1

Roadmap for

moving to a low

carbon economy in

2050

Jos Delbeke, Director General

DG Climate Action

European Commission

2

Climate change a global long-term challenge

Cancun achievements: Common goal: stay below

2°C Emission pledges

by countries responsible for > 80% of global emissions,

not sufficient for our 2°C goal!

Low-carbon development strategies expected from developed

countries, encouraged for developing

countries

European Council calls for a forward-looking vision:

Science: cut global emissions by at least -50% by 2050 wrt to 1990

EU objective: reduce emissions by 80-95% by

2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary

reductions by developed countries, appropriate action by developing countries

Map the road from now to 2050!

33

Building on EU Climate Action until 2020…

4

EU implements its 2020 pledge

Cut GHG emissions by 20% wrt. 1990 EU Emissions Trading

System cuts emissions from industrial installations, aviation from 2012

National emission targets cover buildings, services, agriculture, transport…

Increase share of renewables in EU’s energy mix to 20%

Improve energy efficiency by 20% (compared to business as usual projections)

EU has taken significant steps towards -20% emissions by 2020 but still challenging

55

Decoupling EU emissions from growth

EU emissions -16.3% and EU GDP + 40% in 1990-2009

National targets increase renewable energy use (wind/solar + biomass heating)

EU ETS: fosters clean energy production (100 Mt CO2 cut in 2009 from less coal)

Policies for buildings, energy-using products: EU emissions down since 2004

6

Climate change at heart of Europe 2020 strategy

EU increasingly depends on imported fossil fuels in tensed global markets

EU strong in manufacturing industries, other regions invest in green growth

More frequent and severe floods, storms, heat waves, droughts would impact our agriculture, tourism, transport, health

EU economic strategy integrates 2020 climate goals, at highest level

EU to improve its resource efficiency for “Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”

2005 : US$ 228 billion

77

…looking into 2050 horizon

88

Long-term climate action: to avoid dangerous temperature

increase

Global emissions pathways in the next 40 years will determine likely warming by end of century

Meeting the Cancun « below 2°C » objective requires cooperation Global “2°C pathway”: peak

by 2020 at the latest, at least -50% below 1990 by 2050

Leadership by developed countries: -25-40% below 1990 by 2020, -80-95% by 2050

Deviation from BAU for developing countries~ -15-30% from BAU by 2020

9

Long-term scenarios about global emissions

Current trends and policies lead to only c. -40%GHG by 2050, not 2°C! One working scenario for global action consistent wih our common 2°C goal

EU: -80 to 95% in 2050 wrt. 1990, at least 80% domestic

And deviation from BAU by Developing Countries in 2050 eq. -5% wrt. to 1990 or - 80% wrt. to BAU

In the context of Leadership by Developed Countries -80% in 2050 wrt. to 1990

Developed countries

05

10152025303540

1990 2010 2030 2050

Gt C

O2

-eq

.

Baseline Global Action

Developing countries

05

1015202530354045

1990 2010 2030 2050

Gt C

O2

-eq

.

Baseline Global Action

1010

Pathways securing 2°C goals: Gradual, cost-effective emission

reductions!

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 2010 2030 2050

Ton

CO

2-eq

per

100

0$ G

DP

World

DevelopedCountries

DevelopingCountries

EU 27

China

Meeting 2°C: by improving GHG intensity/GDP in all regions!

Eq. reduced per capita emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 2010 2030 2050

Ton

GH

G p

er ca

pita

World

DevelopedCountries

DevelopingCountries

EU 27

China

Not about targets, but identifying cost-effective trajectory Gradual emission reductions

-1.0% per year 2010-2020 vs 1990-1.5% per year 2020-2030 vs 1990-2.0% per year 2030-2050 vs 1990

1111

How to reduce EU emissions in the context of

long-term global action

12

Cost-effective pathway:• -25% in 2020, - 40% in 2030, -60% in 2040

A cost-effective pathway towards 2050

Analysis at EU level reveals 80% domestic reduction in 2050:

• Is feasible with available technologies, do not depend on specific techno

• Requires all sectors contribute, to

a varying degree & pace0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

1313

Energy efficiency - single most important contribution by

2050

Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency improvementRoadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and beyond

Extra measures in Energy efficiency plan. EU Emission Trading Scheme key instrument.

17%

24%

21%

13%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Industry Transport Households Tertiary

Savings potential 2020

Energy consumption 2020

14

All sectors, sources to contribute consistently

Across sectors:

R&D and Deployment, e.g.

Implement Strategic Energy

Technology Plan

Leverage private sector

investments; provide clarity for

long term investments

Lift remaining barriers to energy

efficiency

Leave no sector aside, e.g. reap

cost-effective potential for

emission reduction in

agriculture from now to 2030

1515

Investing in our low-carbon future, reaping

opportunities

16

Investing in a low carbon future

Moving along cost-effective pathway to 2050: significant increase in domestic investments EU additional investment: € 270 bn/yr 2010-2050, 1.5% GDP

built environment (buildings and appliances): € 75 bn.transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 bn.power (electricity generation, grid): € 30

bn.

Note: Not an extra cost, but an investment in the EU economyDelaying action increases overall costsR&D and early demonstration/deployment essentialResulting fuel cost savings: € 175 to 320 bn./yr. (average on 2010-2050)

1717

Global climate action – energy security benefits at global level

Global GHG emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

19

90

= 1

00

%

Baseline Fragmented action Global Action

Oil price development

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

$ p

er

ba

rre

l

Baseline Fragmented action Global Action

Benefits highest with global action, that results in overall lower fuel costs, across regions

EU long-term action in the context of global action would make Europe’s economy more energy secure:

Halves imports of oil and gas compared to today

Saving 400 billion € of the oil and gas import bill by 2050, equivalent of >3% of today’s GDP

Safeguards against macro-economic impacts of future energy price hikes

18

Coping with scarcer oil resources at global level

EU analysis join WEO 2010 analysis about average annual OPEC oil export revenues until 2030 and beyond, and opportunities for investing in future sustainable growth

In all regions: shift from fuel costs to investment expenditureGDP more secure from energy shocks

1919

EU action as part of Global action – largest benefits for households

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

2005

=100

Household income Value added industry

Ref -Reference scenario Effective Technologies (global action)

Effective Technologies (fragmented action)

Ensure no increase in average end-user electricity prices over time

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Pa

ss

en

ge

r tr

an

sp

ort

co

st

as

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

ld in

co

me

Reference (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices) Effect. Techn. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)

Effect. Techn. (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices)

Reduced Transport costs per household

Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and € 88 billion in 2050

20

Moving to a low-carbon economy -Benefits for growth and jobs

Significant increase in domestic investmentsGDP and GHG decoupling

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

19

90

= 1

00

%GDP GHG emissions

Innovation in key growth sectors crucial for future competitiveness

Sustain dynamic growth with GDP decoupled from emissions after 2020

Source of new growth and jobs More demand for jobs now (renovation of

buildings) Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million

by 2020 Use auctioning and tax revenues for

reduction of labour costs, spur investments and R&D, future jobs

Long term job prospects depend on favourable economic framework conditions: R&D, entrepreneurship, investments

21

Next Steps

To be followed by: Council Conclusions in June,

discussions in European Parliament

Sectoral policy developments (2050 energy roadmap, White Paper on transport…)

National and regional low carbon strategies

to promote international cooperation, mutual learning on LEDS and integrated LEDS/MRV/mitigation actions

A roadmap to a competitive low-carbon economy, identifying:

cost-effective pathways, with milestones

key technologies investments needs and

benefits opportunities and trade-offsTo guide EU, national and

regional policiesTo give direction to private

sector and private households for long term investments

2222

For further information:

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm