s h kelkar & co. - stock broking companies, share brokers · pdf file ·...

15
October 28, 2015 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report S H Kelkar & Co. The perfumer arrives IPO Note Nishna Biyani [email protected] +91-22-66322239 Keyur Pandya [email protected] +91-22-66322247 Rating Subscribe Price Band Rs173-Rs180 IPO Grading NA (Grade 5/5 indicates strong fundamentals and grade 1/5 indicates poor fundamentals) IPO Fact Sheet Opening Date October 28, 2015 Closing Date October 30, 2015 BRLMs JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Capital Co Ltd Issue Size Rs5.1bn Fresh Issue Rs2.1bn Offer for Sale (Blackstone/Promoters) Rs 3bn Objects of the Issue Repayment/Pre-payment of debt Rs 1.3bn Repayment/Pre-payment of debt for K.V.Archem Pvt Ltd (100% subsidiary) Rs 0.3bn General Corporate Purpose Rs 0.5bn Issue Details Pre-issue equity (m shares) 133.0 Post-issue equity (m shares)* 144.6 Post-issue Market Cap (Rs bn)* 26.0 Share Holding (%) Pre-IssuePost-Issue* Promoters 64.2 56.7 Public & Others 35.8 43.3 *Equity issuance calculated on higher band price SH Kelkar & Co is India’s oldest and most renowned manufacturer and supplier of Fragrance & Flavours (F&F). The company commands a market share of ~20% in the fragrance industry (~size Rs23bn growing @10%) catering to more than 3700 customers across India. The fact that they are at a relative low market share of ~2% in the flavours industry (~size Rs18.7bn growing @10%) where it caters to more than 400 customers offers higher scope for growth. In addition, favourable industry dynamics and low capacity utilization of less than 40% bodes well for healthy growth rates for SH Kelkar over the next few years. The IPO valuation of Rs26bn may look expensive on FY15 valuations, which was as a result of one off aberration due to spike in prices of certain raw materials in FY15. With a strong growth and improving capacity utilisations over the next few years, we expect to see the margins to increase and earnings grow steadily, making the stock an attractive buy in the IPO. Considering factors such as quality management, high business entry barriers, no Indian listed play in the F&F segment, limited equity offering and strong co-relation with Indian consumer segment, we feel SH Kelkar is a portfolio stock and recommend “Subscribe” for the long term. Key Highlights Large expansion over, time for utilization to pick-up: SH Kelkar has added assets worth Rs2.15bn over FY11-FY15 period funded by internal accruals and Equity. This expansion has set the stage for growth in the next five years. Strong business execution and experienced management: SH Kelkar’s financial performance has been robust, with revenue and earnings CAGR of 16.2% and 19.6%, respectively, over FY11-15 period. Further, the management team is very experienced, forward looking and is actively involved in day-to-day functions. Debt free company post IPO, significant interest cost saving to accrue: Major parts of IPO proceeds (Rs2.1bn) are going to be utilized in retiring debt. This shall save finance cost of almost Rs190m a year. Presence of strong in-house R&D team: SH Kelkar has a dedicated team of 18 scientists operating at its facilities in Mumbai and Netherlands. This team has developed 12 molecules over the past three years. It also has a team of 12 perfumers and 2 flavourists which helped it develop 502 new F&F compounds in FY15. Key financials (Y/e March) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Revenues (Rs m) 5,700 6,662 7,614 8,370 Growth (%) 24.0 16.9 14.3 9.9 EBITDA (Rs m) 1,044 1,180 1,370 1,193 PAT (Rs m) 412 616 791 644 Growth (%) 30.8 49.5 28.5 (18.6) EPS (Rs)* 3.1 4.6 6.0 4.8 Profitability & Valuation FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 17.7 18.0 14.3 RoE (%) 13.7 15.4 17.5 13.0 RoCE (%) 11.3 11.8 13.8 8.6 PE (x) 58.1 38.9 30.2 37.2 P / BV (x) 6.4 5.6 5.0 4.7 Source: Company Data; PL Research * Historic EPS calculated on 133m shares outstanding

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Page 1: S H Kelkar & Co. - Stock Broking Companies, Share Brokers · PDF file · 2015-10-28October 28, 2015 4 S H Kelkar & Co. Investment Rationale Strong play on the Fragrance industry in

October 28, 2015

Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

S H Kelkar & Co.

