resilience to nature’s challenges...this research strategy provides a platform for responding to...

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Resilience to Nature’s Challenges

Introduction to this Proposal .................................................................................................................... 2

Research Strategy ...................................................................................................................................... 3

Research Plan Development ..................................................................................................................... 5

Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge Scope .................................................. 5

International context ............................................................................................................................. 5

Participatory development process ...................................................................................................... 6

Research Plan .......................................................................................................................................... 10

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 10

Value Proposition ................................................................................................................................ 12

Research Plan Overview ...................................................................................................................... 13

Research Plan Summary Tables ........................................................................................................... 16

Priority Co-Creation Laboratory programmes ................................................................................. 16

Resilience Toolbox programmes ..................................................................................................... 17

Detailed Research Plan ............................................................................................................................ 20

Priority Co-Creation Laboratories ............................................................................................................ 20

P1. Resilient Rural Backbone ............................................................................................................... 20

P2. Resilient Cities New Zealand ......................................................................................................... 22

P3. Living at the Edge: Transforming the Margins .............................................................................. 25

P4. Transformative Māori Research: Fulfilling MBIE Vision Mātauranga ........................................... 28

Resilience Toolbox Programmes .............................................................................................................. 30

T1. Resilient governance for New Zealand’s future ............................................................................ 30

T2. Infrastructure and Built-Environment Solutions ........................................................................... 33

T3. Creating an Economically Resilient New Zealand (CERNZ) ............................................................ 35

T4. The integration of tikanga Māori in building Resilience ................................................................ 37

T5. Creating a New Zealand Resilience Culture ................................................................................... 39

T6. Resilience to New Zealand’s hazard spectrum .............................................................................. 41

T7. Resilience Trajectories for a Future Proof New Zealand ............................................................... 43

“Beyond 2019…” – Resilience to Natures Challenges: Phase 2 ............................................................... 45

Research Programme Budgets ................................................................................................................ 48

Overall Budget ..................................................................................................................................... 48

Programme Budgets ............................................................................................................................ 50

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Introduction to this Proposal

We present a new Research Plan and Proposal to address the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC)

National Science Challenge, issued in the New Zealand Gazette, issue number 135, on 1 October 2013.

The proposal is founded on a 25-year shared resilience vision. We are cognisant of international

learning, that a step-change in New Zealand’s resilience to nature’s challenges is contingent upon

changing course from adaptive/reactive practice to transformative resilience. To lead this, new science

is needed to extend beyond the current paradigm of risk identification and risk management. New

work is proposed to promote resilience in governance, incentivise resilience decisions and enterprise

investments and broaden the cultural appetite for resilience, through building combined agendas on

infrastructure, economic and social development issues. The imperative is on looking forward to face

the diverse and rapidly changing demographics and hazard environments of our country. The RNC will

place a heavy focus on implementation and science-stakeholder co-creation to create tailored, shared

solutions and gain maximum impact from science innovation.

This proposal extends from the 10 June 2014 submission, including a full research plan that was

prepared during a structured participatory process involving national stakeholders and researchers.

We address the requirements outlined in the 27 June 2014 letter from Dr Prue Williams by:

Outlining a plan and detailed research programme to allocate initial and ongoing research

funding in the Challenge [this document, from p21];

Describing the priorities, criteria and processes used for allocating initial and subsequent

funding across research areas within the Challenge, including a plan for Contestable research

funding [this document, pp 6-10, with further detail in Appendix 2 of the Business Plan];

Explaining the relationship of the Natural Hazards Research Platform and transition of Rural Fire

contracts into the Challenge [Business Plan, p2 and pp13-15];

Describing what aspects of underpinning science are required for the Challenge mission and

how they will be sourced both within and outside the Challenge funded activities [this

document, from p4, with further detail on related activities on p2 of the Business Plan];

Naming the proposed individuals in the governance and management groups and key

management roles, demonstrating benefit-value of these structures [Business Plan, from p4];

Detailing a reporting and monitoring framework and review schedule for the Challenge,

including key-performance indicators [Business Plan, p10].

Further, we also describe:

Our Vision for a Resilient New Zealand and a connected Strategy for achieving this vision

through the RNC National Science Challenge;

How the Vision Mātauranga vision and strategy is articulated throughout the RNC;

How the Research Strategy and Detailed Research Plan were created through an open

participatory process from scoping to prioritisation, forming a coherent, trans-disciplinary and

compelling science programme.

By building on our portfolio of hazard and risk science with new cross- and trans-disciplinary

approaches, we will navigate and lead New Zealand on a new path in planning, enterprise, governance

and cultural development to become a world leader in natural hazard resilience.

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Research Strategy

On 1 May 2013 Prime Minister, Hon John Key and Minister of Science and Innovation Hon Steven

Joyce, announced ten National Science Challenges. One of the features that sets these apart from

previous investments was described as follows:

“The Challenges provide an opportunity to align and focus New Zealand's research on

large and complex issues by drawing scientists together from different institutions and

across disciplines to achieve a common goal through collaboration”

(http://www.msi.govt.nz/update-me/major-projects/national-science-challenges)

This Research Strategy provides a platform for responding to this opportunity for the Resilience to

Nature’s Challenges (RNC) National Science Challenge, by guiding a new collaborative and negotiated

approach to research team development, research programme design and science-stakeholder co-

creation. It includes the Principles, Vision, Mission and Aspirations and Structure that will lead our

Challenge.

The Principles of the RNC National Science Challenge Research Strategy include:

Respect – to embrace and encourage areas of research that contribute to New Zealand’s

resilience to nature’s challenges.

Partnership – to seek meaningful engagement with stakeholders to develop a combined

resilience vision and produce co-created solutions to fulfil the vision.

Negotiation – to jointly reach common priority goals from diverse aspirations and to target

limited resources where they are most needed.

Transdisciplinarity – to create new science directions and discussions by going beyond

traditional science discipline boundaries.

Vision Mātauranga – to recognise that Māori are the only assured land owner in the future of

Aotearoa and that the potential of Māori resources, tikanga and mātauranga are key to the

success of the RNC Challenge. To this end a complete parallel Māori strategy has been prepared

for the RNC and is available upon request.

The Vision of the RNC is that:

New Zealand is a nation of people who have transformed their lives,

enterprises and communities to anticipate, adapt and thrive

in the face of ever-changing nature’s challenges.

In order to reach this vision, the RNC Challenge has the following guiding Mission:

We will partner with multiple stakeholders to generate new co-created research solutions to inform

“how” New Zealand builds a transformative pathway toward resilience to nature’s challenges. Through

an agile research and engagement team, priority-driven transdisciplinary co-creation laboratories, and

high-quality, targeted underpinning research, we will tackle the “wicked” problems facing our rapidly

changing cultural, economic, built and natural environments.

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Inherent to this mission are our Aspirations:

That the RNC National Science Challenge will become a trusted provider of research and advice

to Aotearoa, including Māori;

That the Challenge will deliver internationally linked and leading research;

That our research interventions and outcomes will contribute to New Zealand achieving a

transformational change in its resilience to nature’s challenges that will be evident in economic,

social, infrastructure and cultural outcomes; and

That we will become an exemplar for the co-creation of science with New Zealanders, including

Māori, for the benefit of Aotearoa.

The Pathway for the Challenge will be through:

Open, inclusive and good governance, in order to lead and inspire others to take up the RNC

strategy

Sourcing the best capability to pursue the research goals needed to support our strategy and

Vision

Bold transformative research that creates new knowledge and unlocks the innovation potential

behind collaboration and transdisciplinary research, including mātauranga Māori.

Co-creation – by developing enduring and meaningful partnerships with stakeholders, we will

develop sustainable and fit-for-purpose research solutions to resilience to nature’s challenges.

The Structure of the RNC National Science Challenge research is pictured below, and further

elaborated in the Research Plan that follows.

The first key feature of this structure is a departure from hazard-silo based research programmes that

have characterised past investments in this area. Instead, targeted underpinning research innovation

(left side of the diagram above) will address key aspects of our lives, such as: culture, governance and

decision making, economic drivers, community infrastructure, mātauranga Māori, understanding our

physical environmental threats and designing our pathway forward. These will form part of the

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resilience pipeline that leads to the second key design element: four transdisciplinary co-creation

laboratories. In these prioritised spaces, the largest resilience issues will be tackled as public-

stakeholder-science programmes. These will be expanded into the second half of the Challenge, but

will initially focus on the most urgent emerging issues in New Zealand’s future and also develop a new

partnership approach for integrating science into Resilience outcomes.

Research Plan Development

Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge Scope

Based on the RfP issued for the National Science Challenges (October 2013) our process focussed on:

Identifying the most important national-scale issues and opportunities;

Building collaboration and a broad portfolio of multi-disciplinary research; and

Deriving a long-term strategic approach to mission-led science.

In order to develop the scope for the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge, the

RfP was used as the guiding document, with an objective “To enhance New Zealand’s resilience to

natural disasters”, broken down under the following sub-areas:

Resilient Society

Resilient Buildings and Infrastructure

Risk Assessment

Geological, Weather, and Fire Hazards.

To accurately scope the new investment in this Challenge, we first identified and recognised ongoing

research work-streams and capabilities in the area encompassed in the RfP. This included the MBIE-

contracted New Zealand Natural Hazards Research Platform, CRI core funding of GNS Science, NIWA

and Scion, EQC-supported hazard research, university-based research and related Government agency

and lifelines-utilities research. The following figure depicts the role that the RNC National Science

Challenge will play within this context of other research activity. To this end, the scoping of the

research plan must consider integration with, and addition to, existing research initiatives, but also

extend beyond these to identify the key gaps to resilience to nature’s challenges in New Zealand and

design new, innovative and cross-cutting research initiatives.

International context

The range of international definitions of resilience is vast. In this proposal, the typology of Handmer

and Dovers (2009) (A typology of resilience: Rethinking institutions for sustainable development. In

Lisa, Schipper, and Burton (Eds.), Adaptation to climate change. Earthscan) was used to define our

paradigm of transformative change. Transformative change is the ultimate means of achieving a step-

change in resilience. International evidence shows this is a long-term exercise, and if rushed without

matching evidence-based science and policy, can lead to maladaption and create new social and

environmental risks.

The urgent need for the international community to focus on resilience to natural hazards has become

a key component of Disaster Risk Management, Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable

Development and Growth Strategies. A series of terminating international agreements (The Hyogo

Framework for Action on building resilience to disasters, the Sustainable Development Goals and the

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2015 climate agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) have emphasised

that research in Disaster Risk Management must directly focus on strengthening disaster risk

management policy and practice. The next wave of agreements will be directed toward transformative

change, and more active pursuit of community resilience goals. Within this Challenge, we recognise

that major resilience initiatives must be coupled with other drivers for change, including social,

economic and political objectives to overcome the great inertia hindering transformative change.

Research across the consortium members of this Challenge has a wide range of connections to

international research programmes and collaboration, which include, but are not limited to: UN

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and associated research unit, Integrated

Research on Disaster Risk; World Social Forum; Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (Australia); Federal

Emergency Management Agency (USA); Disaster Prevention Research Institute (Japan); Geotechnical

Extreme Events Reconnaissance (USA); Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and Pacific

Engineering Research Center (USA); UK Met Office; World Meteorological Organisation’s Natural

Disaster and Mitigation Programme; Global Earthquake Model; Pacific Tsunami Warning System;

Global Volcano Model; Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology; and vHub.

Relationship of RNC National Science Challenge with other research entities in this arena

Participatory development process

During the establishment phase of the RNC National Science Challenge, the Interim Director

undertook a structured participatory planning process to engage a broad research user/stakeholder

group and a large, multi-organisational researcher group in the development of an RNC Vision,

Research Strategy and detailed Research Plan.

Stakeholders/user elicitation

Scoping workshops held before the establishment period and one-on-one meetings with key

stakeholders at national and regional levels at the outset of the establishment phase set the scene and

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scope for formal workshops. Four formal user/stakeholder workshops were held; each was run by

separate facilitators, deliberately using a separate set of elicitation processes:

Prof Shane Cronin led a Wellington workshop of ~20 participants on 3 November 2014,

involving mainly high-level national stakeholders (including MCDEM, DPMC, Treasury, IAG,

Insurance Council, LGNZ, MPI, MFE, MBIE, NIWA, GNS Science, DOC, EQC, Auckland Council,

Wellington Regional Council and BOP Regional Council). Using focus group-work approaches,

Vision statements were developed through painting a picture what a resilient New Zealand

would look like in 2025 and 2050, before identifying the societal, built, political and economic

changes needed to achieve this and finally the key research that would support the process.

Dr Rawiri Faulkner ran a mātauranga Māori researcher and stakeholder workshop with 15

participants on 12 November 2014 in Auckland. Māori researchers and research stakeholders

developed a Māori vision for a resilient New Zealand, along with a Vision Mātauranga strategy

for the RNC National Science Challenge. Further, key research priorities were highlighted to

populate a specific mātauranga Māori research area within the Challenge.

Dr John Vargo ran a Christchurch workshop with two sessions on 21 November 2014, allowing

over 50 participants from a vast range of local government, business leaders, academics, and

NGO representatives to attend. He applied a “six-capitals” approach to group identification of

the key features of a resilient New Zealand. From this, using a scoring exercise, each group

prioritised the most important aspirational feature and explored the research needed to

achieve it.

Prof Suzanne Wilkinson led an Auckland workshop on 27 November 2014 with ~30 participants

from several areas of the Auckland Council, lifelines utilities, engineering and legal consultants.

Using an approach of first eliciting key themes of resilience from the group (e.g., cohesive

society), working groups listed research needs and a set of priorities under each theme.

Prof Cronin attended all workshops to gain a national overview of the stakeholder desires. Despite the

different venues, different stakeholders and different facilitation approaches, very similar aspirations

were expressed of a resilient New Zealand, including the following attributes:

New Zealanders anticipate the natural hazards they face (including those resulting from climate

change).

Organisations and networks for resilience span all levels of government and the private sector,

with consistent approaches that are understood by all.

New Zealanders have developed an embedded resilience culture that influences their decision

making.

Our primary sector is responsive to natural hazard threats and is equipped with business model

resilience tools to prepare for and recover quickly from natural hazard events.

Our communities are supported by resilient infrastructure, and agile, responsive recovery

planning that is organised before future major shock events.

People and communities are facing and debating the difficult questions around sustainability

and thriving in situations and locations that are faced now or in the future with acute natural

hazard threat.

That New Zealand has answered the “how” of resilience from household to government.

