarios, harvest potentials under projected conditions of acidification (obtained using RAINS and based on the likely levels o f emissions to the year 2000 given current international emission-control agreements) are about 85 million m3 yr-' lower. These lower harvest levels will have t o apply for the next 100 years if growing forests are t o be kept at sustainable levels and in sustainable condition.

The split o f harvest losses across countries and regions is far from even. The worst affected countries are the Federal Republic o f Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, each with an annual harvest loss o f between 9 and 12 million rn3 yr-'. In Scandinavia, Sweden and Finland will each lose

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I d

silvicultural measures can be taken t o increase stand vitality, delay the decline process, and save commercial wood. Possible measures include de- layed regeneration, intensified thinning, shortened rotation periods, and changed species composition

II

around 5 million m3 yr-'. The worst affected regions will be Eastern Europe and the EEC-9 (Belgium, Denmark, France, the Federal Republic o f Germany, Ire- land, Italy, Luxemburg, the Nether- lands, and the UK), with harvest losses amounting to about 35 million m3 yr-' and 25 million m3 yr-', respectively.

Remedial Actions

S o, what can be done t o remedy the situation? "Current inter-

national commitments on emission reduction are clearly insufficient," says Professor Sten N ilsson, leader o f IIASA's Forestry Study. "Depo- sition abatement strategy should be changed immediately from that of general emission reduction to one o f optimized, targeted reduc- tions."

But aside from the question o f emission abatement, the study highlights a finding o f special interest t o timber growers and to the timber industry: the importance of tree age as a determinant of resilience t o acidic conditions. Es- sentially, younger trees are much more able to withstand acidic conditions than more mature trees, and will continue t o grow in conditions where older trees would cease growing or even die.

The effect o f age is quite marked. In comparison with middle- aged stands, the process by which trees pass through different damage classes (stages o f defoliation and reduced growth on the path

from planting t o death) operates about 20% faster in older stands and about 20% slower in younger stands. This means, for example, that whereas a young tree growing in an area o f medium sensitivity t o sulfur deposition and experiencing up to 4 g S m-2 yr-' will suffer no ill-effects on its growth rate for, on average, 24 years, an older tree would begin to suffer retarded growth after only 16 years.

Viewed in this light, the existing age structure o f forests across Europe is imbalanced in favor o f mature trees. A notable feature of the distribution of growing stocks of timber per unit area across Europe is their wide range (from a high o f 364 m3 ha-' in Switzerland to a low o f 68 m3 ha-' in Spain). In general, the countries o f Central Europe have high standing volumes per unit area, partly because the age-class structure o f their forests is biased with large proportions of mature and over-mature stands. IIASA's research indicates a change in forest practice, involving large-scale felling and replanting.

Such an adjustment would have major implications for the environment and landscape. I t would also pose problems for decision makers in the timber-processing industry who would face, at once, the prospect o f a short-term timber glut, for which the industry is undercapitalized, and a mid-term timber shortage, which could leave markets unsatisfied and new equipment idle.

Land Conversion

A nother possible solution inves- tigated by the Forest Study

would be t o convert agricultural land to forest and to rehabili- tate degraded forest. For the EEC countries, at least, the conversion o f arable land and pasture would be in line with moves to reform agricultural policy while for other countries throughout Europe land conversion and upgrading hold potential for boosting futire timber supplies and ensuring healthy growing stocks in an otherwise decline situation.

For Europe as a whole, the For- est Study looked into the effect on growing stocks and harvest levels o f an expansion in the land area devoted t o forest by an overall 5% over the period to 2020. The results indicate that this would increase harvesting potential in comparison with the basic no-pollution scenarios by nearly 27 million m3 yr-' by the end o f the simulation period. The level and development o f the growing stock are essentially iden- tical for the two scenarios. The harvest potential o f both coniferous and deciduous species would increase smoothly throughout the whole simulation period.

Dominating the results for Eu- rope is the effect o f the large potential expansion o f forest in the EEC countries. The Forest Study scenarios assume a 24% expansion o f EEC forest area (from about 29 million ha to about 36 million ha) gradually phased in over the period to 2020. The effect is t o increase potential harvest levels by 19 million m3 yr-' by the end o f the simulation period in comparison with the base scenario. The total potential harvest level increases smoothly throughout this period.

Results from I IASA 's Forest Study are soon t o be published in a three-volume set. The books, now in preparation, investigate different potential silvicultural and policy responses t o the development of forest 'resources within Europe.

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IIASA's CIimafe Data Base Complete climate data base constructed by Biosphere Project

u nderlying the work o f the Bio- sphere Project is the need t o

establish the role o f climate in determining vegetation patterns - only when this is clarified can the likely impact o f cl imate change on vegetation be projected. To do this requires an accurate and complete knowledge o f current climate. Given this background, it may seem surprising, then, that our ability t o describe current cl imate has, t o date, been very limited. Bu t now, by interpolation o f a large set o f readings f rom weather stations worldwide t o a grid o f land cells wi th a resolution o f 0.5", scientists f rom IIASA's Biosphere Project have developed probably the most accurate data set on current cl imate yet constructed.

The data set, based entirely on weather records, is embodied within a geographical information system that permits instant visu- alization o f current cl imatic conditions and data manipulation for a wide range o f applications. Whi le the immediate use for the data set is in specifying accurate life- and vegetation-zone types and boundaries and in projecting the impact o f any future climate changes on vegetation patterns (see OPTIONS, September 1989), i ts range o f future applications is immense, especially for agricultural, biogeo- graphical, and ecological studies.

Inadequacy of Existing Data

T o date, a complete, objective picture o f global climate has

been difficult t o obtain and scientists have often resorted t o rather crude approximations o f cl imatic

I zone boundaries using less than ideal surrogates, like vegetation distributions. In effect, our knowledge o f cl imate has been built using a combination o f weather readings and non-weather indicators. Cli- matologists have inferred climate f r om vegetation patterns while biologists have drawn upon spa- t ia l classifications o f climate t o adduce the influence o f cl imate on vegetation. The circularities involved mean that it has been virtually impossible t o calculate the true influence o f climate on vegetation.

A t the root o f the problem has been the absence o f complete and representative weather records covering the whole globe. First and foremost, this is because o f the uneven distribution o f weather stations worldwide. Some areas, especially those that are inhospitable and sparsely populated, have no or few stations. While more stations have recently been established in such areas, only short time-series data are available for these as yet.

Second, there have been few systematic attempts t o collate available weather data and t o use appropriate interpolation routines t o infer conditions at sites for which no field data are available. Instead, weather conditions in such areas have been inferred, where possible, f rom prevailing vegetation. But prevailing vege- tat ion is not necessarily a good surrogate for climatic conditions. Specific edaphic and hydrological conditions and vegetation dynamics influence species composition and vegetation structure. Also, humans have eradicated natural vegetation or replaced it wi th agricultural species across large areas so that, for these, no (or

Dr. Rik Leemans of I lASA's Biosphere Project.

only very approximate) inferences about climate can be drawn.

The problem is compounded by the understanding, f rom data that have been available, that cl imate is not constant and that, irrespective o f any buildup o f atmospheric greenhouse gases, indicators o f average global temperature and precipitation exhibit considerable variation between years. These variations occur in the form o f waves overlying the general warm- ing trend. They imply that, t o obtain an unbiased impression of cl imate and o f how climate is changing, one must study a t ime series o f weather records embrac- ing several years that fal l midway between the peaks and troughs o f the weather cycles.

Approach

e Biosphere Project o f I IASA's Environment Program set out Th

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Figure 3

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. -------- " I S b-.

- .

Figure 4

Figures:

1. Growing degree days above 5".

2. Continentality index (Conrad, 1947).

3 . Annual mean precipitation (in mil- limeters).

4 . Percentage cloudiness for January.

5. Percentage cloudiness for July.

6 . The Holdridge life-zone classification (the color indicates the clustering used in the Holdridge life-zone world

map).

7 . The Holdridge life-zone world map.

t o make best use o f available cli- mat ic data t o generate the picture o f current climate needed for its study o f global vegetation change. A basic consideration was t o determine climate f rom weather-station records alone and not t o rely on surrogate indicators.

Dr. Rik Leemans o f IIASA's Biosphere Project together wi th Dr. Wolfgang Cramer o f the Uni- versity o f Trondheim, Norway, collated data f rom several sources both published (Weather Bureau, 1959; Walter and Leith, 1960- 67; Meteorological Office, 1972; Miiller, 1982) and unpublished (China, USSR). The different data

Figure 5

sets were separately screened for errors, outliers, unreliable stations, and doublets. A n observation record o f between 10 and 40 years (if possible a period o f 30 years between 1931 and 1960 which, trend analysis indicates, corresponds t o an average interpeak period) was used for calculating mean monthly temperature and precipitation values. The final data set contained readings for around 6,100 stations charaterized by longitude, latitude, and altitude.

This array o f selected stations was used t o create a global monthly temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness database for land areas

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on a gr id w i t h a resolution o f 0.5' (around 55 km2 a t the equator).

T h e interpolat ion scheme used for each variable was a smooth sur- face f i t t i ng on a tr iangular network based on al l stations. Temperature values were corrected t o mean sea- level before the interpolat ion and, afterward, readjusted t o the modal height o f each cell (obtained f r o m a topography data set supplied by

the US Nat ional Geophysical Data Center). Figures 1-5 show wor ld maps w i t h c l imat ic parameters de- r ived f r o m the data set.

life-zone classification system: a scheme tha t relates vegetation zones t o weather indicators tha t can be derived f r o m basic month ly temperatureand precipitat ion readings. T h e three indicators upon which the system relies are biotem- perature (based o n the length o f and temperature dur ing the grow- i ng season), mean annual precipitat ion, and a potent ia l evapotran- spiration ra t io tha t l inks biotem- perature w i t h annual precipita-

Holdridge L ife-Zones

T he result ing data were then used t o develop sets o f indi-

cators relevant t o the Holdridge

Figure 6 t ion and defines d i f ~ e r e n t ' h u m ' i d i t ~ provinces. T h e three c l imat ic indicators are displayed graphically i n a logar i thmic system, so that each separate life-zone becomes equally significant (Figure 6).

Using a combinat ion o f these three indicators derived f r o m the c l imate data set, the Biosphere Project was able t o develop a global life-zone m a p (Figure 7) that, by comparison w i t h actual vegetation zones, can be used t o test the real and direct contr ibut ion o f c l imate in determining vegetation patterns. Also, because o f i ts high correspon- dence w i t h these patterns, the m a p can be used as a basis for assessing the effect o n vegetation zones o f future c l imate change.

