rom ania p nom inal and real convergence on the way to ... · 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 ro ee...
TRANSCRIPT
Romania – nominal and
real convergence
on the way to euro adoption
Ionut Dumitru
President of the Fiscal Council, Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest,
and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania
Feb 2015
Eurozone enlargement – current status
Source: European Commission
Initia l ta rget Date of setting the ta rget Current ta rget
Bulgaria 2010 2004 no target date
Croatia 2019 no target date
Czech Republic 2009/ 2010 2003 no target date
Hungary 2008 2003 no target date
Lithuania 2007 2004 2015
Poland 2008/ 2009 2003 no target date
Romania 2014 2007 2019
Denmark no target not obliged to join
Sweden no target de facto opt-out
United Kingdom no target not obliged to join
I. Nominal convergence.
Maastricht criteria
Source: European Commission
Nominal convergence: Maastricht criteria
1. Inflation
“the achievement of a high degree of price stability; a Member State has a price performance that is sustainable and an average rate of inflation, observed over a period
of one year before the examination, that does not exceed by more than 1.5 percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price
stability.”
2. Long-term interest rate developments
“observed over a period of one year before the examination, a Member State has had an average nominal long-term interest rate that does not exceed by more than two
percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability. Interest rates shall be measured on the basis of long-term
government bonds or comparable securities”
3. Public budget deficit is below 3.0% of GDP
“the sustainability of the government financial position will be apparent from having achieved a government budgetary position without a deficit that is excessive”, i.e. that exceeds 3.0% of GDP on permanent basis
4. The ratio of government debt to GDP is less than 60% of GDP
5. Exchange rate stability under ERM II mechanism
Member State has respected the normal fluctuation margins [+/-15%] provided for by the exchange rate mechanism on the European Monetary System without severe
tensions for at least the last two years before the examination
Tabloul de bord
Source: Fiscal Council
The impact of the new fiscal code on budget deficit (% of GDP)
-1.9
-2.9 -2.6
-4.6
-5.3
-8.6 -8.8
-5.9
-3.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.0 -1.3
-3.2 -3.3
-4.7
-5.5
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Effective Deficit (ESA 2010)
Structural balance
Medium term objective (MTO)
Maastricht criteria
Ample fiscal consolidation – decreasing public investments
Source: Eurostat, Ministry of Public Finances,
Reduction of public budget deficit was delayed as the most important adjustment measures were taken in July 2010 (increase in VAT from 19% to 24%, reduction of public
wages by 25%)
However, fiscal consolidation was quite fast and Romania has a low public budget deficit now (below 3% of GDP)
Unfortunately, the fiscal adjustment process was accompanied also by a sharp reduction of public investments
2
3
4
5
6
7
09Q 1 10Q 1 11Q 1 12Q 1 13Q 1 14Q 1 15Q 1e
Tota l public investments, ESA 2010 definition (% of GDP,
last 4 quarters)
Capita l expenditure funded from na tiona l budget (% of
GDP, last 4 quarters)
Note: Capital expenditure is a segment of total public investments
1 .2
2 .2
2 .9
5 .6 8 .9 6 .6 5 .3
2 .9
2 .2 1 .5
32 .3
33 .1
35 .4
33 .3
31 .7
32 .9
33 .833 .5
33 .033 .4
33 .4
35 .3
38 .338 .9
40 .6
39 .639 .1
36 .4
35 .2 34 .9
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Public budget deficit (% of GDP)
Public revenues (% of GDP)
Public ex penses (% of GDP)
E oluţia heltuielilor şi e iturilor ugetare după sta darde ESA
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Modifi ări 4 față
de 2013
Modifi ări 4 față
de 2009
Total venituri (% din PIB) 31,7 32,9 33,8 33,5 33 33,4 0,4 1,7
Venituri fiscale 17,1 17,7 19,1 19,1 18,6 19 0,4 1,9
Impozite indirecte, din
care: 10,7 11,8 13 13,1 12,8 12,8 0 2,1
TVA 6,5 7,5 8,6 8,4 8,3 7,8 -0,5 1,3
Accize* 3,1 3 3,1 3,1 3,1 : : 0
Impozite directe, din care: 6,4 6 6,1 6 5,9 6,2 0,3 -0,2
impozit pe venit 3,6 3,4 3,4 3,6 3,5 3,6 0,1 0
impozit pe profit 2,4 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,8 0,1 -0,6
Co tri uții asigurări sociale 10 9,3 9 8,8 8,7 8,6 -0,1 -1,4
Alte venituri curente 1,6 2,7 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,9 0,3 1,3
Total cheltuieli (% din PIB) 40,6 39,6 39,1 36,4 35,2 34,9 -0,3 -5,7
Consum intermediar 6,3 5,4 5,7 5,8 5,6 5,2 -0,4 -1,1
Re u erarea salariaților 10,7 9,5 7,8 7,7 8 7,7 -0,3 -3
Dobânzi 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,7 1,6 -0,1 0,1
Asiste ță so ială 13,2 13,7 13,1 12,1 11,7 11,9 0,2 -1,3
Su ve ții 1,1 1 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,5 -0,1 -0,6
Alte cheltuieli curente 1,5 1,9 2,1 2,5 1,9 2,2 0,3 0,7
For area rută de apital fix
6 5,7 5,4 4,8 4,5 4,3 -0,2 -1,7
Sold bugetar -8,9 -6,6 -5,3 -2,9 -2,2 -1,5 0,7 7,4
Sursa: Eurostat
Notă: * cifrele aferente anului 2014 nu sunt încă disponibile, iar diferenţa 2009-2014 se referă la 2009-2013.
Obiectivul pe termen mediu – constrangere
importanta
-4.7
-3.5
-2.0 -1.5
-1.2 -1.2
-2.2
-2.9
-5.6
-8.9
-6.6
-5.3
-2.9
-2.2
-1.5 -1.6
-3.5 -3.0
-2.0
-1.2 -0.6
0.6 0.4
1.2 1.3
2.0
-1.1
-1.8 -1.9
-2.3 -1.7 -1.4
-0.9 -0.4 -0.1
0.2 0.6 0.9
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
e
20
16
p
20
17
p
20
18
p
20
19
p
20
20
p
gap PIB
Deficit efectiv*
Deficit efectiv necesar pentru un deficit structural de 1% din PIB**
Criteriul de la Maastricht (deficit de 3% din PIB)
Source: AMECO
* Pentru 2015-2016 – Prognoza Comisiei Europene
** Calcule Consiliul Fiscal (crestere economica medie 2015-2020 de 4% la o crestere potentiala de 3%)
Source: Eurostat
Achieving the inflation criterion is a difficult task
3 .4
2 .8
2 .4 2 .4
2 .12 .0
1 .91 .8 1 .7 1 .7
RO EE HU UK AT AT LT M T LU PL
Average annua l infla tion ra te (from M ar
2010 to M ar 2015) - 10 la rgest advances
EU 28 average = 1.7%
Note: inflation dynamics over the last five years
46
5152
56
60
63 65 6567
73
BG RO PL HU LT HR CZ SK LV EE
Level of consumer prices in 2013
(% of Euro a rea 15 ), 10 low est levels
II. Real convergence
Public policies make a difference
Source: European Commission
29 .1
24 .5
39 .2
30 .6
59 .9
41 .7
45 .8
59 .0
28 .2
21 .7
48 .3
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
GDP per capita in PPS
(% of average for Germany and France)
Bulgaria Poland Hungary Romania
Note: Estimates for the year 2014
Real convergence: not a one way street
Source: European Commission
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
GDP per capita in PPS
(% of average for Germany and France)
Ita ly Ireland Portuga l Spa in Greece
Euro area enlargement: euro adopted recently only by small countries
Source: European Commission, Eurostat
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ma
lta
Cy
pru
s
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Slo
ve
nia
Slo
va
kia
Ro
ma
nia
Lith
ua
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Gre
ece
Sp
ain
Stable popula tion in 2013 (% of Euro area )
Gross domestic Product in 2013 (% of Euro area )
Euro adoption years:
2007: Slovenia
2008: Malta, Cyprus
2009: Slovakia
2011: Estonia
2014: Latvia
2015: Lithuania
Euro area enlargement: deep foreign trade integration for Euro area late comers
Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sp
ain
Po
rtu
ga
l
Gre
ece
Slo
ve
nia
Cy
pru
s
Ma
lta
Slo
va
kia
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Lith
ua
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2013 2013 2013
Ex ports of goods and services (% of GDP)
Exports tow ards EU member countries (% of GDP)* Exports tow ards non EU member countries (% of GDP)*
Tota l exports of goods and services in 2013 (% of GDP)
* computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries
Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capita at the moment of euro adoption
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
81
67
7578
89
72
6459 57 58
Sp
ain
Po
rtu
ga
l
Gre
ece
Slo
ve
nia
Cy
pru
s
Ma
lta
Slo
va
kia
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Lith
ua
nia
1999 2001 2007 2008 2008 2009 2011 2014 2015
GDP per capita in PPS as % of Germany+France
in the year of accession in Euro area
Discrepante regionale foarte mari si in crestere
Source: National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH.
Economic activity concentrated in a small number of counties
TR
B
GR
CLDJ
IF
CT
IL
OT
M H
GJ DB
PH BR TLVL AG
CSBZ
BV GLVNTMSB CV
HD
AB
ARBC
VSM S HR
N TCJ
SJ BN IS
BH
SV
M MSM
BT
N omina l GDP per capita (2011 , % of country average)
<= 50%
(50%, 75%]
(75%, 100%]
(100%, 125%]
(125%, 150%]
> 150%
Only 5 counties produce more than 40% of GDP.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Raiffeisen RESEARCH.
Large companies are concentrated even more
Over 50% of large companies are located in 5 counties.
TR
B
GR
CLDJ
IF
CT
IL
OT
M H
GJ DB
PH BR TLVL AG
CSBZ
BV GLVNTMSB CV
HD
AB
ARBC
VSM S HR
N TCJ
SJ BN IS
BH
SV
M MSM
BT
N umber of companies w ith net turnover above EUR 5 mn. (2012)
<= 50
(50 , 100]
(100 , 150]
(150 , 200]
(200 , 250]
> 250
III. Recent economic growth developments
A booming economy before the crisis
Source: Eurostat
BG
CZ
EE
LV
LT
HU
PL
RO
SI
SKHR
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2 4 6 8 10
An
nu
al
gro
wth
ra
te f
or
do
me
sti
c d
em
an
d
(av
era
ge
20
01
-20
08
)
Annua l grow th ra te for rea l GDP (average
2001 -2008 )
GDP grow th driven
by domestic
dema nd
GDP grow th driven
by ex ports
1 .82 .1
3 .3
4 .04 .3 4 .3
5 .76 .0 6 .2
6 .5
7 .4 7 .5
EA
EU
27
HU PL
HR
CZ
BG EE
SK
RO LV LT
Annua l average GDP grow th
(2001 -2008)
Scarce net inflows of foreign capital to private sector, slow recovery pace
Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics
Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolio inflows excluded
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
01
Q1
02
Q1
03
Q1
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
e
Rea l GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy )
6 .9% per year
2 .6% per year
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Jan
-Ma
r 2
01
5
Net FDIs (% of GDP)
Net loans, deposits (% of GDP)
Tota l inflow s of foreign capita l in priva te sector (% of GDP)
Signs of revival in households spending
Source: National Institute of Statisitcs, European Commission, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Note: normalized levels (deviation from mean relative to standard deviation); 3-month moving
averages Note: 3-months moving averages
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ap
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
0
Ap
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
8
Ap
r-0
7
Ap
r-0
6
Ap
r-0
5
Consumer confidence index
Euro a rea CEE 4 countries Romania
90
100
110
120
130
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-0
8
Reta il sa les
(defla ted turnover, 2010=100)
Non-foods, w ithout fuels Foods
Fuels Tota l reta il sa les
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross fixed capital formation at 2010 prices
Consumption at 2010 prices
GDP at 2010 prices
Evolutie foarte slaba a investitiilor in ultimii ani
Source: EUROSTAT, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Increasing volatility on the external markets
Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
De
c-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
VIX index
-0 .5
0 .0
0 .5
1 .0
1 .5
2 .0
2 .5
3 .0
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Yields for US and German T-securities
US 5Y US 10Y
Germany 5Y Germany 10Y
Deleveraging under way
Source: National Bank of Romania, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
04Q 4 06Q 4 08Q 4 10Q 4 12Q 4 14Q 4
Gross ex terna l debt, by sectors
Centra l bank and government (% of GDP)
Bank ing system (% of GDP)
Priva te non-bank ing sector (% of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
05Q 1 07Q 1 09Q 1 11Q 1 13Q 1 15Q 1e
Stock of bank ing loans, by sectors
Consumer loans (% of GDP)
Housing loans (% of GDP)
Bank ing loans for individua ls (% of GDP)
Bank ing loans for companies (% of GDP)
IV. Structural reforms – key to speed up the convergence process
Low level of competitiveness
Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum, 2014-2015
Note: Red lines denote scores for Romania
World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report –
Ranking (out of 144 countries)
Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum, 2014-2015
Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic
7.05 Effect of taxation on incentives to work, 1-7 (best) 140 91 110 128 88 119
6.04 Effect of taxation on incentives to invest, 1-7 (best) 128 81 107 133 102 114
7.08 Country capacity to retain talent, 1-7 (best) 128 142 80 122 117 130
7.07 Reliance on professional management, 1-7 (best) 126 113 47 114 71 74
7.01 Cooperation in labor-employer relations, 1-7 (best) 125 111 52 71 100 105
2.02 Quality of roads, 1-7 (best) 121 106 81 58 89 82
6.01 Intensity of local competition, 1-7 (best) 120 75 17 47 51 32
6.09 Prevalence of trade barriers, 1-7 (best) 117 99 72 30 66 38
1.08 Wastefulness of government spending, 1-7 (best) 116 98 7 96 85 126
7.09 Country capacity to attract talent, 1-7 (best) 115 142 93 118 124 117
1.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials, 1-7 (best) 114 134 106 122 67 141
4.10 Primary education enrollment, net %* 114 66 55 95 49 n/a
1.17 Ethical behavior of firms, 1-7 (best) 112 101 94 96 57 123
1. Corporate ethics 112 101 94 96 57 123
…. 5.06 Internet access in schools, 1-7 (best) 53 45 27 35 50 31
2.09 Fixed telephone lines/100 pop.* 52 42 63 37 78 68
9.03 FDI and technology transfer, 1-7 (best) 49 91 36 19 68 18
6.07 No. days to start a business* 48 84 92 14 111 87
. Stre gth of i estor prote tio , – est * 45 45 83 105 45 98
. Do esti arket size i dex, – est * 44 66 48 56 20 61
9.05 Fixed broadband Internet subscriptions/100 pop.* 40 39 41 31 46 47
6.06 No. procedures to start a business* 32 22 106 22 22 78
5.04 Quality of math and science education, 1-7 (best) 31 54 74 60 50 75
9. I t’l I ter et a d idth, k /s per user* 19 27 25 75 37 93
. Legal rights i dex, – est * 11 11 63 43 11 29
7.04 Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* 7 21 95 61 89 89
WO
RST
BES
T
World Bank Doing Business Report – Ranking (out of 189
countries)
Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015 Report
Starting a
Business
Registerin
g Property
Getting
Credit
Protecting
Minority
Investors
Trading
Across
Borders
Enforcing
Contracts
Rank RankTime
(days)Rank
Time
(days)
Cost (%
of
income
per
capita)
Rank Rank Rank Rank
Payments
(number
per year)
Time
(hours per
year)
Total tax
rate (%
profit)
Rank Rank RankTime
(years)
Recovery
rate
(cents on
the dollar)
United States 7 46 41 78.6 61 89.6 25.5 29 2 25 47 10.6 175 43.8 16 41 4 1.5 80.4
Germany 14 114 8 96 3 28 44.4 89 23 51 68 9 218 48.8 18 13 3 1.2 83.4
Poland 32 85 137 212 64 161 20.8 39 17 35 87 18 286 38.7 41 52 32 3 57
Slovak Republic 37 77 110 286 100 128 56.9 11 36 100 100 20 207 48.6 71 55 31 4 54.4
Bulgaria 38 49 101 110 125 130 320.4 57 23 14 89 13 454 27 57 75 38 3.3 33.2
Czech Republic 44 110 139 143 123 129 175.8 31 23 83 119 8 413 48.5 58 37 20 2.1 65.6
Romania 48 38 140 255 171 223 496.1 63 7 40 52 14 159 43.2 65 51 46 3.3 30.7
Slovenia 51 15 90 212.5 31 38 119.3 90 116 14 42 11 260 32 53 122 42 2 50.1
Hungary 54 57 103 91 162 252 111.5 52 17 110 88 11 277 48 72 20 64 2 40.2
Resolving InsolvencyPaying Taxes
Economy
Ease of
Doing
Business
Rank
Dealing with
Construction
Permits
Getting Electricity
World Bank Doing Business Report – Paying taxes, ranking
(out of 189 countries)
Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015 Report
Economy Rank Payments (number per year) Time (hours per year) Profit tax (%) Labor tax and contributions (%) Other taxes (%) Total tax rate (% profit)
Ireland 6 9 80 12.4 12.1 1.4 25.9
Denmark 12 10 130 20.3 3 2.8 26
Bulgaria 89 13 454 5 20.2 1.7 27
Switzerland 18 19 63 9.5 17.7 1.8 29
Slovenia 42 11 260 12.5 18.2 1.4 32
United Kingdom 16 8 110 20.9 11.3 1.5 33.7
Europe & Central Asia .. 20.5 234.3 10.4 21.4 3.1 34.9
Poland 87 18 286 13.1 24.7 1 38.7
Netherlands 23 9 123 21.1 17.6 0.4 39
Norway 15 4 83 24.8 15.9 0 40.7
OECD high income .. 11.8 175.4 16.4 23 1.9 41.3
Portugal 64 8 275 15.1 26.8 0.5 42.4
Romania 52 14 159 10.7 31.5 1 43.2
United States 47 10.6 175 28.2 9.7 6 43.8
Hungary 88 11 277 11.8 34.3 1.8 48
Czech Republic 119 8 413 7.6 38.4 2.6 48.5
Slovak Republic 100 20 207 8.5 39.7 0.4 48.6
Germany 68 9 218 23.3 21.2 4.3 48.8
Ineficiente foarte mari in sectorul companiilor de stat
Potential agricol ridicat...
Romania ocupa un loc important in
Uniunea Europeana din punct de vedere al
suprafetelor agricole si al ocuparii in
agricultura
Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
RO BG HU HR GR EE SK LT LV PL FI CZ ES CY
VAB in a gricultura in 2 0 1 4 (% din
tota l VAB in economie )
Medie UE =1.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
RO BG GR PT PL HR LT SL LV HU IE FI AT ES CY
Popula tia ocupata in agricultura in
2014 (% din tota l popula tie ocupata )
Sa la ria ti (% din tota l persoane ocupate in economie)
Auto-ocupare (% din tota l persoane ocupate in
economie)
Uniunea Europeana =5 .0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
FR PL DE ES RO IT UK HU BG DK CZ LT
Supra fa ta cultiva ta cu cerea le
(milioane hectare, medie 2009 -2013)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
FR ES DE PL IT RO UK HU BG SE CZ DK
Supra fa ta a rabila
(milioane hectare, medie 2009-2013)
... dar insuficient valorificat - probleme structurale in agricultura
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RO
GR SL
HR IT PL
LT PT
HU
BG ES
AT
LV NL
CH EE
SK
NO SE
FR FI
IE DE
UK
CZ
DK
Structura supra fetei a gricole utiliza ta dupa
ma rimea ex ploa ta tiei in 2 0 1 0 (% din tota l)
Peste 50 ha
20 -50 ha
10 -20 ha
5 -10 ha
0 -5 ha
Impact puternic al conditiilor climaterice asupra productiei agricole
Segmentare importanta a exploatatiilor agricole (lipsa cadastrului)
Agricultura de subzistenta detine o pondere importanta
Romania este importator net de produse agroalimentare (exclusiv cereale)
Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica , Raiffeisen RESEARCH
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
M edie 1995 -2014
Va loarea adaugata bruta in agricultura (termeni
rea li, 2003=100 )
Eficienta energetica scazuta a economiei
Eficienta energetica a economiei s-a imbunatatit, dar ramane redusa comparativ cu celelalte economii din Uniunea Europeana
Cresterea eficientei energetice a economiei permite cresterea competitivitatii acesteia, inclusiv reducerea importurilor de produse energetice
Sursa: Eurostat , Raiffeisen RESEARCH
200
300
400
500
600
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Gross inland consumption of energy divided by
GDP (kg of oil equiva lent per 1 000 EUR)
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
7 0 0
Se
rbia
Bu
lga
ria
Esto
nia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Slo
va
kia
Ro
ma
nia
Latv
iaP
ola
nd
Lith
ua
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Slo
ve
nia
Cro
ati
aFin
lan
dB
elg
ium
Cy
pru
sP
ort
ug
al
Gre
ece
Ne
the
rla
nd
sS
we
de
nM
alt
aFra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Sp
ain
Lux
em
bo
urg
No
rwa
yA
ustr
iaIt
aly
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
mD
en
ma
rkIr
ela
nd
Gross inland consumption of energy divided by
GDP (kg of oil equiva lent per 1 000 EUR) in 2013
EU a vera ge = 1 42
Population is declining and getting older
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
15
17
19
21
23
25
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
20
31
20
34
20
37
20
40
20
43
20
46
20
49
Stable popula tion of Romania
(mn. persons)
-5 .9% betw een 1990 and 2002
-8.0% betw een 2002 and 2012
-10.6% betw een 2012 and 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
20
16
20
20
20
24
20
28
20
32
20
36
20
40
20
44
20
48
Structure of popula tion, by age segments
Popula tion agged 15 -65 years (% of tota l popula tion)
Popula tion agged over 65 years (% of tota l popula tion)
Low investments in factors supporting
growth potential of the economy
Source: World Bank, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0 .0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1 .0
CY RO BG LV GR SK M T HR PL LT
Expenditure on R& D
(% of GDP)
Average 2009 -2013 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
RO EE LV LT PL CY BG LU CZ HU SK M T
Total health ex penditure
(% of GDP, avg. 2009 -2013)
- from public sources
- from priva te sources
Tota l hea lth expenditure
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
RO BG IT GR DE ES IE SK AT HR
Public spending on education
(% of GDP)
Average 2009 -2013 2013
Numarul de contributori la sistemul public de pensii care revin
la 100 de pensionari în tarile din UE
Sursa: Comisia Europeana
Evolutia numarului de pensionari
vs. numarul de salariati
Sursa: INS
Evolutia pensiei medii (lei) în perioada 2001-2014
Sursa: INS
+30.5%
Deficite nesustenabile in sistemele de asigurari sociale
Sursa: Eurostat
Deficitul bugetelor de asigurări so iale pe sii, șo aj și să ătate şi defi itul ugetar total –
ESA2010 (% din PIB)
1.45 1.34 1.49 1.07
-0.08
0.34 0.69 0.42
-1.12
-3.12
-4.46 -4.15 -3.30 -3.01 -3.28
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Defi it siste e de asigurări so iale % di PIB
Deficit bugetar (% din PIB)
Total alocari din fondul de rezerva
la dispozitia Guvernului (mld. lei)
Sursa: calcule Consiliul fiscal pe baza datelor din Hotărârile de Guvern privind
alocarea de sume din fondul de rezervă
Absorbtia fondurilor europene este slaba
A sor ția fo durilor stru turale – o parație u alte state e re UE
Total
alo ări 2007-2013
Plăți 2014
Rata
a sor ție
2014
Total alo ări 2007-
2013/locuitor
Total
plăți/lo uitor
2014
mld. euro mld. euro % euro euro
Lituania 6,78 6,35 93,70% 2.279,85 2.136,22
Estonia 3,40 3,14 92,30% 2.578,04 2.379,53
Polonia 67,19 57,31 85,30% 1.743,57 1.487,27
Letonia 4,53 3,70 81,70% 2.238,56 1.828,90
Slovenia 4,10 3,35 81,70% 1.991,94 1.627,42
Ungaria 24,92 19,01 76,30% 2.515,05 1.918,99
Bulgaria 6,67 4,37 65,50% 916,13 600,07
Repu li a Cehă 26,53 16,76 63,20% 2.522,45 1.594,19
Slovacia 11,50 6,91 60,10% 2.125,06 1.277,16
România 19,21 10,82 56,30% 959,69 540,30
Sursa: Comisia Europeana (fonduri structurale) si Eurostat (populație, 2013) Notă: Rata de absorbtie calculata de Comisia Europeană pe baza plăților intermediare și a prefinanțărilor.
Venituri bugetare foarte mici . . .
Ve iturile ugetare şi e ituri fis ale % di PIB, ESA , 4
Sursa: EUROSTAT; Veniturile fiscale includ şi contribuţiile de asigurări sociale.
Sursa: Co isia Europea ă, Eurostat
Venituri din TVA (% din PIB) – 2014
. . .ineficienta colectarii fiind evidenta
Cheltuieli mari cu investitiile publice . . .
Sursa: Eurostat
Po derea heltuielile u i estiţiile î PIB și total e ituri ugetare (medie 2006-2014)
.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Est
on
ia
Ro
mâ
nia
Leto
nia
Po
lon
ia
Bu
lga
ria
Slo
ve
nia
Croa
ția
Litu
an
ia
Repu
lia
Cehă
Su
ed
ia
Un
ga
ria
Fra
ța
Luxe
mb
urg
Ola
nd
a
Fin
lan
da
Sp
an
ia
Gre
cia
Slo
va
cia
Da
ne
ma
rca
Po
rtu
ga
lia
UE
țări
Irla
nd
a
)oa
euro
ță
ri
Cip
ru
Ma
lta
Au
stri
a
Ma
rea
Bri
tan
ie
Ita
lia
Ge
rma
nia
Be
lgia
Pondere în PIB Pondere în venituri bugetare
Calitatea infrastructurii
Sursa: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness
Report 2014-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ro
mâ
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Slo
va
cia
Po
lon
ia
Un
ga
ria
Repu
lia
Cehă
Au
stri
a
Fra
ța
Ge
rma
nia
Ola
nd
a
Scor privind calitatea infrastructurii GCI (2014-2015)
. . . dar ineficiente
VAT rate (2015)
17
18 18
19 19
20 20 20 20 20 20
21 21 21 21 21 21
22 22
23 23 23 23
24 24
25 25 25
27
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ro
ma
nia
20
17
Ma
lta
Ge
rma
ny
Cyp
rus
Bu
lga
ria
Est
on
ia
Fra
nce
Au
stri
a
Slo
vaki
a
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Be
lgiu
m
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Spa
in
Latv
ia
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ita
ly
Slo
ven
ia
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
gal
Ro
ma
nia
Fin
lan
d
De
nm
ark
Cro
ati
a
Swe
de
n
Hu
nga
ry
EU average: 21.5
Source: European Commission
Top corporate income tax (2014)
10
12.5 12.5
14 15 15
16 17
19 19 20 20 20
20.6 21 21 22 22
24.5 25 25
26 27
29.2 30 30.2
31.4 31.5
34 35
38
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bu
lga
ria
Ire
lan
d
Cyp
rus
Ro
ma
nia
20
19
Latv
ia
Lith
ua
nia
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
ven
ia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
Cro
ati
a
Fin
lan
d
Ice
lan
d
Hu
nga
ry
Est
on
ia
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Slo
vaki
a
Swe
de
n
De
nm
ark
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Au
stri
a
Gre
ece
No
rwa
y
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Spa
in
Ge
rma
ny
Ita
ly
Po
rtu
gal
Be
lgiu
m
Ma
lta
Fra
nce
EU average: 21.3
Source: KPMG
Top personal income tax (2014)
10
14 15
16 16
21 22
24 25
32
35 35
39
43.6 45
46 46.2 47.2 47.5 47.9 48
50 50 50.3 51.5 52 52
53.7
55.6 56.5 56.9
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Bu
lga
ria
Ro
ma
nia
20
19
Lith
ua
nia
Hu
nga
ry
Ro
ma
nia
Est
on
ia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Latv
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Po
lan
d
Cyp
rus
Ma
lta
No
rwa
y
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Gre
ece
Ice
lan
d
Cro
ati
a
Ge
rma
ny
Ita
ly
Ire
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Slo
ven
ia
Fra
nce
Fin
lan
d
Spa
in
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Po
rtu
gal
Swe
de
n
EU average: 37.9
Source: KPMG
Top social security contributions (2014)
14.75 15.8
19.3 20 22.3
27.34
31 32.02
34.09 34.45 34.65 34.75 36 36.25 37.2 38.2 38.42
39.71 39.9 40.49 40.98
43.96 44.95 45 47
48.07 48.6 49.96
68
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ire
lan
d
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Cyp
rus
Ma
lta
No
rwa
y
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Bu
lga
ria
Fin
lan
d
Latv
ia
Po
lan
d
Ro
ma
nia
20
17
Po
rtu
gal
Est
on
ia
Spa
in
Cro
ati
a
Slo
ven
ia
Swe
de
n
Ge
rma
ny
Au
stri
a
Ita
ly
Lith
ua
nia
Gre
ece
Ro
ma
nia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Hu
nga
ry
Be
lgiu
m
Slo
vaki
a
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Fra
nce
EU average: 36.6
Source: KPMG
Dividend tax (2014)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5
12
15 15 15 15 15 16
19 20 20
21
25 25 25 25 25 25 26
27
30 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Cyp
rus
Est
on
ia
Hu
nga
ry
Latv
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Ro
ma
nia
20
16
Bu
lga
ria
Cro
ati
a
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Lith
ua
nia
Luxe
mb
ou
rg
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Slo
ven
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Po
lan
d
Fin
lan
d
Ire
lan
d
Spa
in
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
No
rwa
y
Po
rtu
gal
Ita
ly
De
nm
ark
Fra
nce
Swe
de
n
EU average: 16.1
Source: Deloitte