Risk Awareness and Perceptions after Typhoon Morakot: Community-based Survey on Residents’

Response and Preparedness for Future Climate Chang in Tainan City

Dr. Ya-Pin Lyu

Project Assistant Researcher

APEC Research Center for Typhoon and SocietyTaiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Center

National Applied Research Laboratory

Outline Introduction Community-Based Survey Research

Tainan as the Research Target City Survey Structure Sampling Areas Survey Results Factors Motivating Household Mitigation Actions Logistic Regression of Household Mitigation Actions Could Community Supports Motivate Household Actions? What do We Learn?

The Promotion of Weather Forecast in Household Decisions Benefits Revelation for Advanced Weather Forecast Technology

Concluding Remarks Future Works

Introduction

Background• The history record has shown that Taiwan

is a disaster-prone island hit mainly by typhoons and floods. – According to government statistics, an average

of 4.9 typhoons hit Taiwan every year during the period 1958~2007, 3.5 of which caused damages.

– Even though there is a slightly increasing trend of typhoon frequency, we are not sure about the whether we will experience more typhoon in the future.

1972-1976

1977-1981

1982-1986

1987-1991

1992-1996

1997-2001

2002-2006

2007-2011

0

1

2

3

4

5-Year Average

Table 2: Natural Disaster Losses and Insurance Reimbursement

Year Natural Disaster

Economic Losses (USD

million)

Insurance Reimbursement

(USD million)

ReimbursementRate+

( %)

1999 Chi Chi Earthquake 11,894 486 4.03%

2001 Tropical Storm Toraji 256 17 6.51%

2004 Typhoon Mindulle 447 10 2.23%

2009 Typhoon Morakot 6,661 76 1.24%

Data Sources: Chi-Chi Earthquake Post-Disaster Reconstruction Committee, Typhoon Morakot Post Disaster Reconstruction Committee, the Non-Life Insurance Association of the R.O.C., Munich Reinsurance Company, and Willis Re

Background

Damage Losses During Typhoon MorakotLosses Items Dollar Amount

( billion NTD)1. Monetary Losses 199.83(1) Direct Losses 189.68

a. Household Damage 5.31b. Household Construction and Equipment Damage Losses

4.34

c. Industrial Direct Losses

27.35

① Agriculture 19.40② Industrial 2.33③ Business 1.18④ Traveling 2.18⑤ Aborigine 2.26

d. Public Infrastructure 152.68(2) Indirect Losses 10.15

① Agriculture 8.16② Industrial 0.59③ Business 1.40

2. Nonmonetary Losses: Death and Missing Toll

699

Damage Losses in Typhoon Morakot( billion NTD)

Household Damage Household Construction and Equipment Damage Losses

Industrial Direct Losses Public Infrastructure Indirect Losses

The Total Damage Losses are around 6.6 billion USD

A Long Way Toward Recovery and Reconstruction for households and local Industries

Could we reduce damage losses and speed up recovery via encouragement of household preparation works? And how?

Bottom up or Top down:Could we encourage actions at community scale ?

Research Objectives According to United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), preparedness works

before catastrophes determine recovery speed of a society thereafter.

Buttom-up or top-down risk management? The responsibility of top-down and bottom-up risk management strategies should be

clarified. They should be coordinated with each other. Top-down risk management might suffer a lack of local viewpoints and thereby

emergency responses could not be as instant as we expected. Local strategies should be initiated via bottom-up approach by integrating stakeholders’

viewpoints in decision process.

This research tries to start with a community-based survey and based on which we could figure out several cures for the increasing trend of future damage losses compounded by climate change.

The inventory survey on capacity and mitigation/adaptive needs Do high risk perceptions encourage residents’ autonomous mitigation actions? Are they sufficient in capacity to prepare for future hazards? What residents need in preparedness work?

Community-Based Survey Research

Tainan as the Research Target City

• For recent decade since 1996, Tainan city ranks top 6 counties in terms of disaster losses for 7 times across top 10 typhoon events.

• Tainan is one flood-prone city in which each year residents experienced numbers of small- and large-scaled floods for their low terrain near river basins and coastal areas.

History: Top 5 Counties Suffering Severest Damage During Typhoon Morakot

Typhoon Morakot

County Household Damage(NTD)

Damage/Monthly Income

Savings per Household

Nantou County 473,779 (5) 1.87 158,227

Chiayi County 836,424 (2) 2.99 107,954

Kaohsiung County 652,632 (3) 2.70 213,404

Pingtung County 359,403 (6) 1.61 180,197

Taitung County 956,333 (1) 4.05 183,777

Tainan City 145,370 1.33146,406

Tainan County 396,396 3.05 (2) (4)

Future: Worldwide Top Risky Cities in Storm Hazards

According to Swiss Re’s risk assessment (2013), Tainan ranks top 10 risky cities among 616 worldwide urban

areas in storm hazards .

Residents’ lives, health, properties, and physical

assets are exposed to gradually higher risks under climate change

Survey Structure: Risk Perception, Household Mitigation/Adaptive Needs and Actions

under Climate Change

Part 1. Demographic Characteristic of Sample

Part 2. Past Natural Disaster Experience

Part 3. Risk Perceptions

Part 4. Mitigation and Adaptive Actions

Part 5. Capacity Survey

Sampling Districts in

Tainan

Survey Result: Typhoon Hazards in History

16%

36%21%

10%

10%1%

3% 1% 3%

Inundation Depth

<0.5m0.5m-1.0m1.0m-1.5m1.5m-2.0m2.0m-2.5m2.5m-3.0m3.0m-3.5m

37%

32%

22%

2% 1%3% 3%

Inundation Duration

1 Day 2 Days

3 Days 4 Days

5 Days 6 Days

7 Days Missing

Survey Result: Social Impacts

Life T

hreat

Contagious D

isease

s Threa

t

Household Constr

ucture

and Eq

uipment D

amag

e Losse

s

Agricu

ltural

Damag

e Losse

s

Business

Running Losse

s

Psychologic

al Dist

ress

No Influen

ce

Inconve

neient L

ife0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

28.83%

40.99%

85.59%

22.52%16.22%

56.76%

1.35% 0.45%

Survey Result: Household Mitigation Actions Before Typhoon Hits

1%8%

51%

39%

2%

Effectiveness of Household Mitiga-tion Actions

pretty bad bad

neutral good

very good

Earth

bag pilin

g

Install w

ater r

etaining p

late

Move pro

perties

to higher

place

Clear d

rainag

e

Add height fo

r furn

iture

Tape t

he window

Install w

aterti

ght g

ate

Close window

Install I

nundation in

specti

on senso

r

Food prep

aration

Others0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%

22.1%

8.3%

31.7%

9.0%

20.7%

0.7%5.5%

15.2%

0.7% 0.7%5.5%

Actions to Mitigate Losses

Survey Result: The Priority of Policies to cope with Household Mitigation Actions

Pretty L

ow Priorit

y

Low Prio

rity

Neutra

l

High Prio

rity

Extre

mly High

Priorit

y

Missing

0.30% 8.20%23.80%

52.70%

12.60%2.40%

Information Platform (4)

0.30% 8.20%23.50%

44.90%

20.40%2.70%

Urban Spacial Planning

0.30% 1.70% 9.20%

43.50% 43.90%

1.40%

Resources support for Emergency Responses (2)

0.00% 2.40%14.60%

49.30%31.00%

2.70%

Household Loans in Construction to Mitigate Damage Losses (3)

Pretty L

ow Priorit

y

Low Prio

rity

Neutra

l

High Prio

rity

Extre

mly High

Priorit

y

Missing

1.00%

15.30%

33.30% 35.70%

12.20%2.40%

Flood Insurance

Pretty L

ow Priorit

y

Low Prio

rity

Neutra

l

High Prio

rity

Extre

mly High

Priorit

y

Missing

0.00% 2.00% 4.80%

47.60% 43.90%

1.70%

Contagious Disease Control and Hygiene Condition Promotion (1)

Capacity Build-up and Community Support

Community Dev

elopmen

t Cen

ter

Real-T

ime D

amag

e Rep

orting S

ystem

Disaste

r Prev

ention Knowled

ge Diss

eminati

on

Materia

ls Prep

ared fo

r Disa

ster P

reven

tion and M

itigation

Disaste

r Emerg

ency

Responses

Post-Disa

ster R

elief

and Su

pport

Support

for Reco

very

others

76.90%

44.20%

13.30%4.10% 6.80% 6.80% 3.10%

9.20%

Community Support

The Possible Factors Motivating Household Mitigation Actions

Personal Characteristics Education, Personal Income, Household Income Risk Perception, Past Disaster Experience, Concerns, Responsibility

Hazards of Living Environment Terrain, Household Distance to River, Costal Line

Outer Resources and Supports Scientific Knowledge and Risk Communication Disaster warning Issuance (e.g. Heavy Rain and Flood Warning) Community Support Financial Support Policy Strategies

Logistic Regression-CoefficientsTook Mitigation Actions

or NotUse Early Flood Warning APP

Constant 0.00(0.00)

0.00(0.00)

Education (in log) 0.39*(0.21)

1.07(0.80)

Personal Income (in log) 2.32(2.57)

1.80(3.31)

Household Income (in log) 2.34**(1.03)

3.11*(2.50)

Past Disaster Experience 0.99(0.01)

1.68***(0.31)

Risk_Perception_Probability_River Area 0.99(0.85)

--

Risk_Perception_Probability_Costal Area 1.05(0.51)

4.78***(2.82)

Responsibility_Shared_Agree 3.59***(1.36)

0.92(0.52)

Responsibility_Share_Low 0.16*(0.20)

2.29(2.94)

Responsibility_Shared_Middle 0.31(0.39)

0.49(0.63)

Risk_Perception_Property 2.47*(1.26)

1.23(0.93)

Risk_Perception_Agriculture_Losses 1.39(0.53)

0.24** (0.15)

Risk_Perception_Psychological_Distress 0.62(0.27)

1.43(0.96)