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Economic reform and iniegruiion

A t a remarkable and historic meet ing organized by Professor

Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek, Leader o f I IASA's Technology, Economy, and Society (TES) Program, leading Western policy advisors and t o p Soviet and Eastern European policymakers came together t o discuss ways o f achieving economic reform in Eastern Europe and t o establish a cont inuing program o f research and consultation o n the reform process mediated through I IASA's Economic Reform and Integrat ion (ERI) Project. I n organizing the meeting, Professor Schmidt-Bleek was greatly aided by Dr . Peter Aven also f r o m TES. As a result o f a unique agreement reached a t the meeting, the USSR is t o refer dra f t legislation o n economic reform for constructive comment t o one o f f ive expert working groups established by I IASA.

T h e agreement signals a remarkable first i n international co- operat ion - wi th leading US, Western European, and Japanese economists pledging practical assistance t o help guide the Soviet and Eastern European economies dur ing a period o f major t ran- sition, and the Council for M u - tual Economic Assistance ( C M EA) countries commi t t i ng t o inject the experience and judgment o f West- ern experts i n to their policy development.

T h e goal o f all parties is t o achieve an effective and efficient transit ion toward more market- based economies tha t w i l l also avoid the more unacceptable effects o f massive dislocation and structural adjustment currently being experienced.

T h e agreement, along w i t h several other outcomes f r o m the

meeting, also registers a key role for I IASA, and in part icular for the ERI Project o f the TES Program. I t establishes I IASA's ERI Project as the central, neutral, scientific, and objective mediator and coordinator o f a unique process o f international consultation tha t w i l l help chart the economic future for 250 mi l - l ion Soviet citizens. It also offers comparable assistance t o al l other C M E A countries wishing t o take part i n the dialogue. Indeed, the process o f widening the scope o f the Project t o embrace the fu l l set o f C M E A countries is already under way.

I n turn, through I IASA, an opportuni ty has been created for key US, Western European, and Japanese policy analysts and advisors not just t o contr ibute t o the process o f economic reform in East- ern Europe, but t o be given con- fidential, early, and comprehensive access t o legislative proposals that wi l l determine the future economic architecture o f the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe - the architecture that w i l l set the f rame for all forms o f future East-West economic cooperation and relations.

Background

T he ERI Project a t I IASA, which masterminded the meet-

ing, was established on the ini- t iat ive of Academician Stanislav Shatalin, a member o f the State Commission o n Economic Reform and o f the Presidium o f the Na- t ional Academy o f Sciences o f the USSR. A close observer o f the Soviet economy and one o f the architects o f economic re-

form, Academician Shatalin's concern was t o establish a scientific dialogue through I lASA between Eastern policymakers and Western experts fami l iar w i t h the management of market economies t o help translate perestroika i n to tangible economic results at a t ime o f fun- damental st ructural readjustment. Whi le there had been a great deal o f ta lk a t the highest levels about the need for such cooperation, unt i l his in i t iat ive there had been no practical steps taken t o establish such a dialogue.

Academician Shatalin's con- cerns were based on his analysis o f the current state o f the So- viet economy and o f the fai lure o f perestroika, t o date, t o deliver much-needed results. At the roo t o f the problem is the low efficiency o f the Soviet economy, which results f r o m the intr insic logic o f the economic system w i t h i ts emphasis o n g rowth and quant i ty rather than o n efficiency and quali ty as the criteria o f performance. Low efficiency, in turn, is part ial ly responsible for t he shortages now being experienced and, owing t o the excessive and wasteful applica- t ion o f raw materials i n product ion processes, has also contr ibuted t o severe ecological damage that now needs t o be repaired. Past policies, which diverted ever-more resources t o inefficient production, aggravated the problem.

Perestroika, which is designed t o implement a market economy in place o f the central-planning sys- t e m and t o decentralize decision mak ing t o individual enterprises, has so far only worsened condit ions by adding confusion. Essentially, the process of dismant l ing the old system has proceeded more

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rapidly than the creation o f a replacement, leaving a vacuum and creat ing severe problems o f dislocation. Th is has resulted i n the need for some tact ical back- t racking and the decision t o seek a dialogue w i t h Western experts o n an appropriate path t o a more market-oriented economy.

T o establish and organize the ERI Project, a planning meet ing was held a t I IASA, 11-12 De- cember 1989, attended by policy experts and analysts f r o m ten countries, b o t h East and West. A t t ha t meeting, an array o f economic problems in Eastern Eu- rope needing urgent at tent ion was used as the basis for structur ing the research and consultancy work o f the Project i n to f ive key areas, each t o be addressed by a broad-based study group o f experts drawn f r o m several countries and chaired by an internationally renowned expert in the relevant field. T h e five study groups cover: capital markets and privatization; the labor market and employment; the opening o f the economy; economic stabil ization; and prices/indexation.

High- Level Participation

he Laxenburg meeting, held 1- T3 M arch 1990, was the f irst international meet ing o f the study groups and at t racted the highest level o f part ic ipat ion f r o m all parties. Part icipants included: Profes- sor Ivanov, First Deputy Chairman o f the USSR Commission o n For- eign Economic Relations; Professor Yasin o f t he USSR Commission o n Economic Reform; Professor Shokhin, Economic Advisor t o the Foreign Minister o f the USSR; Professor Khandruyev, Director o f the Scientific and Research Insti- tu te fo r Money and Banking o f the State Bank o f the USSR; Dr . Brom, Deputy Chairman o f the Czechoslovakian State Commi t tee

for Technology and Industry; Pro- fessors Haustein (GDR), Lutowski (Poland), and Tardos (Hungary); and Dr . Gacs o f the Inst i tute fo r Economic and Market Research and Informatics, Hungary.

