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Russia, long time on the fence

Thanks to those of you who asked how we are doing here with all the news. There is absolutely no

threat to our personal safety here in Moscow. Ukraine is not going to launch an assault on Moscow. The

news from the Eastern Ukraine is scary and disturbing, and it is all very personal to the people of Eastern

Ukraine.

Much more troubling is the slow, but steady sliding into a more authoritarian, less free society. It is hard

to say which is the cause and which is the consequencethe conflict in Ukraine (and inevitable although

sad surge in patriotism) or the shift to authoritarianism. And internal politics is always linked to

external; that much we know. I think it is an oversimplification to think that all the strings in Russia are

pulled from Kremlin, or personally by Putin. He is as much a hostage of the larger political forces as their

master. (Although the decisions to annex Crimea and to threaten Ukraine with invasion are most likely

his alone). The myriad small things to drag the country back in time come from many people. Here is

where I disagree with most Russian liberals. Their mistake is to equate authoritarianism with one

person, or with a corrupt clan of officials. In fact, Russia has seen the birth of a powerful political

movement that is both socially conservative and politically repressive; they also tend to be hawkish in

foreign policy. It is sort of a version of GOP a-la 1963. It is very unlikely Putin actually controls them,

although he uses the movement when he sees fitwhich tends to be more and more often. But the

liberal minority needs to acknowledge this political force as a legitimate, if scary political opponent, not

as a conspiracy of bureaucrats alone.

The shifts are many. For example,Duma is considering a law that requires bloggers to registerwith the

Russian equivalent of FCC. This only pertains to those bloggers who have an average of 3000 hits a day,

which I never have. So, OK, not to worry? Or, they will soon want people with dual citizenship to register

with immigration authorities, although the Russian constitution explicitly allows dual citizenship and

prohibits any restrictions of rights. Why register then? I am already not allowed to hold certain

government jobs, as long as I maintain the US citizenship. Not that I want those jobs anyway (mostly law

enforcement), but it makes me wonder. Or another example, the government is actively developingwhat looks likean official ideology.Yet the constitution explicitly forbids that. A series of acts restrict

activities of NGOs, including what amounts to total ban on foreign funding. It looks like death of

democracy by a thousand of tiny cuts.

Democratic institutions have never been strong in Russia. Most importantly, the legislative and the

judicial branches have not been truly independent since late 90-s. But it is not just that. There is nothing

here like ACLU, so no one will take all these cases to court. A few civil rights organizations tend to be

partisan, while ACLU is pointedly neutral. Russian journalism has been struggling, and state control over

media seems to be strengthening. The liberal opposition is very weak. The opposition parties are unable

to attract wider audiences, in part because the government severely limits their freedom, and in part,

because they simply do not know how. It is puzzling that they cannot engage in culture wars, or use

media effectively, or put together grass roots organizations in the regions.

Yet, this is not the entire story. The country has a significant, and sophisticated middle class. Russians

have always loved to travel, and many have seen the world. The adult population is fairly well educated,

better than the average OECD country. Within the federal and regional governments, quite a few

capable people continue to work on countrys development, despite everything. The rumor of total

corruption are exaggerated. The civil society does exist, although not in the same form as it is known in

Europe and America. It is too soon to give up on Russia; it has the potential for a normal democratic

http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/24/russia-veto-law-restrict-online-freedomhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/24/russia-veto-law-restrict-online-freedomhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/24/russia-veto-law-restrict-online-freedomhttp://www.vz.ru/politics/2014/4/22/683423.htmlhttp://www.vz.ru/politics/2014/4/22/683423.htmlhttp://www.vz.ru/politics/2014/4/22/683423.htmlhttp://www.vz.ru/politics/2014/4/22/683423.htmlhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2014/04/24/russia-veto-law-restrict-online-freedom

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development. I may be an optimist, but I dont see significant barriers to that. It is more of a fluke than

some sort of an exceptional nature of Russian society. One important reason for the current state of

affairs is that Vladimir Putin happens to be an exceptionally gifted politician, who also happens to be

very cynical about democracy. And to survive politically, he had to make the conservative turn, because

the liberal classes haverightfully - withdrawn their support. I agree with Stephen Cohen, who believes

that the US has made a number of mistakes, which contributed to Russias political backpedaling. Of

course, U.S.s own unfortunate prolonged war on terror did nothing to welcome Russia or other regional

powers into democratic fold. On a personal level, Putin and many Russians feel that the country has

been repeatedly snubbed by the West, the missile defense project is just one of many stories. The

particion of Serbia is another, and the list of grievances goes on and on. The perception may or may not

be true, but nothing has been done on symbolic level to counteract it.

What I am saying is, the present sad state of Russian democracy does not have deep economic or

political roots. It all may change.