rim japan products report · 2019-05-16 · recx-22 index friday was 154.29, down 0.52 points from...

RIM CRUDE/CONDENSATE INTELLIGENCE DAILY

NO.4728 Apr 04 2014

Copyright (C) 2014 RIM Intelligence Co. All rights reserved.

--Tokyo, 14:30 Apr 04 2014

Information

RIM to stop assessments for Chinese Xi Jiang and Panyu

RIM Intelligence will end assessments for Chinese Xi Jiang and Panyu in the

Physial Crude (Asia) as of April 16. If you have any inquries, please contact

our crude/condensate team.

Tel: 813-3552-2411, E-Mail:[email protected]

Redesign of RIM Website

On April 7, 2014, Rim Intelligence will launch a newly designed website that

will offer a more comprehensive front-page with active and rolling banners

displaying current and future events taking place in the Energy Markets.

Access to market news, daily RIM market reports and other vital market

information will be just a click away. Should you have any questions about

the new design, functionality or access, please do not hesitate to contact

us.

RECX-22 index Friday was 154.29, down 0.52 points from the previous day

Starting Oct 15, 2013, Rim Intelligence Co began publishing an in-house developed

index to be applied as a broad-based economic indicator. Known as the RIM Energy

Composite Index or RECX-22, the index is derived from daily price assessments

of crude oil, petroleum products, LPG, LNG and a wide range of petrochemicals.

The basis for the index, 100, was formed on data sets from 2010.

[RIM Reports] *Please click on the following links to see samples of each type of

report: Samples are not today's issue:

Bunker LPG LNG Petrochemical Products

RIM Data File Petrochemical Data RIM Website (Chinese Ver.)

RIM

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https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/uploaded/report/sample/BKE110617.pdf

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/uploaded/report/sample/lpg111003.pdf

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/uploaded/report/sample/ELNG110616.pdf

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/uploaded/report/sample/PCE110617.pdf

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/uploaded/report/sample/pre110801.pdf

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/first/report

https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/first/report

http://www.rimbj.com/

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RIM INTELLIGENCE CRUDE/CONDENSATE 3 F , Y a e s u D o r i H a t a B l d g , 1 - 9 - 8 H a t c h o b o r i , C h u o - k u , T o k y o , 1 0 4 - 0 0 3 2 J a p a n Tel:3552-2411 Fax:3552-2415 Singapore Office TEL:65-6345-9894 FAX:65-6345-9894

TOKYO SPOT CRUDE ASSESSMENTS (04Apr14)

--Cash Crude

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

WTI - 100.51-100.56 99.82- 99.87 99.01- 99.06 98.11- 98.16

BFO - 106.19-106.24 106.12-106.17 105.90-105.95 105.55-105.60

DTD Brt 105.64-105.69 105.83-105.88 105.78-105.83 105.55-105.60 105.05-105.10

Dubai - - 103.00-103.05 102.67-102.72 102.32-102.37

Spreads

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

WTI/BFO / -5.71/ -5.66 -6.33/ -6.28 -6.92/ -6.87 -7.47/ -7.42

BFO/Dubai / / 3.09/ 3.14 3.20/ 3.25 3.20/ 3.25

Oman/Dubai / / 0.14/ 0.19 0.17/ 0.22 0.19/ 0.24

Intermonth Spreads

Apr/May May/Jun Jun/Jul Jul/Aug Aug/Sep

BFO / 0.04/ 0.09 0.19/ 0.24 0.32/ 0.37 0.48/ 0.53

Dubai / / 0.30/ 0.35 0.32/ 0.37 0.36/ 0.41

Oman* / / -0.02/ 0.02 -0.02/ 0.02 -0.02/ 0.02

*Intermonth spreads of Oman is Premium/discounts to OSP(MOG)

--Paper Crude

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Dubai 103.00-103.04 102.67-102.71 102.32-102.36 101.93-101.97 101.53-101.57

DME/Dubai 0.13/ 0.21 0.16/ 0.24 0.18/ 0.26 0.24/ 0.32 0.28/ 0.36

Murban swp 3.90/ 4.05 3.90/ 4.05 3.90/ 4.10 / /

DTD/Dubai 2.62/ 2.66 3.14/ 3.18 3.44/ 3.48 3.60/ 3.64 3.50/ 3.54

*DME/Dubai is the spread between DME Oman swap and Dubai swap.