T h e advisory group included: Professor Friedman, o f Harvard, Professor Kahn o f Cornell, Profes- sor Rees o f Princeton, and Profes- sors Montias, Nordhaus, and Peck o f Yale; Dr . Solomon o f S.G. War - bu rg & Co. Inc.; Professor Cooper; Dr . II Sakong, the Former Minister o f Finance o f South Korea; Pro- fessor Nishimura, Ghief Economist at the Industrial Research Division o f the Long-Term Credit Bank o f Japan; Professor Takana, the Deputy Director General o f the Administrat ive Management Bu- reau, the Pr ime Minister's Of - fice, Japan; Professors N u t i and Frey (Italy), Kiv ikar i (Finland), and W i b e (Sweden); D r . Mencke- Gluckert (Federal Republic o f Ger- many); M r . Loeser o f the Central Advisory Group of the President o f the European Commission o f the Communit ies; and Professor Albeda, President o f the Scientific Council fo r Government Policy i n the Hague and Chairman o f the Board o f M E R I T .

In total , more than 50 interna- t ionally renowned experts part ici- pated i n the meeting, which was attended also by representatives o f internat ional organizations in- c luding the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), UNIDO, the Wor ld Bank, and the Commis- sion o f the European Commu- nities (CEC). Ambassadors and the Vienna-based representatives o f 14 countries attended an informa l gather ing dur ing which they were briefed o n the meet ing and i ts results.

Apar t f r o m the obvious high caliber o f i ts participants, the meet ing was characterized by the candor and sincerity o f the part icipants regarding the problems faced and by their intent t o agree on measures tha t m igh t be taken t o solve them. T h e discussions were lively

and informed, o f ten drawing o n his- tor ical parallels i n other countries and regions where major reforms had been init iated. T h e variety o f views and approaches expressed, not only among Western experts o f different schools, but also among the different Soviet and Eastern European part icipants, reflected the keen and high level o f economic debate currently under way i n Eastern Europe and the significance for pol i t ical and economic stabil i ty o f f inding the r ight solu- t ion.

Results

T he main outcomes o f the meet ing included several agree-

ments:

T o establish priorities across relevant issues wi th in each o f the f ive study group areas and t o act t o address them. T o refer relevant draf t legisla- t ion o n economic re form in the USSR, through I IASA's T E S Program and the ERI project, t o study groups for constructive comment and guidance on the content, t iming, relevance, se- quencing, feasibility o f actions, etc. T o prepare detailed discussion papers on pr ior i ty issues i n the USSR. These papers would also set o u t current th ink ing and approaches. T o invi te and encourage other Eastern European countries t o fo l low th is procedure, using ERI as the mediator. T o develop topics for fu ture research i n each o f t he main study areas.

Already, as a fo l low-up t o the meeting, Professor Schmidt- Bleek has visited Prague t o in- v i te fu l l Czechoslovakian involve- ment and has been requested by the Czechoslovakian authorit ies t o solicit comments o n their current draf t plan for a t ta in ing a market economy.

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Professor Robert Ayres

P rofessor Robert Ayres, f rom the Department o f Engineering

and Public Policy a t Carnegie- Mellon University, is leader o f IIASA's Computer Integrated Man- ufacturing (CIM) Project, which is currently at the reporting stage and is scheduled t o publish several manuscripts on the diffusion, implementation, and impact o f

- -

II a new industrial rev-

olution is under way

II

database on 700 flexible manufactur ing systems (FMS) worldwide, described by technological and economic indicators. This database forms the basis for some o f the Project's analysis and projections. I t has also carried out a large number o f in-depth case studies in several countries and prepared a number o f economic projections based on different models. Results f rom the four-year Project, including an overview volume CIM: Revolution in Progress authored by Professor Ayres, are t o be published by Chapman and Hall. The overview volume should be available by mid-summer 1990.

Q.. . W h a t i s compu te r in te - g ra ted manu fac tu r i ng a n d w h y i s I l A S A invo lved in s tudy i ng i t s d i f fus ion a n d i m p a c t ?

A. . . A new industrial revolution is under way. If the first industrial revolution was the substitution o f steam power for human and animal muscles, the present revolution is the substitution o f electronic sen- sors for human eyes and ears and o f computers for human brains - at least in a certain categoryof routine on-line manufacturing operations. The industrial importance o f steam power was, o f course, obvious t o the entrepreneurs who developed i t ; but the larger and longer-run implications - f rom satanic mills and child labor t o acid rain and

climate change - were not fore- seen at all. It's probable that the consequences o f the present revolution may be as far-reaching (and as unexpected) as the consequences o f the first, and it is not a moment too soon for those in responsible positions t o antic- ipate some o f the changes that lie ahead and consider the policy options likely t o be available - or unavailable - under various plausible scenarios. The urgency o f the situation is compounded by the scope and speed o f the change in physical production technology and its simultaneous diffusion in nations across the globe.

Q.. . T h e very n o t i o n o f a revo- l u t i o n presupposes a barr ier t h a t h a d to b e overcome. If C I M represents a "revolution," w h a t are t h e d r i v i ng forces beh ind t h e rap id adop t i on of C I M technologies a n d w h a t barr iers h a d t o b e overcome?

