restrictions and input coefficients in the regional supply models
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CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact. Restrictions and Input Coefficients in the regional supply models. Blocks of Restrictions. Fixed Resources: arable land, grass land Feed Fertilizer Young animal balance Supply balance Policy restrictions: set aside - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CAPRI CAPRI
Restrictions and Input Coefficientsin the regional supply models
CAPRICommon Agricultural Policy Regional Impact
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
2
Blocks of Restrictions
• Fixed Resources: arable land, grass land
• Feed
• Fertilizer
• Young animal balance
• Supply balance
• Policy restrictions: set aside
• Production quotas (milk, sugar)
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
3
Blocks of Restrictions
Crop Activities
Animal Activities
Feed Use
Net Trade Constraints
Objective function
+ Premium – Acc.Costs – PMPACT
+ Premium – Acc.Costs – PMPACT – PMPFeed
+ Price
Output + + - - = 0
Area - <= UAAR Set aside +/- = 0 Quotas - - <= Ref. Quantity Fertilizer needs - + + = 0 Feed require. - + + = 0
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
4
Restrictions - Land + Policy
grasgrsact
grsact
arabarbact
arbact
GRASlevl
GRASUAARlevlts
..
Fixed resources (Area_, Grasa_)
Policy restrictions: set aside (Mxseta_, Seta_)
3/
0*01.01
*01.0..
grcugrcunonfseta
setanonfsetaarbact
arbact
levllevllevl
levllevlSETRSETRlevlts
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
5
N-, P-, K-balances
Herd sizes
Manure per Head
Supply to crop
production
Losses
Mineralfertilizerpurchase
N, P, K production by
animals
Export with harvest
Over-fertilization
?“availability” factor
Biologicalfixation
“overfertilization” factor
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
6
Fertilization module
• Crop activities demand nutrients which are partially supplied by animal activities (manure): crops enter the equation as ‘consumers’, which need to cover their nitrogen needs through the application of fertiliser
• Nutrient correction and nutrient availability factors are included and specified in order to calibrate observed data on national mineral fertiliser consumption and regional manure production
• All sources and sinks of nitrogen in agriculture are introduced into the model (atmospheric deposition, biological fixation, …) exports and imports of nutrients are considered
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
7
Ammonia module
Nitrogenfrom animals
Total cropN Need
NH3Mineral N
N losses ongrazings
N losses in stableNH3
NH3
N losses instorage systemsNH3
N losses in manure application
NH3
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
8
Calibration step fertilization
Herd sizes
Manure per Head
Supply to crop
production
Losses
Mineralfertilizerpurchase
N, P, K production by
animals
Export with harvest
Over-fertilization
?“availability” factor
Biologicalfixation
“overfertilization” factor
Given from statistics or engineering knowledgeCalibrated to base year situation
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
9
Counterfactual scenarios
Herd sizes
Manure per Head
Supply to crop
production
Losses
Mineralfertilizerpurchase
N, P, K production by
animals
Export with harvest
Over-fertilization
?“availability” factor
Biologicalfixation
“overfertilization” factor
Given from calibration step / engineering knowledgeEndogen in model run
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
10
Restrictions – Feed module
• Animal activities demand nutrients which are supplied by crop feeding activities
• Energy, protein, fiber and dry matter requirements are calculated for 16 animal activities based on bio-physical equations
• Two parts:- Need of nutrients by animals and availability of them on feeding
aggregates defined: requirement functions for each animal category are estimated depending on the ingestion capacity, live weight, days of production and yields
- Fodder prices are estimated for non tradable feeding compounds in the model.
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
11
Restrictions - Feed I
Balance for feeding stuff (Feduse_)
feedfeedmaact
maactmaactfeed feduselevlfedng ,
reqsfeed
feedfeedmaact
maactmaact
reqfedng
daysareqts
0
..
,
Requirements for animals (Reqs_)
Prices for feeding
stuff
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
12
Restrictions - Feed II
minshrfeedfeedmaact
minsmaactfeedmaactmaact
drmamaact
drmafedng
areqminxshrdaysareq
0
***
,
,
Minimum dry matter intake (MinShr_)
maxshrfeedfeedmaact
maxsmaactfeedmaactmaact
drmamaact
drmafedng
areqmaxshrdaysareq
0,
,
Maximum dry matter intake (MaxShr_)
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
13
Restrictions - Young animals
iyanimaact
iyanimaactmaact
omyaniomyani IOlevlyanusets ..
Balance for young animals (Inpani_)
Prices for young animals
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
14
Restrictions - Supply balance
omsmpact
omsmpactmpact
feedfeedomsoms
IOlevl
fedusefeduseyanusenettrdts
..Supply balance (Supbal_)
Prices of products
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
15
Production Quotas
Introduce a new restriction:
nettrdom Q
– Works for milk
– Sugar regime requires more complex approach
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
16
Main components of the CMO
2 Quota system (A and B)3 prices for sugar beets (A,B and C)
prohibitive tariffs to avoid sugar imports Preferential imports from certain countries (ACP countries, India, Western Balkans, Brazil) Intervention combined with subsidised exports
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
17
Sugar production in the EU15 (A398)
0
2000000
4000000
FR DE IT UK ES NL BL DK AT SE EL IR FI
t total sugar quotas
production of sugar(A398)
52%
71%88%
+25%
+20%
+5%+33%
+4% +6% +16%+28%+26%+9%-17% +7% +4%
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
18
The quota/levy mechanism
A quota ~ domestic demand B quota
Intervention price for sugar PI
Sugar world market price
Prices
Exportcosts
Levy
C sugar
Sugar quantities
A beet price PA
B beet price PB
C beet price PC
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
19
Profit maximisation
General agreement: marginal production costs exceed C beet prices
Profit maximising behaviour insufficient to explain observed production quantities in most EU countries
Marginal production costs = pC ?
qA qA+B
pC
pB
pA
x0
pA,B,C
= A,B,C beet pricesqA,A+B = A and A+B quotax0 = observed supply
Sugar beet production
Sugar beetprices
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
20
Expected Profit maximisation
Possibility to reconcile higher marginal cost with observed production but
High C sugar shares still unexplained
qA qA+B
pC
pB
pA
x0 Sugar beet production
Sugar beetprices
Marginal production costs = expected marginal revenue ?
x1
pA,B,C
= A,B,C beet pricesqA,A+B = A and A+B quotax0 x1 = observed supply
EMR depends on:• Prices• Quotas• Yield variance
Expected marginal revenue
CAPRI CAPRI
CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
21
Shifting expected marginal revenues
PA,B,C = A,B,C beet pricesMCest = marginal cost (estimates)EMR = expected marginal revenuesX = sugar beet supply Assumption: Yield underestimation
PA
PB
PC
Beet prices
X0QA QA+B
EMR0
MC1
Beet supply
MCest
XP
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
22
Can expected profit maximisation explainobserved C sugar quantities (1)
Assume each EU Member State is a single farm faced with
the national quota endowmentnational average prices national average yield variation (FADN)national average marginal costs (Estimates)
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CAPRI Training Session, Warsaw, June 26-30 2005
23
Change in regional sugar beet production