--Physical Crude (AG)

--June-- Outright value Premium

Dubai* + 103.00-103.05 + - 0.66/ 0.71 -

Oman + 103.17-103.22 + 0.04/ 0.09

Oman* + 103.17-103.22 + + 0.83/ 0.88 +

Murban + 106.32-106.37 + + -0.02/ 0.03 +

Lower Zakum + 106.00-106.05 + + -0.07/-0.02 +

Umm Shaif + 105.29-105.34 + + -0.10/-0.05 +

Upper Zakum + 102.99-103.04 + + -0.02/ 0.03 +

Qatar Land + 105.21-105.26 + + -0.20/-0.15 +

Qatar Marine + 104.25-104.30 + + -0.07/-0.02 +

Al Shaheen* + 103.17-103.22 + + 0.83/ 0.88 +

Arab Medium** + 102.10-102.15 + -0.52/-0.47

Basrah Light + 102.20-102.25 + -0.17/-0.12

D.F.Condensate* + 103.19-103.24 + 0.85/ 0.90

L.S.Condensate* + 102.29-102.34 + -0.05/ 0.00

Masila*** + 108.18-108.23 + 2.40/ 2.50

Marib Light*** + 108.38-108.43 + 2.60/ 2.70

Iran Light + 104.86-104.91 +

Iran Heavy + 102.54-102.59 +

--July-- Outright value Premium

Dubai* + 102.67-102.72 + + 0.72/ 0.77 +

3


Oman + 102.87-102.92 + 0.04/ 0.09

Oman* + 102.87-102.92 + + 0.92/ 0.97 +

*Premium for Dubai, Oman, Al Shaheen and D.F.Condensate, L.S.Condensate are over Dubai

quote

**Premium for Arab Medium is over Aramco formula for Arab medium

***Premium for Masila and Marib Light are over Dated Brent

-Premium for all other grades are over each OSP

-D.F.Condensate is Deodrised Field condensate

--Physical Crude (Africa)

--May-- Outright value Premium

Bonny light* + 107.93-108.03 + 2.10/ 2.20

Brass River* + 107.73-107.83 + 1.90/ 2.00

Qua Iboe* + 108.63-108.73 + 2.80/ 2.90

Agbami* + 107.53-107.63 + 1.70/ 1.80

Cabinda* + 106.58-106.68 + 0.75/ 0.85

Djeno* + 103.53-103.63 + -2.30/-2.20

Girassol* + 107.38-107.48 + 1.55/ 1.65

Hungo* + 104.08-104.18 + -1.75/-1.65

Nemba* + 104.28-104.38 + -1.55/-1.45

Dalia* + 103.58-103.68 + -2.25/-2.15

Pazflor* + 104.18-104.28 + -1.65/-1.55

Zafiro* + 105.78-105.88 + -0.05/ 0.05

Doba* + 99.13- 99.23 + -6.70/-6.60

Nile Blend** + 101.50-101.60 + -3.50/-3.40

Dar Blend* + 98.03- 98.13 + -7.80/-7.70

* All premium are over Dated Brent

** Premium is over Minas ICP on FOB basis.

--Physical Crude (Other)

--June-- Outright value Premium

Sokol* + 109.02-109.12 + 6.70/ 6.80

Vityaz* + 107.92-108.02 + 5.60/ 5.70

ESPO** + 106.47-106.57 + 4.15/ 4.25

Azeri*** + 111.48-111.58 + 5.70/ 5.80

Urals**** + 107.83-107.93 + 2.05/ 2.15

Forties**** + 110.08-110.18 + 4.30/ 4.40

*Premium for Sokol and Vityaz is over Dubai quote on CFR Yosu.

**Premium for ESPO is over Dubai quote on FOB Kozmino.

***Premium for Azeri is over DTD Brent on CFR South East Asia.

****Premiums for Urals and Forties are over DTD Brent on CFR North East Asia.

--Physical Crude (Asia)


Minas + 108.00-108.10 + 3.00/ 3.10

Cinta + 106.45-106.55 + 2.40/ 2.50

Widuri + 106.55-106.65 + 2.60/ 2.70

Duri + 102.55-102.65 + 3.90/ 4.00

Lalang + 105.75-105.85 + 0.80/ 0.90

Handil Mix + 102.65-102.75 + 3.80/ 3.90

4


Attaka + 104.85-104.95 + 3.85/ 3.95

Belida + 109.65-109.75 + 3.55/ 3.65

Ardjuna + 101.50-101.60 + 2.80/ 2.90

Arun Con + 104.25-104.35 + - 0.55/ 0.65 -

Walio + 99.40- 99.50 + 2.75/ 2.85

Senipah Con + 104.45-104.55 + - 0.75/ 0.85 -

*All premium are over the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP)

--Indonesian Crude Basket Prices--

Indonesian Light Crude Basket Price + 105.72-105.82 +

Indonesian Medium Crude Basket Price + 107.00-107.10 +

Indonesian Medium-Heavy Crude Basket Price + 105.89-105.99 +

--Rim Special Crude Basket Prices--

Crude Basket Price for China Products* + 105.03-105.13 +

*The average price of Dubai, DTD Brent, Cinta, to which the Chinese government refers

when adjusting domestic retail prices for refined products.


Tapis* + 110.83-110.93 + 5.00/ 5.10

Labuan* + 113.23-113.33 + 7.40/ 7.50

Kikeh* + 112.63-112.73 + 6.80/ 6.90

Miri* + 112.73-112.83 + 6.90/ 7.00

Gippsland* + 106.23-106.33 + 0.40/ 0.50

Thevenard* + 111.83-111.93 + 6.00/ 6.10

Mutineer Exeter* + 111.93-112.03 + 6.10/ 6.20

Cossack* + 106.03-106.13 + 0.20/ 0.30

NWS Con* + 102.53-102.63 + - -3.30/-3.20 -

Laminaria* + 102.38-102.48 + - -3.45/-3.35 -

Kitan* + 103.43-103.53 + - -2.40/-2.30 -

Varanus* + 105.93-106.03 + 0.10/ 0.20

Le Gendre* + 111.58-111.68 + 5.75/ 5.85

Kutubu* + 107.88-107.98 + 2.05/ 2.15

Daqing*** + 107.68-107.78 + 2.70/ 2.80

Xi Jiang**** + 105.85-105.95 + 0.85/ 0.95

Panyu**** + 105.75-105.85 + 0.75/ 0.85

Enfield* + 112.53-112.63 + 6.70/ 6.80

Sty Barrow* + 112.33-112.43 + 6.50/ 6.60

Vincent* + 108.88-108.98 + 3.05/ 3.15

Pyrenees* + 111.33-111.43 + 5.50/ 5.60

Van Gogh* + 108.88-108.98 + 3.05/ 3.15

Bach Ho* + 108.63-108.73 + 2.80/ 2.90

Rang Dong* + 108.93-109.03 + 3.10/ 3.20

Su Tu Den* + 109.38-109.48 + 3.55/ 3.65

T.G.T* + 108.03-108.13 + 2.20/ 2.30

Chim Sao* + 110.98-111.08 + 5.15/ 5.25

Seria Light + 110.88-110.98 +

*Premiums are over Dated Brent.

***Premium for Daqing is over OSP.

5


****Premiums for Xi Jiang and Panyu are over Minas ICP.

NYMEX FUTURES (03Apr14)

-WTI Crude

May Jun Jul Aug

Settle 100.29 99.63 98.84 97.95

Change +0.67 +0.73 +0.80 +0.81

Open 99.29 98.64 97.72 96.79

High 100.49 99.82 98.97 98.09

Low 99.07 98.39 97.55 96.65

Estimated Volume: 420,823 Open Interest(Apr 02) : 1,649,934

ICE BRENT CRUDE FUTURES (03Apr14)

May Jun Jul Aug

Settle 106.15 106.09 105.91 105.59

Change +1.36 +1.32 +1.29 +1.25

Open 104.59 104.59 104.43 104.10

High 106.32 106.24 106.05 105.70

Low 104.45 104.41 104.22 103.92

Waited avg105.32 105.17 104.92 104.47

Estimated Volume: 672,102 Open Interest(Apr 02) : 1,493,537

TOCOM MIDEAST CRUDE FUTURES (04Apr14)(Yen/kl)

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Change +770 +810 +750 +750 +820 +820

