risk based decision making - unece
TRANSCRIPT
RISK BASED DECISION MAKING
COVID 19 SURVEY
WP.6 GRM
Alpaslan MENEVŞE
Recommendations P
Crisis Management within a Regulatory Framework - UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
• Promoting a culture of responsible management of risks and increased preparedness for crises, including more effective coordination among all parties that can be involved in crises.
• https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trade/wp6/Recommendations/Recommendation_P_en.pdf
Uncertainties
• Known knowns : Risk level known and effects are measurable
• Known unknowns : Risk known, but not so measurable effects. Preparedness most useful here
• Unknown knowns* : Black Swans – Exists but hidden - predictable
• Unknown unknowns* : Potential - Not occured nor have any experience – Absolute uncertainty* Recommendation P Noting that some risks are almost impossible to identify, and that all risks, even if identified, cannot be totally mitigated,
Risks
• Operational – Process Level
• Tactical – Project Level
• Strategic – Objective Level
Keywords
#Ownership (Individual)
#Preparedness (Collective Mind)
Why Need
Survey?
To make Informed decisions about:
Occurance of once in a Life Time events in Increasing Frequency
Coping with World Wide Diasasters
Sustainable Social Life
Sustainable Economy
Target Audience
REGULATORY BODIES
LAW MAKERS
SECTORAL REGULATORS
CIVILPROFFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS
Objective
Wider Scope for Business Life
Enabling measurements for future expectation models
Awareness for preparedness
May shed light to Unpredicted outcomes of Pandemics
Need for World Wide Cooperation
Future potential disasters Earth Quakes, Cyber Security etc.
Reporting application differences
To connect Past-Present-Future for informed risk based decision making
Design of Survey
How well are we prepared?
How we cope with the crisis?
How to shape better future
with regulations?
Past Present Future
Scope of the Survey
• General Information - 7Q (Sector, roles etc.)
• Planning and Recources – 15Q (Preparedness before the crisis)
• Operation Of The Crisis Unit – 11Q (Actions, Timing and Availability)
• People - 5Q ( expertise, effectiveness)
• Infrastructure - 10Q (Buildings, tools and equipment)
• COVID 19 Affects - 10Q (Social, economic, supply chain etc.)
• Total 58 Questions –Approx. 15 mins
Sample Questions
PLANNING and RESOURCES
• What is the degree to which your current policies address crisis-related risks and problems? (Past)
• How do you rate effectiveness of your current crisis management plans? (Present)
• Is there a need to revise the roles and responsibilities in the crisis management unit?(Future)
Thank You... WP.6 GRM