results of the afrobarometer round 5 survey...results from the afrobarometer round 5 survey in kenya...

Identity, Interpersonal Relations, Trust in Institutions, and

Citizenship:

Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in Kenya

Highlights from Round 5 Release Event 3, March 2012

www.afrobarometer.org

ids.uonbi.ac.ke

1

University of Nairobi

Institute for Development Studies

http://www.afrobarometer.org/

What is the Afrobarometer?

• The Afrobarometer (AB) is a comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues.

• The AB is an independent, non-partisan, African-based network of researchers.

• The first round of surveys took place in 1999-2001 in 12 countries. The Network is now conducting “Round 5” surveys in up to 35 countries during 2011-2012.

• Purpose: To measure popular perspectives on the social, political, and economic environments in each country where it is implemented and across Africa.

• Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.

2 www.afrobarometer.org


Survey Methodology

• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens

o all respondents are randomly selected

o every adult citizen has an equal and known chance of being selected

• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice

• Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability

• The survey interviewed 2400 adult Kenyans; A sample of this size yields

results with a margin of error of +/- 2 % at a 95% confidence level.

• Field work for Round 5 in Kenya was conducted between November 2 and

November 29 in 2011.

• Afrobarometer’s work in Kenya is coordinated and carried out by the

Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi which is

also the Afrobarometer Core Partner overseeing all AB Network activities

within the East African region.



Country Coverage: 1999-2012

4

Round 1, 1999-2001, 12 countries

• Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe

• West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria

• East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda


• Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal


• Benin, Madagascar


• Burkina Faso, Liberia

Round 5, 2008-2009, up to 35 countries

• Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mauritius, Niger, Togo, and Sierra Leone

• Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia will be covered in collaboration with the Arab Barometer

• Others countries to be identified www.afrobarometer.org


Country Coverage: 1999-2012



Who is the Afrobarometer?

An African-led Network of survey researchers and analysts:

• In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Kenya, the National Partner is the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi.

• Four Core Partners provide technical assistance and Network management:

o Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Ghana

o Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa), South Africa

o Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, Kenya

o Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP), Benin

• Two Support Units for capacity building and quality assurance

o Michigan State University

o University of Cape Town

• Round 5 Core Funders include DFID, SIDA, USAID and the Mo Ibrahim Foundation

6 6 www.afrobarometer.org


Survey Demographics

Kenya Round 5

7

Weighted Un-weighted

Mean Age 41 41

Gender

Male 50% 50%

Female 50% 50%

Location

Urban 36% 38%

Rural 64% 62%

Education

None 7% 7%

Primary 35% 36%

Secondary 40% 40%

Higher 18% 17%



Survey Demographics (cont.)

8

Weighted Un-weighted

Region / Province

Nairobi 10% 10%

Central 13% 13%

Eastern 15% 15%

Rift Valley 25% 25%

Nyanza 13% 13%

Western 10% 10%

North Eastern 5% 5%

Coast 9% 9%

Ethnic Group

Kikuyu 20% 20%

Luhya 15% 15%

Luo 13% 12%

Kamba 10% 11%

Kalenjin 8% 9%

All other groups 34% 33%



• Kenyans appear to be feeling a growing sense of national versus ethnic

identity. More respondents feel only Kenyan or more Kenyan than their

ethnic group now (56%) than in 2008 (47%) or in 2005 (39%).

• A majority of respondents (86%) feel proud to be Kenyan. Region and

ethnicity are powerful predictors of national pride.

• Kenyans remain highly distrustful of most people – most respondents

(90%) report that they must be very careful in dealing with people and a

plurality (45%) report that their trust in other communities has decreased

following the 2007 elections.

• Respondents report relatively high levels of trust in the President, Courts,

Prime Minister, and IEBC and low levels of trust in the police and their

local councils.

• Most Kenyans believe that citizenship should be granted to people who

have been born in Kenya, are married to a Kenyan, or who have lived in

Kenya for many years.

9

Key Findings

www.afrobarometer.org


Kenya Round 5 Survey Results:

Identity



www.afrobarometer.org 11 11

National vs. Ethnic Identity

Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Kenyan and being a (respondent's

ethnic group). Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?

8%

35%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

I feel only my ethnic

group/ I feel more of my

ethnic group than

Kenyan

I feel equally Kenyan and

my ethnic group

I feel more Kenyan than

my ethnic group/ I feel

only Kenyan



National vs. Ethnic Identity (Over Time)





National vs. Ethnic Identity (by Region)



9% 6% 8%

11% 9% 9%

2%

9%

33% 30%

38% 34%

39% 40%

31%

35%

59%

63%

54% 56% 52% 51%

67%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nairobi Central Eastern Rift Valley Nyanza Western North

Eastern

Coast

I feel only my ethnic group/ I feel more of my ethnic group than Kenyan

I feel equally Kenyan and my ethnic group

I feel more Kenyan than my ethnic group/ I feel only Kenyan



National vs. Ethnic Identity (by Ethnic

Group) Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Kenyan and being a (respondent's


8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 5% 9%

6%

11%

33%

41%

34% 36% 36%

42%

36%

29%

34%

59%

51%

57% 56% 57%

53% 55%

65%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Kikuyu Luo Luhya Kamba Kalenjin Meru/

Embu

Mijikenda Somali Other

I feel only my ethnic group/ I feel more of my ethnic group than Kenyan

I feel equally Kenyan and my ethnic group

I feel more Kenyan than my ethnic group/ I feel only Kenyan



Proud to be Kenyan

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: It

makes you proud to be called a Kenyan

10%

4%

86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Disagree/ Strongly disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree/ Strongly agree



Proud to be Kenyan (by Region)



