rolta final

1For private circulation only

Company Profile

Registered OfficeRolta Tower 22nd StreetMIDC-Marol Andheri (East)Mumbai - 400093 - Maharashtra.Telephone No. 91-022-28326666Website: www.rolta.com

Chairman: Kamal K SinghBusiness Group: NA

Shareholding Pattern as on 30/09/2006

Major Holders %

Promoters 40.75

Institutional Investors 16.81

Other Investors 20.13

General Public 22.31

Stock Data

Market Cap (Rs crore) 1965.54

Shares Outstanding (in crore) 7.99

52-week High (Rs) 285.00

52-week Low (Rs) 124.00

Avg. Volume 300902

Absolute Return 3 mth (%) 11.5

Absolute Return 12 mth (%) 34.43

Sensex Return 3 mth (%) 17.79

Sensex Return 12 mth (%) 56.15

Nitin [email protected]

ICICI Brokerage Services Limited,2nd Floor, Stanrose House,Appasaheb Marathe Road,Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025.

Performance Chart

Information TechnologyDecember 30, 2006

ICICIdirect Code: ROLIND

Company Report

For private circulation only

Rolta India is a leading provider of Geographic Information Systems (GIS)and Engineering Design Automation (EDA) services in the country. Thecompany is experiencing strong traction in its businesses, much higher thanit has ever experienced in its 17-year history, and at compelling valuationsmaking a strong case for investment.

KEY TRIGGERS

q Riding the wave of infrastructure spendingThe quantum of projects that are expected to be executed in areas likepower, refining, telecom and ship-building in India are estimated at awhopping $350 billion by 2012. We believe that the company is on a strongfooting to capture opportunities arising from these projects on the back ofits strategic alliances with industry leaders like Intergraph, Stone & Webster,Thales and Dow Chemicals.

q Employee additions indicate higher tractionThe company plans to increase its headcount by 66% during FY06-FY08Efrom the current 3,000 employees to 5,000. It also plans to make a capexof Rs 150 crore every year for the next two years indicating strongmomentum in the business.

q Strategic acquisitionRolta plans to make a strategic acquisition in the GIS/EDA/E-solutions spaceto add capabilities and increase customer base thereby giving a furtherfillip to the business.

q Robust order bookThe company has a robust order book of Rs 600 crore executable overtwo and a half years. This gives us an earnings visibility of Rs 240 croreper year.

VALUATIONS

At the current price of Rs 259, the stock trades at a P/E of 9.45x its FY08E. Webelieve the current price does not capture the upsides of a business that willbe among the key beneficiaries of infrastructure spending in the country. Thecompany is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.8% over the next two years andalso see its EPS grow at a CAGR of 31% during the period The companysvaluation looks very attractive when compared to its immediate peer InfotechEnterprises and other companies in the IT industry. At the target price, thestock would trade at a market multiple of 12x which is quite undemanding fora company on a high-growth trajectory. We rate the scrip as an Outperformer.

Current PriceRs 259 (24th Nov)

Target PriceRs 328

Potential upside26%

Time Frame12-15 mths

Rolta IndiaOUTPERFORMER

Year to March 31 FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Net Profit 90.2 127.3 170.1 219.1

Shares in issue (crore) 6.4 8.0 8.0 8.0

EPS (Rs) 14.2 15.9 21.3 27.4

% Growth -11.1 12.5 33.6 28.8

P/E (x) 18.3 16.3 12.17 9.45

Price/Book (x) 3.6 2.2 1.7 1.5

EV/EBIDTA 11.34 8.09 6.31 4.76

RoNW (%) 19.6 13.5 14.4 15.6

RoCE (%) 16.6 23.7 23.2 24.7

(Rs Crore)Exhibit 1: Key Financials


Incorporated in 1989, Rolta India is a leading provider of Geographic Information systems (GIS),and Engineering Design Automation (EDA) services in India. The company is headquartered in Mumbaiand operates through a network of 12 regional /branch offices in India and 7 subsidiaries located in theUSA, Canada, Netherlands, Germany, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The company enjoys a 70% market share of the Geo-spatial market (applications likephotogrammetric mapping, aerial triangulation, digital terrain modeling, et.). Rolta formed a 50:50 jointventure with Stone & Webster to capture emerging opportunities in the power and refining sectors in thecountry. The company also has alliances with Intergraph and Computer associates to provide Geospatial/digital mapping services and e-business related security solutions respectively. The company recentlyinked a joint venture agreement with Thales to cater to emerging opportunities in defence commandcenter projects. Rolta has 2,50,000 sq ft of world-class development centers in Mumbai capable of seating3,000 employees in a single shift. The company is certified for ISO 9001:2000, BS7799, SEI CMM Level 5and BS 15000. Rolta also has an impressive client list that includes the likes of British Telecom, SaudiTelecom, Bear Stearns, Canadian Hydrographic Service, Cingular Shell and an many others.

