Russia’s Compatriot Policy in the NB8 Region

February 17, 2017, BDCOL

National Defence Academy of Latvia

Center for Security and Strategic Research

Dr.sc.pol. Ieva Berzina

National Defence Academy of Latvia

Research design

Novelty – the regional aspect

Research questions How Russia is using compatriot policy as an influence tool

in the NB8 region?

What is the possibility to use it for the purpose of sovereignty violations in the region?

Research methods Document analysis – resolutions of the 2015 and 2016

regional conferences of Russia’s compatriots of the Nordic Countries and the Baltic Sea

Content analysis of the Russia’s compatriot activities in the NB8 region as they have been reported in the World Coordination Council’s website

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Russian diaspora, 2015

The UN Population division Russian MFA

India: 15.6 million

Mexico: 12.3 million

Russia: 10.6 million

Source:

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/

migration/data/estimates2/estimatesgraphs.shtml?0g

0

29.5 million

CIS: 17 million

The rest: 12.5 million

Latvia: 750 000

Source: The concept «Russian School Abroad»

http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/50643

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Who are Russia’s compatriots abroad?

Federal Law of the Russian Federation «On State Policy of the Russian Federation in relation to Compatriots Living Abroad», 1999:

Russian citizens

Russian ethnic minority

Persons living in the states of the former SU

Immigrants from the states of the former SU

Russian citizneship + self-identification

Latvia’s 750 000 Russia’s compatriots (2011 census):

Russian ethnic minority: 26.9 % (~ 557 000)

Russian language used in family: 37.2 % (~ 770 000) «Non-citizens»: 14.2 % (~295 000); 12 % (2015, Latvian Ministry of

Foreign Affairs)

Russian citizens: 34 091 (2011 census); 53 333 (2016, the Russian Embassy)

Feel belonging to Russia: 12 % (~ 218 000)

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Russia’s compatriots in the NB8

Divided societies

Latvia: 37.2 %

Estonia: 29.6 %

Ethnic minority

Lithuania: 5.8 %

Finland: 1.3 %

Norway, Iceland,

Sweden, Denmark:

< 1% Photo source: http://russkiymir.ru/en/news/218518/

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Coordination of Russia’s compatriot

activities

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Regional Coordination Councils

http://vksrs.com/koordinatsionnye-

sovety/map/?TYPE=REGION&AUTHOR=%D0%95%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0+%D0%AF%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B8

%D0%BD%D0%B0

The Baltic States included in the group «Northen Europe and the Baltic Sea

countries», not the «Near Abroad».

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Why regional coordination?

The problems of the compatriots in the Baltic States in the field of human rights, statelessness and manifestations of neo-Nazism are specific

But there are also common topics such as the preservation of the Russian language, work of Russian schools, the protection of compatriots’ rights, social issues and other

The regional format of Russia’s compatriot's work allows for the exchange of experiences and the promotion of the most interesting projects

Tatyana Dale (Norway), the chairman of the Regional Coordination Council

of the Northen Europe and the Baltic Sea countries:

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Compatriots’ activities in the NB8, 2016

Source: World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots Living Abroad, vksrs.com

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Areas of compatriots’ activities in the

NB8, 2016

Source: World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots Living Abroad, vksrs.com

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Conclusions

The regional approach provides a better understanding of how

Russia organize its compatriots’ activities on a global scale.

There is a gap between the scope of Russia’s compatriot

policy as it is officially declared and organized with its actual

effectiveness.

The most intense area of Russia’s compatriot activities in the

NB8 region is the promotion of Russia’s historic narratives

which mainly are related to the victory of the Soviet Union in the

World War II.

The most vulnerable in terms of the application of the „Russia’s

compatriots rights violation” narrative are Estonia and Latvia, but

the possibility that Russia might use this as a basis for

sovereignty violation is determined by its strategic interests

rather than by the discrimination of Russia’s compatriots because

it is a tool, not a strategic goal.

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Implications for the NB8 governments

Fight for hearts and minds rather than fight against Russia must be on the agenda, because the strength of Russia in current information warfare is determined by the fact that it purposefully and strongly promotes its vision of the world within Russia and outside its borders.

The NB8 governments must promote their positive agenda and values in a long-term, massive and easy to perceive manner as it is done by Russia.

The narratives used must be appealing to their societies and specific target audiences within them (including Russia’s compatriots). The campaigns need to communicate what do we stand for, they must unite and inspire people.

Thank you!