richard yamarone economic indicators to watch

Economic Indicators to Watch

What Are the Odds of a 2012 Recession? New York, NY

Monday, June 4, 2012

Richard Yamarone

Bloomberg Economic BRIEF

Author of “The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators”

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737 Twitter: @Yamarone

Richard Yamarone, [email protected], TEL: 212-617-8737

Economy Isn’t Advancing Fast Enough to Engender Job Creation

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2400

-2000

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

'85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11

Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Real GDP

NFP (lhs) GDP (rhs)

Payrolls ('000) GDP YOY%

Source: BEA, BLS, Bloomberg


Economy Operating Well Below its Potential

$5,500

$6,500

$7,500

$8,500

$9,500

$10,500

$11,500

$12,500

$13,500

$14,500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Potential GDP

Real GDP

Real GDP (Blns) vs. Real Potential GDP (Blns)

Source: BEA, CBO, Bloomberg

CBOPGDPR <Index>, GDP CHWG <Index>


Employment To Be a Slow Train Coming

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

'73 - '75

1980

'81 - '82

'90 - '91

2001

'07 - current

Nonfarm Payroll Creation From Onset of Recession

Source: BLS, NBER, Bloomberg Months


Employment To Be a Slow Train Coming -- II

peak-to-trough % jobs lost

Recession Date (months) total jobs lost (millions) months to job restoration peak-to-trough

Period 1 1948-49 11 2.34 22 5.17

1953-54 10 1.71 23 3.33

1957-58 8 2.22 20 4.17

1960-61 10 1.19 20 2.16

1969-70 11 1.04 18 1.46

1973-75 16 2.17 19 2.70

1980 6 1.16 10 1.20

1981-82 16 2.84 28 3.09

AVG: 11 1.83 20 2.91

Period 2 1990-91 8 1.62 32 1.40

2001 8 2.71 48 2.04

AVG: 8 2.16 40 1.72

Period 3 2007-09 (current) 18 8.31 ? 6.03


No Hiring by the Private Sector

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Unemployed Workers per Job Opening

Source: BLS, NBER,

shaded areas are

JOLTTOTL , USUETOT

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Total Private Hires, (thousands)

HIREPRIV Source: BLS, Bloomberg


No Words to Express this Stat

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Average Duration of Unemployment in Weeks

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics USDUMEAN <Index>


Little “Improvement” in Unemployment Benefit Claims

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Continuing, Emergency, and Extended Jobless Benefits ('000)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor INJCEUC, INJCEXB, INJCSP


Little Signs of Recovery…


Trusted Street Indicator Signaled ‘Double-Dip’

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Smoothed Growth Rate (%)

Source: ECRI, Bloomberg ECRWGROW <Index> <GO>


Economy Set for An ‘About-Face’

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

'85 '95 '05

Leading Economic Indicators (Y/Y%) vs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%)

Series2

LEI (rhs)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board

GDP CYOY <Index> <GO>, LEI TOTL <Index> <GO>


If GDP Dips to 2.0% -- It’s Recession Time

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Real GDP (Y/Y %)

Source: NBER, BEA, Bloomberg GDP CYOY <Index>


Robust Fed Index Points to Sub-Par Performance

-4.00

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Three Month Moving Average

CFNAI <Index>


Economic Deceleration Occurred During Early June

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Railcar Loads (lhs)

Real GDP (rhs)

Real GDP (Y/Y%) vs. Railcar Loads of Waste/Scrap (Y/Y%)

Source: Association of American Railroads, BEA, Bloomberg

RAILWAST <Index>


Manufacturing Gains Not Generating Jobs

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1995 2000 2005 2010

Mfg Jobs (lhs) IP (rhs)

Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing Jobs ('000)

Source: Federal Reserve, BLS USMMMANU <Index>, IP <Index>


It’s 1941 For Manufacturing

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

U.S. Manufacturing Employment (in thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics USMMMANU <Index>


Won’t Get Any Jobs from Housing

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Spending (lhs) Construction Jobs (rhs)

Residential Construction Spending ($ mls) Construction Employment (thousands)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg

USECTOT <Index>, CNSTRESI <Index>


This is what the Fed is Trying to Revive?

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010

Residential Investment as a Percent of GDP (%)

PFIVRESI <Index>, GDP CUR$ <Index> Source: BEA


Housing Depression Continues

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Applications Index

MBAVPRCH <Index>


Home Prices Falling Again

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

AZ-Phoenix

CA-Los Angeles

CA-San Diego

CA-San Francisco

CO-Denver

DC-Washington

FL-Miami

FL-Tampa

GA-Atlanta

IL-Chicago

MA-Boston

MI-Detroit

MN-Minneapolis

NC-Charlotte

NV-Las Vegas

NY-New York

OH-Cleveland

OR-Portland

TX-Dallas

WA-Seattle

S&P-Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller


Commercial Construction Slump

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Total U.S. Commercial Construction Spending ($ mlns)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau CNSTCOMM <Index>


Retailers Headed Out of the Malls

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2000 2003 2006 2009

Regional & Strip Mall Vacancies

Strip Mall Regional & Superregional Malls

Source: Reis Inc.


