risikofilosofering 021214
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
RisikoFilosoferingHuman Factors mastermind-seminar2. desember 2014
![Page 2: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
If you think that your only tool is a
hammer; every problem starts
looking like a nail.
![Page 3: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Dette kan vi!
![Page 4: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Lav sannsynlighet Middels sannsynlighet Høy sannsynlighetKonsekvens 10-4 - 10-5 10-3 - 10-4 10-2 - 10-3 10-1 - 10-2 > 10-1
Meget stor
Stor
Middels
Lav
Meget lav
![Page 5: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Now the stakes are
even higher!!
![Page 6: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Risiko = Risiko?
Objektiv risiko
Risiko-persepsjon
Risiko???
Risiko- toleranse
Realisertrisiko
![Page 7: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Persepsjon!
Tillit
Erfaring
KunnskapEtikk
Skrekk FrivillighetKontroll
«Bias»Følelser
……..
Holdning
…….
«System I vs. II»
![Page 10: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
R = K * S≠ eksakt
vitenskap
>> Beslutningsunderlag!
![Page 11: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
10E-4
10E-6
Neglisjerbart
ALARP området
Uakseptabel
Risikonivå
![Page 12: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Akseptabel eller ikke?
![Page 13: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Risiko?
Kunnskapom muligheter
Kunnskapom
sannsynlighet
Frank KnightAndrew Stirling
Problem Bra
BraRisiko!!
Uvitenhet
Tvetydighet
Usikkerhet
![Page 14: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
10E-4
10E-6
Neglisjerbart
ALARP området
Uakseptabel
Broadly
Acceptab
le
Broadly
UNAccep
table
![Page 15: RisikoFilosofering 021214](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070517/58d13daf1a28ab455d8b52f1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Takk for oppmerksomhet!
Spørsmål? Diskusjon!
www.mindtherisk.com