Rice-Wheat Food System-- Socioeconomic and Policy

Issues

P K Joshi

National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012

Organization of presentation

1. Background

2. Objectives

3. Institutional and policy issues

5. Performance of rice-wheat system

6. Sustainability of rice-wheat system

7. Issues for future research

I. Background

• Rice and wheat are the most important crops in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)

• IGP was characterized for green revolution as a result of HYVs of rice and wheat

• The region contributes about 60% of total rice and wheat production in the country

• This region accounts for more than 75% of total procurement in the country

Emerging issues

• Over production is burdening state exchequer

• Rice and wheat yields are stagnating

• Total factor productivity is decelerating

• Intensification led to degradation of natural resources

II. Objectives

• How is the performance of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain?– Production– Profitability– Sustainability

• What are the key sources of production growth in rice and wheat?

• How to sustain production of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plain?

Indo Gangetic Plain

Study area

TGP

UGP

MGP

LGP

Indo Gangetic PlainFS

Plains

Arid

NWP

SWP

CP

NEP

EP

Vindyan

NEP

SBP

NBP

BP

RP

CAP

ACSP

Sub-Regions

Study domain

Policy initiatives

• Subsidy on– Fertilizer– Canal water– power tariff– Improved varieties of seeds– Credit

• Minimum support prices• Assured procurement of

rice and wheat

Institutional aspects

• Investment in agricultural research

• Seed sector• Credit institutions• Irrigation network

III. Performance of Rice and wheat

Production of Rice and Wheat in Indo- Gangetic Plain

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Rice WheatYear

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1997/98

Sub Regions Change in Rice Share in

Production(mtons) total Prod. (%) Production Area Yield

Foothills of Shivalik 0.83 3.57 6.38 3.5 2.89 Plains 3.88 16.68 8.44 6.06 2.41Arid 3.94 16.93 13.34 9.98 3.47

North-Western Plains 0.85 3.63 4.73 0.68 4.05South-Western Plains 0.67 2.89 4.83 1.37 3.45Central Plains 1.68 7.21 5.6 1.44 4.15

Eastern Plains 1.84 7.92 6.35 1.29 5.06Vindyan 0.18 0.78 3.96 1.27 2.67South Bihar Plains 0.19 0.80 0.21 -0.47 0.68North -Eastern Plains 1.39 5.97 4.53 0.85 3.67North-Bihar Plains 0.47 2.03 1.99 0.19 1.77North -East Plains 0.63 2.73 2.14 -0.06 2.19

Barind Plains 0.86 3.69 3.53 0.42 3.11Central alluvial Plains 4.13 17.72 4.13 0.93 3.21Rorh Plain 0.98 4.22 2.97 0.41 2.57Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 0.75 3.23 3.49 0.65 2.85Total Change in Rice Prod. 23.29

Middle Gangetic Plains Region

Lower Gangetic Plains Region

Annual Compound growth rates (%)

Change in production and growth rates of area, production and yield of rice in IGP,1967-96

Trans Gangetic Plains Region

Upper Gangetic Plains Region

Sub Region Change in Wheat Share inProd. (mtons) total Prod. (%) Production Area Yield

Foothills of Shivalik 1.49 4.71 4.09 1.08 3.03Plains 5.13 16.28 4.15 1.59 2.57Arid 6.69 21.22 5.68 2.79 2.94

North-Western Plains 3.13 9.93 4.55 1.16 3.39South-Western Plains 2.70 8.57 4.41 1.42 2.99Central Plains 3.02 9.58 6.43 3.04 3.39

Eastern Plains 2.74 8.70 9.15 6.11 3.05Vindyan 0.20 0.64 6.88 4.69 2.18South Bihar Plains 0.91 2.90 3.99 1.59 2.48North -Eastern Plains 2.79 8.84 5.15 2.00 3.15North-Bihar Plains 1.47 4.67 5.73 2.65 3.06North -East Plains 0.63 2.01 3.88 1.03 2.82

Barind Plains 0.18 0.56 9.35 5.5 3.93Central alluvial Plains 0.39 1.25 4.68 2.12 2.63Rorh Plain 0.04 0.13 1.19 -1.64 2.86Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 0.01 0.04 3.27 0.59 2.75Total Change in Wheat Prod. 31.53

Middle Gangetic Plains Region

Lower Gangetic Plains Region

Annual Compound growth rates (%)

Change in production and growth rates of area, production and yield of wheat in IGP,1967-96

Trans Gangetic Plains Region

Upper Gangetic Plains Region

Sub Regions 1967 1996 1967-76 1977-86 1987-96

Foothills of Shivalik 1132 2820 5.91 3.03 1.26Plains 1318 2963 6.87 1.38 0.34Arid 1308 3999 8.89 1.82 4.18

North-Western Plains 820 2351 4.92 4.17 1.68South-Western Plains 816 2125 3.03 3.65 3.91Central Plains* 670 1851 4.19 4.62 2.53

