Revised March 25, 2015

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(January 2014–February 2015)

Purchasing Managers' Index New Orders Production Employment Inventories

Source: Institute for Supply Management

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb

Percentage Changes in ManufacturingProduction, 2014–2015

Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb

Year-Over-Year Industrial ProductionGrowth, 2014–2015

Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

$0.5

$0.7

$0.9

$1.1

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manufacturing’s Value-Added Contributions to theU.S. Economy, in Trillions of Dollars

Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2013:I II III IV 2014:I II III IV 2015:I II III IV

Real Gross Domestic Product(Chained 2005 Dollars)

Real GDP Forecast:↑ 2.2% (2013)↑ 2.4% (2014)↑ 2.8% (2015)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model

70.1% 72.3%

76.1%78.1%

86.1% 85.9%87.3%

91.2%88.5%

2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1

NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of ManufacturersBusiness Outlook by Quarter, 2013–2015

Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 2014 Q1:2014 Q2:2014 Q3:2014 Q4:2014 Q1:2015

Expected Growth of ManufacturingSales, Investment and Employment

Sales Investment Employment

Percent

Avg. 12-Month Growth RatesSales: ↑ 4.3%

Investment: ↑ 2.3%Employment: ↑ 1.9%

Source: NAM/Industry Week Survey of ManufacturersNote: Expected growth rates are annual averages.

5.1%

23.7%

30.0%

30.3%

36.3%

56.2%

69.1%

69.4%

Challenges with access to capital

Rising raw material costs for our products

Weaker global growth and slower export sales

Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products

Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies

Attracting and retaining a quality workforce

Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations)

Rising health care/insurance costs

Primary Current Business Challenges,First Quarter 2015

Source: NAM/Industry Week Survey of ManufacturersNote: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S.-Manufactured Goods Exports, 2000–2014(in Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

Durable Goods Manufactured Goods Nondurable Goods

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

48.7

54.4

50.7

51.6

54.1

51.1

49.6

52.2

51.150.7

Canada Mexico China Japan UnitedKingdom

Germany Brazil Netherlands South Korea Hong Kong

Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the Top 10 ExportMarkets for U.S. Manufactured Goods

(February 2015)

Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI: 51.9Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 51.0

Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.0U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Markit): 55.1

Source: Markit

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar IndexAgainst Major Currencies

(Currency Units per U.S. Dollar)

Index(1973=100)

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar

Source: Federal Reserve Board

0.32%

5.67%5.19%

0.60%

14.04%

5.39%

-3.52%

1.40%

5.49%

-4.19%

Canada Mexico China Japan UnitedKingdom

Germany Brazil Netherlands South Korea Hong Kong

Percent Growth of ManufacturedGoods Exports for Top 10 Markets, 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

166

188

225

330

236

286

249

213

250

221

423

329

239

295

16 209 11 12

2314 14

923

45

19 218

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 15-Jan Feb

Monthly Changes in Employment, 2014–2015(in Thousands of Employees)

Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing

–

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment Situation

Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Unemployment Rate

Millionsof Workers

UnemploymentRate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.1

1.2

3.7

5.4

7.3

7.9

11.1

16.6

17.9

18.0

19.3

21.2

35.3

40.9

65.4

Textile product mills

Textile mills

Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing

Computer and electronic products

Food manufacturing

Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing

Primary metals

Chemicals

Plastics and rubber products

Wood products

Furniture and related products

Nonmetallic mineral products

Fabricated metal products

Machinery

Transportation equipment

Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest NetEmployment Gains Year-Over-Year

(December 2013 to February 2015, in thousands of employees)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Manufacturing Employment Growth(December 2007 = 100)

Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb

Year-Over-Year Growthin Retail Sales, 2014–2015

Retail Sales Excluding Autos Excluding Gasoline Stations

YOY % Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Monthly Business and ConsumerSentiment Surveys

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Conference Board Consumer Confidence

NFIB Small Business Optimism

ConsumerConfidence Indices

NFIB SmallBusiness Index

Source: University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters, Conference Board, National Federation of Independent Business

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Housing Market Situation

Housing Starts Housing Permits NAHB Housing Market Index

NAHB HousingMarket Index

Housing Starts, Permits(in thousands of units)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Manufacturing Construction Spending, 2005–2015(Value of Private Construction Put in Place, in Billions of Dollars)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb

Producer Price Index, 2014–2015Year-Over-Year Percentage Changes for Each Month

Final Demand Final Demand Less Food and Energy

Percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics