PopulationPopulationWhere has the world’s population increased?

Measures of Population ChangeMeasures of Population Change

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)◦ Total # of births/year for every 1000 people◦ Ranges 5-50 (high 30+)

Crude Death Rate (CDR) or Mortality Rate◦ Total # of deaths/year for every 1000 people◦ Ranges 1-28◦ In 1994, CDRs for LDCs dropped below MDCs & have remained

lower ever since

Natural Increase Rate (NIR)◦ % in which a population grows in a year CDR-CBR◦ Excludes migration◦ Ranges (-0.1)-3.4

Population Growth Rate (PGR)◦ NIR & NMR (impact of migration)

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth1950–20001950–2000

Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

Natural IncreaseNatural Increase

World NIR = 1.3%All-time peak was in 1963 = 2.2%Small changes in NIR = BIG impactsDoubling time: # of years it takes to double

a population◦Rule of 70/72 (divide 70/72 by NIR)

Almost 100% of NI is in LDCsAfrica (Sub-Saharan), Asia, Latin America &

Middle East (NIR +2%)Correlation between high NIR rates & low

status of women…..why???

NIR ExampleNIR Example

Country A has a BR of 22/1000Country A has a DR of 12/1000NIR = 10/1000 or 1%

Natural Increase RatesNatural Increase Rates

Fig. 2-7: The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.

FertilityFertility

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): ave. # of children a woman will have in her child-bearing yrs (15-49)

Since 1960, ave. TFR in LDCs has fallen from 6.0 to 2.9 (largest decline in L.A. & Asia) *more rapid than expected

World average = 2.4 20 years ago = 3.8

SS Africa = 6+MDCs = 1.6

20 years ago = 2.0

MortalityMortality

Life Expectancy: # of yrs a newborn can expect to live◦Largely influenced by IMRs◦Women live longer than men◦70+ in MDCs & as little as late-

30s in SS Africa ◦ mainly due to AIDS;

Botswana/Zimbabwe◦Japan has the highest LE◦Can change quickly

◦ Males in USSR dropped from 68 to 62 following collapse of communism and now in Russia for males it’s 58

Mortality cont’d..Mortality cont’d..

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): # of babies under 1 yr that die annually compared to live births

Reflect overall health of a society 10% in LDCs, less than 5% in MDCs Higher in USA than in Canada/most of Europe Leading cause of death; diarrhea & malnutrition Lowest rates (under 3/1000) in Japan, Singapore &

Sweden Highest rates (125/1000+) in Sierra Leone &

Afghanistan (1 in every 8) Large differences within countries (race)

Life Expectancy at birthLife Expectancy at birth

Fig. 2-11: Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries.

South AsiaSouth Asia

Most important geographic region to pop. Growth

India (PGR 1.3)to overtake China in coming years (PGR 0.4)

Sri Lanka (21 million) only country with growth rate lower than world average in this region

Pakistan & Bangladesh have a combined pop. of 300 million

Projected GrowthProjected Growth

Currently worlds most populous region is East Asia

China’s NIR has fallen below 1% Japan’s pop. Beginning to decline

Growth between 2000-2050◦Africa will account for +1/3, outnumbering

China by 8x◦India reached 1 billion in 2000, is projected to

grow by an additional 50%◦Europe’s pop. Is projected to ↓ by 70 million

Do you notice any patterns???Do you notice any patterns???

Highest Birth Rates◦Rwanda◦Malawi◦Yemen◦Uganda◦Ethiopia◦Niger◦Mali◦Burundi◦Afghanistan◦Tanzania

Lowest Birth Rates◦Italy (Roman Catholic?!?!)

◦Greece◦Japan◦Spain◦Austria◦Germany◦Hungary◦Denmark◦Portugal