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Proceedings of the International Topical Meeting on PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT PSA '99 RISK-INFORMED, AND PERFORMANCE-BASED REGULATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM VOLUME 1 August 22-26, 1999 Washington, DC Sponsored by • ANS Washington, D.C. Section • ANS Nuclear Installations Safety Division Cosponsored by • U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission • National Aeronautics and Space Administration • Korean Nuclear Regulatory Commission • Japan Atomic Energy Commission In cooperation with • International Atomic Energy Agency Published by the American Nuclear Society, Inc. La Grange Park, Illinois 60526 USA UB/TIB Hannover 89 120 909 91X o o

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Page 1: RISK-INFORMED, AND PERFORMANCE-BASED REGULATION IN … · 2008-02-15 · RISK-INFORMED, AND PERFORMANCE-BASED REGULATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM VOLUME 1 August 22-26, 1999 Washington,

Proceedingsof the

International Topical Meetingon

PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENTPSA '99

RISK-INFORMED, AND PERFORMANCE-BASEDREGULATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM

VOLUME 1

August 22-26, 1999Washington, DC

Sponsored by• ANS Washington, D.C. Section• ANS Nuclear Installations Safety Division

Cosponsored by• U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission• National Aeronautics and Space Administration• Korean Nuclear Regulatory Commission• Japan Atomic Energy Commission

In cooperation with• International Atomic Energy Agency

Published by theAmerican Nuclear Society, Inc.

La Grange Park, Illinois 60526 USA

UB/TIB Hannover 89120 909 91X oo

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Foreword xvii

Volume 1

FAILURE DATA COMPILATIONAND ANALYSIS

Monday, August 23, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chairs: Marty Sattison (INEEL)J. L Roca (NBNR-Argentina)

Level 1 PSA for Japanese Light Water Reactors withDomestic Component Failure Rate Data / Masajiro Sug-awara, Hiromichi Takahashi, Mitsumasa Hirano (NUPEC-Japan) 3

Progress Toward a Component Failure Rate Data Bank forMagnetic Fusion Safety /LC. Cadwallader (LMIT/INEEL),T. Pinna (ENEA-Italy) 11

SOVIET DESIGNED REACTOR SAFETY

Monday, August 23, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: M. Stamatelatos (SCIENTECH)

Insights from Level 1 PSA for Novovoronezh NPP (Unit 5)and PSA-Based Modifications / Artour Lioubarski, IrinaKouzmina, Boris Gordon (SECN & RSNRA-Russia),Vladimir Rozin (Novovoronezh NPP-Russia) 21

Organization and Management of the Plant Safety Evalua-tion of the VVER-440/230 Units at Novovoronezh /Vladimir Rozin (Novovoronezh NPP-Russia), William J.Puglia, Cyrus M.Afshar (Data Systems and Solutions), PhilipPizzica (ANL) 29

The Role of PRA in the Safety Assessment of VVER Nu-clear Power Plants in Ukraine / C. A. Kot, C. E. Dickerman,J. L Binder (ANL) 38

Application of European Utility Requirements (EUR) forthe Development of the PSA for the European PassivePlant / Alvio Bassanelli (ENEL-SGN-haly), Terry Schulz(Westinghouse) 45

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PRINCIPLES AND THEORY OF PSA

Monday, August 23, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chairs: L. Carlsson (SKISweden)M. Higuchi (JAPC-Japan)

A Guided Tour of Minimal Cutsets Handling By Meansof Binary Decision Diagrams / Y. Dutuit (IUT-A-France),A. Rauzy (LaBRl-Franee) 55

The Stand-By Failure Analysis in Bayesian Experiment /Hung-Ju Wang, Giun Fang (AEC-Taiwan), Chen-Fu Chien(Natl Tsing-Hua Univ-Taiwan) 63

Using Fuzzy Arithemetic in Containment Event Trees /Selva S. Rivera, Jorge H. Bardn (CEDIAC-Argentina) ... 70

EXTERNAL EVENT ANALYSIS

Monday, August 23,199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: A. Afzali (PG&E)

Insights from the Seismic PSA of the BWR Model Plant atJAERI / Tetsukuni Oikawa, Masaaki Kondo, Yuichi Wata-nabe, Iwao Shiraishi, Jim Hirose, Ken Muramatsu (JAERI-Japan) 77