A.. . Let's start w i th the potential. The potential t o comput- erize manufacturing came f rom the spectacular rate o f development o f electronic sensing, data processing, and control capabilities that followed the introduction o f semiconductor devices and integrated circuitry. Conventional wisdom says the factor that supplied the impetus t o apply these

new capabilities t o manufacturing was the need for greater flexibility. By implication, the barrier t o be overcome was the rigidity o f so-called "hard automation" and, for that matter, the mode o f industrial organization (often called "Fordism" or "Taylorism- Fordism") that evolved wi th it. However, this is a rather sim- plistic and incomplete view. Whi le no one would seriously doubt the importance o f flexibility, the logical connections between computers and flexibility are less robust than they at first appear. Computers are certainly not more flexible than humans, so the flexibility argument - at least in the nar- row sense - is only applicable t o the substitution o f programmable- for hard-automation. Whi le there are examples o f this sort o f substitution, the true situation is more complicated. It has t o do wi th the need for better quality and t o be able t o manufacture, cost-effectively, a greater variety o f products, which are generally

Options, March 90

more complex than before and which must often be customized to the buyer's specific requirements. Behind all this, has been a complete change in the market pertain- ing to manufactures: a breakdown of oligopolies, the globalization of markets, and an intensification of international competition.

Q.. . Could you elaborate o n the background t o t h e market changes t h a t led t o increased compet i t ion and o n t h e role o f C I M i n enabl ing manufacturers t o meet these new market chal- lenges?

A. . . Most of the changes have occurred over the last 10 t o 15 years. During that time, many ar- tificial barriers t o trade imposed by national governments or by trading blocs were simply nego- tiated away. The concept of US producers monopolizing the US market or o f French producers monopolizing the French market is disappearing or has disappeared. In the new, global market, all producers need to export and all have to compete with, among others, Japanese manufacturers. The Japanese have had a tremendous impact on manufacturing technology and management everywhere. They were early adopters o f some of the CIM technologies, notably robotics, and were able to reap the benefits in the marketplace of the cost and quality advantages CIM gave them through, for example, low defect rates on products and components. In a highly competitive market, the benefits of CIM continue to show. At present, the advantages come especially through high manufacturing quality and product reliability, and from the capacity to customize products. In the longer term, benefits will accrue through other mechanisms: for example, through increases in labor and, especially, capital productivity. These will only show up when manufacturers achieve a meta-level system of direct and automatic

II in a highly competi-

t ive market, the bene- f i ts of ClM continue t o show II

communication between computers and functions so that, for example, the act of registering an order automatically triggers responses that ensure materials supply, schedule production, and organize accounting.

Q.. . W h a t wi l l wide-scale adopt ion o f C I M mean for employment i n t he manufactur ing sector?

A . . . It 's certainly the case that a lower percentage of the work force will be employed in the manufacturing sector in the future. What's less clearcut is that CIM will in any way be the responsible factor. We currently have an anomalous situation. We are at the tail end of a period with a large middle class o f which a significant component consists of unionized workers who are essentially unskilled, at least by modern standards. The situation is relict from the days of the oligopolies when producers with guaranteed shares of domestic markets and operating under a strict division of labor were able to concede large pay increases (unwarranted by productivity) and were vulnerable to pressures by organized labor. With the end o f protected markets and oligopolies, these days are over - the privatization o f publicly owned corporations is the last act o f the drama. With the oligopolies gone and formerly national markets now becoming international, the share o f unionized employment in the manufacturing sector will decline, and manufacturing wages

will lag behind wages in other sectors. To date, the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan have been able to resist this trend only by in- creasing their market share in the engineering sectors. Over the next few years, direct labor will continue to decline and will bottom out, say 30 years from now, at between 5% and 10% of the work force - like in agriculture.

Q... W h a t does C I M imply for capital product iv i ty?

A.. . Capital costs now typically account for 25% to 30% o f final manufacturing costs. The main impact CIM has on manufacturing costs is through the flexibility, reliability, and intensity of use of capital equipment. If a machine is flexible enough t o be controlled by a computer program, it's only the program and not the plant that needs to be changed to produce a different product. While numerical control machines cost more than manual machines, they are not dedicated t o produce one specific product, so fewer are needed to produce a given range of products. Each machine is likely t o be used more intensively. One big capital saving this implies is in the productivity of factory buildings. A few, small, multi-product factories can replace the need for many large, dedicated plants - and this is likely t o happen in the future especially since energy (and, by implication, transport) costs will increase. In- deed, we stand at the point of a historic shift in the driving force for economic growth from economies of scale t o economies of scope. The prospects for the economies of the developed world look very good since several mutually sup- porting trends (greater capital and labor productivity, reduced inven- tories, more complete integration of functions, smaller factories, decentralization, etc.) will come together during the next decade and will accelerate the rate of productivity growth. CIM will play a major part here. rn

Opt ions, A4arch 90

RAINS

S everal new research cont rac ts have been signed by I I A S A ' s Trans-

boundary A i r Po l lu t ion Pro jec t for the fu r ther development, adapta t ion . and app l ica t ion o f i t s Regional Ac id- i f i ca t ion IN fo rma t i on and S imu la t i on (RA INS) model .

A con t rac t has been agreed w i t h the Aust r ian M in i s t r y for Science and Research t o calculate cr i t ical loads for acidic deposi t ion i n Aust r ia . Cr i t i ca l loads are those rates o f acidic depo- s i t ion ( resu l t ing ma in l y f r o m transboundary air po l lu t ion) , above which damage is l ikely t o occur t o sensit ive ecosystems such as forest soils and lakes. T h e work , wh ich w i l l be carried o u t i n co l labora t ion w i t h ins t i tu t ions i n the Nether lands. F in land, and Aus t r i a , w i l l provide the scientif ic basis for t he Aust r ian cont r ibu t ion t o the Un i ted Nat ions Economic Commiss ion for

Europe (ECE) Task Force on M a p - p ing Geographical Areas where Cr i t i ca l Ac id Loads o n Forests and Lakes are Exceeded.