Eastern Plains* 496 1890 4.03 6.62 4.36Vindyan* 563 1557 1.97 4.31 7.06South Bihar Plains* 874 1085 0.45 2.01 -2.22North -Eastern Plains* 668 1559 2.04 6.13 3.29North-Bihar Plains* 589 980 2.69 2.56 -1.56North -East Plains* 616 1344 2.04 6.13 3.29

Barind Plains 881 1937 0.58 3.45 4.48Central alluvial Plains 1086 2335 2.06 3.25 2.07Rorh Plain 1300 2341 0.45 2.97 1.50Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain1096 1979 1.57 2.81 1.97IGP Region 839 2850 3.00 3.93 5.12

* Data upto 1994

Yield (kg/ha) Annual Compound growth rates(%)

Average yield and yield growth rates of rice in different sub- regions of IGP

Trans Gangetic Plains Region

Upper Gangetic Plains Region

Middle Gangetic Plains Region

Lower Gangetic Plains Region

Sub Region1967 1996 1967-76 1977-86 1987-96

Foothills of Shivalik 1290 3496 4.09 3.55 2.63Plains 1949 3963 0.69 3.27 1.90Arid 1749 3873 2.52 2.86 2.27

North-Western Plains 1208 2702 1.34 4.54 1.59South-Western Plains 1340 2899 1.30 4.27 1.67Central Plains* 967 2164 1.34 4.54 1.59

Eastern Plains* 1064 2216 1.71 3.44 2.32Vindyan* 1124 1693 -4.77 4.39 6.43South Bihar Plains* 799 1906 5.59 2.09 3.06North -Eastern Plains* 940 2009 0.13 5.04 2.68North-Bihar Plains* 772 2102 4.47 3.67 4.44North -East Plains* 753 1812 0.13 5.04 2.68

Barind Plains 851 2221 6.28 6.16 2.68Central alluvial Plains 1036 2477 6.30 5.05 2.54Rorh Plain 1021 2436 4.32 5.34 3.22Alluvial Coastal Saline Plain 1069 1909 6.24 4.28 -0.76IGP Region 1293 3624 1.58 3.64 4.08

* Data upto 1994

Trans Gangetic Plains Region

Upper Gangetic Plains Region

Middle Gangetic Plains Region

Lower Gangetic Plains Region

Yield (kg/ha)

Average yield and yield growth rates of wheat in different sub- regions of IGP

Annual Compound growth rates (%)

IV Sources of growth in rice and wheat production

•Technology•Area•Policy

Rice area according to yield levels and growth rates

Yield level Growth rates Total

>3.5 percent 2-3 percent 1-2 percent <1 percent

> 3 tons/ha 3.84 2.63 2.37 8.84

2.5-3 tons/ha 0.38 2.82 1.88 6.64 11.72

2-2.5 tons/ha 7.44 12.81 4.91 4.68 29.84

1.5-2 tons/ ha 14.38 2.26 2.69 3.91 23.24

<1.5 tons/ha 1.28 5.11 0.01 20.40 26.8

Total Share 27.32 23.00 12.12 38.00 100

Perticulars Unit High Low t values

HYV area % 95 31 4.30Fertilizer Kg/ha 124 65 12.70Irrigated area % 100 42 2.71Tractors no/ 000 ha 40 0 12.70Market no/ lakh ha 13 3 12.70Rainfall mm 250 738 12.70

All are significantly different at 5%

Tecnology and infrastructure levels in high and low growth regions of rice

Yield level Total area>3.5 percent 2-3 percent 1-2 percent <1 percent

> 3 tons/ ha 4 17 15 362.5-3 tons/ ha 1 8 2 5 132-2.5 tons / ha 11 11 8 6 36<2 tons /ha 9 3 2 1 15Total Share 25 36 28 12 100

Wheat area according to yield levels and growth rates

Growth rates

Perticulars Unit High Low t valuesHYV area % 96 37 4.30Fertilizer Kg/ha 95 67 3.18 Irrigated area % 98 138 4.30Tractors no/ 000 ha 45 0 4.30Market no/ lakh ha 6 5 3.18Rainfall mm 184 131 3.18

Technology and infrastructure levels in high and low growth regions of wheat

All are significantly different at 5 %

Area expansion of rice and wheat in IGP (1966-95)

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1996

Sources of area expansion

• Utilization of fallow lands– Cropping intensity increased from 130

in 1967 to 175 in 1998• Crop substitution

– Coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds• Management of degraded lands

– 1 m ha alkali soil was reclaimed– Contributed >20% of increased

production

Profitability (‘ 000 Rs / ha) of various crop rotations underdifferent scenarios in Karnal District, Haryana, India

Crop rotation With subsidy1 Without subsidyin fertilizer

Without subsidyin electricity and

fertilizerRice- wheat- black gram 31.4 30.2 22.5

Rice- berseem 30.6 29.8 20.9

Rice-wheat- mung bean 30.5 29.2 21.5

Rice-wheat 28.9 27.8 20.6

Rice-chickpea 26.6 26.0 20.0

Pigeonpea- wheat 20.5 19.7 18.0

1. Subsidy in fertilizer and electricity for irrigationSource: Derived from data of on- farm survey, 1996-97

Sources of change in gross income-rice

4555

23

77

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1980s 1990s

Yield effect Price effect

Sources of change in gross income-wheat

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1980s 1990s

Yield effect Price effect

Part III

Sustainability issues of rice and wheat

Total factor productivity growth rates of rice (% per year)

Subregion 1966-76 1977-86 1987-96Trans Gangetic Plain Region

Foothills of Shivalik 8.22 0.93 2.03

Plains 9.00 2.79 0.82Arid 13.26 5.44 3.27

Upper Gangetic Plain RegionNorthwestern Plains 1.12 -1.97 -8.62Southwestern Plains 0.72 -0.47 6.33Central Plain 1.04 -1.05 -3.31

Middle Gangetic Plain RegionEastern Plains 2.07 3.15 0.26Vindyan 1.52 -1.48 3.79South Bihar Plains 1.84 -6.06 -5.73Northeastern Plains 1.12 0.87 -1.84North Bihar Plains 4.43 -2.66 -4.60Northeastern Plains 5.81 -7.06 0.30

Lower Gangetic Plain RegionBarind Plains 0.35 1.99 -0.74Central Alluvial Plains 0.88 2.20 0.12Rorh Plains -1.27 0.32 -0.52Alluvial Coastal Saline -0.58 0.76 -1.15

Region wise TFP growth rates of wheat (% per year)

Subregion 1966-76 1977-86 1987-96Trans Gangetic Plain Region

Foothills of Shivalik 5.12 0.30 0.28

Plains 2.41 -3.23 -3.77Arid 3.52 0.29 -0.57

Upper Gangetic Plain RegionNorthwestern Plains 1.43 -0.51 -8.26Southwestern Plains 1.59 -1.03 -8.72Central Plain 3.23 -0.63 -8.90

Middle Gangetic Plain RegionEastern Plains 6.65 -1.55 -9.99Vindyan 3.34 -0.88 -18.79South Bihar Plains 2.55 -2.11 -1.06Northeastern Plains 1.37 0.22 -8.85North Bihar Plains 4.10 -2.96 -1.65Northeast Plains 0.68 -3.57 -5.22

Lower 0.68Gangetic Plain RegionBarind Plains 29.46 -6.06 -12.49Central Alluvial Plains 19.87 -2.26 -10.46Rorh Plains 15.32 -0.26 -9.16Alluvial Coastal Saline 26.25 -1.99 -12.93

Indicators of sustainability

Economic Indicators

• Growth in production

• Yield level

• Yield stability

Environmental Indicators

• Groundwater

• Land degradation

• Biodiversity

Sustainability Index of rice Sustainability Index of rice and wheatand wheat

Unsustainable area of rice and wheat in IGP

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1966-761987-96

Sustainability status Sustainability status Of riceOf rice

1966-671966-67 1996-1996-9797

• During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are During 1966-67 unsustainable regions are Vindyan and South Bihar plain Vindyan and South Bihar plain in Middle gangetic plain and in Middle gangetic plain and Barind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal salineBarind, Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower gangetic plain region.plain in Lower gangetic plain region.

• In 1987-96 , In 1987-96 , Plains Plains in Trans gangetic plain; in Trans gangetic plain; North western plainNorth western plain in Upper in Upper gangetic plain; gangetic plain; South Bihar,North Bihar and North eastSouth Bihar,North Bihar and North east in Middle gangetic in Middle gangetic plain and plain and Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain Central alluvial, Rorh, and Alluvial coastal saline plain in Lower in Lower gangetic plain becomes unsustainable.gangetic plain becomes unsustainable.

Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions

Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions

Sustainability status Sustainability status Of wheatOf wheat

1966-671966-67 1996-1996-9797

Unsustainable Unsustainable regionregion

Unsustainable Unsustainable regionsregions

• During 1966-67, all the regions except During 1966-67, all the regions except North eastern plainNorth eastern plain in Middle in Middle gangetic plain,were sustainable regions.gangetic plain,were sustainable regions.

• During 1987-96, During 1987-96, Plains Plains in Trans gangetic plain; in Trans gangetic plain; North western and North western and South westernSouth western in Upper gangetic plain; in Upper gangetic plain; South Bihar, North eastern and South Bihar, North eastern and North east North east in Middle gangetic plain and in Middle gangetic plain and Rorh and Alluvial coastal Rorh and Alluvial coastal saline plainsaline plain in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable. in Lower gangetic plains were unsustainable.

Future researchable issues

• Reform in irrigation sector• Price policy• Technology intervention in slow growth

regions• Agricultural diversification in high growth

regions– High value enterprises– Export led enterprises

• Innovative institutional models

Conclusions

• Policies, institutions and technologies played important role in increasing production of rice and wheat

• Growth rates in yields as well as of TFP of rice and wheat are decelerating

• Deceleration in growth of yields and TFP in low-yielding regions is a matter of serious concern

Conclusions

• Many environmental problems have erupted as a result of defective policies

• Huge potential exists in increasing yields of rice and wheat

• Opportunities are to be explored in lagging regions

• Input price policies need to be corrected for their efficient utilization, and containing degradation of natural resources

Thank you

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