Revision2014Danish Major Revision

And implementation of ESA2010

By Annette Thomsen, Project Coordinator

Presented by Søren Brodersen

Structure of presentation

• Background

• Organisation

• ESA2010 – conceptual changes

• First estimates of effect of conceptual changes

Background

• is very detailed: e.g. General Government Sector subsystem has around 75.000 entries per year; production accounts based on detailed commodity flow system (2.300 commodities; 120 industries; 3 different price levels; constant and current prices)

The Danish National Accounts System

Background

• Seeks full coordination between:– Quarterly and annual accounts

– GFS statistics and national accounts

– Financial and non financial accounts

– Balance of payments and financial and non financial accounts

– Employment statistics and production accounts

• All national accounts time series are open for revision

Organisation

• Expected results

– In September 2014, we can publish revised national accounts according to ESA2010/SNA2008

– Distinguish between data- and methodological and conceptual changes for at least one year (2008)

– Submit national accounts data according to ESA2010/SNA2008 to Eurostat/OECD/UN and national users

– Documentation of results

– Improved and standardised calculation systems

Organisation

• The revision is organised as a project called ”Revision2014”

• The project is carried out by the National Accounts Division, Government Finance Division and Foreign Trade Division

• There has not been established a separate unit

• Normal production and publication rhythm during the project

Organisation of Revision2014

Organisation

• Composition and Role of Steering Group:– Director of Economic Statistics (Chairman),

Project Coordinator, Head of Divisions of: National Accounts; Government Finance Statistics; Foreign Trade

– Make decisions regarding areas of revision, resources, timetables and methods

– Meet once every month

Organisation

• Composition and Role of Reference Group:– Steering Group plus Heads of Divisions of:

Macro Economic Models; Price Statistics; Labour Marked Statistics; Agricultural Statistics; Business Statistics; Statistics produced by Central Bank

– Members are not directly involved, but have an interest in following the project

– Meet two times every year

Organisation

• Role of project coordinator– Organise collection of short written description of

all proposed revision projects prior to decision by Steering Group

– Coordinate sub-projects, that affect more than one division

– Secretary for the Steering Group

• Role of Coordination Groups– The practical side e.g. data-exchange, content of

revisions, timetables

– Chaired by project coordinator (except with CB)

Overall planning - Phases

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Preparation

Data- and methods (phase1)

ESA2010 (phase2)

ESA-transmissionprogramme

Publication

Organisation – Phase 1: Data- and methodological revisions

• 1.1 Identification, delimitation and decision of number of data- and methodological revisions

• 1.2 Execution of revisions

• 1.3 Quality assurance

• 1.4. Evaluation of effect of data- and methodological revisions

Data- and methodological revisions (examples)

• ”Simple” calculation errors

• Incorporation of new sources in level and not just growth rates (e.g. dwellings)

• Improvement of estimation methods (e.g. foreign affiliates in insurance)

Organisation – Phase 2: Conceptual changes (ESA2010/SNA2008)

• 2.1 Identification and delimitation of conceptual changes

• 2.2 Agreement of calculation methods

• 2.3 Incorporation of conceptual changes in the national accounts

• 2.4 Quality assurance

• 2.5 Evaluation of results of total conceptual changes

ESA2010 - Conceptual changes (examples)

• New guidelines for:

– Volume indicators for individual government consumption (e.g. health and education)

– Military expenditures

– Employers’ pension schemes

– Goods for processing

ESA2010 – conceptual changes and data transmission

• Work still going on:– Research and development – to be capitalised?

(in Denmark, yes)

– FISIM – not yet an agreed method

• Transmission of data to EU still discussed– Earlier and more detailed sector accounts

– Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) to be transmitted as a separate sector and not with households

Estimated effect of ESA2010 on GDP and GNI

Pct. in 2006 GDP GNI

(1) Pension schemes 0,01 0,01

(2) Research and development

1,80 1,77

(3) Military expenditure 0,05 0,05

(4) Other 0,34-0,42 0,36-0,43

(5) Total 2,20-2,27 2,18-2,26