A one-year s tudy agreement has been signed w i t h the V . M . Glushkov Ins t i t u te o f Cvbernet ics o f the Ukra i - n ian Academy o f Sciences in K iev . USSR, suppor ted by t he Academy o f Sciences o f t he USSR, for the adap ta t i on t o the USSR o f the m i - c rocomputer version o f R A I N S . T h e work w i l l involve several modi f ica- t ions: t o include regional models for the USSR t h a t w i l l t rea t emissions and atmospher ic t ranspor t i n finer detai l ; t o develop and d is t r ibu te a Russian-language version; and t o augmen t t he op t im iza t i on rout ines i n R A I N S us ing latest advancements i n decision suppor t systems. T h e s tudy has been agreed upon th rough the Transboundary A i r Po l l u t i on (TAP) Pro jec t and the Adap ta t i on and O p t i - m iza t i on ( A D O ) Pro jec t .

SOIL ASPECTS OF

Advanced Study Courses in Hungary

T h e Center fo r Advanced and Top ics covered w i l l include: I Postgraduate Studies (CAPS) ,

Budapest , Hungary, invi tes appl ica- t ions fo r an advanced s tudy course it plans t o ho ld f r o m 1-21 O c t o - ber 1990 cover ing soi l aspects o f intensive, low- input , sustainable, and organic agr icul ture.

Field p rog ramming , qua l i ty con- t ro l , i n p u t ra t iona l iza t ion , and l ong - te rm env i ronmenta l p ro tec t ion require adequate i n fo rma t i on o n cli- ma t i c , hydrological , and soi l con- d i t ions and their in ter re la t ion , and o n the mass and energy regimes i n t he soi l -p lant-water-atmosphere system. T h e course wi l l look a t d i f ferent approaches t o t he con t ro l o f the relevant processes, f r o m the s tandpo in t o f their po tent ia l , their l im i t s , and their env i ronmenta l consequences.

Teach ing wi l l b e t h rough a blend o f lectures, demonst ra t ions , labora- to ry exercises, f ie ldwork, s i te visits. and discussion groups. Tu i t i on w i l l be by an in ternat iona l g roup o f professors and wi l l be i n Engl ish language.

soil survey, analysis, mapp ing , and mon i to r i ng ; mode l i ng o f soil processes; t he p lan t nu t r i en t reg ime and i t s cont ro l ; systems for app ly ing fert i l izers and fo r recycl ing organic residues; risk assessment and stress analy- SIS ; t he env i ronmenta l i m p a c t o f intensive, l ow i n p u t , sustainable. and organic agr icul ture.

T h e course is in tended for young scientists keen t o broaden their knowledge i n these areas f r o m the perspect ive o f their teaching. research, o r extension-service act iv i - t ies.

Fur ther detai ls are available f r o m the course coord inator , Professor D r . Gyorgy V i ra l l yay , D i rec tor o f RIS- SAC, H-1525, Budapest , PO Box 35. Telex: 22-7223 A G R O K - H .

T A P has also reached agree- m e n t w i t h t he Finnish Ac id i f i ca t ion Research Pro jec t ( IHAPRO) o f the M in i s t r y o f t he Env i ronment and the Nuclear Engineer ing Labora tory o f t he Technical Research Center o f F in land (VTT) t o m o d i f y t he op t i - m iza t i on modu le o f t he R A I N S code. T h i s j o i n t wo rk seeks t o develop a cost- op t im iza t i on p rog ram for compar ing a l te rnat ive con t ro l measures o f air pol- l u t i on , imp lemented and tested for use as pa r t o f t he Finnish In tegra ted Ac id i - f i ca t ion M o d e l ( H A K O M A ) . (Con tac t : D r . Roder ick W. Shaw, I I A S A )

I n add i t ion , I I A S A ' s Advanced Compu te r App l ica t ions ( A C A ) Pro jec t and T A P are discussing the possibil i- t ies o f imp lemen t i ng a work s ta t i on version o f R A I N S under UNlX (or V M S ) and X l i b (X-windows) graphics. T h e proposal is i n response t o requests f r o m cur rent and some prospective R A I N S users whose in - quiries a b o u t ex tend ing and mod i f y i ng the mode l g o beyond T A P ' S current research agenda. Proposed features o f the work s ta t i on version would include.

Improved user in terac t ion t h rough a largely symbol ic , menu-dr iven in - ter face High-resolut ion, dynamic , color graphics and coup l ing t o stan- dard geographical i n fo rma t i on sys- t e m (G Is ) f o rma ts (such as D L G ) for detai led background maps, al- l ow ing in terac t ive const ruc t ion o f top ica l maps and overlays, zoom- i ng , and a basic set o f G I s funct ions for t he o u t p u t display and spat ia l analyses. ln tegra t ion o f expert system techno logy for h igh ly in terac t ive and rule-based scenario def in i t ion, analysis, and comparison w i t h fu l ly t ransparent database management . In tegra t ion o f more complex nonl in- ear and dynamic op t im iza t i on ca- pabi l i t ies as well as mul t i -c r i te r ia comparison and discrete op t im iza - t i on o f a l te rnat ive scenarios i n a h igh ly in terac t ive decision suppor t approach.