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Research community elicitation to develop the Research Plan

Following the 10 June 2014 RNC submission that led to this establishment phase, a writing group was

established with key researchers from each of the partner organisations and other groups of direct

relevance to the RNC area. The initial “Writing group” was made up of Prof Suzanne Wilkinson (UoA),

Dr Tom Wilson (UC), Dr Hamish Rennie (LU), Dr Vivienne Ivory (Opus), Dr Julia Becker (GNS Science),

Dr Murray Poulter (NIWA), Dr Rob Bell (NIWA), Dr Garry McDonald (Market Economics Ltd), Dr John

Vargo (ResOrgs), Prof John McClure (VUW), Dr Jonathan Procter (MU), Dr Caroline Orchiston (OU) and

Dr Tara Strand (Scion). This group was expanded gradually as the research strategy and plan began to

take shape, with further leaders added in key areas. All participants of this core team were tasked

with:

Broadly engaging with their surrounding research communities (in both their organisations and

especially their discipline fields);

Coordinating the wider inputs of their colleagues into the writing and development of a

coherent work plan; and

Operating under the “citizens of the Challenge principles” where individual and organisational

imperatives are secondary to the goals of the RNC National Science Challenge.

Following the 10 June 2014 submission, it was clear that the guiding principles for RNC research were

robust, but more development was needed to form a coherent research strategy that used these

principles. Rather than immediately develop research priorities, Prof Cronin led the researcher group

through a parallel set of participatory workshops with a similar phasing to the user/stakeholder

activities described above. This included:

A workshop held on 31 October 2014 at NIWA in Wellington to scope a vision of what a resilient

New Zealand in 2025 and 2050 would look like, the fundamental changes and innovations

needed to reach this vision and key research questions that could accelerate these. In addition

to the writing team, several additional researchers from GNS Science, Scion and NIWA

participated.

A Māori-researcher workshop on 12 November 2014 as described above, where the main

science group visions were shared and discussed.

The expanded writing group members (and targeted others) were tasked with taking the vision

and outputs of the stakeholder and researcher workshops and identifying project/programme

ideas and brief descriptions (“wiki-stubs”) that would underpin and fulfil the RNC vision and

priorities raised in the earlier workshops. Around 38 programme/project suggestions were

elicited from key researchers interacting with members of the expanded writing group. These

were circulated as blind proposals, with no identification of authors or teams.

On 24 November a workshop was held at NIWA in Wellington to sort, categorise, combine and

prioritise the many proposal/project ideas during group exercises. Prof Cronin led an open

facilitation process with the entire group, running through the research prioritisation criteria

developed in the Business Plan of this proposal. Key exercise outputs included:

o A grouping of similar proposals that can be combined or clustered/packaged together.

o Identifying those proposals that are out of scope of the RfP for the RNC.

o Ranking proposals in the range of underpinning to applied research or implementation.

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o Evaluating the proposals in terms of their risk to successful delivery vs. science

stretch/reward.

o Evaluating the value for money and level of investment that should go into proposals.

o Prioritising the urgency of the proposals and potential staggering of them during the Phase 1

programme (or Phase 2 post 2019).

o Classifying the proposals in relation to the five principles outlined in the 10 June 2014 RNC

programme document (Resilience Success, Engagement, etc.).

During the 24 November workshop, a draft research plan structure was developed through these

exercises (see figure below). This was further shaped by Prof Cronin, who then, using the best-teams

criteria as described in the RNC Business Plan, appointed provisional writing leaders to each of the 11

programmes identified in the fledgling structure from 28 November 2014. (Four Priority areas, which

became our Priority Co-Creation Laboratories and seven Resilience Toolbox programmes.)

Participatory results of sorting, prioritising and evaluating research ideas and initial proposals

Each programme’s Interim leader was sent the identities of the wiki-stub mini-proposal providers and

also tasked to independently form a “best-teams” approach to developing their research programme

and research team. This resulted in draft proposals for each programme area, with some having two

alternates that were later merged.

On 9-10 December 2014, a two-day writing workshop was held at the University of Otago School of

Medicine building in Wellington. During this, each programme writing lead circulated and verbally

described their team and proposal, with the remaining team providing critique, addition and

suggestions for improvements to the scope, team and presentation. Further, overlaps between

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programmes were identified and the service-overlap connections were negotiated between Priority

Co-creation Laboratories programmes and the Resilience Toolboxes. This established the cross-

fertilisation needed between programmes, with toolboxes contributing technical inputs into the

priority areas (as well as collaborating on areas of joint work between them). During this process,

budgets were negotiated with each group, working up from the basis of the professional time and

resources needed to complete the work most efficiently. Previous overall funding allocations were

based on the workshop prioritisation exercise and the recognition of the numbers of wiki-projects that

were combined into each programme area. In addition, during this exercise, programme leaderships

were negotiated with each programme group in an open process, moderated in cases of debate and

uncertainty by Prof Cronin. This resulted in the final composition of programme leads who were

supported by acclamation in each programme team.

Following the 9-10 December 2014 workshop, Prof Cronin has worked with each team to refine the

proposal and prepare a final consistent budget, following value-for-money principles.

Research Plan

Introduction

To achieve the Resilient New Zealand Vision, a coherent, transdisciplinary body of research is needed

to rise above standard silos of single disciplines and communities-of-practice. To this end, the

numerous research priorities and projects derived from the participatory stakeholder and researcher

elicitation process (as described above) were structured in a manner to drive the crossover and

integration that the Resilience New Zealand stakeholders and researchers universally see as the

overarching need.

Transdisciplinarity thrives on crossover, but also requires a fundamental basis of innovation involving

high-quality intra- and cross-disciplinary research. To this end – a structure has been developed that

frames two types of research programmes that are linked to collectively deliver the ‘Resilience New

Zealand’ Vision.

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Looking through the Resilience “Pipeline” (adapted concept of our 10 June 2014 submission). We will

move toward the Resilient New Zealand Vision, through the inner ring of integrative, transdisciplinary co-

creation laboratories, which are fed by intra- and cross-disciplinary knowledge-development in the outer

ring of Resilience Toolboxes and supported further by coordination of research in related National Science

Challenges, the Natural Hazards Research Platform, GeoNet and research in our partner agencies,

including aligned CRI core funding.

The Priority Co-Creation Laboratories (Resilient Rural Backbone, Resilient Cities New Zealand, Living at

the Edge: Transforming the Margins, and Transformative Māori Research: Fulfilling MBIE Vision

Mātauranga) are active cross-fertilisation, integration and co-creation laboratories that focus our

collective efforts on the most imperative resilience problems that New Zealand faces.

These laboratories are led by skilled coordinators and communicators, who interface directly with

stakeholder partners and together source targeted research-based resilience solutions from the

Resilient Toolbox areas. With a concentration on specific and distinct priority target areas for New

Zealand and its people, natural environment and economy, these programmes also implement specific

stakeholder solutions and require, directed, context-oriented research solutions. Hence, one-size-fits-

all solutions will be superseded by consortia of stakeholders and researchers that will focus science to

solve the complex, “wicked” problems that are barriers to New Zealand’s resilient future. Specific,

separate Rural and Urban programmes were developed to recognise the strong differences in New

Zealand’s geographical and sociological make up. The Vision Mātauranga priority programme brings a

Māori focus across all endeavours of the RNC National Science Challenge and provides a critical nexus

for the range of Resilience Toolbox programmes to tailor their approaches and outputs to a Māori

context. The Living at the Edge programme is focused on our extremes, where the high tensions

associated with urgent nature’s challenge issues force pressing and possibly radical solutions,

particularly driven by anthropogenic, geologic and climate change. Living at the Edge will focus on

highly contested issues that expose the “wicked” problems and thus offer both our greatest risk to

delivery as well as the greatest potential for rewards.

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The Resilience Toolboxes focus the best intra- and inter-disciplinary teams to develop consistent high-

quality research solutions for all of New Zealand. Specific tailored outputs, processes and tools are

required for each of the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories, which will be serviced by a common pool of

experts within each Resilience Toolbox. With a holistic oversight between areas, the Resilience

Toolbox team leaders will ensure a complementary suite of outputs, along with identifying knowledge

trade-offs, efficiencies in delivery platforms and application-lessons from the diverse Priority Co-

Creation Laboratories to develop an overall best practice basket of solutions.

Value Proposition

New Zealand is highly vulnerable to natural hazards and risks. Ranked third after Bangladesh and

Chile, New Zealand is one of the most vulnerable economies in the world to the impact of natural

disasters as a percentage of GDP (Centre for Economics and Business Research, 2012, Lloyds Global

Underinsurance Report 2012). Based on data going back to 1900, we can expect on average for natural

disasters to cost this country just 1% of its GDP in any year or about NZ$11.6 billion (Insurance Council

for New Zealand, Wellington: 2014 Protecting New Zealand from Natural Hazards). Hence, if the RNC

programme succeeds in reducing the severity of impacts by just 5%, this would have a total net

present value of $9.7 billion (assumes benefits will be in perpetuity and discount rate of 6%).

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence clearly illustrates the need for resilience. Even with high rates of

insurance and deep fiscal investment, these events have created enduring economic impacts. There

are 26,000 fewer housrholds now in Christchurch than if the earthquakes had not taken place. By

2031, Christchurch households will still be more than 20,000 short of pre-quake projections. This

equates to an associated loss in annual retail demand for Christchurch of around $760 million in 2016,

and $640 million out to 2031 (Market Economics, 2014: Christchurch Population and the Effects of the

Earthquakes. Presentation to MBIE). Additionally, the rebuild costs for Christchurch are calculated at

just over $22 billion ($3.4 billion for infrastructure, $10.0 billion for residential and $8.6 billion for

commercial).

Importantly, there are a number of wider socio-economic benefits of creating resilience for New

Zealand, some of which we have captured in the figure overleaf. While these are difficult to quantify in

monetary terms, their impact will be extremely significant for our overall wellbeing as a nation. For

example, if the RNC programme resulted in increased investment in human capital, which, in turn,

reduced the rising rate of inequality. Cingano (2014, Trends in Income Inequality and its Impact on

Economic Growth. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No 163) estimates that

inequality knocked more than 10 percentage points off the cumulative per capital GDP growth in New

Zealand over the two decades 1990-2010. If the RNC were to increase the per capita GDP growth over

the next two decades by just 0.01 %, this would result in a net present value over 50 years of some

$21.8 billion.

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Wider Benefits forecast from the research success of the RNC National Science Challenge

Research Plan Overview

With an overall budget of $19 million available in the first phase period, this research programme

includes a detailed work plan between 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2019, but demonstrates aspirations

beyond 2019 where, as engagement and research progresses, the work programme will continue to

deepen and adapt in response to user needs. The basic organisational structure of the research

programmes (pictured below) involves two levels of hierarchy, the base-level service-provision of

integrated Resilience Toolboxes, and the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories that integrate and focus the

outputs and solutions of the RNC National Science Challenge to stakeholder/user needs.

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With this investment, the RNC National Science Challenge will involve an overall team of 90

researchers, across initially 21 organisations, including (in alphabetical order): AgResearch, Auckland

Council, BRANZ, GNS Science, HitLab (Chch), Kapiti District Council, Landcare Research, Lincoln

University, Market Economics Ltd., Massey University, NIWA, Opus International Consultants Ltd.,

National Infrastructure Unit of Treasury, Resilient Organisations, Scion, Te Whare Wānanga o

Awanuiārangi, University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, University of Otago, University of

Waikato, and Victoria University of Wellington. In addition, iwi researchers are involved in several of

the programmes, and additional stakeholder/user organisation staff will be added to the programme

as it gains momentum.

Over 29 FTE/year of researcher time will be engaged in this programme, which supports the

development of 20 new PhD researchers in diverse areas of resilience to nature’s challenges. The

programme researchers are 13% at the level of Professor or Principal Scientist, 47% Senior-Mid level

Scientists, 17% Emerging Researchers, and 8% (sub-PhD level) Research Assistants. From the

investment mix proposed (see diagram below), heavy emphasis is placed on the Priority Co-Creation

Laboratories as the key interface to delivery of science. Note also that a significant proportion of

funding is reserved for a contestable process that will boost the capability and depth of the research

programme and also encourage greater researcher participation as the momentum and visibility of

the RNC National Science Challenge grows.

As depicted in the figures overleaf, the overall span of the final Research Plan extends from near the

underpinning research end (Resilience Toolboxes), through to active implementation of resilience

solutions with active community participation (especially Priority Co-creation Laboratories). Evaluating

the risk-reward of the research programme mix, the mid-point of the research challenge lies at a point

higher than average in both risk and potential reward, which is consistent with the National Science

Challenge ethos. The highest risk programme is the Living at the Edge Co-creation Laboratory, where

very contested options and ultimately only very difficult solutions are possible. While the risk to

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delivery is high at this end, being able to solve these critical situations will be key to ensuring our

resilience future. With the impacts of climate change and sea level rise, these hazard conversations

and debates between communities and district, regional and national legislative and planning

processes will only increase in number and magnitude.

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Research Plan Summary Tables

Priority Co-Creation Laboratory programmes

P1. Resilient Rural Backbone P2. Resilient Cities P3. Living at the Edge P4. Vision Mātauranga

Research questions What are the resilience solutions to a range of nature’s challenge-induced shocks for the rural areas of New Zealand? How can the resilience of rural value-chains and the primary sector be strengthened to nature’s challenges?

What does a city resilient to nature’s challenges look like in a New Zealand context and how can we gain agreement on the chief indicators? How can we build a (nature’s challenges) resilient cities future model for Auckland City, despite its rapid “growth pains”?

How can we develop viable solutions for communities living in locations of extreme present or future risk to nature’s challenges? How can we integrate community self-determination and decision-making with district and regional planning process?

How can we integrate and develop new te reo and new Māori understanding around resilience to nature’s challenges? How can we integrate mātauranga into wider resilience strategies for Māori communities?

Funding (ex GST) $1,542,000 $1,457,000 $1,581,000 $600,000

Interim Leader Dr Tom Wilson Prof Suzanne Wilkinson Prof Paul Kench Dr Jonathan Procter

Team composition N. Cradock-Henry (Landcare); H. Rennie (Lincoln U); C. Orchiston (U Otago); L. Langer (Scion); S. Beavan (U Canterbury)

A. Chang-Richards, G. Neef, J. Marlowe, J. Lindsay (U Auckland); B. Glavovic, T. Egbelakin (Massey U); E. Seville (ResOrgs); J. McClure (VUW); Ruth Berry (BRANZ); R. Solomon (Auckland Council)

G. Coco (U Auckland); H. Rennie (Lincoln U); R. Bell, D. King (NIWA); J. Lawrence (VUW); B. Glavovic (Massey U); J. Becker, W. Saunders (GNS Science); P.Blacket (AgResearch)

D. King (NIWA); D. Hikuroa (U Auckland); T. Black (Awanuiarangi), iwi researchers

Stakeholders MPI, MFE, Dairy NZ, Meat and Wool, Merino NZ, MCDEM, Federated Farmers, DOC, LGNZ, NZ Rural Fire Authority, ECan, iwi partners

Auckland Council, Auckland Chamber of Commerce, MCDEM, MFE, iwi partners, Lifelines Utilities, Developers, Christchurch City, Wellington City

Kapiti District Council, Greater Wellington Regional Council, iwi partners, MCDEM, MFE, DOC

Constituent iwi partners (Ngati Rangi, Rangitaane, Ngati Raukawa, Ragitihi), Kura Kaupapa

Milestone 30 June 2017

We have developed an active Rural Resilience support network evidenced by regular activities and an active membership.

We have developed an urban (nature’s challenges) resilience network between the three major New Zealand cities.

We have identified the methods for positively engaging with and testing future resilience scenarios with a coastal margin community facing challenging decisions on its future.

We have developed a set of tikanga based principles to operate as a framework for partnering with four key iwi groups.


A Rural Resilience Solutions toolbox has been completed and is in use by our stakeholders

We have developed a set of integrated, fit-for-purpose toolboxes for resilience planning for Auckland City.

With a coastal-margin community, we have developed a shared understanding of the increasing and compound hazard risks confronting the community and characterised their resilience fabric.

We have documented methods to develop iwi/hapū natural hazards identification, adopting resilience strategies and plans for event response and recovery.


Our multi-scale resilience solutions suite has been developed and we have completed the Canterbury/West Coast case study, with adaptations being adopted by our partner communities.

The tools we have developed and tested for enhancing urban resilience decisions have become mainstream in Auckland City growth and development strategies and planning.

We have developed place-based relevant socio-economic and hazard-risk scenarios and social engagement processes that result in a more-empowered, shared community buy-in to preferred adaptation pathways that are consistent with district planning processes and policies.

We have developed and documented (nature’s challenge) resilience specific te reo and mātauranga that is being used for science education purposes at wānanga/kura/kohanga levels.

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Resilience Toolbox programmes

T1. Resilient Governance

T2. Infrastructure T3. Economically Resilient NZ

T4. Tikanga Māori T5. Resilience culture

T6. Hazard Spectrum T7. Resilience Trajectories

Research questions

How do we build governance, policies and institutional relationships that improve our resilience to nature’s challenges? How can we design decisions around future adaptive pathways that take into account community resilience to ongoing or growing nature’s challenges?

How can we quantify system level performance of national critical infrastructure when subject to natural hazard impacts and cascading impacts? How can we identify and incentivise the resilience characteristics of buildings and horizontal infrastructure? How can we streamline robust hazard assessment of post-earthquake damaged buildings?

How can we simulate the economic benefits of resilience options for nature’s challenges? How can we apply benefit/cost to test alternate adaptation strategies for resilience to nature’s challenges? How can we identify a set of best practice risk-sharing and financial interventions to motivate resilience?

How can we incorporate traditional Māori planning techniques and environmental management tools into nature’s hazard resilience options for the future? How can strategic investment prioritisation into Māori assets build resilience to nature’s challenges?

How can we create a resilience (to nature’s challenges) culture in all walks of life in New Zealand? What are the social norms around resilience to nature’s challenge and what factors influence them changing? How can we apply the development of information and communication technologies to drive change toward a resilience culture?

How can we express consistent hazard information to stakeholders for adaptation decisions for both low-magnitude, high-frequency AND high-magnitude, low-frequency hazards? How do we take a full scoping view of the hazard that a community may face now and in the future?

How can we measure the progress of improvement in our resilience to nature’s challenges? What are resilience trajectories that we should strive for and what data do we need to collect to identify and track these? What does a resilience (to nature’s challenges) WOF look like and can it be used to promote resilience decision-making?

Funding (ex GST) $1,372,500 $1,721,500 $1,371,000 $1,133,500 $1,546,000 $1,353,500 $922,000

Interim Leader Dr Vivienne Ivory Dr Ken Elwood Dr Garry McDonald Dr Dan Hikuroa Dr Julia Becker Dr Tara Strand Dr John Vargo

Team composition

B. Glavovic, P. Schneider (Massey U), J. Vargo (ResOrgs), J. Lawrence (VUW), L. Langer, R. Parker (Scion), J. Thomas, R. Profitt, M. Trotter (Opus), I. White (U Waikato)

B. Bradley, M. Cubrinowski, G. McRae, S. Giovinazzi (U Canterbury), S. Costello, L. Wotherspoon, L. Murphy (U Auckland), A. King, SR. Uma, M. Gerstenberger (GNS Science), G. Beattie (BRANZ), R. Fairclough (Infrastructure Unit), D. Brunsdon (ResOrgs)

I. Noy (VUW), N. Smith, C. Murray (Market Economics), C. Saunders (Lincoln U), L Timar (GNS Science), J. Monge (Scion)

J. Procter, A. Bennet, J. Hudson (Massey U), C. Kenney (GNS Science/Massey U), S. Lambert (Lincoln U), D. Hikuroa (U Auckland), D. King (NIWA), R. Profitt (Opus), G. Harmsworth (Landcare)

C. Orchiston, V. Ivory (U Otago), J. McClure, W. Abrahamse, R. Fischer (VUW), D. Johnston (GNS Science/Massey U), A. Beatson (Opus)

M. Gerstenberger, A. King, N. Horspool (GNS Science), G. Smart (NIWA), M. Bebbington (Massey U), T. Davies, M. Quigley (U Canterbury)

J. Stevenson (ResOrgs), V. Ivory, C. Bowie (Opus).

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Stakeholders LGNZ, NZ Property Council, DOC, NZ Fire Service, NZ Planning Inst., MCDEM, Regional and District Councils, MFE

NHRP, National Infrastructure Unit, National Lifelines Group, BRANZ, Utilities companies, MBIE

Treasury – National Infrastructure Unit, MoT, MFE, NZTA, CDEM, Councils, infrastructure providers, Economic Development Agencies, Business Associations, Iwi businesses

Iwi/hapū associated with each of the Māori researchers, Post-Treaty settlement Governance entities, Māori Land trusts

Public, MCDEM, EQC, National Rural Fire Authority, Local government

ECan, MCDEM, DOC, NZ Rural Fire Authority, Regional and District Councils, Ngai Tahu

Statistics New Zealand, CERA, CCC, U Canterbury, GeoNet, LINZ, MCDEM, MFE, MPI, District and Regional Councils


We will have identified and documented the components of resilient community decision-making around nature’s challenges in New Zealand.

We have developed methodology for incorporating downstream impacts in risk assessments and investment cases for critical infrastructure.

We have created an interface between MERIT (economics of resilient infrastructure) and RiskScape models to enable rapid assessment of economic consequences of resilience building initiatives.

We will have developed a framework to support Māori groups to undertake their own monitoring, adaptation and decision making strategies around nature’s challenges.

We have identified how social norms operate to create a resilience culture, and where opportunities exist for addressing barriers to positive change.

We have developed a method for comparing and communicating the collective hazard of differing hazard types and frequency/magnitude properties and our stakeholders are applying this approach to their decisions.

We have developed and tested a Resilience (to nature’s challenges) Pathway Heuristic tool to analyse, define and assess resilience.


We will know where New Zealand can most effectively address the institutional enablers and barriers to resilience so that current and future generations can thrive.

We have delivered a rating system for buildings that is easily understood from the level of financers through to the public to make informed choices about the required service level of infrastructure.

We have developed a benefit-cost approach to support business case analysis for alternative resilience options for nature’s challenges.

Several iwi researchers have successfully applied resilience adaptation strategies for their communities, using principles of kaitiakitangata and mātauranga.

Stakeholders have adopted our approaches and tools developed via emerging information technologies to promote more resilient communities.

Our Canterbury/West Coast rural hazard spectrum study has shown how a range of “common” to rare hazards can be integrated into assessments and mitigation decision-making strategies.

We have produced a resilience information system that aggregates, organises, and facilitates sharing of pertinent resilience data to support including resilience pathway monitoring and enhancement tools.

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A spectrum of methods have been developed to engage New Zealanders in making decisions about future possibilities for resilience to natural hazards, in the context of their communities and locations.

We have constructed a “national report card” on natural hazard resilience of physical infrastructure, enabling nationwide multi-hazard prioritization.

We have developed a toolkit for best-practice risk sharing and alternative financial interventions for resilience to nature’s challenges.

We have developed methods for the economic analysis of adaptation options to support Māori business/iwi organisations to build resilience to nature’s challenges.

We have developed tailored approaches leading to measurable changes toward a resilience culture in case study communities with different characteristics.

We have developed and implemented a tool for multiple hazard types and scales for a region and this method is being expanded by other stakeholders in other parts of New Zealand.

Our stakeholders are piloting a prototype Resilience WOF “app” or equivalent software, applied to assess the resilience of a high priority community or sector, including actionable strategies for resilience improvement.

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Detailed Research Plan

Priority Co-Creation Laboratories

P1. Resilient Rural Backbone

Interim Leader: Dr Tom Wilson

This Priority Co-Creation Laboratory will broker innovative solutions for enhancing the resilience of

rural New Zealand, recognising its unique contribution to our national identity and its pivotal

economic function. A resilient rural backbone will be built via:

Developing an integrated framework for assessing resilience across rural value chains: from

households to regions and small to global-scale agribusinesses;

Producing tools for resilience-interventions and defining opportunities, through comprehensive

scenario activities with key sectors, communities and regions; and

Building a researcher-stakeholder co-creation team and outreach network as ‘honest brokers’

for policy and practice leadership via new networks and through chains of land care, disaster

management and other farming, tourism and rural community initiatives.

These outcomes will fast-track resilient solutions for multiple hazards into the New Zealand rural

context.

Fit to the Resilient New Zealand Vision

The ongoing drivers towards more intensive modes of agricultural production have connected rural

communities and economies (including agribusiness and tourism) to global capital, resources,

environmental and social change. This system operates within complex interacting financial, climatic

and environmental shocks and stressors. A resilient New Zealand will require innovative and enduring

solutions to ride out the shocks induced by nature’s challenges. This programme will deliver the

research required to enhance rural resilience across social, ecological and economic domains, at

multiple scales to help build a thriving future for our rural sector.

Methods

Co-production of resilience solutions will ensure greater alignment with users’ needs by identifying

and targeting knowledge gaps at the outset of the research. This research will coordinate resources

from cross-cutting Resilience Toolbox programmes, to foster collaboration and co-operation across

disciplinary boundaries, and utilise project resources efficiently. There are two interrelated work

streams:

Resilience Solutions for Rural New Zealand: will co-produce and broker innovative solutions for

enhancing the resilience of rural New Zealand. Rural communities are vulnerable to a range of slow

and rapid-onset hazards, including climatic and geophysical hazards. Critical infrastructure, such as

roads, rail and telecommunications provide vital social and economic functions, both before, during

and following hazard events; however, limited research has been carried out on how to improve

these, within a rapidly changing rural landscape in New Zealand.

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The project will also complement work being developed in other National Science Challenges,

including BioHeritage, Our Land and Water, and Deep South’s focus on enhanced modelling of climatic

extremes.

Three case studies will be developed: one in a rural-urban interface community with rapid

development in rural and peri-urban areas; another in a Māori case-community; and the third in a

rural community that is dependent almost entirely on primary production, with little economic

diversification.

Multi-level Resilience: will develop and apply an integrated, analytical framework for promoting

resilience at multiple scales across rural value chains. It will showcase the economic consequences of

resilience initiatives for agri- and tourism businesses under multi, cascading and creeping natural

hazard events.

The Manawatu floods, Canterbury Earthquake Sequence and Otago snowstorm were all recent hazard

events with significant impacts from individual households to large agribusinesses. A “value-chain

approach” will be used to optimise solutions for the interconnected risks faced by rural businesses.

Environmental risks and hazards affect rural operators beyond corporate, regional and national

boundaries, requiring lifecycle thinking and analysis, and creative collaboration.

The project will provide an economic value proposition for resilience initiatives through time and

across space utilising RiskScape and “MERIT” (Economics of Resilient Infrastructure) models. Drawing

on Resilience Toolboxes, incentives and behaviour of economic agents toward resilience will be

highlighted, with particular focus on post-event recovery. The first case-study region will be

Canterbury-West Coast, with its complex hazardscape, diverse rural communities and nationally

significant infrastructure. Environment Canterbury will co-lead this initiative, which is also supported

by Fonterra, Westland Milk Products, Synlait and Merino NZ. Later case-studies will extend learning to

other natural and social environments with high-priority research needs such as the Hawke’s Bay

region. Further, agribusiness case study (dairy, high-value horticulture, forestry) will focus on a

comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing value chain resilience from farm, orchard and

forest to regional processing and distributions to policy.

Science Stretch

The programme is positioned at the leading edge of rural risk and hazards research through the use of

a multi-hazard, transdisciplinary and co-production approach. It will address a historical lack of

research and policy attention on natural hazard resilience in rural New Zealand.

Best teams

This facilitated collaboration will be led by Dr Tom Wilson (University of Canterbury) and Dr Nick

Cradock-Henry (Landcare Research). They will be supported by a core team of researchers sourced

from Scion (Lisa Langer), Lincoln University (Hamish Rennie), University of Otago (Caroline Orchiston),

GNS Science (Andrew King), NIWA (Graeme Smart), ResOrgs (John Vargo), University of Canterbury

(Sarah Beavan) and Market Economics Ltd (Nicky Smith). The team has expertise in complex hazards,

ecological economics, social science, planning, resilience science, rural infrastructure, and community

and Māori engagement.

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Key Partners and Engagement Plan

Following a rigorous and systematic process of stakeholder identification, a Rural Resilience

Symposium will be hosted in year one to launch a “Rural Resilience Community of Practice Network”

to engage with key partners over the life of the Challenge (including Ministry for Primary Industries

(MPI), Ministry for the Environment (MFE), Dairy NZ, Meat and Wool, Merino NZ, Federated Farmers,

Local Government NZ, NZ Rural Fire Authority, Department of Conservation, etc.). Laboratory team

members will start with existing stakeholders and expand this group using social network analysis to

integrate private, public and influential industrial stakeholders.

Dedicated Rural Resilience to Nature’s Challenges stakeholder reference groups will provide regular,

engaged feedback, ensuring optimal collaborative and sustainable generation and application of

resilience solutions for Rural New Zealand. We will hold an annual Rural Resilience Symposium with

key science providers and end-users, including key international partners. This will help shape and

refocus research needs. A range of engagement methods (formal, informal, face-to-face, via email,

newsletter, web-based facilities, Facebook, blogs, webinars, interactive visualisations, apps, video,

etc.) will be used to share knowledge, data and information on rural risks, hazards and interventions. A

long-term, collaborative learning process that enhances capacity to generate, share and apply

resilience solutions with stakeholders is central to the programme.

Inputs required from the Resilience Toolbox Programmes

Toolbox Programme Requirements

T1 Resilient Governance Integration with whole programme development, application and evaluation

T2 Infrastructure and

Built Environment

Solutions

Integration with Rural Resilience Solutions

Multi-scale Resilience including underpinning infrastructure

T3 Economically Resilient

New Zealand

Integration with Rural Resilience Solutions development, application and

evaluation, including ‘Resilience Accounting (at farm system level)’

Key supporting Toolbox for Multi-scale Resilience work stream, including

‘Valuing Resilience Initiatives’

T4 Tikanga Māori Integration with Rural Resilience Solutions development, application and

evaluation.

Comparative study of Māori rural business (linked with T3)

T5 Creating a Resilience

Culture

Integration with whole programme development, application and evaluation

T6 Resilience to New

Zealand’s hazard

spectrum

Quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment of rural environments

Cascading, slow and rapid onset, multi-hazard scenario development (inputs)

T7 Resilience Trajectories Suite of resilience indicators customised for Rural Resilience Solutions,

tracked with changing demographics, investment patterns etc.

P2. Resilient Cities New Zealand

Interim Leader: Professor Suzanne Wilkinson

This Priority Co-Creation Laboratory will integrate, implement and build onto the knowledge and tools

created in the Resilience Toolboxes to enable cities in New Zealand to adapt and transform with urban

change whilst building their resilience to nature’s challenges. Resilient cities will be built via:

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Developing a framework for evaluating what a city resilient to natural hazards looks like in the

New Zealand context and an inter-city expertise network to assist on its achievement; and

Working with the case study of Auckland City to develop a Resilient Cities model, focussing

particularly on the issues of building resilience to nature’s challenges into the rapid growth-

plans and growth pains of the city, including major nationally significant investments in

transport and housing.

Nature’s challenges are compounded in densely packed communities, economies, organisations and

infrastructure within rapidly changing urban environments. As space and land become highly valued,

communities, infrastructure and buildings are developed on the fringes of a city, and cities, such as

Auckland, are increasingly enacting urban intensification programmes. Resilience implementation has

always lagged rapid urban growth in New Zealand, generating unsustainable communities and

supporting infrastructure outcomes in the face of nature’s challenges.

Achieving resilience whilst managing rapid growth is at the heart of the complex problems tackled in

this laboratory programme. New Zealand needs a resilience network connecting our main centres and

this research laboratory will integrate its activities with those in Wellington and Christchurch, both

participants in the Rockfeller 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) programme. At the core of this programme

we will develop the nexus between scientists and a diverse network of stakeholders to achieve

Resilient Cities New Zealand.


This research reaches to the centre of the Resilient New Zealand vision by targeting solutions to our

increasingly urban population base and lifestyles. Using the inputs from the multiple inter-disciplinary

Resilience Toolboxes, this Co-Creation laboratory will provide the tools and strategies for our fast-

growing and/or rapidly changing urban areas to thrive in the face of nature’s challenges, despite

changing needs, populations and urban forms. Auckland is the fastest growing urban environment in

New Zealand (hosting more than 60% of New Zealand’s growth over the next 30 years). It is also prone

to a wide range of natural hazards, with a range of frequencies, magnitudes and cascading chains of

impact. These impact a diverse range of ethnicities, networks, age-groups and wealth. Auckland

Council’s 30-year plan incorporates resilience aspirations and Strategic Direction 12 aims to “plan,

deliver and maintain quality infrastructure to make Auckland liveable and resilient”.

Methods

Leveraging off national and international expertise in developing resilience for New Zealand cities, we

will develop a science-stakeholder co-laboratory responsible for resilient urban environments

throughout New Zealand. We will examine comparative international cities to interrogate new and

successful approaches to the complex problem of urban change in relation to natural hazard and risk.

Another focus will be in conjunction with the Resilience Trajectories Toolbox team on refining and

rationalising the 100Resilient Cities indicators for New Zealand cities. Further, the 100Resilient Cities

network will be used to identify the most comparative cases that we can use for deeper learning

linkages. This includes translating and developing tools that incorporate Vision Mātauranga. This work

will be carried out in two interrelated streams.

Resilient Cities in New Zealand will develop a consensus of solutions that will create a New Zealand

city resilient to nature’s challenges. We will be use co-design, co-production, and co-implementation

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methodology for developing the consensus with national stakeholders. This will be used to create a

translation interface between different agencies involved within and outside of international resilient

cities’ initiatives. The consensus of most appropriate resilience tools, measures and indicators for New

Zealand will underpin sustainable plans for transformational change. At the end of year two, we will

have the connections in place and the key stakeholders involved linking the main cities in New Zealand

with the science.

This work will initially (during Phase 1) focus on our largest city, Auckland, with resilience success

having a direct national flow-on impact. Auckland also highlights the most intense focus on large-scale

rapid growth, wealth spread and vulnerability. Its large geographic spread, natural environment and

social diversity, overprinted with rapid growth, bring about the potential for poor resilience outcomes.

Using the basis of the aspirational Auckland Council’s Strategic Plan, we will partner with Auckland City

partners to place the Plan under a resilience “lens”. Using the MERIT (Economics of Resilient

Infrastructure) model and RiskScape we will trace future land use under planned scenarios of

population and economic growth, including testing longer-term simulated environments in Auckland,

reporting key resilience measures for the different options. This will include social, built environment

and economic aspects. An action research approach will be used to enable planners and policy makers

to intervene, and test alternative resilience-pathways and simulate resilient city trajectories and

transition steps.

Resilient Urban Societies will catalyse changes at a local level and assist with resilience initiatives at

community level. This will address the common disconnects between national level, regional level and

intra-city level plans and policies with respect to nature’s challenges. We will focus on a range of

settings (such as vulnerable communities, rapid growth communities and demographically changing

communities), which have different levels of resilience understanding and needs. We will scope how

decision-making affects communities and how they can be empowered to be active actors in building

resilience to nature’s challenges. Working with Councils and communities, we will use science to bring

the multiple levels of organisational hierarchy together (planning with community) to build

connectedness, including understanding changing Māori demographics and the impact of the changes

on the future resilience of our cities.

This programme, focusing on resilience to nature’s challenges, will closely work with other initiatives

that look at other aspects of health and social resilience in urban settings, such as the University of

Otago Resilient Urban Futures Programme and National Science Challenge 11 (Building Better Homes,

Towns and Cities).

Science Stretch

Resilience in the context of cities is often focussed on the inherent issues around providing lifeline

services, housing, employment and environmental amenities for high-density populations. With rapid

population growth, these issues come to the forefront of political and social agendas. The stretch

provided here is to bring resilience to nature’s challenges to the forefront as an equal consideration in

urban planning, development, design and decision-making. Science and its co-development and

implementation will be a key to incentivising and designing the blueprints for sustainable growth and

urban change.

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Best teams

The multi-organisational team (University of Auckland, Opus, Victoria University of Wellington, Market

Economics, Massey University, Resilient Organisations, BRANZ) all have partners and wide

stakeholder/user networks. The group is led by Prof Suzanne Wilkinson, and includes Auckland Council

researchers (Regan Solomon), civil engineers and urban specialists (Dr Alice Chang-Richards, Dr

Temitope Egbelakin, Ruth Berry), planners (Prof Bruce Glavovic,), social scientists (Prof John McClure,

Dr Jay Marlowe, Prof Andreas Neef), economics (Dr Garry McDonald), hazard specialists (Dr Jan

Lindsay) and risk strategies (Dr Erica Seville).


Key to this work is the involvement with Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch Councils, including

developing relationships with Chief Resilience Officers and Council staff. We will be working with

International Resilient Cities’ initiatives and Property Council, Planners, Engineers and Developers, the

Auckland Māori Statutory Board along with a host of government agencies, such as MCDEM and MFE.

Inputs required from Resilience Toolbox programmes


T1 Resilient Governance Recommend decision-making structures that enhance resilience thinking and improve resilience decision making at local and regional levels

T2 Infrastructure and Built Environment Solutions

Integrate the growth of the built environment and infrastructure decision

making tools to assist with implementing long term development plans to

increase resilience of the city

Multi-scale Resilience including underpinning infrastructure

TB3 Economically Resilient New Zealand

Use the MERIT model for Auckland and other regions to understand the

economic impacts of hazard

T4 Tikanga Māori Examine the effects of rapid urbanisation on urban Māori community

resilience

T5 Creating a Resilience Culture

Understand the cultural aspects of Auckland, and the impact that changing

cultures under growth/ decline has on resilience

T6 Resilience to New Zealand’s hazard spectrum

Link with urban hazard tools including DEVORA (Volcanic Risk Programme for Auckland), Wellington, It’s Our Fault (earthquake risk programme), and RiskScape to provide hazard and risk exposure information to improve application of the Auckland plan

Examine cascading, slow and rapid onset, multi-hazard scenario development for urban centres

T7 Resilience trajectories Apply and refine these in an Auckland setting to show how the city is

responding/improving and to inform decision making – also test in other

cities

P3. Living at the Edge: Transforming the Margins

Interim Leader: Professor Paul Kench

This Priority Co-creation Laboratory programme will lead to tangible viable and acceptable solutions to

transform communities living in highly vulnerable settings. It will apply tools and processes from the

Resilience Toolboxes in the context of acute sites facing nature’s challenges using action research

studies. Underpinning this, we will use a participatory approach to develop pathways that enable

communities to resolve intense conflicts in high-risk locations, especially those exacerbated by

26

changing climate, environment and land-development scenarios. The solutions created will empower

New Zealand communities to be risk-aware, agile participants in decision-making and developing a

resilient future. Stakeholders will produce a shared understanding and a set of strategies to build

resilience that are integrated with planning processes and support integrated governance systems at

multiple hierarchical levels.

Communities living at ‘The Edge’ are those located in highly dynamic physical settings (e.g., coastal

margins, flood plains) that are highly vulnerable to a range of nature’s challenges. New Zealand is

characterised by many of these communities with several exemplars that have are already highly

publicised. These communities face intensification and acceleration of the future risk trajectory with

sea-level rise, climate change and a corresponding amplification of conflicts on when and how to

adapt.


This laboratory programme will showcase the transdisciplinary research needed to tackle areas where

unsustainable local community practices exist. In particular it will target communities that are most

vulnerable to nature’s challenges and ongoing climate change in New Zealand, through application of

shared adaptation pathways and integrated with enabling planning and governance processes. Future

risk-aware, thriving communities will be agile and adaptive in reducing the increasing and

compounding risks they and future generations face.

Methods

Multiple perspectives of physical coastal and flood dynamics and community complexity will be drawn

together to identify approaches to enhance co-learning and shared understanding of coastal-

community futures. The method will be implemented by engagement through a series of workshops

and public fora with multiple communities of interest embedded in local community network

organisations and iwi. Participatory approaches will underpin the project, contributing to shared

community - scientific - local government understandings and short- to medium-term strategies to

support community-driven resilient decision making.

The laboratory will initially be developed under one of New Zealand’s “hot spots” of community

debate around coastal conflict: Kāpiti Coast District. This place-based study is highly complex in terms

of the range of hazards present, and the difficult potential solutions. From this site, we will develop a

suite of approaches for application to other ‘edge’ locations. Two secondary case studies will come on

stream from Year 3, one in an urban setting and another parallel with the Deep South Challenge, a

predominantly Māori coastal/river community, to demonstrate the effectiveness of approaches and

lessons from the case study.

The first part of this work will involve building a shared understanding of processes, hazard and

resilience by exploring community understanding and experience of known hazard issues and events.

We will also characterise the social and economic characteristics, networks and community values

that underpin community attachment and resilience at the case study site and that will govern

adaptation responses, which could be developed through learning games, visualisations or

simulations.

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Following this, we will run scenario explorations of coastal futures to model community demographic

and socio-economic dynamics and environmental change across a range of timeframes alongside

community-driven visions and concepts for resilient living at the coast. With the community we will

evaluate the impacts of hazard change (and associated uncertainty) on the setting to co-create

alternative adaptive pathways to achieve a collective vision.

Finally, we must negotiate and build the resilient vision in relation to the current and future

legislature. To carry this out, a full spectrum of technical, planning and transformative land-use

options will be explored to determine their cost effectiveness and the impact and alignment with

shared values. Stakeholders together will develop short, medium and long-term strategies, trigger

points and pathways as part of a comprehensive approach to enhance community resilience. We also

will have a full evidence base to potentially recommend adaptation to consistent legislative

improvements.

Science Stretch

In the New Zealand policy/governance and science context, highly-vulnerable communities “on the

edge” struggle with how to adapt to a dynamic and accelerating natural-hazard risk trajectory and

how to move towards more resilient options and spaces. To achieve this, the evidence base, tools,

resources and mix of governance/policy and local community/hapū decision-making processes will

require a truly inter-disciplinary approach to derive innovative solutions or pathways to adaptation for

the entire community. This research will apply to a range of community scales, community values and

place attachment, and multiple planning timescales with a mix of climate change and geological

hazards.

The other significant stretch is working with communities facing longer-term (rather than imminent)

risk from climate change to negotiate and agree on an implementation of sustainable adaptation

pathways in the context of strong bonds to place attachment, whenua or fee-simple property rights.

This is a “wicked” complex-systems problem that has defied tractable solutions in New Zealand and

also worldwide at a community scale.

Best team

Our team is a strong mix of leading researchers with applied expertise, including Prof Paul Kench and

Dr Giovanni Coco (University of Auckland) in coastal hazards, Dr Hamish Rennie (Lincoln University) in

coastal and water planning, Dr Rob Bell (NIWA) and Judy Lawrence (Victoria University of Wellington)

in climate-change/risk research, Prof Bruce Glavovic (Massey University) and Dr Wendy Saunders (GNS

Science) in resilience planning, Dr Julia Becker (GNS Science) in social vulnerability analysis, Dr Paula

Blackett (AgResearch) in community group function, and Darren King (NIWA) in climate-change

adaptation for coastal Māori communities.


Key partners include the research community, the sector undertaking climate change adaptation

research in New Zealand and overseas, and the case-study community stakeholders. These will include

the existing researchers (e.g., CRIs, universities, research centres or Centres’ of Research Excellence

(CoRE) (if funded, the Hilary Institute for Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea-level Research), relevant

consultants, other National Science Challenge teams (especially The Deep South and Building Better

28

Homes, Towns and Cities), central government agencies, professional bodies, iwi/hapū groups and

self-organised community groups.

The team will work with the local government partner (Kāpiti Coast DC), community groups and the

Coastal Advisory Group from the outset to build trust and legitimise the processes towards developing

a shared adaptation pathway. An engagement plan will be developed with these stakeholders to

outline the role, expectations, knowledge brokerage and co-produced outputs of the project and the

types of engagement processes. Similar engagement plans will be developed for the urban secondary

place-based study.