Observation 206 177

Logistic Regression -Marginal EffectsTook Mitigation Actions

or NotUse Early Flood Warning

APPEducation (in log) -0.22*

(0.12)0.00

(0.07)Personal Income (in log) 0.19

(0.26)0.05

(0.18)Household Income (in log) 0.20**

(0.10)0.11*(0.07)

Past Disaster Experience -0.00(0.00)

0.05***(0.02)

Risk_Perception_Probability_River Area

-0.00(0.20)

--

Risk_Perception_Probability_Costal Area

0.01(0.11)

0.23**(0.12)

Responsibility_Shared_Agree 0.30***(0.08)

-0.00(0.05)

Responsibility_Share_Low -0.39*(0.23)

0.08(0.14)

Responsibility_Shared_Middle -0.27(0.28)

-0.07(0.14)

Risk_Perception_Property 0.22*(0.12)

0.02(0.08)

Risk_Perception_Agriculture_Losses 0.08(0.09)

-0.12*** (0.04)

Risk_Perception_Psychological_Distress -0.10(0.09)

0.04(0.07)

Observation 206 177

Market Failure Problem

More active mitigation actions are found for those who have higher household income, who agree more to take responsibility of preparedness work, and who perceive higher risk in properties under climate change.

Residents who feel psychological distress don’t guarantee their actions to prevent or mitigate damage losses. What’s wrong?

The importance of Financial and Knowledge Capacity Build-up: Could we reinforce our capacity in terms of social resilience via better

utilization of community resources and via promotion of communities activities?

Low income residents who live in flood hotspot areas might suffer from deficient capacity such that autonomous mitigation

actions and preparedness works are inactive

Could Community Support Motivate Household Actions?

Took Mitigation Actions or NotCoefficient Marginal Effect

Education (in log) 0.32**(0.19)

-0.26(0.13)

Personal Income (in log) 3.30(3.64)

0.27(0.25)

Household Income (in log) 2.68**(1.33)

0.23**(0.11)

Past Disaster Experience 1.08(0.10)

0.01(0.02)

Responsibility_Shared_Agree 4.02***(1.67)

0.33***(0.09)

Risk_Perception_Property 1.71(0.95)

0.13(0.13)

Risk_Perception_Agriculture_Losses 0.92(0.39)

-0.01(0.10)

Community_Resources (1)Community_Development_Center

5.26***(2.67)

0.39***(0.10)

Community_Resources (2)Instant_Disaster_Notification_and_Reporting

1.31(0.49)

0.06(0.08)

Community _Resources (3)Scientific _Risk_Knowledge_Dissemination

1.55(0.93)

0.09(0.12)

Community_Resources (4)Emergency Responses and Rescue Support

13.12**(18.80)

0.35***(0.08)

Community_Resources (5) for_Preparedness_Work

6.25(8.64)

0.29**(0.12)

Observation 201 201

What Do We Learn? Community resources provided to support preparedness works could

motivate residents’ mitigation actions such as setup of community development centers, resources prepared for emergency response and rescue actions.

The functioning of dissemination of scientific knowledge, risk information, and disaster dynamics is under development so far at community scale in terms of application in catastrophe preparedness works.

The consideration of cost spent to mitigate damage losses is one important determinant in household decision whether they will take actions or not.

Strategies to against future hazards or cope with climate change at community scale should be formed to meet local needs in the future via reinforcement of risk communication, and risk education to facilitate scientific knowledge dissemination through community activities.

The Promotion of Weather Forecasts Utilized in Decisions related with Preparedness Works

According to IRI (2012), risk management should fully utilize weather and climate forecasts in disaster prevention and mitigation works. More accurate weather forecasts could

encourage prevention/mitigation activities, and thereby effectively reduce damage scale and speed up recovery works.

Several ways to promote advanced weather forecast in government agencies’ and households’ decisions, including Provide weather forecast knowledge and

more accurate forecast services Promote development of advanced weather

forecast techniques Reveal benefits of advanced weather

forecast to the public

Motivate Actions

Avoid Unnecessary

Damage Losses

More Efficient

Allocation for Resources

Advanced Typhoon Forecast

Techniques

Lower Damage Losses

Benefits Revelation for Advanced Weather Forecast Technology

According to our estimation, reduced forecast errors in typhoon track by 1 km would reduced damage by 0.14 billion NTD (4.6 million USD) in agriculture, 0.10 billion NTD (3.3 million USD) in household, 0.62 billion NTD (20.6 million USD) in industrial and

business sectors, The total direct benefits are around 0.86 billion NTD per kilometer (28.6 million USD/km)

Such revelation could help promote development of advanced weather forecast and further application in all aspects of decisions.

The Benefit of Advanced Weather Forecast

Techniques

Agriculture

Industrial/BusinessHousehold

Future WorksThe Core Works of ACTS Core Research:

to reinforce research capacity in typhoon studies

promote the application and utilization of advanced weather forecast technique via benefit assessment

Promotion and Application: to collaborate with NCDR and NCREE in build-up of evaluation indicators

Information Exchange: to hold international conferences and workshops to reinforce communication, knowledge exchange, and experience sharing

International Cooperation:to collaborate with native and international research institutes to work on social economic assessment of typhoon events

Thanks