riesgos y oportunidades en el desarrollo …...wind & solar projects* *since 2012 200,000+ mw...
TRANSCRIPT
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RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES EN EL DESARROLLO
DE PLANTAS FV Y MINIREN ARGENTINA
BY: DANIEL BARANDALLA, SENIOR PM, DD SERVICES
UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2018. Proprietary & Confidential. 1
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2
100+Country locations of
UL renewable energy
customers
500+ UL Renewable
Energy Experts
Independent / Owner’s
Engineer on
450+ wind & solar projects*
*since 2012
200,000+ MWTotal renewable energy megawatts (MW) assessed
55+
ADVISED
90%of the wind and solar
industry’s top PROJECT
DEVELOPERS and
PLANT OWNERS
FORECAST PROVIDER for
72+ GWof installed renewable energy projects
Years of combined experience
in the renewable energy
industry
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3
WIND SOLAR
UL DRIVES TRUST IN RENEWABLES
OFFSHORE
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UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2018. Proprietary & Confidential. 4
Project
Development
Support
Asset
ManagementGrid
SolutionsDue Diligence
& Bankability
Testing &
InspectionCertification
Cybersecurity
Software &
DataEnergy
Storage
Solutions
Research &
Advanced
Studies
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GLOBAL CONTEXT SOLAR PV
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REGIONAL CONTEXT SOLAR PV
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REGIONAL CONTEXT SOLAR PV
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Anticipate Risks from early
stage development
Propose the needed
mitigations
Make sure these are taking
place
UL SERVICES SOLAR PV
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UL SERVICES SOLAR PV
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1-18 months 4-24 months >25 years
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Distribution of Risk accross Project lifetime
STAKEHOLDER RISK
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Stakeholder Risk
Developer/Owner/
Operator
• Meeting investor expectation
• Rising operating costs
Investor/Lenders• Inaccurate risk assessment
• Declining Cash Flow
EPC/Contractors
• Rising costs
• Project delays
• Quality of work
Insurer• Performance uncertainty
• Equipment failures and lost production
Manufacturer • Warranty
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TECHNICAL RISK
ASSESSMENT
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▌ On-Site Monitoring Recommendations
▌ Solar Data Assessment Dashboard
▌ Long-Term Resource Assessment Approaches
▌ Modeled Solar Data
▌ TMYs - Scaling and Rebalancing
RESOURCE BEST PRACTICES
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ON-SITE MONITORING EQUIPMENT
Typical Monitoring equipment
• Two secondary-standard pyranometers (Kipp
& Zonen, Hukseflux)
• Supporting met measurements (temp, wind
speed, etc.)
• Reference cells for soiling
• Albedometers for bifacial applications
• Heating and ventilation in cold climates
System providers
• Campbell Scientific
• NRG Systems (2016)13
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WHEN TO USE ON-SITE MONITORING
Recommended when
1. Minimal regional data is available (certain areas in Latin America)
2. Satellite models tend to have higher uncertainty (dynamic weather
variability, snow cover, areas with microclimates due to topography)
3. Low resource locations (financial margins are narrower)
4. Local off-taker requirements
5. Larger projects (50-500 MW) when financers may be more
conservative with larger investment capital.
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MODELED SOLAR DATA
Modeled Solar Data
• Bankable from high-quality data providers
• Regional and seasonal biases still exist
Resource Uncertainty
• Uncertainty should include validation
reference uncertainty
• Monte Carlo sampling approach under
predicts inter-annual variability
• CPR TGYs are raw (scaling and rebalancing
needed)15
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VALUE OF ON-SITE MEASUREMENTS
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▌ PV Modules
▌ Inverters
▌ Racking and Trackers
EQUIPMENT
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TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MODULES
Long term durability
• Laboratory Tests, IEC and UL tests
• Field tests
• Component lifespan (backsheets, connectors, wires
etc.)
Long term performance
• Long term degradation rates
• System performance monitoring
Warranties and replacement
• Warranty claims, testing, availability of replacement modules, MLPE
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UL TEST STANDARDS
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• Certifications
• IEC 61215→Field performance of modules
• IEC 61730→Safety agains electrical shock, fire and other hazards
• IEC 61701→Resistance from salt corrosion
• IEC 62716→Resistance from ammonia corrosion
• IEC 60068→Resistance to sand storms required for desertic areas
• IEC 62804→Potential Induced Degradation (“PID”)
• UL1703 → Standard for Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Modules and Panels
• Module tests
• Light Induced Degradation (LID), flash tests, reliability testsUL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2017. Proprietary & Confidential. 20
TECHNOLOGY REVIEW - MODULES
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – PV MODULES
Is IEC 61646 & 61215 enough?
• Certification results based on a small population. Not Representative of
the manufacturing capacity.
• Do the tests replicate properly conditions that the modules will
withstand on real conditions?