State & Local Governments May be a Ticking Time Bomb

4,750

4,800

4,850

4,900

4,950

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

13,000

13,200

13,400

13,600

13,800

14,000

14,200

14,400

14,600

14,800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Local (lhs)

State (rhs)

State & Local Government Employment (in thousands)

Source: BLS USEGSTSA <Index>, USEGLCSA <Index>

Earnings/Analyst Conference Calls

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Bloomberg Orange Book Summary of Commentary on ____________________

Current Economic

Conditions

By Corporation

from earning statements commencing July 1, 2010

NI ORANGEBOOK <GO>


What is Being Said…

“And so we're still seeing that midnight shopping in our stores when that EBT card, it's like a debit card, when it is ready and it is funded, there are people who are in the store at midnight because they know it turns on. And they have shopped from like 10:45 to midnight and they're waiting for that card and then our lines open up. And we've had some of our busiest ours at midnight.”

Rosalind Brewer, EVP, Wal-Mart April 12, 2011

“I think the most telling indicator for us that economic weakness and employment is the key issue driving soft volumes, is the fact that we continue to see, as – in contrast to the historical norms, we continue to see volume pick up heavily at the beginning of each month, and then steadily erode through the month, being particularly soft in the last week to 10 days of the month. That just tells us that people are running out of money.”

Gregg Engles, CEO Dean Foods May 10, 2011 “Now clearly when it gets to the end of the month and they've run out of dollars and the first of month gets there, you'll see some pick-up in sales. I would say it's not as dramatic as it was two years ago due mostly to the fact that not 100% of those benefits are getting loaded on to people's cards..”

J. Michael Schlotman, CFO, SVP Kroger May 17, 2011


It Pays to Read those 200 Transcripts…

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

GDP (lhs) Fed Ex Shipments (rhs)

Fed Ex Total US Package Shipments (Y/Y%) vs. Real GDP (Y/Y%)

Source: Federal Express, Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP Packages


Not Enough Fuel in the Tank

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Real Disposable Personal Incomes (Y/Y%)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


Not Enough Fuel in the Tank -- II

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Mining & Logging

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation & warehousing

Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Professional business svcs.

Education & Health

Lesiure & Hospitality

Other Services

Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y%) by Industry

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

PCED Inflaton 2.14%


What Happens When the Stimulus Ends?

$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

$10,000

$10,500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Real Dis Pers Inc Real Pers Inc Ex-Transfers

Government Stimulus Driving Incomes

Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg

Incomes in $ billions

PIDSDCWT <Index>, PIDSPINX <Index>


Recession Comparison of Real Incomes

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

'73 - '75 1980

'81 - '82 '90 - '91

2001 '07 - current

Real Incomes Ex-Transfers From Onset of Recession

Source: BLS, NBER, Bloomberg Months


Collapse In Credit Card Debt, Still Uncertain

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly Change in Consumer Revolving Debt ($ billions)

CICRRRTL <Index> Source: Federal Reserve


Persons Receiving Food Stamps at All-Time High

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Number of Participants

Source: U.S.D.A, Bloomberg FDS PNUM <Index>


There is No Holy Grail of Economic Indicators


‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Spending: Dining Out(Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDPMB <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five” – Jewelry & Watches

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y%

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDJRY <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Spending: Cosmetics & Perfumes (Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDCOS <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Spending: Women's & Girls' Clothing (Y/Y%)

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDWGC <Index> <GO>


‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y%

Source: BEA, NBER RPCEDCAS <Index> <GO>


Trade Picture isn’t Looking Too Encouraging…


Trade Helped During the Housing Bust, But No Longer Convincingly Contributor

-0.27

-1.13

-1.36 -1.18

-0.91

-0.62

-1.24 -1.43

-1.26

-0.55 -0.73

-1.21 -1.19

-0.6

0.42

-0.1

-0.41

0.5

-0.76

0.06

-0.06

0.09 0.03

0.25 0.4 0.44

0.1

-0.72

1.95

-0.25

0.42

1.55

2.22

0.38

2

0.79

-0.12

2.44

2.21

-0.59

0.15

-0.97

-1.97

-0.68

1.37

-0.34

0.24 0.43

-0.26

-0.01

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Contribution to GDP Residential Spending & Trade

Residential Trade

Source: BEA GDP %NETX <Index>, GDP%RES <Index>


Money Beginning to Enter Goods Market to ‘Chase too Few Goods’

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

C& I Loans Large Commercial Banks ($blns)

Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg ALCBLCID <Index>


Inflation Not A Primary Concern

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (Y/Y%)

PCED Core-PCED

Source: BEA, Bloomberg PCE YOY <Index>, PCE DEFY <Index>

richard yamarone economic indicators to watch

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