COMPANY BACKGROUND

Exhibit 2: Business Analysis

Source: Company, ICICIdirect Research

INVESTMENT RATIONAL

I. Robust integrated business model

Roltas business is driven by three complimentary pillars: GIS, EDA and E-Solutions. We believe that this triplecombination gives the company an edge as it can cater to the entire portfolio of customer requirements, quiteunmatched by any of its competitors. While the GIS and EDA businesses cater to spatial data / applications andplant design automation segments respectively, the E-Solutions business addresses the need for e-security solu-tions and networking required to put spatial and plant design data on networks. In addition to its three pillarbusinesses the company is also powered by strategic alliances.


a) Strategic alliances the key to securing bidsRoltas strategic alliances with industry leaders give it a ready technical pre-qualification to bid for tenders andrequest for proposals (RFPs). The companys GIS and EDA business groups bid for projects in the area of defense,power and refining among others. These are high value projects and require precision expertise. Roltas tie-ups inkey areas increase its competitive positioning (See Exhibit: 3).

Exhibit 3: Strategic alliances


ii) Stone & Webster Rolta Ltd (JV)SWRL addresses Roltas need to be an end to end integrated project services player covering the entire gamut ofactivities from engineering design, procurement and construction management. The JV derives its strength fromStone & Websters expertise in the nuclear/conventional power projects and refining and Roltas strong engineeringdesign service capabilities. Stone & Webster is a leading player in the US market for nuclear and refining projectsand is credited with a 70% share of the nuclear power generation market in the US. This gives the company aready technical pre-qualification for bids. The JV is likely to get a fillip with the approval of the Indo-US nuclear co-operation bill.

iii) GIS Low risk business modelWe believe that Roltas GIS business has evolved itself into a low risk model by spreading itself across the valuechain. The companys offerings spread from basic mapping services to building applications around a map database.Rolta also works across a number of GIS platforms like Integraph, ESRI, GE-Smallworld, Z/I, VISION, Telcordia andBentley systems allowing it to cater to clients irrespective of the GIS platform. In addition the company alsogenerates a number of process IPRs with each projec thereby reducing the cost of executing similar projects at alater date, thereby increasing margins.

Exhibit 4: Rolta : present across the GIS value chain

Source: Company, ICICI direct Research

Strategic alliance partners Domain expertise RemarksStone & Webster Nuclear, fossil fuel and geothermal With the addition of 100,000 MW of power

power plants and process plants for projects by 2012 and oil refining capacitiespolymers, commodity chemicals, expected to grow by 70% by 2012 the add-olefins and refining. ressable opportunity for the joint venture is

enormous

Intergraph GIS and CAD/CAM applications in Intergraph has a 85% market share invarious verticals like plant design India for GIS systems.and engineering, ship building etc.

Dow Chemicals Chemical processing technology Rolta entered into an agreement with DOWand plant design to act as its partner to implement such

engineering design services.

Thales Defence, aerospace and security To address Command, Control, Commun-ications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveil-lance, Target Acquisition and Reconnais-sance (C4ISTAR) information systems, fordomestic and international markets


iv) EDA Business driven by strong competenciesThe EDA business enjoys the twin advantage of strong design competencies and a low cost base. However thecompanys USP is not so much about low cost than it is about its capabilities. The EDA business has four subdivi-sions that cater to different areas of a projects design: Instrumentation & electrical, Piping, civil & structure andprocess & mechanical. Rolta builds efficiencies in each of these divisions by developing process IPRs (softwarealgorithms) and using technologies like lasergrammetry and photogrammetry to reduce engineering design cycletime. The company has also built a strong engineering talent pool capable of executing projects at a rapid pace.The efficiencies derived from these initiatives allows the company to aggressively bid for tenders while keepingsteady state margins.

Exhibit 5: Plant design automation - sound technology platform

Source: Company

iii) One stop engineering design services power houseRolta has positioned itself as an engineering design services power house by bidding for business only throughglobal tenders and RFPs thereby increasing the companys visibility in the global arena. The company does notderive significant revenues from any single customer thereby assuring a very low client concentration risk. Theaverage deal size in the GIS business is $2 million, $1 million in the EDA business and $0.2 million in the E-solutions space.

II. Opportunity

i) Riding the wave of infrastructure spendingRolta has firmly positioned itself through its different business segments: GIS, EDA, E-solutions, and joint venturesto capture the ongoing wave of infrastructure spending. The spends across different sectors like Power, Refining,Ship building, Defence, Telecom and Public Safety among others is estimated at a whopping $350 billion by 2012.Power generation in the country is expected to increase from the current 1,15,000 MW to 2,45,000 MW till 2017through conventional methods and by another 40,000 MW through nuclear power. Refining, petrochemicals,pipelines & storage capacities are expected to double over the next decade while there is a major shortage of shipbuilding capacities globally thereby forcing ship builders to expand capacities and outsource ship design con-tracts.


Exhibit 6: Plant design automation - sound technology platform

ii) GIS: domestic market to explodeThe domestic market for GIS is likely to see a massive expansion with the implementation of the National Mappolicy. The recommendations of the policy, if accepted by the Ministry of defence, can relax restrictions on theavailability of map data and facilitate value addition on digital maps across all cities. The market for GIS in India iscurrently driven by the Govt. of India and PSUs. However the implementation of the policy would increase theadoption of GIS based solutions in the private sector by reducing costs as players like Rolta would no longerhave to re-invent the wheel by creating new maps and obtaining clearances thereby growing the market manyfold.

The global market for GIS is estimated at $6 billion for CY05 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7% to $8 bil-lion by CY10. The domestic market is estimated a $80 million which is a fraction of the global market. Howeverthis is set to change as the government and private organizations grappling with pressures of high growth ratesturn to technologies like GIS to manage growth cost effectively.

iii) GIS: Defense opportunities aboundRolta currently caters to the defense establishment in India through 67 support offices across the country. Theincreasing threat of cross border terrorism coupled with the increasing costs of patrolling the countrys largeborders is driving the need for GIS based security solutions. Moreover the governments plan to increase privateparticipation in the defense sector will give a further fillip to the business. Rolta plans to cater to this opportunityand also address international markets through its 51:49 joint venture with Thales of France. The joint venturewould develop, customize and deliver state-of-the-art Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelli-gence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition & Reconnaissance (C4ISTAR) information systems. The management ex-pects the joint venture to generate revenues of $500 million over a five year period starting from the last quarter ofFY08E. However we have not factored in any revenues from this JV in our valuations.



III. Strong growth across segments

i) GISThe GIS business is seeing good traction with projects from government agencies , telecom and electricity, urbandevelopment and public safety. The GIS business has grown at a CAGR of 21% from Rs 186 crore in FY03 to Rs 329crore in FY06 and we expect this business to grow at a CAGR of 23% during FY06-FY08E to Rs 499 crore.

ii) EDAThe wave of infrastructure spending that will continue in the eleventh plan would see the EDA business grow at aCAGR of 29.1% to Rs 255 crores where according to Rolta, it has a 80% market share.

iii) E-solutionsThe E-solutions business though originally envisioned to build synergies with the GIS and EDA businesses byoffering networking solutions to provide GIS and plant design data on networks, currently rides on the strategicalliance with CA (originally Computer Associates) to implement solutions across North America, Europe and Asia.This business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 37% over the next two years to Rs 98 crores.

Exhibit 7: Revenue growth

Source: ICICIdirect Research

iv) Stone & Webster Rolta Ltd (JV)he joint venture recorded a revenue growth of 128% in FY06 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 88% over

FY08E to 52.8 crore. The JV is likely to get a fillip with the approval of the Indo-US nuclear co-operation bill.

IV) Acquisition steroid for growthRolta plans to make an acquisition that could bolster any one of its business lines. The company raised $90 millionvia a GDR issue in 2006 to repay debt and finance the acquisition. The acquisition is likely to materialize by the endof the current financial year and is expected to be in the range of $10 million to $ 40 million.

V. Business flow - reaffirmed by employee additions and capexWe believe that the business traction over the next two years is reaffirmed by the companys y-o-y employeeaddition plans. Rolta had 3000 employees at the end of FY06 and plans to add 1000 employees every year for thenext two years resulting in an incremental capex of Rs150 crore. Rolta has a higher per seat capex as comparedto other IT companies at Rs 15 lakh per seat as the hardware and software requirements for GIS and EDA arerelatively more expensive than standard requirements by IT companies.

Exhibit 8: Employee additions expected to be healthy

Source: Company, ICICI direct Research

Year FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 CAGR % FY07E FY08E GIS (Rs. cr) 186 238 275 329 21 400 499 EDA (Rs. cr) 72 100 120 153 29 202 255 E-solutions (Rs. cr) 9 13 19 52 79 74 98


FINANCIALS

EBIDTA margins to decline marginally but remain healthyRolta is among the few companies that enjoys EBIDTA margins of over 43%. We expect this rate to dip marginallyon the back of a significant ramp-up in employees and on lower utilization rates which we have built in ourestimates. We have assumed lower utilization rates of 70% from the 85% in FY06 as these new employee additionswould require training thereby reducing EBIDTA margins by 130 bps and 65bps in FY07E and FY08E, respectively.

Exhibit 9: Healthy EBIDTA margins

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Return ratios to improveSignificant cash position on the books is pulling down the return ratios, which in turn is a drag on the valuation.We expect the ROE and RoCE to improve post acquisition that could also lead to a significant re-rating in P/E. Thecompany had diluted equity by 25.47% in FY06 through a GDR issue of US$90 million to repay debt and make astrategic acquisition. The NPM is expected to grow by 145bps in FY07E and by 22bps in FY08E due to zero debtposition. The ROE is also set to grow by 84bps and 125bps in FY07E and FY08E to 14.4% and 15.6%, respectivelyon the back of higher volume growth. Moreover the company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 25%over the past few years. We have not factored a dividend payout in our estimates keeping in view of the hugeyearly capex. However dividend payouts during FY07E and FY08E should further bolster the RONW.

Exhibit 10: Improving NPM and ROE



VALUATIONS

Roltas integrated and low risk business model positions it aptly to exploit the emerging opportunites from infra-structure spending. We see significant value accretion over the long-term from the Thales JV and the passing ofthe Nuclear deal with the US. We believe that the current macro opportunities will drive the business to a newerorbit. Revenues are likely to see solid growth at a CAGR of 26.8%. The stock trades at compelling valuations of 1.4xbook, EV/EBIDTA of 4.4x FY08E and at an undemanding P/E of 8.97x its FY08E EPS of Rs 27.4, while its immediatecomparable peer trades at 11.59x its FY08E EPS of 23.9.

Even in a comparable peer group comparison (we selected the 13th and 15th largest companies by market cap)the company is favourably placed. Significant improvement in return ratios will lead to a P/E re-rating. We haveassigned a conservative multiple of 12x based on its historical valuations and looking at the average rating of itspeers on the forward earnings. At the target multiple the stock would trade at Rs 328 giving us an upside of 26%.We rate the scrip as an Outperformer.

Exhibit 11: Compelling valuation v/s immediate peer


Exhibit 12: Peer Comparison


FY07E EPS FY08E EPS Prices P/E FY07 P/E FY08 Subex Azure 18.5 42.1 650 35.14 15.44 Hexaware 11.73 14.82 174 14.83 11.74 Rolta India 21.3 27.4 259 12.16 9.45 Infotech Enterprises 18.6 23.9 303.5 16.32 12.7


GLOSSARY

GIS: GIS (Geographic information systems) is a system used to create, store and analyze map data. These mapscan be created by satellite imaging, ground surveys and aerial surveys. These maps when combined with otherdata like telecom networks, vehicles, buildings or any other asset mutates into a powerful tool for managing assetsfrom a central command center thereby reducing management costs and increasing efficiencies tremendously.The possible applications that can be developed around a GIS database are only a function of a managementsimagination.

Photogrametry : Photogrammetry is the technique of measuring objects (2D or 3D) from photographs, but itmay be also imagery stored electronically on tape or disk taken by video or CCD cameras or radiation sensorssuch as scanners.

Lasergrametry : Lasergrammetry is a precise laser data collection method used to document large objects andscenes.

Exhibit 13: GIS: Indicative applications of the technology



Advance payment of loansto increase profitability

EPS growing at a CAGR of 31.2%

Sales growing ataCAGR of 26.8%

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (CONSOLIDATED)

Profit and Loss Account (Rs crore)FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Sales 414.57 534.88 673.48 859.90