• Do the test replicate extreme conditions that the modules could have
under normal operating conditions?
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – PV MODULES
Is IEC 61646 & 61215 enough?
• Accelerated life tests for IEC standards have been shown to
underestimate some issues arising in outdoor exposure.
Track record of the manufacturer and its internal quality processes are important to have confidence in the durability of the module.
Factory Acceptance Tests, witnessing manufacturing and QA for the
modules to be supplied to the Project should be pursued.
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PV stakeholder testing needs and UL
services to meet them.
EVALUATION AND TESTING OF PV MODULES
Safety
• Declare non-hazardous failure conditions
Quality
• Consistency in production
Performance
• Achieve standard test conditions
Durability
• Performs at extreme conditions
Reliability
• Lifetime performance as expected
Compliance to
Standards• UL1703
• IEC 61730
• Other market access
Compliance
to Standards• Factory
Surveillance
• IECRE OD-
405
UL Best
Practice• Statistical
sampling
• Accelerated
lifetime testing
(TC, HF, DH,
DML, UV)
UL Best
Practice• Degradation
modeling (site
specific)
• Pre-ship
evaluations
• On-site As-
received
evaluations
• Specialized
Audits
• In-process batch
testing
Compliance to
Standards• IEC 61215*
• LID
• PID
• PAN File
• IAM
• Sand blast
• Corrosion
• Others
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UNDERSTANDING FAILURE RATES
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• Infant mortality is usually identified
within ~2-3 months
• Resolution can take
significantly longer
• No easy prediction for when or where component failures will
occur
• Costs of failures in part defines the
useful life of the plant
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TYPICAL MODULE FAILURES
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – PV MODULES
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – PV MODULES
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW
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• mono PERC is the new cell standard? the latest record efficiency PERC
cell of 23.95% was announced by JinkoSolar, followed by a 23.6% cell
from LONGi Solar. LID / LeTID ?
• Half cells is a simple but very effective means to increase module power.
By cutting the cell into two parts, resistance losses can be reduced, providing a power boost of about 5 to 6 W on the module level.
• Shingle modules are, like half-cut cells, also based on cell slicing – not
into two pieces but several strips. Cell strips are connected in as shingle
manner, similar to roof tiles, which can improve module efficiency by up to
nearly 2%.
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – WHATS COMING?
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• Bifacial technology unveils the rear side of a PV module for sunlight
absorption. The gain varies between 5 and 30%, depending on various
aspects.
• Glass-glass modules are typically advertised with 30-year performance
warranties, but their share is for a number of reasons still very small compared to glass-backsheet modules.
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TECHNOLOGY REVIEW – WHATS COMING?
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TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INVERTERS
Durability
• Failure rates of major components
• Environment
• Operating conditions
• Time to repair/replace components
• Component lifespan (Electrolytic capacitors, IGBT’s,
etc.)
Performance
• Long term performance degradation?
Repairing inverters
• Field repair vs. field replacement
• Availability of components vs. replacement inverters
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INVERTER TECHNOLOGY
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Implementation
Central• Large (> 5 MW) PV plants
• Grid support functions including reactive
power support and LVRT
String• Typically residential and small commercial
• Beginning to be seen on large (> 50 MW)
plants
MLPE
(Microinverters, DC optimizers)
• Rooftop installations (required by 2014
NEC and Canadian Electrical Code)
Grid integration of
Different Technologies
• Central inverters have been tested to
IEEE 1547 and can provide Grid support
functions
• String inverters have not been field
proven yet
• MLPE typically not seen with grid support
functions
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PV SYSTEM TRACKERS
• Most commonly used for large utility scale PV systems
• Some residential sized trackers are manufactured
• Typically used up to about 40° north (south) latitude
• Geo-Tech studies required as part of design process
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CAPEX DIFFERENCES
• Trackers have approximately a 5-10% price premium
• Warranties cover structure (typically 10 years) and drive and control components
(typically 5 years)
• Land preparation is typically more intense as trackers have limited ability to handle
slopes
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O&M DIFFERENCES
• Fixed tilt installations require minimal maintenance activities
• OPEX costs are approximately 2-5% higher for trackers
• Trackers require adjustments, lubrication and visual inspections
• Tracker control equipment is typically warranted for 5 years
• Corrosivity of the soils and galvanized coating of structural components
determines effective life of mounting system
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UL PV STANDARDS FOR SAFETY CERTIFICATION
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PV Modules
• IEC 61215
• UL 1703
• UL/IEC 61730
BIPV
• UL 1703 / UL 790
• UL-SU 7103
Connector• UL 6703
Fuse
• UL-SU 2579
Fuse Holder
• UL-SU 4248-18
• ANSI-UL4248-1
Combiner Box
Charge Controller
Inverter
BatteriesAC Loads
Grid Tied or Stand
Alone
Many of the components or
functions can be built into one
product, such as the inverter.
PV Modules w / Junction Box Rack Mounting & Clamping
Devices
• UL 2703
Solar Trackers• UL 3703
Fire Test
• UL 1703
(roof mounted modules)
Polymeric Materials
• UL 1703/61730
• UL 94
• UL-SU5703• UL 746A/B/C
Roof or Ground mounted
Cable for PV
• UL 4703
• UL 9703
• UL 854 (USE-2)
Combiner Box
• UL 1741
Charge Controller
• UL 1741
Inverter
• UL 1741/SA
• UL/IEC 62109 (PV+ only)
• IEEE 1547
Storage
• UL 1989
• UL 2054
• UL 9540
• UL 1973
Disconnects
• UL-SU 98B
• UL-SU 508i
Circuit Breakers• UL 489B
Arc Fault Protection
• UL 1699B
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TECHNICAL RISK
ASSESSMENT
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EPC BEST PRACTICES (1)
• Experience is everything
• Challenges with the “oversight and subcontract model”
• Short timelines
• Capability oversight
• Align Schedule across all contract requirements (very few “Full Wrap” contracts)
• Interconnection requirements
• PPA cliff dates
• Supply agreements
• O&M scope
• Regular Construction Monitoring
• Ensure all construction is inline with warranty requirements
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EPC BEST PRACTICES (2)
• Clear testing protocols
• Commissioning testing to confirm proper operation
• Performance test to validate committed energy production
• Overlap period defined between EPC and O&M provider
• Project benefits when EPC is the O&M for at least 2-3 years
• Warranties
• 1-5 years in workmanship
• Performance guarantees and LDs are key to identify and implement claims
• Challenges in defining fault (equipment, installation, design, etc.)
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TECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYSTEM DESIGN
REVIEW
• Suitability of equipment for location and design
• Review of DC and AC electrical design
• Mechanical design review of foundations, mounting systems and other structures
• Performance and commissioning testing review
• Review of O&M procedures and schedule
• Construction Monitoring
• Post installation inspection
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COMPONENTS INCLUDED IN CIVIL DESIGN REVIEW
• Internal roads, fencing, and drainage system verification
• Hydrological and hydraulic design review including peak flows, flow model, erosion
and sedimentation damage control, etc.
• Main equipment logistics (solar modules, tracker, inverters, main transformers, etc.)
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FIELD EXAMPLES
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Limited erosion control Remediation
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• Drainage / Structural / Getotechnical / Hydrological
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DESIGN REVIEW – CIVIL / ELECTRICAL
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• Drainage / Structural / Getotechnical / Hydrological
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DESIGN REVIEW – CIVIL / ELECTRICAL
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O&M/AM BEST PRACTICES (1)
• Experience is everything
• Clearly defined scope of work across all contracts
• Adequate visual inspection protocol for PM visits
• Response time guarantees for downtime events
• Monitoring and data analysis
• A strong Asset Management team can offset a weaker O&M team
• Monitoring system for advanced fault detections and issue isolation
• Performance calculation equation and assumptions
• Correcting for actual environmental conditions (irradiance, soiling,
snow, temperature)
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O&M/AM BEST PRACTICES (2)
• Cost savings of using same development team for O&M and AM are often
offset by
• conflict of interest around plant performance issues
• increased vendor bankability risk
• Intelligent cleaning of modules (snow and dirt)
• Alignment between AM and O&M teams on spare part management
• Warranties
• Availability and performance guarantees are crucial to optimal yield
• Very limited beyond contract term
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CHALLENGES DURING OPERATION
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CHALLENGES DURING OPERATION
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CONCLUSION
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UL can support your Project to succeed by:
1. Preparing a good tender for RFP
2. Defining a suitable technology verification program
3. Review of engineering practices applied during construction
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GRACIAS!
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TYPICAL COMPONENT FAILURES/ISSUES
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Component Issues Mitigation
Inverter
Control system malfunction
Not operating to spec sheet
IGBTs, Fans, Trips, Grid code compliance
Manufacturing quality reviews
Quality warranty coverage
Engineering design controls
Commissioning/Acceptance testing
Well defined O&M scope
Trackers
Tracking inaccuracy
Damage due to not going into stow
Vibrational/motion damage to modules
Cabling and powering
Frost heave
Detailed Performance monitoring
Optimized PM
Commissioning quality control
Site design
Geotechnical studies
Fixed Tilt
Ground shift creating mismatch
Frost heave
Corrosion
Incorrect torque on module clamping
Optimized PM
Commissioning quality control
Site design
Geotechnical studies
Sensors
Incorrect calibration of sensors
Sensor misalignment
Over-soiling relative to modules
Well defined O&M scope
Detailed performance monitoring
Commissioning quality control