T1 Resilient Governance Emerging planning/policy /governance frameworks that may better support

adaptive long-term planning

Generation of future scenarios to test adaptive solutions


New Zealand

Development of socio-economic trajectories for scenario development

Evaluation of impacts and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies to

support adaptation pathways, value resilience options and evaluate decision

points

T4 Tikanga Māori Māori land-use planning

Effective engagement processes and sharing of cultural knowledge


Culture

Social/community engagement processes

Citizen science


Zealand’s hazard

spectrum

Use of hazard spectrum for contemporary hazard analysis and future

scenarios at case study locations

Spatial analysis of hazards at case study locations

T7 Resilience Trajectories Approaches in assessing and tracking pathways to resilience

P4. Transformative Māori Research: Fulfilling MBIE Vision Mātauranga

Interim Leader: Dr Jonathan Procter

We will integrate local/traditional/iwi knowledge and values and develop and integrate new te reo

into natural hazard resilience strategies. This Priority Co-Creation Laboratory programme will also

provide a basis for Māori researchers and stakeholders to explore mātauranga Māori and explore

more meaningful ways to create resilient outcomes for Māori and New Zealand. This pool of resources

and Māori researchers will also guide other researchers to fulfil Vision Mātauranga (VM) principles

and outcomes throughout this National Science Challenge.


This research will result in Māori (and New Zealand communities) developing culturally appropriate

resilience practices through more effective communication of science/mātauranga and co-created

research. Developing this collaboratory also contributes to VM by encouraging enduring relationships

with a focus on science and practical engagements that will, in-turn, build capacity within iwi.

29

Methods

Mātauranga Māori and tikanga Māori will be investigated within a kaupapa Māori approach in three

streams. Firstly we will investigate the mātauranga of past and present natural hazard events with a

focus on identifying traditional response and recovery practices. This will be achieved through the

creation of spatial and formal models to store and share information. Data will be gathered directly by

iwi researchers and from archival information, e.g., Waitangi Tribunal research, recorded historical

accounts, traditional sources (Waiata) etc.

Coupled with this work, we will apply mātauranga Māori to develop te reo language and vocabulary in

relation to nature’s challenges and the concepts of resilience. This will be designed for use at all age

levels, including school children (Kura Kaupapa Māori). This will promote te reo and mātauranga for

science and resilience principles, particularly in schools that aim to encourage future generations of

Māori into science.

The third stream of research will be to co-create resilience solutions for nature’s challenges that are

tailored to the unique needs and tikanga of Māori communities. Iwi have developed their own

management plans surrounding marine and freshwater environments and these are recognised in

legislation; however, the development of Māori-specific natural hazard resilience solutions has lagged.

The research will focus on methods to develop coordination between Māori community needs and

traditional response and recovery arrangements to natural hazard events.

Science Stretch

The articulation of mātauranga Māori into resilience solutions will require the development of

culturally specific engagement processes and the creation of specific te reo to increase the resilience

of Māori communities. This will also guide and inform other research within the Challenge on

engagement methods and co-created research and solutions with Māori. The most significant aspect

of this research will be to develop effective and applied methods to bridge indigenous knowledge and

western science and create a pathway forward to solve real and present dangers facing our indigenous

communities. This project also directly involves building capacity and capability of iwi in New Zealand

by developing the skills of Māori researchers and researchers from other RNC programmes to engage

directly with iwi.

Best team

These tasks will be undertaken by researchers across CRIs, universities and Wānanga in partnership

with their iwi, including: Dr Jonathan Procter (Massey University) and Ngati Rangi with a focus on

volcanoes; Darren King (NIWA) with Ngati Raukawa and coastal issues; Dr Dan Hikuroa (Nga Pae O

Maramatanga, University of Auckland) and Rangitihi with a focus on flooding. Projects will involve

specific Māori communities with contracted iwi researchers. Researchers from Te Whare Wānanga o

Awanuiārangi (Prof Tai Black) will provide the development of te reo and methods to engage iwi and

transfer knowledge to iwi/hapū/whanau and wānanga/kura/kohanga.


The main partnerships will be with iwi partners to unlock the innovation potential of Māori

knowledge, resources and people. This co-creation laboratory approach will build long term

partnerships between a wider range of researchers within the Challenge with Māori to pursue

30

research priorities that are well linked to their needs. Aligned with the strategy, four iwi will be key

partners to this research at the outset, with wider engagement growing as the Challenge gains

momentum. We will continue to develop new and innovative solutions that can be applied elsewhere

in Aotearoa.

The most significant aspect of this research will be to develop methods to bridge indigenous

knowledge and western science and create a pathway to solve some very real and present dangers

facing our Māori communities. This research should raise awareness within organisations, such as EQC

and MCDEM (and the National Civil Defence Emergency Strategy), to recognise and provide

specifically for Māori.



T1 Resilient Governance To examine approaches for decision making that are consistent with tikanga

and mātauranga Māori

T2 Infrastructure and Built

Environment Solutions

Analysis of Māori infrastructure and interdependencies, in both urban and

rural contexts


New Zealand

Application of resilience accounting to Māori businesses and communities

T4 Tikanga Māori Mātauranga Māori knowledge and sharing methods

Tikanga Māori and kawa development


Culture

Approaches of engaging with Māori around hazard and resilience


Zealand’s hazard

spectrum

Using spatial methods to understand nature’s challenges from a Māori

perspective

T7 Resilience Trajectories Application and refinement of a suite of Māori resilience indicators

Resilience Toolbox Programmes

T1. Resilient governance for New Zealand’s future

Interim Leaders: Dr Vivienne Ivory and Professor Bruce Glavovic

To build inter-generational resilience to nature’s challenges in the face of complex, global change, this

project seeks to address the role that governance, policies, and institutional relationships can

contribute to resilience outcomes. In the face of complex socio-ecological systems, with uncertainty,

turbulence, and contest, there are no straightforward technical or legal solutions to assessing and

managing natural hazard risks. Instead, we must find ways of resolving the inherent conflict existing at

the interface between civil and private actors and networks.

Lessons from natural hazard events reveal what resilient success (and failure) looks like, empirically

and conceptually. These learnings will be used to pinpoint the governance-related enablers, barriers

(and barrier-breakers) for the strengthening of community functioning in the context of major natural

shocks. Governance solutions will be developed and tested with communities and institutions to

identify step changes in how communities and organisations can best prepare for improved risk

31

reduction in both response and recovery, now and in future generations. Outcomes of this research

will promote:

Adaptiveness to local and emerging needs (including the uncertain future);

Negotiated, actionable response by communities to the predictable future;

Self-organising capacity and transformation that safely and effectively leads to resilient

outcomes; and

New legislative frameworks that advocate a resilience approach and not a pure risk-based

approach to management of nature’s challenges.


Transdisciplinary research that addresses the need to enable and empower presently-unsustainable

communities and organisations to make decisions that are agile and adaptive in reducing the rising

risks they face in the long term.

Methods

Co-creation underpins methods at all stages, from the identification of problems, definitions, through

to design and implementation of solutions. The research programme will support the Priority Co-

Creation Laboratories by providing:

Resilience Decision Learning Lessons that will explain what resilient community functioning looks like

in New Zealand. We will take a systems perspective to examine the where, when and who of resilient

governance, calling upon data from national and (relevant) international events. This will include

mapping successful recovery. We first look backwards using formal and informal evidence and

databases to understand disaster events, the governance context, and medium and long term

trajectories of recovery of communities, regions and sectors. Systems methods such as Accimap will

be used to graphically represent multiple factors from multiple levels that ultimately contribute to

successful recovery. We will use these to develop causal models of resilience, whilst incorporating

inherent complexity in ways that can transform how we address resilience across the civil and private

sectors.

From these data we will design future pathways for decisions that can be made now to improve

outcomes from future (and ongoing) events. Using design-thinking methods we will work with

stakeholders and other Resilience Toolboxes and Priority programmes to consider possible adaptive

pathways. We will call on experiences in water management as an example of conflict resolution.

In order for resilience to be embedded in a coherent way into decision making at multiple levels of

governance, this project will develop innovative scenario and engagement methods to help the

difficult conversations where communities and institutions negotiate their own perspectives on

responsibilities and roles when adapting to complex hazard environments. The methods will be used

to guide potential interventions in the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories to build plausible future

possibilities that can be experienced, debated, and tested.

Data from ‘negotiation’ methods can then fed back to governance and policy actors to further adapt

mechanisms, as well improve the empirical and conceptual models of resilience. Research and

industry best practice and technology will be called on to develop innovative tools that can help

32

communities realistically appraise potential impacts from natural hazards, optimise and trial

interventions, and identify gaps or barriers still to be addressed.

Science Stretch

This research stream provides new conceptual insights about how good governance influences

resilience building in New Zealand. The work will unravel resilience-sustainability interconnections;

unpacks the complexity of natural hazard risk reduction and resilience building where multiple drivers

sit behind community decision-making; and creates and strengthens local-international scientific

connections.

Best team

This team brings together expertise in governance, community engagement, planning, community

functioning, and complexity, all under the wider umbrella of resilience to nature’s challenges. The

programme will be led by Vivienne Ivory (Opus/University of Otago) and Bruce Glavovic (Massey

University), supported by expertise from Resilient Organisations (John Vargo), Victoria University of

Wellington (Judy Lawrence), Scion (Lisa Langer, Richard Parker), GNS Science (Wendy Saunders), Opus

(Jared Thomas, Reginald Profitt, Maggie Trotter), University of Waikato (Iain White), and Massey

University (Paul Schneider), along with cross-over researchers from other sub-programmes. The team

composition will ensure effective translation of evidence across national and local scales, and within

civil and private sectors.


Partners include governance and planning institutions such as Local Government New Zealand, the

New Zealand Property Council, Department of Conservation, and disciplinary communities such as

New Zealand’s Planning Institute and Environment Institute of Australia & New Zealand.

The translational methods proposed here will directly engage science, consultants, and communities

in the conversation about resilience in the local context of case studies, with promoting public

discussion within communities through formal and informal avenues. Learnings from local dialogue

can also contribute to national conversations through the Royal Society of New Zealand (Science

Media Centre and Teacher Fellowship scheme), Te Papa and a range of regional museums.

How needs of Priority Co-Creation Laboratories will be met

Resilient Governance will engage with the four Priority Co-Creation Laboratories, sharing lessons on

successful resilience, and then developing ‘negotiating’ tools that can be used in each case.

Negotiating tools can incorporate specific aspects identified within the Laboratories and inform

solutions. The priority projects will provide the case studies for the Resilience Governance Toolbox to

develop and test innovative methodologies for understanding and improving governance to address

nature’s challenges.

This research programme will also support Māori approaches in establishing decision-making and

resilience strategic governance that are consistent with the principles of tikanga and integrated with

Mātauranga Māori.

33

T2. Infrastructure and Built-Environment Solutions

Interim Leaders: Professor Ken Elwood and Dr Brendon Bradley

This Resilience Toolbox programme will build resilience to nature’s challenges in New Zealand through

improved pre- and post-event natural hazard design learnings for infrastructure, the built environment

and the community services supported by critical infrastructure at a range of scales.


In the face of New Zealand’s unique natural hazard environment, and based on scientific and

engineering evidence, this toolbox will enable New Zealanders to anticipate vulnerabilities, and

protect and transform the built environment to support thriving communities.

Methods

The toolbox consists of four interrelated work streams for application in Priority Co-creation

Laboratories to improve the performance of infrastructure and the built-environment in order to

support communities when subjected to natural hazard shocks:

Critical infrastructure “too big to fail” (Years 1-2): by working closely with stakeholders (e.g., national

utilities, ports), and the Treasury National Infrastructure Plan, we will quantify system-level

performance of nationally critical infrastructure when subject to natural hazards and cascading

impacts, feeding into improved design, retrofit and new-development recommendations. Methods to

fully quantify resilience of key infrastructure and trickledown impacts of service disruption are lacking

in New Zealand. Nor are there consistent schemes to measure and monitor infrastructure resilience

within or across infrastructure types. Using these initial results, investment criteria to assess the

merits of different options to improve resilience will be developed. Applications will include key

national infrastructure, such as ports, the hydro-electric network, electricity transmission, and critical

transport networks subject to a range of hazard types. From this we will implement new methods for

incorporating downstream impacts in risk assessments and investment cases for critical infrastructure.

Incentivizing resilience – Buildings (Years 1-2) will address a gap in understanding the resilience

failings of existing infrastructure and the resilience benefits of new technologies in New Zealand.

Without this appreciation, resilience cannot be reflected in the marketplace or insurance. This project

will develop methodologies to classify new and existing buildings, recognising natural hazard resilience

capabilities (e.g., low-damage technologies). Current instruments used in New Zealand (e.g., %NBS)

are too blunt to provide meaningful classification of buildings with regard to resilience and only

consider the building in isolation. A unique aspect of our approach will be the consideration of the

asset function, the community served, and the surrounding site hazards. Concepts will be initially

developed for buildings, but will be extended to horizontal infrastructure later in the programme.

Longer-term research will lead toward a resilience rating system for infrastructure that is easily

understood and unambiguous. This will allow those in the infrastructure value chain, from financers

through to tenants, to make informed choices about the required service level of infrastructure in

their communities and the costs/value of the associated investment in resilience.

Incentivizing resilience – Horizontal infrastructure (Years 2-4): this will extend from concepts for

buildings to horizontal infrastructure, providing a consistent framework for assessment for all

34

infrastructure. This will build on key work being carried out by NZTA, Kiwirail and Transpower on the

Joint Resilience Operating Policy Programme and National Infrastructure Unit, Economics of Resilient

Infrastructure, Lifeline Groups resilience building programmes, and the GNS Science Lifeline

Interdependency project. A key outcome will be the development of a “national report card” on

natural hazard resilience of physical infrastructure, and a nationwide multi-hazard prioritisation.

Post-event assessment and recovery (Years 3-4): this addresses the need for robust assessment of

damaged buildings and infrastructure during response to identify life safety risks and determine the

structure’s post-event fate. For the example of earthquakes, this project aims to provide guidance for

cities and regions facing post-event decisions based on state-of-the-art understanding of probable

ground motions from aftershocks, heightened collapse risk of damaged buildings, and an

understanding of the influence of building assessments on community recovery. The unique multi-

disciplinary linking of seismology, engineering, and recovery planning will result in transformative

improvements in response and recovery, strengthening the resilience of New Zealand communities.

Science Stretch

This programme will develop the first consistent and stakeholder-relevant assessment tools for all

forms of infrastructure (vertical and horizontal) considering multiple hazards in New Zealand. This will

extend all previous approaches by moving from quantifying risk to quantifying and measuring

resilience, as well as considering the cost/value of solutions and community function in the scope of

multiple hazards.

Best team

This team encompasses the key New Zealand capabilities in civil and geotechnical engineering,

lifelines, transport networks, finance, seismology and infrastructure design in relation to natural

hazards from the University of Canterbury (Sonia Giovinazzi, Brendon Bradley, Greg McRae, Misko

Cubrinovski), University of Auckland (Ken Elwood, Seosamh Costello Liam Wotherspoon, Larry

Murphy), along with GNS Science (Andrew King, SR Uma, Matt Gerstenberger), BRANZ (Graeme

Beattie), National Infrastructure Unit (Roger Fairclough) and Resilient Organisations (Dave Brunsdon).


Partnerships with existing research programmes will be exploited to provide input data, including the

Natural Hazards Research Platform, GNS Science, the Universities of Auckland and Canterbury,

QuakeCoRE, Opus Research and BRANZ. Each has current work programmes on elements of risk to

and resilience of infrastructure elements that will provide the basis for this Resilience Toolbox

programme. To ensure that synergies and leveraging opportunities are maximised, we will convene an

annual cross-Challenge researcher workshop.

This programme will link to the following international agencies: NSF (particularly Decision

Frameworks for Multi-Hazard Resilient and Sustainable Buildings); the NIST Centre of Excellence on

Community Resilience; the US Resiliency Council (http://usrc.org/); and the EQ Engineering Research

Institute (EERI).

To ensure that toolbox outputs meet the needs of, and are compatible with, public and private sector

business practices a small steering group of technical experts will be formed from the Treasury

National Infrastructure unit, consultant engineers (including heritage expertise), large infrastructure

http://usrc.org/

35

owners currently engaged in resilience planning, MBIE Infrastructure and Resources Unit, and the

Ministry of Transport.


The Priority Co-Creation Laboratories will be supported by developing performance measurements

specific for their needs, such as infrastructure critical to rural industries or “Edge” locations and Māori

communities. Specifically for the urban environment, performance measurements and

recommendations for infrastructure will help to incentivise and cost appropriate resilience

interventions (retrofits or replacements). The Resilient Cities programme will benefit from tools to

improve post-hazard response and recovery.

T3. Creating an Economically Resilient New Zealand (CERNZ)

Interim Leaders: Professor Ilan Noy and Dr Garry McDonald

This programme will develop economic decision-support tools that enable New Zealand to more

effectively and quickly transform to a nation resilient to nature’s challenges. These toolsets will

operate over multiple scales and actors to: (1) offer capabilities to simulate economy-wide

consequences of infrastructure (horizontal and vertical) failure with and without alternative

mitigations/adaptations; (2) extend widely-practiced approaches/conventions to economic

decision/policy analysis (benefit-cost analysis) to allow for better appraisal of alternative resilient-

building strategies; and (3) identify a set of best-practice risk-sharing and financial interventions to

motivate resilience.


We will provide state-of-the-art economic tools to drive resilience by enabling decision-makers to

build better business and value cases for, and to assess the potential of, alternative resilience-building

initiatives and pathways.

Methods

Our programme, based on a Design Research approach, is comprised of three related work-streams:

Enabling Pathways to Resilience. (G. McDonald, N. Smith, L. Timar) Capitalising on existing R&D

investments we will create (Year 1) an interface between RiskScape and “MERIT”, the Economics of

Resilient Infrastructure model. MERIT is a spatially explicit and dynamic decision support system.

Linking the two models will enable the rapid assessment of economic consequences (GDP,

employment, etc.) of resilience-building strategies through time (1-30 years) and across space (local

through national). Using the Priority Co-Creation Laboratory case studies, we will assess (Years 2-3)

the economic consequences of alternative resilience building strategies and pathways. Specifically,

this will create an evidence base for resilience initiatives for vertical and horizontal infrastructure

under multi, cascading and creeping natural hazard scenarios. We will also adapt MERIT to capture the

behaviour and incentives of community actors and other asset owners toward resilience (Years 3-4),

with particular attention paid to post-event recovery.

Valuing Resilience Initiatives. (C. Murray, J. Monge, L. Timar, C. Saunders) Drawing on international

research and collaborators, and other values-based Resilience Toolboxes, we will create (Years 1-2) a

36

modified benefit-cost analysis (BCA) framework to enable better business case development for

strategies supporting resilience to nature’s challenges. Current debate on economic valuation is

dominated by differences between BCA and economic consequence analysis, calls for consideration of

equity across a broader range of well-being indicators, and the appropriate use of discounting. We will

create protocols for, and test (Years 2-3), alternative formations for resilience-based BCA, while

ensuring proposed approaches are flexible to accommodate emerging science on risk (uncertainty)

and multi-scale (local to national government, infrastructure providers, Māori businesses and not-for

profit organisations). Where possible, resilience-based BCA metrics will be partially populated by the

Enabling Pathways to Resilience work-stream.

Motivating Resilience. (I. Noy) Experience in Christchurch has shown that while insurance and various

financial interventions (e.g., tax rates, tax holidays, regulation) may have a critical role in risk sharing,

risk reduction and facilitating post-disaster recovery, these also have the potential to entice counter-

productive behaviours. This work stream will expand the empirical evidence base for risk-

transfer/financial mechanisms towards resilience (Years 2-3), and draw on the emerging field of

behavioural economics, which seeks to understand the systematic biases, heuristics and market

failures underpinning inefficient behaviour, to propose a toolkit (Years 3-4) of best practice risk-

sharing and alternative financial interventions. Opportunities to test these interventions will be

provided by the all of the Priority Co-creation Laboratory programmes.

Science Stretch

While much hazard-oriented research has focused on the estimation of risk and providing information

on options for mitigation, few attempts have been made to develop integrated toolsets for combining

vulnerability and mitigation/adaptation/recovery strategies within a comprehensive assessment of

benefits and costs. Also, a common limitation has been the valuation of impacts, arising both from

natural events and adaptation/response strategies, only in the context of current economic conditions

or replacement costs of the built environment. Our programme provides capability to explore and

value resilience outcomes under alternative futures, including consideration of how resilience-building

initiatives will help shape socio-economic systems of the future. Importantly, it also extends our ability

to use existing economic models (Input-Output and dynamic Computable General Equilibrium and

BCA) to capture behavioural considerations pertinent to resilience, including understanding how

insurance might be structured to best facilitate risk-sharing and recovery.

Best team

Our team has strong applied economics expertise drawn from the CRIs, universities and the private

sector. Prof Ilan Noy (Victoria University of Wellington) is a global leader in assessing the economics

of natural disasters. Dr Garry McDonald (Market Economics Ltd) has a proven track record in New

Zealand science leadership, commercialisation of research (>$40m of projects) and specialist skills in

ecological-economics, and is co-developer of (with Ms Nicky Smith) of the MERIT economic module.

Prof Caroline Saunders (Lincoln University) has extensive experience in key New Zealand export

sectors. Drs Levente Timar (GNS Science, Motu) and Juan Monge (Scion) are emerging economic

leaders in resilience.

37


We will develop our methods and outputs in conjunction with Treasury, National Infrastructure Unit,

MoT, MFE, NZTA, CDEM, Councils, infrastructure providers (ports, airports, telecos, electricity and gas

providers), Economic Development Agencies, Business Associations, not-for-profit organisations, and

iwi.

To support our research directions we will link with the International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis, Centre for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (University of Southern California),

Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Centre (University of Pennsylvania), SMART

Infrastructure (Wollongong University), University of Tohoku, Critical Infrastructure Program for

Modelling and Analysis (Australian Government) and Infrastructure Australia.


Our Design Research approach will develop, test, and iteratively refine a suite of multi-scale (time,

space and by organisation sector) economic tools for cross-cutting use in the Priority Co-Creation

Laboratories and other toolbox areas. The Enabling Pathways to Resilience work-stream enables

simulation of economic consequences of hazards events (including “wicked” problems, combining

societal and natural hazard events) at multiple scales, with and without resilience-building initiatives

(mitigation, adaptations, and recovery strategies) as co-produced under the Resilient Rural Backbone,

Resilient Cities and Living at the Edge Priority Co-Creation Laboratories. Similarly, decisions of

significance at the national/regional/district/city level and to the Resilient Rural Backbone and

Resilient Cities (including Māori in rural communities) research priority programmes and Infrastructure

and Built Environment Solutions toolbox will be assessed in the Valuing Resilience Initiatives work-

stream. The Motivating Resilience work stream will, under all Priority Co-Creation Laboratories, assist

policymakers to make better decisions about how, and when, to intervene in insurance markets or

implement other financial tools.

T4. The integration of tikanga Māori in building Resilience

Interim Leader: Dr Dan Hikuroa and Dr Jonathan Procter

This research will produce new hazard and environmental management tools and iwi development

strategies that are based on traditional planning techniques that have been successful in the face of

New Zealand’s natural challenges for over 500 years of human occupation.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Māori/iwi are more resilient than other sectors of the community or

New Zealand. If this is case, we will discover the factors that make them resilient and identify the

factors that relate to culturally specific practices and assets, e.g., marae, Māori farms, etc. We will

codify and develop these inbuilt resilience features, while examining factors of resilience and

vulnerability via a cultural lens within adaptive and transformative resilience frameworks. Success in

this research will be the further development of Māori resilience practices that can be applied to both

Māori and wider community contexts in the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories.


This project will develop co-created solutions for Māori community resilience to nature’s challenges by

identifying and applying traditional decision-making and planning solutions. This will also contribute to

38

the vision of building a more resilient New Zealand by strengthening current assets and practices

within Māori communities and businesses to allow these entities to thrive during or after an event.

Methods

The two streams to this research will focus on comparative case study approaches using participatory

and kaupapa Māori research with the tools and solutions developed adaptable and applicable across

Aotearoa as the RNC Challenge progresses into its second phase post 2019 and new iwi partnerships

are made.

Māori Assets: The outcome of this stream of research will be achieved through evaluating

prioritisation of investment in resilience and adaptive strategies for key iwi/hapū assets (farms,

forestry, marae, pa). Māori farming and Māori businesses will be a particular source of focus and in

particular the role these assets play across the hazard preparedness to response and recovery

spectrum.

Māori cultural landscapes and kaitiakitanga: Frameworks will be developed to support iwi to

undertake their own natural hazard monitoring and management strategies through applying

traditional environmental planning methods to Māori land and landscapes of cultural significance. Iwi

(particularly those that are post Treaty settlement) are having a greater role and responsibility in

managing their environments and exploring the mātauranga associated with their cultural landscapes.

Strategies and plans developed to fulfil mana whenua role as kaitiakitanga could be expanded to build

capability to develop guidelines around the emergency management framework. This research will

support iwi researchers to investigate suitable adaptive frameworks. Case studies will focus on

researcher-iwi partnerships applying appropriate methods, indicators (modern and traditional) and

sites to monitor and manage their significant cultural landscapes that are vulnerable to nature’s

challenges.

Science Stretch

Striving to understand cultural, social and behavioural practices that enhance the resilience of some

Māori communities can not only generate new knowledge to support a wider group of Māori, but it

can lead to practices and ideas that can extend to a broader New Zealand wide culture and practice

around resilience to nature’s challenges. This approach to the research will be an international first

and the development of methods to quantify and increase resilience in indigenous communities will

provide a template for adoption around the world. This is also the first time a team of Māori

researchers will be developing Māori specific methods for Māori communities in the area of resilience.

The proposed research will align with the themes of Vision Mātauranga and in particular the key

priority area of Transformative Mātauranga Māori Research.

Best team

The Māori assets team will be led by Dr Cassie Kenney (Massey University/GNS Science), James

Hudson (Massey University) and Simon Lambert (Lincoln University), who is experienced in recovery

and response research associated with the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Feeding in from related

programmes, Dr Garry McDonald (Market Economics Ltd) and Dr Tom Wilson (University of

Canterbury) will provide new models and tools to examine resilience from the economic and rural

management perspectives. Dr Dan Hikuroa (University of Auckland/Nga Pae o Maramatanga) will

39

provide mātauranga Māori guidance. The Māori Planning and Kaitiakitanga team will be led by April

Bennett (Massey University), a resource management planning (RMA) researcher, supported by Dr

Jonathan Procter (Massey University) and Darren King (NIWA), for knowledge surrounding natural

hazard processes, and Dr Garth Harmsworth (Landcare Research) for mātauranga Māori support.

Planners from the Resilience Governance toolbox will also provide input into this research.


All research will be undertaken in partnership with iwi/hapū/marae or iwi organisations, Post

Settlement Governance Entities and Māori Land Trusts/agricultural businesses.

Research findings and methods will also be disseminated with approval and in partnership with iwi to

other research organisations other research streams in this Challenge. Findings will also be shared

with stakeholders, such as MCDEM and EQC, through workshops and local organisations, including

DoC and emergency management groups. This will help to integrate the different perspectives of

mātauranga Māori into emergency management practices and provide practical tools that can

understood in a western science context.

How needs of Priority Co-creation Laboratories will be met

The four Priority Co-Creation Laboratory programmes will be supported by developing and supplying

the tools required by new iwi partners. These new solutions and planning/policy tools will provide an

example and a foundation that can be adapted for differing tikanga and kawa that are unique to each

iwi.

T5. Creating a New Zealand Resilience Culture

Interim Leader: Dr Julia Becker

This project will support the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories by investigating ways of creating a long-

term resilience culture in New Zealand in a variety of settings. It will seek to understand and influence

social norms around resilience to natural hazards, including living with hazard uncertainty, changing

demographics and economic climates. Our efforts will result in resilience actions being prioritised and

integrated into new practices that are beyond business as usual. It will consider resilience for sudden

shocks (e.g., earthquakes, storms, wildfires) and incremental hazards (e.g., sea-level rise). The overall

outcome will be a New Zealand society that thinks and acts around resilience to nature’s challenges in

a far more proactive and instinctive way.

Rather than resist change, resilient cultures adapt to and thrive with change, such as advances in

information and communication technologies (ICTs). This project will seek to create a resilience

culture whereby ICTs are regarded as valuable, trusted and safe means to prepare, mitigate, and

respond to emergencies. By working pre-event to establish frameworks for integrating tools into the

policies and procedures of response organisations, a culture of trust can be developed between them

and communities, digital volunteer expertise, and researchers around the use of social media, crisis

mapping, and crowd-sourcing technology.

40

Fit to the Resilient New Zealand Vision and Mission

This research will develop new means to expedite the development of new social norms of resilience

to nature’s challenges in New Zealand communities.

Methods

Research will build on national and international resilience research initiatives and prioritise five

research areas to underpin a resilience “culture”, defining the best tools and strategies to drive

behaviour change, and the ways in which technologies can be harnessed to change social norms of

resilience across diverse communities and hazard profiles.

Creating a cultural resilience platform: will define and organise the “pieces” that make up a resilient

culture. This research will be informed by evaluating existing New Zealand participatory research

projects to identify past successes, such as DEVORA in Auckland and It’s our Fault in Wellington.

Stakeholder workshops will be used to undertake a gap analysis to identify cultural practice

roadblocks and successes in resilience and adaptive capacity.

Changing social norms towards a culture of resilience: will undertake mixed methods research to

understand social norms of resilience in New Zealand communities and individuals. We will first

observe variation in resilience social norms in relation to other societal influences (e.g., group

dynamics, institutional practices that support or discourage resilient practices, citizens’ causal models

of hazards). Further, via case study communities (in the Priority Co-creation Laboratories), we will

build intervention programme for co-creation to influence social norms around resilience and go on to

monitor progress of these over time to identify opportunities for optimisation.

Solutions, tools and strategies: will engage with the community across Priority Co-Creation

Laboratories to develop solutions, tools and strategies that enable communities and individuals to

understand and act upon hazard and risk information effectively, as per a resilient culture. The lessons

learned from this work will then be applied to the wider New Zealand context.

Emerging technologies: will apply action research, researchers, practitioners, and digital volunteering

communities to jointly develop frameworks for the coordination and integration of social media, crisis

mapping and crowd sourcing technologies. In addition, these will be used to evaluate and assess Civil

Defence and Emergency Management monitoring requirements to support situational awareness and

develop methods for a range of governance and community agencies to apply scientific research

principles to the data collected by social media monitoring tools, leading to their integration into the

policies and procedures of official response organisations.

Citizen Science: will identify, evaluate and develop improved methods and avenues for the

presentation and transfer of our research outputs for innovative information-sharing. It will connect

citizens to science, by supporting and enabling the public to become active participants in scientific

research. We will investigate and evaluate the effectiveness of using a full range of media to approach

public, from app-development to television, radio and web-based approaches.

Science Stretch

This programme will integrate social sciences to develop and implement strategies that lead

communities to prioritise resilience to nature’s challenges in a realistic sense alongside other issues. It

41

will focus on areas that have proved challenging to understand in the past, including factors leading to

a sustainable, inter-generational resilience culture and the use of emerging technologies to engage

and promote a resilience culture.

Best team and Partners

Our social science team has a strong multi-disciplinary approach, led by Dr Julia Becker (GNS Science) a

social scientist focussing on hazards and resilience research. Prof John McClure (Victoria University of

Wellington) and Prof David Johnston (Massey University), who focus on behavioural factors

influencing hazard preparedness, Dr Vivienne Ivory (Opus International Ltd./Otago University) and Dr

Wokje Abrahamse (Victoria University of Wellington) who work on social norms and wellbeing, Prof.

Ron Fischer (Victoria University of Wellington, statistics) and Abi Beatson (Opus International Ltd.

Postdoc) who specialises in social media and disasters.

Our key partners include the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management and the wider

CDEM sector, EQC, National Rural Fire Authority, Local Government and communities, as well as the

Treasury’s Living Standards Framework Programme (Hilary Blake). These stakeholders will be engaged

in the development and application of the research. We will also draw on social change programmes,

such as those developed by the Ministry of Health.

We have a series of international links to inform our research practice, including to UCL London;

Natural Hazards Centre Boulder; NZ/US Joint Commission on Science and Technology Cooperation;

EMBRACE European Resilience research; Australia - Bushfire CRC; and RMIT.

How needs of Priority Co-creation Laboratories will be met

For the Resilient Cities Priority Co-Creation Laboratory, we will investigate urban-specific social norms

and strategies that are most effective in developing community support for a resilient city culture. For

the Resilient Rural Backbone programme, specific methods of engagement with rural stakeholders will

be developed. For the Living at the Edge programme, we will inform the complexities that exist when

trying to understand and solve wicked problems (with intractable solutions) and for the

Transformative Māori Research programme we will provide social science and social norms support

for the Māori-specific research focus.

T6. Resilience to New Zealand’s hazard spectrum

Interim Leader: Dr Tara Strand

This Resilience Toolbox will generate new hazard knowledge and understanding and a set of fit-for-

purpose tools and solutions that meet the community and stakeholder-expressed demand for a

nationally consistent delivery of risk information and resilience solutions across all hazard types. We

will develop new methods to express all parts of the low-magnitude/high-frequency to high-

magnitude/low-frequency hazard impacts spectrum in a consistent way to a range of stakeholders.

This toolkit will further take into account the dynamic shifts that can occur along the spectrum due to

climate change, societal change, and geological activity. We will underpin the Priority Co-Creation

Laboratories by developing better understanding of the ‘what’ and ‘when’ of nature’s future

challenges in a variety of contexts, including cumulative, cascading and unexpected hazards.

42

Fit to Resilient New Zealand Vision

Development of new knowledge that allows the evaluation of the spectrum of hazard impacts both

expected and not yet anticipated in New Zealand will lead to the most significantly enhanced and

realistic resilience discussions, debates and solutions in our communities. This programme will initiate

and support the community led development on impact-reduction solutions needed to build and

enhance local, regional and national resilience by evaluating both their “normal” hazards (e.g., rural

fire, storm), through to their rare ones (e.g., earthquake, tsunami and volcano).

Methods

This ten year programme has two focus areas in the first phase of the Challenge, which will be

developed using deep interaction with stakeholders and communities. This programme is expected to

ramp up to incorporate a much larger investment and a full multi-hazards approach across a range of

scales and locations after the completion of the Natural Hazards Research Platform contract in 2019.

In the interim, much ongoing NHRP and related CRI core funded research will be channelled into the

outputs and work streams of the Phase 1 programme.

Hazard spectrum modelling (high frequency-low impact to low frequency-high impact): will develop a

nationally consistent explanation of risk and impact information for New Zealand. In the first phase,

we will focus on a scenario-based approach case study that provides an opportunity to develop

consistent delivery of risk information for a vast hazard spectrum (from frequent to rare, catastrophic

to localised) in the Canterbury / West Coast region, which aligns with the Resilient Rural Backbone

Priority Co-creation Laboratory. Stakeholder interaction has highlighted the demand for consistent risk

information irrespective of hazard type. Current risk paradigms are based on smoothed probabilistic

outlooks and do not adequately represent either end of the hazard impact magnitude frequency

range. The multi-dimensional dependence structure in the frequency-time-magnitude spectrum will

be applied to the various Canterbury hazards. Innovative new statistical methodologies and co-

creation of new knowledge between scientists and stakeholders (including community members) will

be used to develop events and impact scenarios over time and space scenario. From this we will

develop a nationally applicable framework for hazard impact scenario development and later roll this

out to other areas of the country.

Dynamic Rural Fire (a predictable hazard): will take an aspect of rural fire research mapped into this

research programme following termination of a rural fire MBIE contract in late 2016. Rural fire will be

used to understand how impacts from a low-impact, but frequent, hazard relate to a catastrophic

event, such as a major earthquake. This task will leverage the existing Scion, NIWA, and Rural Fire

Authority partnership and will link with the similarly frequent but better-understood flood hazard

situation, to build a real-time fire and smoke behaviour prediction system that forecasts the dynamic

“when” of wildfire hazard. This approach can be extended to other presently poorly known high-

frequency hazards, such as small landslides. Following this, the system will be primed to link with risk

models for comparisons of impacts from multiple hazards.

Science Stretch

Integrating the range of nature’s challenges in New Zealand in a coherent way between and across all

types and magnitudes of hazards will be a major applied scientific advance and a key component to

developing a realistic view of the processes and actions needed for building resilience. Understanding

43

what the full scope of hazard impacts means for communities and stakeholders is the key to deciding

on societal adaptations and investment decisions around both short-term and long-term resilience

solutions.

Best team

The team will consist of a range of hazard experts, risk researchers, and statisticians including Dr Tara

Strand (Scion), Andrew King and Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science), Graeme Smart (NIWA), Prof Mark

Bebbington (Massey University), and Prof Tim Davies and Dr Mark Quigley (University of Canterbury).


Key partners include community and commercial stakeholders (initially in the Canterbury, West Coast

region), ECan, private corporations, and local and regional officials. Further, RiskScape developers and

users are also key partners. We will have representatives of stakeholders co-creating with us, and we

will engage with the public so they may benefit from the hazard spectrum tools and solutions kit. We

will also engage with the multiple cultures within New Zealand to ensure the tools and solutions meet

the needs of all New Zealanders, particularly tools that are fit-for-purpose within the Māori culture.

Initially, we will actively engage with Ngāi Tahu for our Canterbury/West Coast community led risk

solutions case study. There is synergy between the work we propose and ongoing related research in

Australia (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC), as well as in the State of California.


This programme will feed directly into the Resilient Rural Backbone Priority programme’s case study

and will provide the underpinning new methodologies to support all of the priority areas that are

vulnerable to a range of spatial and hazard-magnitude/frequency scales. In later years, the focus will

turn to providing innovative solutions into the other Priority Co-Creation Laboratory activities. By

providing a new means of evaluating a range of hazard types and impact scales, community decision-

making and incentivising of resilience mitigation measures can be more accurately portrayed.

T7. Resilience Trajectories for a Future Proof New Zealand

Interim Leader: Dr John Vargo

Through a process of co-creation with potential end-users and stakeholders we will produce: a

Resilience pathways heuristic; a resilience information utility that aggregates, organises, and facilitates

sharing of pertinent data to support a range of evidence based solutions for resilience in New Zealand;

and an expandable suite of resilience indicators across the six capitals (natural, social, built, economic,

cultural and political and in relation to Treasury’s Living Standards Framework) that will provide

resilience pathway monitoring against a set of co-developed targets. This programme is in direct

support of the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories and the other Resilience Toolboxes, as well as the

needs of decision-makers at different parts of the disaster risk reduction cycle. Finally we will create a

prototype Resilience Warrant of Fitness regime. An additional outcome from this process is the

capacity to monitor the impact of this National Science Challenge in achieving its progress toward

reaching the Resilient New Zealand vision.

44


This multi-dimensional resilience programme will allow users to identify barriers and potential

opportunities to accelerate progress toward the vision of a resilient New Zealand and inform policy

makers and practitioners of where to spend our resilience 'dollar' most effectively.

Methods

This programme will apply design thinking and work with practice communities to co-create a toolkit

of pathway monitoring and decision support tools, including:

The Resilience Pathway Heuristic: This tool will be developed through a systematic meta-analysis of

existing resilience measurement frameworks from around the world and includes close testing and

cooperation with stakeholders. The heuristic will incorporate tipping point and pareto analysis for

effectiveness in adapting to dynamic non-equilibrium environments. This analysis will conclude with

the development of a heuristic model for defining and assessing resilience.

The Resilience Information System: Guided by the heuristic model, we will identify the data needs for

creating resilience trajectory models and enhancement tools. We will go on to liaise with data owners

and users, and create a repository and/or federated model for accumulating and accessing the data.

As the repository develops we will use best-practice digital archiving and sharing techniques in

collaboration with the Natural Hazards Research Platform and other related National Science

Challenge programmes (e.g. Building Better Homes, Towns and Cities, The Deep South, Our Land and

Water). This will include rural and urban data in support of the GNS Science core RiskScape

Programme and the Resilient Rural Backbone Priority Co-Creation Laboratory.

A Suite of Resilience Indicators: We will use the resilience information system and application

through the key Priority Co-Creation Laboratories to identify a range of indicators for each of the six

capitals and the Treasury’s Living Standards Framework in a variety of settings, linking indicators to

data sources and identifying gaps for ongoing development of the suite of indicators.

The Resilience Warrant of Fitness: In collaboration with our stakeholders we will pilot and prototype a

holistic resilience assessment maturity model developed from the suite of resilience indicators (in one

of the Priority Co-Creation Laboratories). We will assess the resilience of the community or sector

across the six capitals and the Treasury’s Living Standards Framework, including actionable strategies

for resilience improvement in light of the WOF outcomes to attain a given benchmark or maturity

model level.

Science Stretch

This research programme will synthesise and extend the extensive yet disparate body of work on

resilience assessment, address the known limitations of the validity and utility of existing indicators

and indices, and systematically develop resilience heuristics and resilience trajectory planning and

monitoring tools to support resilience improvement.

Best team

This team includes a combination of Resilient Organisations (John Vargo and Joanne Stevenson) and

Opus International Consultants Ltd. (Vivienne Ivory and Craig Bowie) researchers with support from

45

Treasury’s Living Standards Group (Hilary Blake), along with researchers of the Universities of

Auckland and Canterbury and Massey and Lincoln Universities that contribute via cross-over from

other programmes of this Challenge. The research team is directly engaged with international

researchers such as Dr Kathleen Tierney (Director of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications

Information Centre at the University of Colorado), Dr Susan Cutter (Directed of the Hazards and

Vulnerability Research Institute), Dr Adam Rose (University of Southern California), and Dr Chris

Burton (Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Coordinator with the Global Earthquake Model).


Key partners who have committed to participating on a co-funding basis (contributing in-kind staff

time, data access and other resources), include: Statistics New Zealand, Canterbury Earthquake

Recovery Authority, Canterbury City Council, University of Canterbury, GeoNet, Natural Hazards

Research Platform/RiskScape, NIWA, Land Information New Zealand, and Canterbury Spatial Data

Infrastructure Programme. Much of the primary stakeholder engagement for this stream of work will

happen through the four RNC Priority Co-Creation Laboratories. Additional primary direct stakeholder

engagement will take place in support of decision and policy makers.


This toolbox will work in close coordination with the four priority research areas and other toolboxes

in co-creating heuristic, data and path monitoring needs. The Resilience Warrant of Fitness prototype

regime will provide a test bed for key outcomes from across the Challenge.

“Beyond 2019…” – Resilience to Natures Challenges: Phase 2

Background

We have deliberately focused on a detailed Research Plan for Phase 1 within this submission,

focussing on the highest priority research gaps and important areas of additional research, as

identified by stakeholders. It is apparent that the researcher and stakeholder community have decided

upon a heavy emphasis on a mix of social science, economics, engineering and governance systems-

based research, rather than a strong programme of additional geophysical and atmospheric physical

work. This is a direct result of the recognition of the outputs and highly successful activities of the

MBIE funded Natural Hazards Research Platform, and the GNS Science and NIWA core-funded

research and ongoing university research that runs alongside it. These other research investments

provide much of the fundamental data upon which the Phase 1 RNC National Science Challenge is

based. Without the constant improvement of knowledge of our hazard frequencies/magnitudes/types

and locations, we will never be able to gain an accurate view of the range and nature of impacts these

may have on our society and infrastructure.