The perfumer arrives

IPO

No

te

Nishna Biyani [email protected] +91-22-66322239

Keyur Pandya [email protected] +91-22-66322247

Rating Subscribe

Price Band Rs173-Rs180

IPO Grading NA

(Grade 5/5 indicates strong fundamentals and

grade 1/5 indicates poor fundamentals)

IPO Fact Sheet

Opening Date October 28, 2015

Closing Date October 30, 2015

BRLMs JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd,

Kotak Mahindra Capital Co Ltd

Issue Size Rs5.1bn

Fresh Issue Rs2.1bn

Offer for Sale (Blackstone/Promoters) Rs 3bn

Objects of the Issue

Repayment/Pre-payment of debt Rs 1.3bn

Repayment/Pre-payment of debt for K.V.Archem Pvt Ltd (100% subsidiary) Rs 0.3bn

General Corporate Purpose Rs 0.5bn

Issue Details Pre-issue equity (m shares) 133.0

Post-issue equity (m shares)* 144.6

Post-issue Market Cap (Rs bn)* 26.0

Share Holding (%) Pre-IssuePost-Issue*

Promoters 64.2 56.7

Public & Others 35.8 43.3

*Equity issuance calculated on higher band price

SH Kelkar & Co is India’s oldest and most renowned manufacturer and supplier of Fragrance & Flavours (F&F). The company commands a market share of ~20% in the fragrance industry (~size Rs23bn growing @10%) catering to more than 3700 customers across India. The fact that they are at a relative low market share of ~2% in the flavours industry (~size Rs18.7bn growing @10%) where it caters to more than 400 customers offers higher scope for growth. In addition, favourable industry dynamics and low capacity utilization of less than 40% bodes well for healthy growth rates for SH Kelkar over the next few years. The IPO valuation of Rs26bn may look expensive on FY15 valuations, which was as a result of one off aberration due to spike in prices of certain raw materials in FY15. With a strong growth and improving capacity utilisations over the next few years, we expect to see the margins to increase and earnings grow steadily, making the stock an attractive buy in the IPO. Considering factors such as quality management, high business entry barriers, no Indian listed play in the F&F segment, limited equity offering and strong co-relation with Indian consumer segment, we feel SH Kelkar is a portfolio stock and recommend “Subscribe” for the long term.

Key Highlights

Large expansion over, time for utilization to pick-up: SH Kelkar has added assets worth Rs2.15bn over FY11-FY15 period funded by internal accruals and Equity. This expansion has set the stage for growth in the next five years.

Strong business execution and experienced management: SH Kelkar’s financial performance has been robust, with revenue and earnings CAGR of 16.2% and 19.6%, respectively, over FY11-15 period. Further, the management team is very experienced, forward looking and is actively involved in day-to-day functions.

Debt free company post IPO, significant interest cost saving to accrue: Major parts of IPO proceeds (Rs2.1bn) are going to be utilized in retiring debt. This shall save finance cost of almost Rs190m a year.

Presence of strong in-house R&D team: SH Kelkar has a dedicated team of 18 scientists operating at its facilities in Mumbai and Netherlands. This team has developed 12 molecules over the past three years. It also has a team of 12 perfumers and 2 flavourists which helped it develop 502 new F&F compounds in FY15.

Key financials (Y/e March) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Revenues (Rs m) 5,700 6,662 7,614 8,370

Growth (%) 24.0 16.9 14.3 9.9

EBITDA (Rs m) 1,044 1,180 1,370 1,193

PAT (Rs m) 412 616 791 644

Growth (%) 30.8 49.5 28.5 (18.6)

EPS (Rs)* 3.1 4.6 6.0 4.8

Profitability & Valuation FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 17.7 18.0 14.3

RoE (%) 13.7 15.4 17.5 13.0

RoCE (%) 11.3 11.8 13.8 8.6

PE (x) 58.1 38.9 30.2 37.2

P / BV (x) 6.4 5.6 5.0 4.7

Source: Company Data; PL Research * Historic EPS calculated on 133m shares outstanding

Page 2: S H Kelkar & Co. - Stock Broking Companies, Share Brokers · PDF file · 2015-10-28October 28, 2015 4 S H Kelkar & Co. Investment Rationale Strong play on the Fragrance industry in

October 28, 2015 2

S H Kelkar & Co.

Exhibit 1: Issue details

Issue Period Opening date: 28th October 2015; Closing date: 30th October 2015

Exchange Listing on both NSE and BSE

Issuer S H Kelkar and Company Ltd

Offer Type Initial Public Offering

Offer Size including OFS Total 28.2 Million Equity Shares

Face Value Rs.10/-

Price Band Rs173 -180/ share

Bid Lot 80 equity shares and in multiples thereof

Issue Split (No. of shares)

QIB Portion: 50% of the issue

Non-Institutional portion: Not less than 15% of the issue

Retail Portion: Not less than 35% of the issue

Current Shareholding

Pre-Offer Post-Offer*

Promoters 64.2% 56.7%

Others 35.8 % 43.3%

Book Running Lead manager

JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Ltd

Source: RHP *Equity issuance calculated on higher price band

Exhibit 2: Issue is priced between Rs25.1bn to Rs26.0bn MCap

Existing Outstanding Equity Shares (M) 133.0 133.0

Amount proposed to be raised (Rs M) 2100 2100

Price Band (Rs) 173 180

Fresh Issue (M) 12.1 11.7

Post Issue Shares Outstanding (M) 145.1 144.6

Post Issue Mcap band (Rs M) 25,101 26,032

Source: RHP

Exhibit 3: Utilization of Net Proceeds (Rs m)

Utilization of Net Proceeds Total Estimated Utilization

FY16E FY17E FY18E

Debt Repayment 1,580 1,360 100 100

General corporate purposes 520 520

Total 2,100 1,880 100 100

Source: RHP

Page 3: S H Kelkar & Co. - Stock Broking Companies, Share Brokers · PDF file · 2015-10-28October 28, 2015 4 S H Kelkar & Co. Investment Rationale Strong play on the Fragrance industry in

October 28, 2015 3

S H Kelkar & Co.

Company Background

Incorporated in the year 1922, SH Kelkar & Co is India’s oldest manufacturer and

supplier of Fragrance & Flavours (F&F). The company also exports its fragrances and

runs three manufacturing plants in India and one in the Netherlands. It commands a

market share of 20% in the fragrance industry catering to more than 3700 customers

across India. Its major clientele includes the likes of Godrej Consumer, ITC, GSK, HUL

and Vini. It ventured into flavours segment in 1992, leveraging its long relationship

with FMCG giants. Today, they sell flavours to dairy, bakery producers, beverages

and pharma companies such as Coca Cola, Britannia, Amul, Vicco and Vadilal. The

company also own brands like Cobra and Keva which is distributed through hundreds

of traders and re-sellers across India. Exports account for more than 40% of turnover

which is shipped across to 52 countries.

They have four manufacturing facilities, three of which are located in India and one

in The Netherlands, with a total installed manufacturing capacity of over 19,819 tons

annually.

Exhibit 5: Manufacturing facilities & installed capacities

Vapi, Gujarat Mumbai,

Maharashtra Raigad,

Maharashtra Barneveld, The Netherlands

Size Area (Acres) 18 11 37 One manufacturing facility with a musk and a multi-purpose unit Total capacity of 2 units : 1650 TPA Capacity utilisation : 77.2%

Fragrance (TPA) 2,064 4,599 10,342

Capacity Utilisation 35.8% 40.5% 44.2%

Flavours (TPA) - - 1164

Capacity Utilisation - - 34.0%

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Promoter and Management Bandwidth

Mr Ramesh Vinayak Vaze, MD – Mr Ramesh has been a veteran in the F&F industry

with more than four decades of experience He holds a degree of Bachelor's in

Science from University of Mumbai. He was appointed Managing Director of the

Company in August 2010.

