richard lycan population research center portland state university, oregon oregon academy of...
TRANSCRIPT
Richard LycanPopulation Research Center
Portland State University, Oregon
Oregon Academy of Sciences Annual MeetingFebruary 2007
Portland Connections
Portland’s Migration Linkages from 1955-2000
Focus on Portland Metro Area
Framework for studying any metro area
Portland mainly based on current seven county metro area definition
Data for earlier periods based on older 4 county area
Some historical data presented for state
Overview of presentation
Measuring migration
Migration as a change agent
Geographic linkages in 2000
Linkages since 1955-60
Who are the movers
Sources of migration flow data
Administrative records, e.g. IRS data Register data, e.g. Sweden Census data – used in this paper
Question on long form questionnaire, 15% sample
Pre 1980 data mainly from print publications 1990, 2000, 2005 from digital files
County to county flows Public use microsample or PUMS
Not as accessible as other census data
The census question
The relevant census question asked where each person in the household lived five years ago.
The county to county flow tables provide tabulations at the county level of previous residence versus other person, housing unit, and household characteristics.
The public use microsample is more flexible, but based on smaller sample and uses counties and county groupings known as PUMAs.
Migration as a change agent The total population of an area can only change
through:
net migration (in-out migration) and natural increase (births-deaths).
For Oregon net migration generally is a more important determinant of population change than is natural increase.
Changes the composition of Oregon’s population are due in large part to the differences in the in and out migration streams
The important role of migration in Oregon’s population change
The upper graph shows the steady trend in the number of deaths and the fluctuating trend of births.
The lower graph shows the relative importance of net migration (in-out migrants) compared to natural increase (births-deaths).
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Net Migration
Natural Increase
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Births
Deaths
1955-60
1965-70
1985-90
1975-80
1995-2000
Periods in green covered by census question: “Where did you live five years ago?”
Gross migration as a function of region’s population and distance from Portland
Gross migration (the total movers) between two places is largely related to distance and the size of the places.
Our focus in this paper is the differences in the size of the migration streams to and from Portland, which vary due to complex economic and social forces.
PDX Migration vs. Distance - 1995-2000
WA
SEA
AK-HI
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30 2.50 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.30 3.50
Log 10 of Distance in Miles
Log
10 o
f Per
cent
Mig
ratin
g
log (MigRate) = 3.88 -1.63 log (Distance)
R2 = .0.918 (excluding AK and HI)
Volume of spherical symbol represents number of migrants
Oregon
Washington
Rocky Mtn
California
Regions to East
Coverage of study and presentation
Migration streams to and from the Portland Metropolitan Area are presented for five year time periods from 1955-60 to 1995-2000, except for the 1975-80 time period.
Migration streams for many of the characteristics of the movers also were computed and mapped. Selected results are shown here for Hispanic status and personal income.
How to read the map
Data for 1995-2000
Net GrossIn Thousands
Think of the width of the flow-line as the diameter of a pipe
Far away regions are groups of states, nearby parts of states
The pink lines represent Portland gains, the blue represent losses
The arrowheads also show direction of net flow
Salient patterns 1995-2000 The net inflow of
29,000 persons from California the largest.
The next largest flow, collectively, is the inflow from the east.
There is a net outflow to Las Vegas and Phoenix and collectively to the Mtn. South
There is a net outflow from Portland to the remainder of Oregon
Salient patterns 1985-1990
Portland gained in-migrants from just about everywhere except Seattle.
The gains from the remainder of Oregon were large.
There were gains from Phoenix, Las Vegas and the Mtn. South.
Data not presented for 1975-80
Salient patterns 1965-1970
The patterns of gains were similar to the 1985-1990 with large gains from California and the East
There were gains from the Mtn. North but almost none from the Mtn. South.
There were small losses to Seattle.
Salient patterns 1955-1960
Portland loses population to all regions of California, the Mtn. South region, and to Seattle
There are gains from the remainder of Oregon
The Swedes and Norwegians from Minnesota and Wisconsin just keep coming.
The composition of the migrant streams
Wineberg – “Do all trails lead to Oregon”, an analysis of the 1985-90 migration data
Immutables Age, race
Changeable characteristics Income, education, poverty status
A few examples are shown, based on 1995-2000 county to county migration tables
Are movers to Phoenix and Las Vegas mainly retirees?
Phoenix
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
05-09
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Group
Per
cent
Out Migration
In Migration
The largest number of movers between these two metro areas and Portland appear to be working age families and individuals
The migration from Portland to Las Vegas shows a large number of pre-retirement aged persons.
The migration from Portland to Phoenix shows a large number of retirement aged persons.
Las Vegas
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
05-09
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Group
Per
cent
Out Migration
In Migration
Where do Hispanics come from? 8,420 come from
California, especially from Los Angeles. An additional 21,600 come from abroad, mainly from Mexico
A modest number come from Washington and Oregon outside PDX.
There is net out-migration from Portland to the Southeast Region
Income of movers to and from PDX
To PDX - From PDX
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000
Average Income
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Spokane
Northeast
Southeast
East North Central
West North Central
Fresno
Mountain South*
Boise
San Diego
Mountain North*
West South Central
Washington*
Seattle
Alaska - Hawaii
Salt Lake City
Phoenix
Los Angeles
California*
Sacramento
Reno
Las Vegas
San Bern'o - Riverside
San Francisco
San Jose
From PDX
To PDX
Movers from PDX to San Jose to have considerably higher incomes than for San Jose to PDX movers.
The opposite is true for Spokane where Portland gains in higher income movers.
The San Jose – PDX movers have very high incomes in both directions, half again as high as those between PDX and Spokane.
Conclusions
Have tools available to easily extract migration stream data from the 1990 and 2000 census
Plan to expand paper into a monograph
Understanding the meaning and significance of the data is more difficult than extracting the data.
I welcome suggestions on variables of interest.
County to County Migration Tables
for the 1990 Census
1. RACE(5) BY HISPANIC ORIGIN(2) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(18) 2. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY PLACE OF BIRTH AND CITIZENSHIP(68) 3. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY PLACE OF BIRTH AND CITIZENSHIP(68) 4. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY TENURE(2) 5. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY TENURE(2) 6. RACE(5) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 7. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 8. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY INCOME IN 1989(11) 9. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY INCOME IN 1989(11) 10. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) BY TENURE(2) 11. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) BY TENURE(2) 12. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT(7) 13. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT(7) 14. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT(2) 15. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT(2) 16. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 17. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 18. SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY OCCUPATION(13) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 19. SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY INDUSTRY(17) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 20. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY TENURE(6) 21. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY TENURE(6)
Selected References Cortright, Joseph, Impresa Inc., ”The Economic Importance of Being Different:
Regional Variations in Tastes, Increasing Returns and the Dynamics of development, Economic Development Quarterly, Vol. 16 No. 1, February 2003, pp. 3-16.
Cortright, Joseph, Impressa Inc., The Young and the Restless, How Portland Competes for Talent, undertaken by Impressa Inc. for the Portland Development Commission, Westside Economic Alliance, City of Beaverton, City of Hillsboro, City of Tualatin, and Nike, 2007. See the CEO’s for Cities website <www.ceosforcities.org/conversations/smartcity/index.php>.
Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, Migration and its Impact on Southeast Michigan, 1990-2003, Detroit, Michigan, November 2004, <www.semcog.org>.
Howard Wineberg, Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon, 1985-1990, Population Research Center, Portland State University, 1995.
Contact information
Richard LycanPopulation Research CenterPortland State UniversityPortland, Oregon [email protected]
Copy of paper and additional maps available on CD