With the Natural Hazards Research Platform contract due to end in 2019, this coincides with the

Challenge ramping up into Phase 2 with double the funding available. This requires a major re-scoping

of the research landscape. The overall Research Strategy, Vision and Mission presented here are

designed to cover the entire Challenge period; however, the detailed research plan for Phase 2 needs

to take stock of the successes achieved in Phase 1. The main driver for the shape of Phase 1 research

was the perception by stakeholders that the physical hazard and risk data were not being effectively

implemented into resilience solutions. Thus the main emphasis was not on generating new hazard

46

knowledge. Once Phase 1 ends, there will be a need to re-evaluate this and an expectation that, as we

move into Phase 2, a concomitant investment into underpinning hazard and risk research will be

essential to support the next-generation of governance, cultural, engineering and economic models

pursued by a New Zealand that has already moved significantly along the path toward a more resilient

future.

Aspirations

New Zealand will continue to transform throughout Phase 1 of the RNC National Science Challenge.

Rural, urban, Māori and edge communities, organisations and individuals will dynamically grow,

shrink, move, and evolve. This will occur in the face of a changing climate, a volatile international

economy, and continued pressure for increasing economic production and social development. The

RNC National Science challenge will foster and maintain a comprehensive network of agile, high-

quality resilience researchers, who will be well poised to undertake significant new opportunities for

strategic integration of natural hazard resilience research throughout New Zealand. There will be two

major objectives required to achieve this: 1) seamless incorporation of the Natural Hazard Research

Platform, and 2) identification of research priorities through to 2024.

Mapping in the Platform

Incorporating the Natural Hazard Research Platform (NHRP) into the RNC National Science Challenge

before its contracted conclusion in 2019 is a considerable opportunity. The Phase 1 RNC National

Science Challenge activities are focused on addressing predominantly social, economic, and

governance initiatives, as these have lagged physical and natural science. By 2019 we expect our

understanding and the tools available to develop and enhance resilience to natural hazards in New

Zealand will have begun to significantly address this lag. Keeping a strategic view, there will be an

immediate need to continue the delivery of high quality natural hazard research for New Zealand,

integrated assessments of multiple hazards at similar scales, and continued investigation of building

and infrastructure components and system performance under natural hazard loadings. The Natural

Hazards Research Platform research integration will take place within the existing RNC National

Science Challenge structure, and the Platform works-streams are easily mapped naturally to the

existing programme components, especially the Resilience Toolboxes.

Resilience to Nature’s Challenges: Phase-2 Research

The four Priority Co-creation Laboratories will continue into Phase 2, expanding the case-study areas

into national multi-scale programmes. A key priority across all programmes will be expanding the

scope of locality based action-research beyond Phase 1, with emphasises on the development of tools,

resources and strategies applicable and suitable across New Zealand. Particular focus will be on inter-

city linkages and urban-rural and local-global connections.

Expanding the scope of the Priority Co-creation Laboratories will require additional resourcing, but the

overall proportional split of funds between the Laboratory and Toolbox programmes is expected to

remain the same. Evaluation of Phase 1 (2015-2019) of the Challenge will provide the opportunity to

identify resilience gaps, potentially leading to the development of one or (maximum) two additional

Priority Co-creation Laboratory(s).

47

The Resilience Toolbox structure is expected to remain very similar for Phase 2 of the Challenge, but

with the potential for major expansion of investment, particularly in the areas of T2 Infrastructure and

Built Environment Solutions, and T6 Resilience to New Zealand’s Hazard Spectrum to pick up the

underpinning work-streams from the Natural Hazards Research Platform and to feed additional hazard

impact and risk information to the Priority Co-creation Laboratories as they progress.

Further aspirations of individual programmes include:

The Resilient Rural Backbone Co-Creation Laboratory identifies three provisional strategic

objectives for 2019-2024, but recognises that rapid rates of transformation within the rural

sector mean that ongoing stakeholder engagement is necessary to shape them: (1) Hazards

Smart Agriculture within the context of sustainable land management; (2) Sustain the

effectiveness of resilience solutions via longitudinal assessment frameworks with rural

communities; and (3) expand our initial exploration of multi-level resilience across the value

chain to examine globalisation and climate change on rural resilience to nature’s challenges.

The Resilient Cities Co-Creation Laboratory, will expand from its Auckland City strategic focus, to

develop resilience solutions applicable to all urban areas in New Zealand. The Phase 1 tools will

become mainstreamed for enhancing urban resilience decisions. Fit for purpose toolboxes will

be developed for all cities in New Zealand. By understanding the interconnectedness of cities

across New Zealand, we will use best practice in one region to recommend means of enhancing

urban resilience across other regions and cities.

The Living at the Edge Co-Creation Laboratory will expand into linking local to government

(local, regional and national) actors in further key settings where conflict resolution must be

resolved by committed communities, governance and scientists. The focus will shift from not

only current acute sites, but also sites where future development can be influenced in advance

of construction and development and where future climate-change related hazard scenarios will

start in years and decades to come.

The Vision Mātauranga Co-Creation Laboratory will expand to include contemporary Māori roles

in resilience in New Zealand, addressing not only rural Māori communities, but culture, self-

organisation and resilience of urban Māori communities and non-iwi affiliated Māori. Further

expansion is expected to fit with the increasing land, investment and business portfolio run by

iwi organisations.

The Resilience Toolboxes will be expanded in order to support the increasing scope and

widening area of attention of the Priority Co-creation Laboratory programmes. By 2019 these

Toolboxes will form an integrated resilience information system that is agile and reliable,

providing access to a full range of pertinent resilience data, pathway indicators and decision

support tools for stakeholders, policy developers and other decision-makers. As described

above, these will be expanded in key areas where hazard and engineering needs are seen to be

essential for the Phase 2 Challenge activities. Overall the toolboxes will support the ongoing roll

out of a comprehensive Resilience WOF regime that motivates and supports the achievement of

robust resilience targets, demonstrating substantial improvements in the resilience of New

Zealand. Also by 2019 we will have a better understanding of how to develop and implement a

resilient culture where resilience is a social norm. Further work will go into building and

expanding this outcome and harnessing a new raft of emerging technologies to build a nation of

individuals that consider resilience to nature’s challenges as second nature.

48

Research Programme Budgets

Overall Budget

ITEM Details

BUDGET*

Year 1 (1-Jul-2015 start)

Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

(30-Jun-19 end) TOTAL

FTE $$ FTE $$ FTE $$ FTE $$

Governance

Governance Group $60,000.00 $60,000.00 $60,000.00 $60,000.00 $240,000.00

Stakeholder, Māori and Science Review $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $80,000.00

Total Governance

$80,000.00 $80,000.00 $80,000.00 $80,000.00 $320,000.00

Science Leadership

Director 0.75 $240,000.00 0.75 $240,000.00 0.75 $240,000.00 0.75 $240,000.00 $960,000.00

Challenge Manager 0.75 $170,000.00 0.75 $170,000.00 0.75 $170,000.00 0.75 $170,000.00 $680,000.00

Science Leadership Team 0.25 $62,500.00 0.25 $62,500.00 0.25 $62,500.00 0.25 $62,500.00 $250,000.00

Website/public events/shared Challenge initiatives $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $40,000.00 $40,000.00 $170,000.00

Travel/international linkages $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $80,000.00

Contingency $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $50,000.00 $200,000.00

Annual Colloquium $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $60,000.00

Total Science Leadership $607,500.00 $597,500.00 $597,500.00 $597,500.00 $2,400,000.00

Priority Laboratories

Resilient Rural Backbone 2.85 $397,000.00 3.8 $419,000.00 3.6 $379,000.00 2.6 $347,000.00 $1,542,000.00

Resilient Cities New Zealand 2.225 $358,250.00 3.225 $380,250.00 3.225 $380,250.00 2.175 $338,250.00 $1,457,000.00

49

Living at the Edge 1.825 $359,750.00 2.625 $430,750.00 2.625 $430,750.00 1.825 $359,750.00 $1,581,000.00

Vision Mātauranga 0.95 $152,500.00 1.45 $152,500.00 1.45 $152,500.00 0.95 $142,500.00 $600,000.00

Total Priority Laboratories

$1,267,500.00 $1,382,500.00 $1,342,500.00 $1,187,500.00 $5,180,000.00

Toolboxes

Resilient governance 2.45 $318,500.00 2.4 $392,000.00 2.25 $362,000.00 1.25 $300,000.00 $1,372,500.00

Infrastructure and Built-Environment Solutions 3.2 $391,500.00 5.45 $528,000.00 5.05 $433,000.00 3.05 $369,000.00 $1,721,500.00

Economically Resilient NZ 1.25 $287,500.00 2.5 $374,500.00 2.5 $379,500.00 2.25 $329,500.00 $1,371,000.00

Tikanga Māori 2.05 $267,500.00 3.05 $299,500.00 3.05 $299,500.00 2.05 $267,000.00 $1,133,500.00

Creating a Resilience Culture 3.25 $375,000.00 4.35 $427,000.00 4.35 $417,000.00 2.25 $327,000.00 $1,546,000.00

Resilience to NZ’s hazard spectrum 2.55 $307,500.00 3.75 $330,000.00 3.8 $361,500.00 2.9 $354,500.00 $1,353,500.00

Resilience Trajectories 1.35 $222,500.00 1.85 $238,500.00 1.85 $238,500.00 1.35 $222,500.00 $922,000.00

Total Toolboxes

$2,170,000.00 $2,589,500.00 $2,491,000.00 $2,169,500.00 $9,420,000.00

Contestable

Contestable Funding Round, Phase 1 $668,000.00 $666,000.00 $666,000.00

Total Contestable $668,000.00 $666,000.00 $666,000.00 $2,000,000.00

$19,000,000.00

* The FTEs in the budget are fully costed and include overheads at the Host Organisation rate of a 43% / 57% salary / overhead split.

50

Programme Budgets

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

FTEs $$ FTEs $$ FTEs $$ FTEs $$

Resilient Rural Backbone

FTEs 1.85 $330,000.00 1.8 $320,000.00 1.6 $280,000.00 1.6 $280,000.00

Research Students 1 $32,000.00 2 $64,000.00 2 $64,000.00 1 $32,000.00

Engagement expenses & travel $25,000.00 $25,000.00 $25,000.00

$25,000.00

Workshop/summit expenses $10,000.00 $10,000.00 $10,000.00

$10,000.00

TOTAL 2.85 $397,000.00 3.8 $419,000.00 3.6 $379,000.00 2.6 $347,000.00

Resilient Cities New Zealand Cities

FTEs 1.225 $291,250.00 1.225 $291,250.00 1.225 $291,250.00 1.175 $281,250.00


Engagement expenses & travel $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00

$20,000.00

Workshop/summit $5,000.00 $5,000.00 $5,000.00

$5,000.00

TOTAL 2.225 $358,250.00 3.225 $380,250.00 3.225 $380,250.00 2.175 $338,250.00

Living at the Edge

FTEs 1.325 $268,750.00 1.625 $323,750.00 1.625 $323,750.00 1.325 $268,750.00

Research Students 0.5 $16,000.00 1 $32,000.00 1 $32,000.00 0.5 $16,000.00

Community Engagement, travel, workshops $75,000.00 $75,000.00 $75,000.00

$75,000.00

TOTAL 1.825 $359,750.00 2.625 $430,750.00 2.625 $430,750.00 1.825 $359,750.00

Vision Mātauranga

FTEs 0.45 $95,000.00 0.45 $95,000.00 0.45 $95,000.00 0.45 $95,000.00


Iwi researchers $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00

$20,000.00

Wanaga and travel $9,000.00 $3,000.00 $3,000.00

$9,000.00

Engagement Hui $2,500.00 $2,500.00 $2,500.00

$2,500.00

TOTAL 0.95 $152,500.00 1.45 $152,500.00 1.45 $152,500.00 0.95 $142,500.00

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Resilient governance

FTEs 1.45 $266,500.00 1.4 $310,000.00 1.25 $280,000.00 1.25 $280,000.00

Research Students 1 $32,000.00 1 $32,000.00 1 $32,000.00

Software $30,000.00 $30,000.00

Travel / workshops $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00

$20,000.00

TOTAL 2.45 $318,500.00 2.4 $392,000.00 2.25 $362,000.00 1.25 $300,000.00

Infrastructure and Built-Environment Solutions

FTEs 1.2 $247,500.00 1.45 $300,000.00 1.05 $225,000.00 1.05 $225,000.00


General Operating Expenses $80,000.00 $100,000.00 $80,000.00

$80,000.00

TOTAL 3.2 $391,500.00 5.45 $528,000.00 5.05 $433,000.00 3.05 $369,000.00

Economically Resilient NZ

FTEs 1.25 $267,500.00 1.5 $322,500.00 1.5 $327,500.00 1.25 $277,500.00

Research Students 1 $32,000.00 1 $32,000.00 1 $32,000.00

Travel & engagement $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00

$20,000.00

TOTAL 1.25 $287,500.00 2.5 $374,500.00 2.5 $379,500.00 2.25 $329,500.00

Tikanga Māori FTEs 1.05 $210,000.00 1.05 $210,000.00 1.05 $210,000.00 1.05 $210,000.00


Engagement $15,500.00 $15,500.00 $15,500.00

$15,000.00

Expenses MPK $5,000.00 $5,000.00 $5,000.00

$5,000.00

Travel / workshops $5,000.00 $5,000.00 $5,000.00

$5,000.00

TOTAL 2.05 $267,500.00 3.05 $299,500.00 3.05 $299,500.00 2.05 $267,000.00

Creating a Resilience Culture

FTEs 1.25 $241,000.00 1.35 $261,000.00 1.35 $261,000.00 1.25 $250,000.00


Travel $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $20,000.00

$20,000.00

Stakeholder engagement $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00

$15,000.00

Surveys/printing $15,000.00 $15,000.00 $15,000.00

Subcontract (DP or other) $20,000.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00

$10,000.00

TOTAL 3.25 $375,000.00 4.35 $427,000.00 4.35 $417,000.00 2.25 $327,000.00

52



Resilience to NZ’s hazard spectrum

FTEs 1.55 $248,000.00 1.75 $248,500.00 1.8 $272,500.00 1.9 $297,500.00


Stakeholder ID + Engagement $12,500.00 $5,000.00 $12,500.00

$12,500.00

Travel, workshops, meetings, facilitators $15,000.00 $12,500.00 $12,500.00

$12,500.00

TOTAL 2.55 $307,500.00 3.75 $330,000.00 3.8 $361,500.00 2.9 $354,500.00

Resilience Trajectories

FTEs 0.85 $162,500.00 0.85 $162,500.00 0.85 $162,500.00 0.85 $162,500.00


General Operating Expenses $44,000.00 $44,000.00 $44,000.00

$44,000.00

TOTAL 1.35 $222,500.00 1.85 $238,500.00 1.85 $238,500.00 1.35 $222,500.00

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