% Growth 29.02 25.91 27.68

Total expenses 267.22 312.04 403.06 520.78

Operating profit 158.44 231.32 282.53 355.17

% Growth 46.00 22.14 25.71

Other Income 11.09 8.48 12.10 16.05

Interest 11.58 14.68 0.48 0.00

EBDT 146.86 216.64 282.05 355.17

%Growth 47.51 30.19 25.93

Depreciation 48.85 74.66 93.09 111.77

Profit Before Tax (PBT) 98.01 141.98 188.96 243.40

% Growth 44.86 33.09 28.81

Taxation 8.60 14.67 18.90 24.34

Tax as % of PBT 8.77 10.33 10.00 10.00

Net Profit 90.22 127.31 170.07 219.06

% Growth 41.11 33.58 28.81

Shares O/S 6.37 7.99 7.99 7.99

EPS (Rs) 14.17 15.93 21.28 27.41

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Balance Sheet (Rs crore)FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Sources of funds

Share capital 63.7 79.9 79.9 79.9

Reserves & surplus 392.9 861.5 1104.3 1323.4

Secured loans 186.3 9.8 9.8 9.8

Unsecured loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Deferred tax liability 17.2 25.3 25.3 25.3

Current liabilities & prov 108.7 107.8 107.0 134.7

Total 768.8 1084.3 1326.3 1573.1

Net Block 321.2 384.3 441.0 483.7

Capital WIP 42.2 68.2 0.0 0.0

Investments 6.5 119.1 134.9 184.3

Cash 33.1 88.7 162.1 205.3

Trade receiveables 292.0 326.4 384.4 491.8

Loans & advances 54.8 74.2 176.2 174.2

Inventory 19.1 23.4 27.8 33.8

Misc exp W/o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 768.8 1084.3 1326.3 1573.1

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Cash Flow Statement (Rs crore)FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Sales 414.57 534.88 673.48 859.90

Pre tax profit from operations 86.92 133.50 176.8 627.35

Depreciation 48.85 74.66 93.09 111.77

Expenses (deffered)/written off -1.48 8.12 0.00 0.00

Pre tax cash from operations 134.29 216.28 269.95 339.12

Other income/prior period ad 11.90 8.48 12.10 16.05

Net cash from operations 146.19 224.76 282.05 355.17

Tax -8.60 -14.67 -18.90 -24.34

Cash profits 137.59 210.09 263.15 330.83

Increase in current liabilities 68.53 -5.26 -5.24 21.70

(Increase) in current assets 65.03 -38.75 -62.40 -113.43

(Increase) in fixed assets -115.19 -163.71 -81.68 -154.50

(Increase) in investments -0.17 -112.64 -15.80 -49.37

(Increase) in loans & advances 7.81 -19.42 -101.94 1.98

Cash flow from financing activities -139.86 181.04 72.77 0.00

Opening cash balance 50.77 33.05 88.73 162.06

Closing cash balance 33.05 88.73 162.06 205.28

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Attractive valuations

Ratios

FY05 FY06 FY07E FY08E

Sources of funds

EPS 14.17 15.93 21.28 27.41

Book value per share 71.69 117.81 148.20 175.61

SG&A exp/Sales 42.77 35.51 37.03 35.49

Employee exp/Sales 21.69 22.83 22.82 25.07

Market cap/Sales 3.78 3.68 2.92 2.29

Price/Book value 3.43 2.09 1.66 1.40

Operating margin (%) 38.22 43.25 41.95 41.30

Return on Net-worth 19.58 13.52 14.36 15.61

Debt/equity 0.52 0.41 0.01 0.01

Fixed assets turnover ratio 1.14 1.18 1.53 1.78

Debtors turnover ratio 1.43 1.64 1.75 1.75

Enterprise value 1796.31 1871.65 1782.51 1689.92

EV/EBIDTA 10.34 8.09 6.31 4.7

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect endeavours to provide objective opinions and ecommendations. ICICIdirect assigns ratings to its stocksaccording to their notional target price vs current market price and then categorises them as Outperformer,Performer, Hold, and Underperformer. The performance horizon is 2 years unless specified and the notional targetprice is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock.

Outperformer: 20% or more;Performer: Between 10% and 20%;Hold: +10% return;Underperformer: -10% or more.

DisclaimerThe report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consentof ICICI Brokerage Services Limited (IBSL). The author of the report does not hold any investment in any of the companies mentioned in this report.IBSL may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. This report is basedon information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracyor completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offerdocument or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutesinvestment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specificcircumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their owninvestment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This information may not betaken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks.IBSL and affiliates will not accept any liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. IBSL may have issued otherreports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed orintended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction,where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IBSL and its affiliates to anyregistration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictionsor to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe suchrestriction.

Harendra Kumar Head - Research and Content [email protected]

ICICIdirect Research DeskICICI Brokerage Services Limited,

2nd Floor, Stanrose House,Appasaheb Marathe Road,

Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 [email protected]

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