Internal Flooding Analyses Results of Slovak NPPS /Vladimir Sopira (RELKO-Slovak Republic) 85

LESSONS LEARNED FROM RECENTRISK-INFORMED APPLICATIONS-PANEL

Monday, August 23, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: Gary M. Holahan (NRC)

Panel 93

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SYSTEM RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

Monday, August 23, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: K. Fleming (ERIN Eng)

Black Start-Based Recovery of Offsite Power to SONGS /P. Moieni, D. Henneke, S. Shepherd, P. Save (SCE, San On-ofre), M. Mansell, D. Reny (SCIENTECH), J. Stetkar, S. Rao(Pickard, Lowe & Garrick) 97

Linked Fault Tree Methodology as Applied to ComEdPSA's / Milad Kalache (ComEd, Downers Grove) 105

Loss of Offsite Power Recovery Factors and Diesel Gener-ator Mission Times: A Suggested Approach / Kenneth Cana-van (GPU Nuclear, NJ) 108

Application of Piping Reliability Models and Service Datato Evaluate Large Service Water System Pipe Break Fre-quencies I Mark A. Melnicoff (ComEd, Downers Grove), Da-vid A. Bidwell, Karl N. Fleming (ERIN Eng, Carlsbad) ... 115

PSA APPLICATIONS IN MAINTENANCE

Monday, August 23, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: H. Dezfuli (SCIENTECH)

Development of Maintenance Software for PRA Models /Tsu-Jen Lin, Hung-Ju Wang, Chao-Ming Peng (INER-Taiwan), Gwo-Ding Li (TPC-Taiwan) 125

On-Line Operation Support Modeling: Common Cause De-pendency / Zdenko Simic, Vladimir MikuliCic (FEEC-Croatia) 128

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS: PRINCIPLES

Monday, August 23, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: V. Bier (Univ of Wisconsin)

The Distinction Between Aleatory and Epistemic Uncer-tainties is Important: An Example from the Inclusion ofAging Effects into PSA / George Apostolakis (MIT) 135

Severe Accident Phenomenological Uncertainty: Risk andAccident Management Impacts I Jon Birchley, Bernd Jacket(Scherrer Inst-Switzerland) 143

Modeling and Measuring the Effects of Imprecision in SevereAccident Management / Donghan Yu (KAERI-Korea) 151

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FIRE SAFETY ANALYSIS IN PSA-I

Monday, August 23, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chairs: S. Nowlen (SNL)F. Mowrer (Univ of Maryland)

Applying a Fire IPEEE: Hot Shorts and Appendix R Verifi-cation / Raymond H. V. Gallucci, Mark D. Flaherty, DavidF. Wilson (RG&E, Ginna), Eric J. Jorgenson (EQE Int) .. 161

Description of a Fire Hazard Screening Methodology / Fran-cisco Joglar-Billoch, Frederick W. Mowrer, MohammadModarres (Univ of Maryland) 169

Quad Cities Fire Risk Assessment / William E. Burchill(ComEd, Downers Grove), Kiang Zee (ERIN Eng) 175

Risk Insights Gained From Fire Incidents / Steven P. Nowlen(SNL), Mardy Kazarians (Kazarians & Assoc) 183

RISK-INFORMED PRIORITIZATION

Monday, August 23,19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chairs: K. Bych (PG&E)L. Pong (Washington Pub Pwr Supply)

Test Interval Analysis for the Isolation Valves at OlkiluotoNuclear Power Plant / Mika Yli-Kauhaluoma, Risto Hi-manen (Teollisuuden Voima-Finland) 191

Insights into the Risk Characteristics Derived From the Ap-plication of a Computerized On-Line Configuration Man-a g e r / Lichung T. Pong (Washington Pub Pwr Supply) ... 1 9 5

Simplified Risk Model Version II (SRM-II) Structure andA p p l i c a t i o n / S t e v e n Eide, Thomas Wierman (INEEL) .... 2 0 2

RELIABILITY AND QUALITY ASSURANCE

Monday, August 23, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: R. Niall Hunt (SCIENTECH, Kent)

A Quality Assurance Handbook for Probabilistic SafetyAssessment / Jan Holmberg (SwedPower-Sweden) 213

Assessment of PRA Quality / G. A. Krueger (PECO En-ergy, Wayne), E. T. Burns (ERIN Eng, Campbell), R. A. Hill(GE, San Jose) 217

Insights from the Development of a Reliability AssuranceProgramme (RAP) Guidebook for Advanced Light WaterReactors / B. O. Cho (IAEA-Austria), R. Niall M. Hunt (SCI-ENTECH, Kent) 225

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PSA IN AERONAUTICS AND SPACE

Monday, August 23, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: P. Rutledge (NASA)

A Probabilistic Approach of Incorporating Safety and Reli-ability in System Designs for a Manned Mission to Mars /Jan W. Railsback (NASA), George P. Simion (SAIC) 235

Space Shuttle Multiple-Phase Integrated Probabilistic RiskAssessment / Karon S. Woods (NASA) 241

Safety Factor of a Helicopter Exposed to Ground Fire withFailure Probability Estimation / Tadeusz Niezgoda (MUT-Poland), Jerzy Jaiwinski, Jdzef turek (Air Force last ofTech-Poland), Maciej Woropay (Tech and AgriculturalAcademy-Poland) 249

The Integration of Probabilistic Tools into the AeronauticsRisk Management Program at the NASA Glenn ResearchCenter / Jeffrey John Rusick, Shantaram S. Pai, Vincent R.Lalli (NASA), Michael H. Packard (SAIC) 254

Estimation of Risk Trends in Shuttle Failure Data / RichardP. Heydorn, Jan W. Railsback, Tim C. Adams (NASA) .... 2 6 2

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Monday, August 23, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: J. Vaurio (Loviisa NPP-Finland)

Simple Measure of Uncertainty Importance Using EntireChange of Cumulative Distribution Functions / Moon-HyunChun, Seok-Jung Han, Nam-Il Tak (KAIST-Korea) 271

Different Sources of Uncertainty in Level 2 PSA: Their Char-acterization and Propagation / Kwang-IlAhn, Dong-Ha Kim(KAERI-Korea) 279

Sensitivity Analysis for Embedded Computer-Based Sys-tems / Leila Meshkat, Joanne Bechta Dugan (Univ of Vir-ginia), John D. Andrews (Loughborough Univ-UnitedKingdom) 287

COMMON CAUSE FAILURE ANALYSIS

Monday, August 23, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: A. Mosleh (Univ of Maryland)

Insights About Emergency Diesel Generator Failures fromthe USNRC's Common Cause Failure Database / Frances M.Marshall, Thomas E. Wierman (INEEL), Dale M. Rasmu-son (NRC, Rockville), AH Mosleh (Univ of Maryland) .... 297

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Insights from the Application of INEL's Common CauseDatabase at Commonwealth Edison's Byron and Braid-wood / David A. Bidwell (ERIN Eng, Carlsbad), Young H.In (ComEd, Downers Grove) 305

Common-Cause Failure Analysis for Reactor Protection Sys-tem Reliability Studies / Thomas Wierman, Steven Eide,Cindy Gentillon (INEEL), Dale Rasmuson (NRC, Rock-ville) 310

Common Cause Failure Analysis of Hydraulic Scram andControl Rod Systems in the Swedish and Finnish BWRPlants / Tuomas Mankamo (Avaplan Oy-Finland) 318

Common Cause Failure Modeling in CANDU DesignProbabilistic Safety Assessment / Warren Vesik (AECL-Canada) 327

ON-LINE MAINTENANCE ISSUESAND INSIGHTS-PANEL

Monday, August 23, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chairs: K. Kiper (NAESC)D. Brewer (Duke Energy)

Panel 335

MODELING CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPSIN APPLICATIONS OF PRA-PANEL

Tuesday, August 24,19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: G. Parry (NRC)

Panel 339

FIRE SAFETY ANALYSIS IN PSA-II

Tuesday, August 24, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: Mardy Kazarians (Kazarians & Assoc)

Fire Risk Analysis for Loviisa 1 Turbine Hall / Matti Lehto(Fortum Eng-Finland), Jussi K. Vaurio (Fortum Power andHeat Oy-Finland) 343

Estimation of the Frequency of Fire Scenario by Means ofImproved Apportionment of the Frequency of Fires Asso-ciated with Engulfed Ignition Sources / Julian PanajotovArgirov (INRNE-Bulgaria) 350

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Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assess-ment / Jeffrey LaChance, Steven P. Nowlen, Frank Wyant(SNL) 356

SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Tuesday, August 24, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: P. Hessel (AECB-Canada)

Lessons Learned from an Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analy-sis of a Transient Simulation for a PSA / Eduard Hofer, Mar-tina Kloos (GRS-Germany) 363

Selection of the Appropriate Technique for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis: A Decision Tree Approach / ClaudiaM. Rocco S., A. J. Miller (Robert Gordon Univ-United King-dom) 369

A Treatment of Uncertainties for Component Reliability orInitiator Frequency Estimates Based on Combining DataSources with the Potential of Non-Homogeneity / VladimirMorozov (Atomenergoproekt-Russia) 376

PSA PRINCIPLES AND INSIGHTS

Tuesday, August 24, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: D. Bley (Buttonwood Consult)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment as a Forensic Science: TheEffect of Daubert and Kumho Tire on PRAs as Evidence /Vincent M. Brannigan, Carol Smidts (Univ of Maryland) .. 385

The Results of Probability Analysis of the First-Level Safetyfor the Bilibino NPP / A. V. Antonov, I. S. Volnikov, A. V.Dagaev, V. V. Dolgov, Yu. V. Ilyin, 1. M. Shvedenko (IPPE-Russia) 391

RISK-INFORMED REGULATION ANDREGULATORY PERSPECTIVE

Tuesday, August 24, 19998:00-9:45 a.m.

Chair: / . Murphy (NRC)M. Versteeg (KFD)

PSA Applications: Safety Goals and Acceptance Guide-lines / M. A. Cunningham, G. M. Holahan, T. L King, J. A.Murphy, G. W. Parry (NRC) 401

On the Role of Defense in Depth in Risk-Informed Regu-lation / J. N. Sorensen, G. E. Apostolakis, T. S. Kress, D. A.Powers (NRC) 408

VI]

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Development of Risk-Based Performance Indicators /Patrick W. Baranowsky, Steven E. Mays, Thomas R. Wolf(NRC) 414

A Pilot Study on Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection / J.Mononen, A. Julin, J. Hinttala, I. Niemela, R. Rantala, O.Valkeajdrvi, R. Virolainen (STUK-Finland) 422

REVISITING THE ASSUMPTIONSCOMMON TO PSA's-PANEL

Tuesday, August 24, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chairs: Dennis C. Bley (Buttonwood Consult)

Panel 431

DATA COLLECTION ANALYSIS

Tuesday, August 24, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: G. Labadie (EdF-France)

New LOCA Frequencies in Barseback-1 PSA Update—AnApplication of a Piping Failure Database / Bengt Lydell (RSATechnol), Ingemar Ingemarson (Barsebdck Kraft—Sweden),Ralph Nyman (SKI-Sweden) 435

Innovative Use of EPRI Loss of Offsite Power Data for Dual-Unit Plant Frequency and Recovery / Xavier Polanski(ComEd, Downers Grove) 443

Engineering and Safety Assessment of Field Experience Re-lated to Pressurized Water Reactor Primary System Leaks /V. N. Shah, M. B. Sattison, A. G. Ware, C. L. Atwood, R. S.Hartley (INEEL), C. Hsu (NRC, Rockville) 450

Bayesian Modeling of Failure Rates and Initiating Event Fre-quencies / Eduard Hofer, Jorg Peschke (GRS-Germany) .. 458

COMBINING DSA AND PSA

Tuesday, August 24, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: F. Rahn (EPRI)C. Tzanos (ANL)

Regulatory Treatment of Non-Safety Systems for PassivePlants: Application to the AP600 / Alan E. Levin, NicholasT. Saltos (NRC), Constantine P. Tzanos (ANL) 467

Regulatory Experience with Blending of Deterministic andProbabilistic Information in Risk-Informed Applications /Samuel S. Lee, Michael C. Cheok, Richard J. Barrett(NRC) 474

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Dynamic Reliability Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulationand First Order Reliability Methods / Martin M. Woltereck(Technische Universitat-Germany) 481

Integrated Thermal Hydraulic Analysis and Probabilistic As-sessment for Safety Evaluation and Scenario Screening ofthe Westinghouse AP600 Reactor / Fei Li (Univ of Mary-land), Yue Guan (AST&M), MohammadModarres (Univ ofMaryland) 489

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OFDIGITAL SYSTEMS

Tuesday, August 24, 199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chairs: S. Guarro (Aerospace Corp)C. Smidts (Univ of Maryland)

Dependability Estimation of Digital System by OperationalProfile-Based Fault Injection / Jong Gyun Choi, Poong HyunSeong (KAIST-Korea) 499

Qualitative Analysis of Petri Nets / Gerald Point (IXI-LaBRl-France) 507

Development of Markov Model for Emergency Diesel Gen-erators Based on Causal Loop Diagram / Sun-Yeong Choi,Joon-Eon Yang (KAERl-Korea) 513

Evaluation of Systems Reliability by Means of Binary De-cision Diagram / Y. Dutuit (lUT-A-France), A. Rauzy(LaBRI-France), J.-P. Signoret (CSTJF-France) 521

RISK-INFORMED REGULATION:INDUSTRY EXPERIENCES

Tuesday, August 24,199910:15 a.m.-Noon

Chair: D. True (ERIN Eng)

A Risk-Informed Regulation Pilot Project—Exemption fromthe Hydrogen Control Requirements at SONGS / P. Moieni,T. G. Hook (SCE, San Onofre), B. Christie (PerformanceTechnol) 529

Pilot Programs for Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Reg-ulation / Bob Christie (Performance Technol) 537

LEVEL II AND CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS

Tuesday, August 24, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: Douglas Chambers SENES Consult-Canada)

Using Individual Plant Examination Data to Derive the In-dividual Risk of Early Fatalities: Preliminary Results, In-

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sights, and Limitations of Approach / VinodMubayi, TrevorPratt (BNL), Mary Drouin (NRC, Rockville) 545

An Approach to Study the Effectiveness of Mitigation Ac-cident Management in a Probabilistic Frame / 0. Kawa-bata, N. Tanaka (NPEC-Japan) 551

The Characteristics and Construction of CANDU CET /Yong-Mann Song, Dong Ha Kim, Young Choi, Young Ho Jin,Kwang IlAhn (KAERI-Korea) 559

Accident Management Insights from the Level 2 PSA forthe Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt / Alfred Torri (RMA), MartinZeller (Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt-Switzerland), VladimirPokorny, Uwe Luettringhaus (RMA) 567

LESSONS FROM OPERATING EXPERIENCES

Tuesday, August 24, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: P. Baranowsky (NRC)

Rates of Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,1987-1995 / John P. Poloski, Corwin L Atwood, William J.Galyean (INEEL), Don G. Marksberry, Steven E. Mays(NRC) 577

Evaluation of Loss of Offsite Power Events at Nuclear PowerPlants: 1980-1996 / Frances M. Marshall, Corwin L At-wood, Dana L Kelly, David A. Prawdzik (INEEL), John W.Stetkar (Stetkar & Assoc) 585

Westinghouse Reactor Protection System Unavailability,1984-1995 / Steven Eide, Michael Calley, Cindy Gentillon,Thomas Wierman (INEEL), Dale Rasmuson, Don Marks-berry (NRC, Rockville) 593

General Electric Reactor Protection System Unavailability,1984-1995 / Steven Eide, Michael Calley, Cindy Gentillon,Thomas Wierman (INEEL), Hossein Hamzehee, Dale Ras-muson (NRC, Rockville) 601

Auxiliary/Emergency Feedwater System Reliability, 1987-1995 / William J. Galyean, John P. Poloski, Cynthia D. Gen-tillon, James K. Knudsen (INEEL), Dale M. Rasmuson,Donald G. Marksberry (NRC) 608

COMBINED DSA/PSA APPLICATIONS

Tuesday, August 24, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chairs: K. O'Kula (Westinghouse)H. Nourbakhsh

Safety Analysis System Using Thermo-Hydrodynamic Sim-ulation of Accident Sequences in Event Tree/Go-Flow /Takeshi Matsuoka (Ship Rsch lnst-Japan), Toshio Ida (MHI-Japan), Hiroshi Nakamura (CSD-Japan) 619