12%

5%

18%

8% 5% 5%

9%

20%

7%

2%

8%

3% 2% 2% 7% 7%

80%

93%

75%

90% 94% 93%

84%

73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Eastern

Coast




Proud to be Kenyan (by Ethnic Group)



7% 7% 6%

17%

4%

15%

23%

12% 11%

3% 3% 2% 5%

2%

10% 6% 7% 3%

91% 91% 91%

78%

94%

75%

70%

81% 86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Embu





Interpersonal Relations




Trust in Most People

Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or

that you must be very careful in dealing with people?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Must be very careful Most people can be trusted Don't know

90%

9%

1%



Trust in Most People (Over Time)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


90%

10%

0%

90%

9%

1%

2005

2011



Trust in Most People (Urban-Rural)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


93%

6%

1%

89%

11%

1%

Urban Rural



Trust in Most People (by Region)

Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you

must be very careful in dealing with people?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Eastern

Coast

92% 90% 89%

92%

86%

94% 92%

88%

7% 10% 9% 8%

13%

6% 8%

12%

Must be very careful Most people can be trusted



Trust in Most People (by Ethnic Group)

Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you

must be very careful in dealing with people?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Embu


Groups

89% 88%

94% 92% 93%

85% 86%

94% 90%

10% 12%

5% 7% 6%

12% 14%

6% 10%

Must be very careful Most people can be trusted



Trust in Types of People

How much do you trust each of the following types of people?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Relatives Neighbors People you know Members of other

communities

Religious leaders

2%

6% 9%

18%

5%

20%

32%

40%

44%

28%

33%

39% 39%

29%

39%

45%

23%

12%

8%

28% Not at all

Just a little

Somewhat

A lot



Trust in People Since 2007

Since the tragedy of violence that followed the 2007 elections, would you say your trust

for each of the following has increased, decreased, or stayed the same?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Relatives Neighbors Other

communities

Religious

leaders

15%

31%

45%

22%

57%

51%

41%

54%

27%

18%

13%

23%

1% 1% 2% 1%

Decreased a lot / Decreased

Remained same

Increased / Increased a lot

Don't know



Trust in Institutions




Trust in Executive Institutions

How much do you trust each of the following, or haven't you heard enough

about them to say?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

President Prime Minister Vice President

37% 40%

52%

61%

57%

45%

2% 3% 3%

Not at all/Just a little

Somewhat / A lot

Don't Know



Trust in Parliament and Local Council


about them to say?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Not at all/Just a little Somewhat / A lot Don't Know

47% 49%

3%

58%

37%

4%

Parliament

Local council



Trust in Other Government Institutions


about them to say?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

IEBC KRA Police Army Courts

31%

45%

67%

27%

35%

53%

42%

32%

70%

61%

17%

13%

1% 3% 3%

Not at all/Just a little

Somewhat / A lot

Don't Know



Citizenship




Who has the right to be a Kenyan Citizen?

In your opinion, which of the following people have a right to be a citizen of Kenya?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Born in Kenya

with one

Kenyan and

one non

Kenyan parent

Born in Kenya

with two non-

Kenyan

parents

Wife of a

Kenyan man,

born outside of

Kenya

Husband of a

Kenyan

women, born

outside of

Kenya

Came from

another

country, but

who has lived

in Kenya for

many years

Wishes to hold

dual

citizenship

14%

39%

12%

43%

25%

45%

82%

57%

84%

51%

69%

46%

5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 9%

No

Yes

Don't know


Conclusions


A majority of respondents (56%) now feel more Kenyan or equally Kenyan

and their ethnic group. The proportion of respondents who felt their ethnic

identity more than their national identity (being Kenyan) has reduced from

16% in 2005 to 8% in 2011.

Somali respondents (65%) demonstrated the highest proportion of feeling

more Kenyan or equally Kenyan while Luo respondents (51%) demonstrated

the lowest proportion of feeling more Kenyan or equally Kenyan.

While a large majority of respondents are proud to be Kenyan (86%),

levels of pride vary substantially by region and ethnic group:

Respondents in Nyanza (94%), Western (93%), and Central (93%) report the

highest levels of pride while respondents from Coast (73%), Eastern (75%),

and Nairobi (80%) report the lowest levels of pride in being Kenyan.

Kalenjin (94%), Kikuyu (91%), and Luo (91%) respondents report the highest

proportion of pride in being called Kenyan while Mijikenda (70%), Meru/Embu

(75%), and Kamba (78%) report the lowest levels of pride in being Kenyan.


Conclusions (2)


In both 2005 and 2011, 90% of respondents report that they must be very careful in

dealing with most people.

Across regions, urban/rural locations, and ethnic groups overwhelming majorities of

respondents believe they must be very careful in dealing with people.

Sizeable minorities report decreased levels of trust in relatives (15%), neighbors (31%),

other communities (45%), and religious leaders (22%) since the 2007 elections.

A majority or respondents report they trust the President (61%), Courts (61%),

Prime Minister (57%), and IEBC (53%) either somewhat or a lot. On the other

hand, a majority of respondents report no trust or just a little trust in the police

(67%) and their local council (58%).

A majority of respondents believe that people: born with only one Kenyan parent

(82%), born in Kenya with no Kenyan parents (57%), married to a Kenyan man

(84%), married to a Kenyan woman (51%), and who have lived in Kenya for many

years (69%) have the right to be a citizen. In addition, a plurality (46%) believe that

people who wish to hold dual citizenship have the right to be citizens.


For more information and publications, please contact Abel Oyuke

Afrobarometer Program Manager at IDS: [email protected] or

[email protected] and visit the Afrobarometer website at:

www.afrobarometer.org.

34

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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