I t is expected t h a t work o n a work s ta t ion version o f R A I N S , apar t f r o m leading t o a new imp lemen ta t i on , wou ld also comp lemen t and b e n e f ~ t the cont inu ing p rog ram o f wo rk o n the PC version. (Con tac t : D r . K u r t Fedra or Dr. Roder ick W. Shaw. I I A S A )

Options, March 90

1 Recent Conferences arising f rom continued forest decline I in E u r o ~ e , based on the results o f I Conference Preview

Planning Meeting on the Study of Water Management Problems in the Po River Basin, Laxenburg. Austria, 9-12 January 1990. Twenty experts attended this meeting to prepare the basis for a jo int IIASA/IRSA (Water Research Insti- tute, Rome, Italy) study. Other ob- jectives were t o review and discuss crucial issues o f water management in the Po Basin; review existing and available models, methods, and tools that may be useful t o the study; and create mutual understanding for collaboration among participants. I t was agreed that the study focus should be on water quality management problems related t o eutrophication in the Po Basin and the adjacent Adriatic coastal zone. (Contact: Professor Zdzislaw Kaczrnarek, IIASA)

Working Meeting on the Mono- graph "lnternational Negotiations: Analysis. Approaches, Issues," Lax- enburg, Austria, 10-13 January. Members o f the Advisory Committee on IIASA's Processes o f lnternational Negotiations (PIN) Project met t o discuss final publishing arrangements for the current monograph. In addition, the Committee discussed the launch- ing o f a new monograph on international negotiations in the area o f environment and interviewed can- didates for the Project leadership position. (Contact: Professor Victor A. Krerneniouk, I IASA)

Evaluationof Energy/C02 Data for the World with Major Emphasis on CMEA Countries, Laxenburg. Aus- tria, 22-23 January. Within the context o f contractual work between I lASA and the Cen- tral Research lnstitute o f Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) o f Japan. some 30 scientists met t o discuss energy and CO;! issues, especially with reference to the USSR and Eastern Europe where economic reforms and the changing goals o f economic and social development now require new approaches t o projecting energy de- mand and supply. (Contact: Professor Yuri Sinyak, I IASA)

Forest Study Policy Meeting, Lax- enburg, Austria, 15 February. Forest-policy experts from 12 countries met t o discuss policy implications

I I A S A ' S ' F ~ ~ ~ S ~ Study report, Poten- t ial Futures for the Forest Resources o f Western and Eastern Europe. (Con- tact: Professor Sten Nilsson, IIASA)

Forthcoming 1 IASA Conferences May 9-11, 1990: RAINS User Work- shop, Warsaw, Poland, organized by I lASA and supported by the Commit- tee for Coordination and Cooperation with I lASA o f the Polish Academy o f Sciences. (Contact: Dr. Roderick W. Shaw, IIASA).

May 28-29, 1990: Social Security, Family, and Household in Aging Soci- eties, Rome. Italy, organized jointly by the University o f Rome "La Sapienza" and I lASA (Contact: Dr. Jean-Pierre Gonnot. IIASA).

May 28-June 1, 1990: Model-Oriented Data Analysis, St. Kyrik near Plov- div, Bulgaria, organized by I lASA and supported by the Bulgarian National Committee for Applied Systems Anal- ysis and Management (Contact: Dr. Vladirnir Veliov, I IASA).

May 29, 1990: Global Climate and Aerosols, Utrecht, Netherlands, jointly organized by Clean Air Netherlands and IIASA (Contact: Dr. Joop F. van de Vate, IIASA).

June 6-8, 1990: Support for Research and lnternational Contacts among Young Scientists in the Field o f New Management Methods, Varna. Bulgaria, organized jointly by UN- ESCO, the Bulgarian Ministry for Science and Higher Education, and IIASA, supported by the Bulgarian Na- tional Committee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management (Contact: Professor Tibor Vasko, IIASA).

June 7-8, 1990: lnternational Energy Workshop, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, organized jointly by the Energy Program o f the Resource Systems lnstitute o f the East-West Center and I lASA (Contact: Dr. Leo Schrattenholzer. I IASA).

June 12-15, 1990: INRIA/IIASA 9th lnternational Conference on Analysis and Optimization o f Systems, Antibes, France (Contact: Professor Alexander B. Kurzhanski, I IASA).

Dynamics and Complexity in the Interactions of Man and Nature, Novum Research Park, Huddinge, Sweden, 1-8 July 1990. This international study conference will provide extensive tutorial re- views o f basic theory and applications, presented by internationally renowned scientists from different fields. One aim is t o make a largely self- contained course/school/conference, demonstrating when and how newly acquired knowledge on system dynamics complexity can be applied in new fields - especially in those dealing wi th environmental issues. The event is pri- marily designed for emerging schoiars (advanced graduate level) who wish to become familiar with the theory o f dynamic and complex systems, and to be shown i ts relevance to their own field. I t is also well suited for established scientists and others who are active in an area where the application of these new ideas is still in i ts in- fancy. Further details are available from Mrs. G. Fornell, lnstitute for Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University o f Technology, S-412 96 Goteborg, Sweden.

Ethics and Environmental Poli- cies, Padova, Italy, 31 August-1 September 1990. The Fondazione Lanza, in association with the Human Dimensions o f Global Change Program (HDGCP), is organizing this international conference to study how ethical convictions and cultural values can affect environmental policies and attitudes a t every level. Special attention will be paid t o the themes o f the theoretical foundations o f environmental ethics; ethics and environmental policymaking; and ethics and practice. HDGCP is a joint IFORS/ISSC/UNESCO/UNU initiative. The conference would be of

. . value t o persons with expertise or special interest in the following general topic areas: environmental ethics; ethics and public policymaking; planning and the decision-making process; public participation; the role o f industry in environmental protection; social justice: and quality o f life. Direct inquiries t o Dr. Peter Timrnerrnan. HDGCP Secretariat, IFIAS, Toronto, Ontario M5R 2S9, Canada.

