rslc outlook memo
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RSLC outlook memo obtained by TheDCTRANSCRIPT
Memo: 2014 Political Outlook from the RSLC To: Republican State Leadership Committee Board of Directors
From: Matt Walter, Executive Director, Republican State Leadership Committee
Date: February 4, 2014
As Republicans look ahead to Election Day 2014, confidence at the state level is growing. With
positive momentum, a favorable and improving environment, and a comprehensive strategy to
defend our past victories, we have many opportunities to gain ground this November.
For more than 12 years, the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) has successfully
invested in and won elections across the nation. Partnering with state leaders, donors and the
grassroots, we have helped build a strong bench of current and future leaders for our Party. We
are proud that Republicans maintain overwhelming majorities across the country and we remain
committed to helping grow these numbers in 2014. Currently, Republicans control:
59 of 99 legislative chambers
29 of 45 lieutenant governors offices
28 of 50 secretaries of state offices
24 of 50 attorneys general offices
In this election cycle, the RSLC’s Future Majority Project (FMP) is expanding to recruit, train
and support 200 first-time candidates of diverse backgrounds and 300 women candidates to
ensure our elected officials reflect the full diversity of America.
Under the leadership of Chairman Bill McCollum, the RSLC kicked off 2014 with a record-
breaking finance month in January, reflecting a 600 percent growth in support for the RLGA
compared with 2013, RSSC’s most successful January ever and 39 percent growth by the RLCC,
its most successful January ever. To continue our fundraising success, we have established a
robust calendar of events, kicking-off with the RSSC Leadership meeting in Washington, D.C.
on February 12, the RLGA Policy Roundtable on March 18 and the RLCC Southern Regional
Meeting on May 21. We look forward to your attendance.
As we finalize our administrative transitions with the Republican Attorneys General Association
(RAGA), the RSLC remains supportive of their efforts to raise money to invest in targeted races
this November. As the largest national organization whose mission is to elect down-ballot, state-
level Republican officeholders, the RSLC is committed to investing in races to help regain the
Republican majority of attorneys general and aid them in their fights to defend our states against
an overreaching federal government.
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National State of Play
The state of our Republican states is strong. Republicans hold complete control of 26 state
legislatures and have split control in six states.
Republicans currently control 28 of the 50 state elections offices, some of which include
lieutenant governors. Among the states that elect a top elections official, Republicans control 23
of the 39 offices.1
Republicans celebrated a number of successes in legislative special elections last year and in
January, expanded our new majority in the Arkansas State Senate with a double-digit special
election victory in Northeast Arkansas. In one of the biggest special election victories of the
year, Jan Angel was elected to the 26th District Washington State Senate Seat in the most
expensive State Senate race in Washington history. In Virginia, Republicans maintained the 67-
seat supermajority in the House of Delegates and in California, the RSLC supported Andy Vidak
in his special election to the senate, bringing Senate Republicans within striking-distance of
eliminating the Democratic supermajority in the chamber.
Our party has also successfully elected new notable women in battleground states during 2013.
Jessie Rodriguez joined the strong Republican majority in the Wisconsin Assembly, the first
Latina Republican representative in the state’s history. Senator Angel’s victory was a key pick
up in Washington and strengthens their majority coalition. Suzanne Miles recently won a special
election victory for the Kentucky House, narrowing the Democratic majority in a district with a
3-to-1 Democratic registration advantage.
Early Signs of Republican Strength
2014 will be a strong year for Republicans, building upon the momentum that has been growing
on the state level since 2010. Already, we have seen the expansion of the new majority in the
Arkansas State Senate, but that is only the beginning.
History has shown that both the generic congressional ballot and a President’s approval rating
are reliable leading indicators for down-ballot races going into midterm elections. Within the
context of historical polling, these numbers have broad implications for statewide offices and
legislatures.
Within the last month, several public polls have shown Republicans with a one-to-two point
advantage over Democrats in the generic ballot.2 To put this into perspective, at this point in
2010, the generic ballot hovered at an approximate two-point advantage for Republicans over
Democrats. In fact, polls are hinting at a strikingly similar pattern for 2014 as was seen in 2010,
when Democrats held a narrow lead over Republicans through the end of 2009, only to be
overtaken by Republicans early in the election year, leading to historic pickups in the states.
1 http://www.nass.org/contact/sos-members/ 2 PPP, 1/12-1/26, R42, D40; Quinnipiac, 1/15-1/19, R38, D37; GWU, 1/12 – 1/16, R43, D41
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In addition, the President's approval rating currently hovers around 41 percent. History has
shown that when the President's approval rating is below 50 percent, his party suffers massive
losses on the state level. President Nixon's approval rating was 24 percent when he left office in
1974 and Democrats gained 628 seats on Election Day. In 1994, when President Clinton's
approval rating was 46 percent, Republicans won 514 seats and in 2006, when President Bush's
approval rating sunk to 39 percent, Republicans lost 322 legislative seats. 3
2014 Targets
Regionally, statewide Republican leaders in the West, especially battleground states such as
Nevada and New Mexico, have received very high marks for job approval and favorability in
recent polls. On the contrary, corresponding Democratically-controlled state legislatures
continue to receive low numbers in states such as New Mexico (30 – 45 appr/dis) and Colorado
(36-51 appr/dis).4 With popular Republican leaders in these key swing areas and poor ratings for
Democratic legislators, the potential for chamber pickups is likely for Republicans, particularly
in the Nevada Senate [11D-10R], Colorado Senate [18D-17R] and New Mexico House [37D-
33R].
The Midwest trends similarly with the reform minded leadership of statewide Republicans in key
states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, where Republican Governors are leading their
Democratic opponents heading into 2014. Voters in the bold reform states of Wisconsin and
Michigan have demonstrated confidence their states are on the right track, with a positive
outlook on the economy under Republican leadership. Similarly, recent polls have suggested
voters have a favorable view of the Republican-controlled legislatures in Ohio and Iowa, and
favor the direction of their states under Republican leadership5.
NEVADA - Democrats will be playing defense in the home of the U.S. Senate Majority
Leader, where popular Governor Brian Sandoval is positioned to be strongly reelected.
Republicans will contest open seats for Attorney General and Secretary of State – where
Governor Sandoval has endorsed Adam Laxalt and Barbara Cegavske, respectively – and
hold the Lt. Governor’s office while challenging a narrow Democratic majority in the
State Senate [11D-10R] and State Assembly [26D-15R].
COLORADO – In Colorado, where Republicans in the State Senate are now within one
seat of having a majority after historic recalls of Senate Democrats, including the Senate
President, Republicans can win both chambers of the legislature. [Senate 18D-17R,
House 37D-28R] Republicans will also defend an open seat for Attorney General being
vacated by term-limited John Suthers.
NEW MEXICO - Popular Republican Governor Susana Martinez, along with Lt.
Governor John Sanchez, are positioned to win a strong reelection with Republicans
poised to challenge for both chambers of the legislature [Senate 25D-17R, House 37D-
3 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-presidencys-political-price/ 4 “National Democrats say they’re not targeting Nevada Gov. Sandoval,” The Washington Post, 11/7/13; Common Cause, Research and Polling Inc. 12/20/13 – 1/2/14; Colorado Quinnipiac Poll, 11/19/13. 5 Iowa Quinnipiac Poll, 12/17/13; Ohio Quinnipiac Poll, 11/26/13.
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33R], reelect Secretary of State Dianna Duran and see a pick-up opportunity in the race
for attorney general.
IOWA - Governor Terry Branstad and Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, listed among the The
Washington Post’s “Rising stars,” are expected to win overwhelming reelection in the
key battleground state where the State Senate remains close [26D-24R], and while
holding the Secretary of State and State House majority.
MINNESOTA – Look for a competitive open seat for Secretary of State and a chance to
re-establish legislative Republican majorities, especially in the House.
WISCONSIN - Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, co-chair of the RSLC’s “Right Women
Right Now” program and one of the Daily Beast’s “Nine Women Remaking the Right,”
is well positioned for reelection with Governor Scott Walker and will defend a
competitive open seat for attorney general where J.B. Van Hollen is not seeking
reelection. Republicans are poised to maintain strong Republican legislative majorities in
both chambers.
MICHIGAN - Republicans hold strong legislative majorities in both chambers in
Michigan where Ruth Johnson will be reelected as Secretary of State, Bill Schuette as
Attorney General along with the Governor and Lieutenant Governor.
OHIO - Secretary of State Jon Husted was listed among The Washington Post’s “Rising
stars.” Democrats are reeling after their first choice for Lt. Governor was forced to
withdraw from the race, facing hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax liens only three
weeks after announcing his campaign. Attorney General Mike DeWine will be reelected.
State Senate Republicans marked their 30th straight year of holding the legislative
majority with a 56-1 resource advantage, while House Republicans and their strong
majority posted record fundraising totals of their own.6
FLORIDA - Republican Carlos Lopez-Cantera, the state’s first Hispanic Lieutenant
Governor, will be voted into his first full term in office, and strong majorities in both
legislative chambers will be returned. Attorney General Pam Bondi is in a competitive
race and is poised to win reelection.
WEST VIRGINIA - Republicans continue to gain momentum in a state recently
characterized as one that dislikes President Obama the most.7 With its recent filing
deadline, Republicans announced they filed challengers in every district across the state,
while 19 Republican incumbents will run unopposed.8 [Senate 24D-10R, House 53D-
47R]
6 http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/01/31/0130-gop-candidates-raising-more-money.html 7 http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/27/these-are-the-states-that-dislike-obama-the-most/ 8 http://www.statejournal.com/story/24600051/candidate-filing-produces-some-familiar-names
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PENNSYLVANIA - The popularity of President Obama continues to fall to record
lows, dropping to a record low 30 percent job approval in a new Franklin and
Marshall poll, while Republicans are well-positioned to protect a Senate majority
they have held since 1980 with only one exception, and a House majority that
recently won a special election with over 80 percent of the vote.9
Conclusion
The RSLC will wage an aggressive and well-funded effort in 2014. We are proud to be the
largest caucus of Republican state leaders in the country. We thank RLCC Chairman Speaker
Sam Smith of Pennsylvania, RLGA Chairman Tate Reeves of Mississippi, RSSC Chairman
Secretary of State Brian Kemp of Georgia and their dedicated executive committees for their
leadership and ongoing commitment to electing Republicans to state level offices across the
nation. Nicholas Confessore of th The New York Times recently called the “ … RSLC the most
successful political organization of the generation.” We thank all of you for your partnership and
with your help, we will build upon our strong legacy.
Together 2014 will be our best year yet!
9 http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-obama-reaches-new-lows-in-pa/54634