Volume 37 32 31 125 439 1,053

Open 67,230 67,020 66,760 66,470 66,150 65,970

High 67,420 67,150 66,860 66,550 66,300 66,060

Low 67,230 67,010 66,760 66,440 66,150 65,910

Settle 67,410 67,100 66,820 66,540 66,280 66,050

Open Interest(Apr 03):11,954 1lot = 50kl

Exchange rate :103.91

TRANSACTIONS REPORTED ON THE DAY

North Sea/Africa/Russia crude/condensate (Apr 3)

May Saturno: Angolan producer to Chinese oil firm at below DTD -$5/bbl (950kb), P&C

to Chinese oil firm at below DTD -$5/bbl (950kb)

Arabian Gulf crude/condensate (Apr 3)

Jun Upper Zakum: Shell to Vitol at fixed prices (500kb)

Asia-Pacific crude/condensate (Apr 3)

May NWSC: Perto Diamond to P&C at a discount more than $3/bbl to DTD (end May loading

650kb)

MARKET COMMENTARY

--Benchmark Crude Summary, Apr 4 2014

The front-month April Brent crude oil futures contract in electronic trading on the

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as of 14:30 Tokyo time on Friday was trading at

$106.21/bbl, up by $1.31/bbl from the same time the previous day.

Supply jitters for Libyan crude resurfaced after the Libyan government denied

6


information that the government will agree with anti-government groups in East Libya

to resume operations at loading ports.

The May Dated Brent price, the benchmark for regional and arbitrage grades, as of 14:30

Tokyo time rose sharply by $1.35/bbl to $105.85/bbl. The June contract was up $1.25/bbl

at $105.80/bbl. The Dated to Front Line (DFL) for May shrank to minus 20cts/bbl while

the June contract recovered to around plus 5cts/bbl.

The June Dubai paper, the benchmark price for Middle Eastern crude grades and Far East

grades, advanced $1.00/bbl from the same period the previous day to $102.34/bbl. In the

trade of inter-month spreads, the May/June spread was offered at 38cts/bbl. In the trade

of Brent/Dubai EFS, the May contract was bid at $3.48/bbl, while the contract was offered

at $3.55/bbl. May WTI, the benchmark crude for US and South American grades, rose

$1.11/bbl to $100.53/bbl.

As for the market outlook for Brent crude next week, “the front-month contract is likely

to move within $106 and $108/bbl,” said Hirotaka Yamaoka, fund manager at Bansei Asset

Management. The market is keenly awaiting an announcement of US jobs data to be released

late on Friday, through the market could be influenced by Libyan situations.

--AG CRUDE

Flat prices for June-loading Middle Eastern crude grades bounced back sharply, mirroring

a gain in the benchmark Dubai papers. In floating based trade, discounts of Abu Dhabi

grades led by Murban narrowed sharply. The March-loading official selling prices (OSPs)

were trimmed significantly, wiping out a sense that those grades were expensive. Abu

Dhabi National Oil Co or ADNOC changed the Murban supply system to its equity holders

since January loading this year, but the move somewhat distorted the spot market and

OSPs were eventually settled higher. But such ADNOC pricings have entered a turning point

and OSPs tended to be settled in line with market fundamentals as previously. The supply

system for Murban from July-loading onward was yet to be finalized.

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco announced that it raised the May-loading OSP

formula for its flagship Arab Light (AL) for Asia by 30cts/bbl from the previous month.

The gain came after backwardation in the benchmark Dubai papers widened from the previous

month and was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s light and heavy

price gap was largely steady from the previous month as no major changes were detected

in product markets like naphtha, gasoil and fuel oil. The price for the country’s light

grade Arab Extra Light (AEL) was raised by 40cts/bbl, the largest among Saudi grades,

from the previous month. OSP for other grades were increased by 20-30cts/bbl from the

previous month.

Spot differentials for June-loading Abu Dhabi Murban were quoted at a discount of

2cts/bbl to a premium of 3cts/bbl to OSP, up 20cts/bbl from the previous month. Abu Dhabi

National Oil Co or ADNOC set the March-loading Murban OSP at a premium of $3.98/bbl to

Dubai quotes. The OSP was reduced by 93cts/bbl against Dubai quotes from the previous

month, exceeding market forecasts and revising downward by $1.75/bbl over the past two

months. The price gap between Saudi Arabia’s AEL as mentioned above was largely wiped

out, enhancing the evaluations for the new OSP from end-users. A few market sources said

that June business could start in positive territory to OSP.

7


Spot differentials for June-loading Abu Dhabi Upper Zakum were at a discount of 2cts/bbl

to a premium of 3cts/bbl to OSP, up 10cts/bbl from the previous month. The March-loading

OSP for Upper Zakum was at a premium of 88cts/bbl to Dubai quotes, down 78cts/bbl from

the previous month. The pricing reduced a sense that Upper Zakum was pricy relative to

a rival Oman crude, so that a Chinese oil firm source believed that the June-loading

values for Upper Zakum were at premiums to OSP. In addition, Royal Dutch Shell sold one

cargo of Upper Zakum, the second cargo for this month, to European Vitol. Like the cargo

the previous time sold to China National United Oil Corp (Chinail), 20 physical Dubai

cargoes, each 25,000bbl were sold at fixed prices and the settlement grade was switched

to Upper Zakum.

Meanwhile, ADNOC announced the OSP for Das grade for March-loading for the first time.

The crude is a new grade to blend Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif, and the grade has not been

sold yet. ADNOC at this stage planned to sell the crude from July-loading. “ADNOC set

an transition period and unveiled the OSP before the start of sales in a bid to seek

reactions from end-users,” said an oil refiner source in Northeast Asia. The OSPs for

Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif were expected to be abolished after sales of the Das grade

started.

In the trade of Middle Eastern condensates, Qatar International Petroleum Marketing Co

or TASWEEQ and European Vitol had unsettled avails for May-loading Deodrised Field

Condensate (D.F.C) for May-loading. A majority of end-users in Asia already fulfilled

requirements, so that these unsettled cargoes would be hard to find keen buyers unless

the prices are at a premiums of smaller than $1/bbl to Dubai quotes.

In the trade of DME Oman, the June contract was bid at $101.64/bbl as of 16:30 Tokyo

time on Thursday, countered by an offer at $101.74/bbl. The gap between the mean

($101.69/bbl) and June Dubai swaps were at 53cts/bbl in favor of Oman. The June contract

ended at $102.47/bbl in Asian trading on Wednesday.

--AFRICAN/EUROPEAN/RUSSIAN/AMERICANS CRUDE/CONDENSATE

Flat prices of May-loading West African and Mediterranean grades rose sharply, mirroring

a gain in the benchmark Dated Brent prices. In floating based trade, no major changes

were detected as May-loading business for African grades and Far Eastern grades such

as ESPO were largely completed. As for May-Angolan grades, Sautuno was all sold out,

leaving only a handful of cargoes uncommitted.

In the trade of May-loading Angolan grades, all six cargoes of Saturno were traded. A

majority of these cargoes were placed to China, though British BP, the operator, took

back its cargo to its own refining system. Prices for these cargoes were heard at

discounts of the $5/bbl level to Dated Brent. Elsewhere, Angolan producer Sonangol had

one cargo each for Kissanje and Saxi in hand. In addition, one cargo of Cabinda was still

in the hands of US Chevron.

Pertamina Energy Service (PES), a unit of Indonesia’s Pertammina, purchased Azerbaijan’s

Azeri for 1 million bbl from British BP for June arrival as reported. It turned out that

PES secured the cargo in the first tender, instead of the second tender that closed on

Wednesday. It was initially believed that the first tender was cancelled. The award

details in the second tender were yet to emerge as of 16:00 Tokyo time.

8


In the trade of arbitrage condensates, increased volumes of Libya’s Melittah condensate

were heard allocated to term lifters such as a European trader in the wake of rising

production, according to a few market sources. Under the circumstances, some of term

lifters could try to bring the condensate to the Asian market.

--ASIA PACIFIC CRUDE

Flat prices for May-loading regional grades strengthened, tracking a recovery in the

benchmark Dated Brent prices. In May-loading floating based trade linked to Dated Brent

and ICP, a sense of abundant supplies for condensate persisted. NWSC changed hands, but

several May-loading cargoes such as Laminaria, Pluto and Bayu Undan were uncommitted.

Among medium/heavy grades, some Vietnamese grades like Su Tu Den and Indonesian grades

were still on offer.

In the trade of May-loading regional condensates, Petro Diamond, a subsidiary of

Mitsubishi Corp, sold one NWSC cargo for late-month loading. The details about the buyer

were unknown but it was highly likely that the price was at a discount of more than $3/bbl

to Dated Brent. With no signs of a recovery for naphtha crack spreads, demand/supply

balance for regional condensates slackened as arbitrage condensates such as Mellitah

condensate was on offer. Falling demand from US Exxon Mobil, a main buyer, as mentioned

below, also hampered a recovery in fundamentals for regional condensates.

US Exxon Mobil’s ethylene production facility with an annual production of 1 million

tons in Singapore faced a glitch this week, thus, the major apparently reduced intakes

of oil products and crude oil like naphtha and condensate. The major earlier trimmed

purchases of Middle Eastern crude grades and condensates due to troubles at some

desulfurization unit at its 605,000 barrels per day (b/d) refinery in Singapore.

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas planned to shut a condensate splitter at its

40,000b/d Kerteh refinery in May, according to a few market sources. The period of the

closure was unknown, but because of the closure the Malaysian oil firm cancelled taking

the May-loading NWSC owned by Petro Diamond as mentioned above.

In the trade of May-loading Vietnamese grades, potential spot avails for May-loading

Bach Ho, Te Giac Trang (T.G.T) and Su Tu Den were still available, but spot cargoes for

other grades were mostly committed. Meanwhile, the outlook for June-loading Vietnamese

grades largely hinges on demand/supply balance fr Bach Ho.

Regarding June-loading Bach Ho as mentioned above, Vietnam’s state-owned PV Oil is highly

likely to release spot avails for at least 1.2 million bbl. PV Oil would shut its 145,000

barrels per day (b/d) Dung Quat refinery in early May for regular maintenance, creating

excess avails that were normally injected to the refinery and the avails would be released

in the international market. A majority of market sources believed that the regular

maintenance would be completed by the end of June, making most market players believe

that the volumes to be released in June would not be as big as May-loadings. But a Japanese

trading house source says, “We are checking the situations as Bach Ho for more than 3

million barrels could be released.” The current production for Bach Ho hovered at around

130,000 barrels per day (b/d). For May-loading, PV Oil was believed to have eventually

sold about 4 million bbl, larger than its initial plan of 3.6 million bbl. As a result,

it was believed that the company released all of the produced Bach Ho and inventories

as May-loading.

9


Meanwhile, PV Oil issued a sell tender for term Su Tu Den for the June to December period.

Buyers were requested to make bids at minimum volumes of 6,700 barrels per day. The tender

will close on April 11. For the January to June-loading Su Tu Den, three companies

including Petro Diamond and Sumitomo Corp’s trading arm Petro Summit took the term Su

Tu Den at a premium of $3.9/bbl to Dated Brent.

--NYMEX WTI/ICE BRENT, Apr 3

NYMEX crude futures rebounded on Thursday while North Sea Brent futures on the ICE also

turned sharply higher. The May WTI contract was up 67cts/bbl at $100.29/bbl. The May

Brent contract was up $1.36/bbl at $106.15/bbl.

The May WTI contract bounced back for the first time in four business day to end at above

$100/bbl. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar advanced against the euro after

the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi

Indicated that the bank is willing to hold quantitative easing policy. The crude futures

market started at a weaker tone as the dollar’s advance reduced the appeal of dollar-based

crude futures. But the Libyan government later said it would difficult to reopen the

crude exports ports that had been blocked by anti-government groups. The remarks raised

renewed supply fears from Libya, helping lift Brent crude futures sharply. WTI also rose

tracking Brent movements. The remarks came just after the Libyan government was close

to reach an agreement with militant-groups to resume exports the previous day. On NYMEX,

the May heating oil contract was up 3.96cts/gallon at 290.62cts/gallon while the May

RBOB contract was up 4.50cts/gallon at 291.18cts/gallon.

As for the market outlook of the front-month WTI contract on Friday, “the market is likely

to trade within the ranges of $100-100.50/bbl,” said a commodity analyst at a leading

commodity broker. Market players also were waiting for economic indicators such as US

jobs data.

Market News

--Saudi Arabia raises May AL term price for Asia by 30cts/bbl on month

Saudi Arabia’s state-run Saudi Aramco has set the formula of its official selling price

(OSP) for May-loading Arab Light (AL) crude to Asian term buyers at a premium of $1.85/bbl

to the average of May-loading Oman Dubai average, up 30cts/bbl from the previous month.

The increase came after the backwardation of the benchmark Dubai papers widened slightly

in March.

The gap between light and heavy grades was largely steady. The price for the country’s

light grade Arab Super Light (ASL) and Arab Extra Light (AEL) were raised by 20-40cts/bbl

from the previous month, while the prices for medium grade Arab Heavy (AH) and heavy

grade Arab Heavy (AH) were raised by 30cts/bbl from the previous month. The differential

between AEL and AH widened 10cts/bbl to $6.80/bbl in line with AEL.

ASL AEL AL AM AH

14/May +6.15(+0.20) +3.90(+0.40) +1.85(+0.30) -0.15(+0.30) -2.90(+0.30)

14/Apr +5.95(-0.60) +3.50(-0.20) +1.55(-0.20) -0.45(-0.25) -3.20(-0.50)

14/Mar +6.55(-1.40) +3.70(-1.05) +1.75(-0.70) -0.20(-0.30) -2.70( --- )

14/Feb +7.95(-1.25) +4.75(-1.30) +2.45(-1.30) +0.10(-1.00) -2.70(-0.90)

14/Jan +9.20(+1.30) +6.05(+0.75) +3.75(+0.30) +1.10(-0.40) -1.80(-0.75)

13/Dec +7.90(+1.00) +5.30(+0.45) +3.45(+0.25) +1.50(+0.20) -1.05( --- )

10


--ADNOC reduces Mar Murban OSP by $1.65/bbl on month

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, or ADNOC, on Thursday set the March-loading official selling

price for Murban at $108.30/bbl, down $1.65/bbl from the previous month. The decline

came after Dubai crude prices in March softened by $0.72/bbl from the previous month.

ADNOC also trimmed March-loading OSPs for Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif from the previous

day. In addition, ADNOC released the OSP for Das crude, a grade to blend Lower Zakum

and Umm Shaif, for the first time.

Meanwhile, the spread between March Murban OSP and the March Dubai crude price of

$104.316/bbl shrank 93cts/bbl from the previous month to $3.98/bbl in favor of Murban,

down 93cts/bbl from the previous month. The scale of the cut exceeded market forecasts.

In the May spot trade which ADNOC refers to set March OSP, most of deals were done at

discounts of 50-60cts/bbl to OSP as demand weakened due to refinery maintenances in

Northeast Asia. ADNOC apparently reduced the OSP gap with AEL sharply, judging that

demand was unlikely to recover unless the gap was corrected.

Murban L.Zakum U.Shaif Das U.Zakum Murban vs

Dubai

14/Mar 108.30 (-1.65) 108.00 (-1.65) 107.25 (-1.70) 107.25 105.20 (-1.50) +3.98

14/Feb 109.95 (+0.20) 109.65 (+0.10) 108.95 ( --- ) 106.70 (+0.60) +4.91

14/Jan 109.75 (-4.10) 109.55 (-4.15) 108.95 (-4.20) 106.10 (-4.10) +5.73

13/Dec 113.85 (+1.65) 113.70 (+1.65) 113.15 (+1.65) 110.20 (+1.20) +5.99

13/Nov 112.20 (-0.25) 112.05 (-0.15) 111.50 (-0.20) 109.00 (-0.05) +6.25

11


13/Oct 112.45 (-2.05) 112.20 (-2.10) 111.70 (-2.10) 109.05 (-1.85) +5.81

--China early April crude throughput down 1.5% from late March

Combined crude oil throughput at the 35 refiners run by state-owned companies Sinopec

Corp, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) and Petrochina in early April was at

5.80-mil b/d, down 1.5% from late March according to a survey conducted by Rim. The

average utilization rate was at 76.1%, down 1.2% from late March. The total refining

capacity of the three companies is 7.63-mil b/d. On Mar 23, the 160,000b/d Changling

refinery within the Sinopec group of refiners was shut down for maintenance and was

expected to remain shut down until early May. On Mar 20, a 160,000b/d crude distillation

unit at the 320,000b/d Yanshan refinery, also a part of Sinopec was shut down for a

one-month-maintenance. In addition, the 410,000b/d Dalian refinery within the

Petrochina group would be shut-down for a two-month-maintenance from Apr 8.

Refinery Location Capacity (b/d) Run Rate (%)

early-Apr-14 late-Mar-14

SINOPEC

Zhenhai Ningbo, Zhejiang 460,000 90.0 90.0

Shanghai Shanghai 280,000 78.0 78.0

Jinling Nanjing, Jiangsu 360,000 85.0 85.0

Gaoqiao Shanghai 226,000 88.0 88.0

Yangzi Nanjing, Jiangsu 180,000 94.0 94.0

Fujian Quanzhou, Fujian 240,000 51.0 51.0

Wuhan Wuhan, Hebei 170,000 62.0 62.0

Jiujiang Jiujiang, Jiangxi 130,000 80.0 80.0

Changling Yueyang, Hunan 160,000 0.0 11.0

Yanshan Beijing 320,000 34.0 46.0

Qingdao Qingdao, Shandong 200,000 102.0 102.0

Luoyang Luoyang, Henan 200,000 64.0 64.0

Tianjin Tianjin 310,000 78.0 78.0

Jinan Jinan, Shandong 100,000 71.0 71.0

Shijiazhuang Shijiazhuang, Hebei 100,000 66.0 66.0

Qilu Zibo, Shandong 280,000 78.0 76.0

Qingdao Petchem Qingdao, Shandong 100,000 77.0 77.0

Guangzhou Guangzhou, Guangdon 270,000 90.0 90.0

Maoming Maoming, Guangdong 470,000 82.0 82.0

Hainan Hainan 160,000 96.0 96.0

Dongxing Zhanjiang, Guangdon 100,000 97.0 97.0

CNOOC

Huizhou Huizhou, Guangdong 240,000 98.0 98.0

PETROCHINA

GuangXi Petchem GuangXi, QinZhou 200,000 94.0 94.0

Dalian Dalian, Liaoning 410,000 59.0 69.0

Fushun Fushun, Liaoning 230,000 76.0 76.0

Dailan Wepec Dalian, Liaoning 200,000 73.0 73.0

Jinzhou Jinzhou, Liaoning 150,000 82.0 82.0

Jinxi Huludao, Liaoning 140,000 83.0 83.0

JiLin Petchem JiLin 200,000 88.0 88.0

12


Daqing Petchem Daqing, Heilongjian 140,000 63.0 63.0

Daqing Daqing, Heilongjian 140,000 68.0 68.0

Lanzhou Lanzhou, Gansu 220,000 103.0 103.0

Dagang Tianjin 110,000 80.0 80.0

Dushanzi Xinjiang 320,000 57.0 57.0

Urumqi Xinjiang 110,000 80.0 80.0

Total 7,626,000 76.1 77.3

--Taiwan crude oil throughput down 19.3% on week

Combined crude oil throughput in Taiwan was at 730,000b/d, down 19.3% from a week before,

according to a survey conducted by Rim on Thursday. The figure equates to a utilization

of 57.9% of total refining capacity of 1.26-mil b/d. Formosa Petrochemical Co (FPCC)

cut crude throughput to 360,000b/d as run-rates at the No.2 180,000b/d crude distillation

unit (CDU) started to drop ahead of planned maintenance scheduled to start next week.

Meanwhile, CPC kept crude throughput at 370,000b/d. At the 200,000b/d Taoyuan refinery,

a 100,000b/d CDU was shutdown.

Date CPC FPCC Ave

Capa (1,000b/d) 720 540

(％)

04/03/14 51.4 66.7 57.9

03/27/14 51.4 99.1 71.8

03/20/14 56.9 85.2 69.0

03/13/14 56.9 85.2 69.0

Tokyo office -- Tel: (81) 3-3552-2411 Fax:(81)3-3552-2415 e-mail: [email protected]

Singapore office -- Tel (65)-6345-9894 Fax (65)-6345-9894 e-mail

Chinese office -– Tel: (86)-10-8527-1630 Fax:(86)-10-6428-1725 e-mail: [email protected]

Indian office – Tel: (91)-98795-50717 E-MAIL: [email protected]

Shanghai office – Tel: (86)-21-5111-3575: e-mail: [email protected]

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