Options. March 90

External Relations (31 January); t o 23 Soviet managers (6 February); and t o Dr. Frantigek Reichl, Czechoslovak Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman o f the State Commission for Technology and In- vestments (24 February).

I IlASA Books Several information sessions were con- vened during I lASA Director Dr. Robert H. Pry's visit t o Tokyo, Japan. A news conference was held, 31 January 1990, covering IIASA's research activities and possibilities for improving cooperation wi th Japanese scientific and governmental organizations. The meeting was hosted by the Environment Agency. O n 6 February. two briefing sessions were held covering aspects o f I IASA's East-West character and experience. The first, hosted by the Research Development Corporation o f Japan, was attended by 150 representatives f rom Japanese

T wo new I lASA books, now off press, are available from your

regular book supplier or direct from the publisher.

Methods of Dendrochronology - Applications in the Environmental Sciences. E.R. Cook, L. Kairiukstis. editors. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht/Boston/London. ISBN 0- 7923-0586-8.

A wards

Leader o f IIASA's Water Resources Project, Professor Zdzislaw Kacz- marek, has been awarded the 1990 International Hydrology Prize o f the lnternational Association o f Hydrolog- ical Sciences (IAHS).

Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification. J. Kamari, editor. Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht/Boston/London. ISBN 0- 7923-0710-0. corporations and agencies. The sec-

ond, hosted by the National In- 1 Training Course in stitute for science and Technology Policy. had 40 participants. Two I Water Resource I IlASA Report . more news conferknces here held in February at the Press Club Con-

I Management I n addition, the following I lASA report is now available from the

Publications Department at the price indicated:

cordia in Vienna, Austria. On 16 February, members o f IIASA's Envi- ronment Program presented results o f research relevant t o the environment in Eastern Europe and the USSR, and which demonstrate some important relations between environmental conditions in Eastern and Western Eu- rope. On 28 February researchers from IIASA's Population Program and the French National Institute o f Demographic Studies (INED) jointly presented estimates o f the current extent o f Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and AIDS and gave their projections on the future demographic impact o f the HIV epi- demic.

Several other presentations and briefings were made t o visiting delegations: t o Chinese researchers from various universities in Beijing (6 De- cember 1989) and from the State Science and Technology Cornmis- sion (SSTCC) (15 January 1990); t o Messrs. Frigyes Geleji, Zoltan Kiraly, Gyorgy Ban fTy, Erno Raffay , and Att i la Zsigmond o f the Hungarian Parliament (12 December 1989); t o two US Congressional delegations, the first headed by Representative Robert Roe, Chairman o f the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2 January), and the second headed by Representative James H. Scheuer o f New York (13 January); t o a group o f 30 industrialists and managers from Poland and Czechoslovakia

ater resource managers f rom M a l a w i Mozambique, Tanza- nia, and Zimbabwe participated in a training course, 15 January-14 March 1990, organized by IIASA's Wa- ter Resources Project. The course was cosponsored by the Southern African Development Coordination Confer- ence (SADCC) and UNEP. The course covered the concepts and methods o f a systems approach to water management and demonstrated the value o f IIASA's Interactive River Simula- tion (IRIS) software to solve water management problems. In collaboration with the course participants, a prototype IRIS-based version o f a computer-based decision support system has been developed for the Zambezi River Basin. V

Energy Consumption and Techno- logical Developments. V. R. Oko- rokov. February 1990. RR-90-1. US

I Other IlASA / Publications

Executive Guide for East-West Joint Ventures. E. Razvigorova, J . Djarova, F. Schmidt-Bleek. Jan- uary 1990. IR-90-1, 81 pp, $US 150.

For further details contact Robert Mclnnes.

I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s Ana lys i s

IIASAfs ROLE The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a non-governmental research institute sponsored by scientific organizations from East and West. It brings together scien~ists from more than 20 nations and a variety of disciplines. Its purpose is to develop practical options to deal with issues of international importance through the application of system sciences. The Institute's effectiveness is rooted in its international sponsorship and focus, its nonpolitical status, its freedom to choose its research agenda from a variety of pressing international issues, its interdisciplinary base, and its worldwide networkof collaborating organizations.

.,,,ran tom of oil equimlent

RESEARCH Recent projects have included studies on global climate changes, world agricultural potential, energy resources, acid rain, computer integrated manufacturing, the social and economic impacts of demographic changes, and the theory and methods of systems analysis.The basis of IIASA's scientific

Risk Ana lys isse Netherlands -

MEMBERSHIP IlASA was founded in 1972, on the initiative of the USAand the USSR,with the eventual participation of another 14 countries in the East and West. IIASA has member organizations in the following countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Finland, France, the German Democratic Republic, the Federal Republic of Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America.

research is the development and use of computer models to help define how global issuesand problems may evolve in the iuture.The objective is to develop viable policy options that can be imple- mented through international cooperation.

FURTHER INFORMATION Further information about IlASA and its work is available from: The Office of Communications,lnternational Insti- tute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg,Austria.Telephone: (0 22 36) 71 5 21-0.

research - international institute for applied systems ... · typography: linda foith printed by:...

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