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RBMK-1500 Core Lifetime—Gas Gap Closure Probabilis-tic Assessment / M. Liaukonis, E. USpuras (Lithuanian En-ergy Inst-Lithuania), J. Augutis, V. Kopustinskas (VytautasMagnus Univ-Lithuania) 624

Incorporating Aging Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assess-ment/ Curtis L. Smith (INEEL), George Apostolakis, Tsu-MuKao (MIT), Vik Shah (INEEL) 631

SOFTWARE RELIABILITY

Tuesday, August 24, 19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chair: C. Smidts (Univ of Maryland)

EISTRAM—Experimental Investigation of the Pie-Technique / Harald Thunem, Bj0rn Axel Gran (OECD-Norway) 641

A Challenge for Software Reliability Analysis: DescriptiveParameters in Concurrent Real-Time Software Systems /Atoosa Jalashgar (Tech Univ of Denmark—Denmark) 649

Fault Tree Qualitatively Improves Reliability of Safety-Related Software / Marko Cepin, Borut Mavko (Jozef Ste-fan Inst-Slovenia) 657

Function Point Analysis: An Application to a Nuclear Re-actor Protection System / Nihal Kececi, Ming Li, CarolSmidts (Univ of Maryland) 665

Software Reliability Test in Nuclear Power Plant Uljin Units3, 4 / Tscheh-Kyuhn Oh, Dae-Il Kim (KINS-Korea), Jung-Woo Park (WooriGisool-Korea) 672

RISK-INFORMED INSERVICE TESTING

Tuesday, August 24,19991:30-2:45 p.m.

Chairs: Y. Khalil (Northeast Util)T. Hook (SCE)

Evaluation of Surveillance Test Arrangement of BWR UsingTime-Dependent Model / Kohei Hisamochi (Hitachi-Japan),Hiroshi Suzuki (IHIS-Japan), Shingo Oda (Hitachi Eng-Japan) 683

Advanced On-Line and Shutdown Safety Monitor at SanOnofre Nuclear Generating Station / Dennis W. Henneke,Thomas G. Hook (SCE, San Clemente) 690

Risk-Informed 1ST PRA Results for San Onofre (SONGS),Including Fire, Seismic and Shutdown Quantitative PRA /Dennis W. Henneke, Gary Chung (SCE, San Clemente), Mau-reen Coveney (SAIC, San Diego) 695

Progressively Improving Technical Specifications with RiskInformation History—Current—Future / Mark Reinhart(NRC) 699

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RISK-INFORMED DECISIONMAKING-PAPER/PANEL

Tuesday, August 24, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: Vicki Bier (Univ of Wisconsin)

Paper:Chemical Safety Assessment: Use in Food Additives, Su-perfund, and Other Decisions / James D. Wilson (Resourcesfor the Future) 705

Panel 713

Volume 2

PRECURSOR ANALYSIS METHODSAND RESOLUTIONS

Tuesday, August 24, 19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: P. Baranowsky (NRC)

Sophistication of SGTR Event Tree for Accident SequencePrecursor Analysis / Norio Watanabe, Masashi Hirano(JAERI-Japan), Hideo Takahashi (Business Tec-Japan) .. 1\1

Comparison of Some Precursor-Based Core-Melt FrequencyEstimators / J. Collet, P. Francois (EdF Clamart-Franee),B. Jourdain, B. Lapeyre (Ecole Nationale des Ponts etChaussees-France) 725

Results of the Precursor Analysis for German NuclearPower Plants / Helmut Hoertner, Siegfried Babst (GRS-Germany) 731

French Precursor Studies: Methods and Insights / VIFauchille (IPSN/DES/SEREP-France), J. M. Lanore(IPSN/DES/DIR-France), F. Pichereau (IPSN/DES/SERS-France), J. Tirira (IPSN/DES/SEREP-France) 738

DSA/PSA INTERFACES ANDUNCERTAINTY CONSIDERATIONS

Tuesday, August 24,19993:15-5:00 p.m.

Chair: F. Eltawila (NRC)

Enhanced Generalized Performance Assessment of Near-Optimized Pressurized Water Reactor Core Configurationsby Multi-Valued Possibilistic Processing / AnastasiosMironidis (NYPA), Leon Lidofsky (Columbia Univ), Left-eris Tsoukalas (Purdue Univ) 747