Mr. Kedar Vaze, CEO - Mr. Kedar, a third generation founder-family member, has

been associated with Keva since 1st October 1996. He took over the role of Group

CEO in 2014, prior to which he worked within the Group in different roles of Chief

Technology Officer (CTO) and Group COO. In his capacity as COO, he managed all the

three businesses – Fragrance, Flavours & Aroma Ingredients. Being a proficient

Perfumer himself, Kedar Vaze has a number of F&F patents in his name. He has done

M.Sc., (Chemistry) from IIT Mumbai and subsequently attended Global Managers

Program at Stanford University, USA.

Exhibit 4: About the company

Employees 758

Products 9700+

Customers 4100+

Perfumers 12

Flavourists 2

Scientists 18

Creation & Development Centre

5

Manufacturing Locations 4

Credit rating CRISIL A+

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Page 4: S H Kelkar & Co. - Stock Broking Companies, Share Brokers · PDF file · 2015-10-28October 28, 2015 4 S H Kelkar & Co. Investment Rationale Strong play on the Fragrance industry in

October 28, 2015 4

S H Kelkar & Co.

Investment Rationale

Strong play on the Fragrance industry in India

SH Kelkar is the largest manufacturer and supplier of fragrance products in India with

a market share of 20%. Established long-term market relationships and

comprehensive product portfolio, aids well for a long-term growth visibility.

SH Kelkar is in a bright spot considering experienced management, high entry

barriers and strong co-relation with Indian consumer growth.

Exhibit 6: SH Kelkar is amongst the top 3 players in the fragrance Industry in India

Givaudan26%

Firmenich21.20%

SH Kelkar

20.50%

Symrise10%

IFF7%

Goldfield

3%

Others

12%

Market share of Indian Fragrance Industry

Source: Company Data; PL Research

Favorable Industry dynamics and growth ready

The Indian F&F industry is estimated at ~Rs42bn in FY15. In the last four years, the

Indian fragrance and flavours markets have grown at 10.1% and 10.4%, respectively,

Increasing population, rising literacy levels, higher disposable income, changing

lifestyles etc. are the major drivers for growth of the F&F Industry.

SH Kelkar enjoys extensive library of product formulations created over the past nine

decades. Further, it enjoys long standing relationships with both FMCG companies

and key RM suppliers. With significant investments made in expanding capacities

over the past five years, we believe that SH Kelkar has a huge room for growth.

Urbanization, rising disposable incomes

and rise of modern retail offers favourable

business dynamics over the long term

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October 28, 2015 5

S H Kelkar & Co.

Diverse customer base with negligible customer concentration

SH Kelkar has more than 4100 customers which include global corporate, domestic

FMCG giants and trade partners. This diverse clientele has ensured low customer

concentration with the largest customer contributing 2.9% of sales for FY15. Further,

SH Kelkar is full service supplier of 9700 F&F products and ingredients with a large

library of product formulations.

Exhibit 7: Most Indian brands use SH Kelkar’s products across F&F

Fragrance

Flavours Godrej Wipro Marico ITC

Coca-Cola ELan Vadilal DS Group

Vini Dabur HUL P&G

Abbott Amul Mapro Cantaur

J&J Emami Heinz TTK Healthcare

Parle Himalaya Dukes Concept

Nirma Oriflame RB VICCO

Britannia GSK Dinshaw's Sanofi

Himalaya Jyothy Bajaj Corp Reliance

Cream Bell MTR VICCO WeikFiELD

Source: Company data, PL research

Strong Entry Barriers limit competition

F&F Industry has high stringent regulatory environment with strict quality standards

for large players and requires high customer acquisition time (given that most

relationships between the suppliers and FMCG giants are long standing and are

difficult to penetrate). Thus, established players enjoy a large market share with the

top five accounting for over 70% of the business, dominated by four multinationals

and SH Kelkar.

Long term relationships with several

customers spanning over 15 years

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October 28, 2015 6

S H Kelkar & Co.

Industry Dynamics

The Indian F&F industry (~Rs42bn market in FY15) includes more than 1,000

companies, ranging from MNCs, large Indian industrial houses to small-scale units

and regional manufacturers. The top five players in India controls almost 70% of the

Indian F&F market according to a Neilson market study on F&F. These MNCs have a

significant presence in India with strong established customer relationships with

FMCG companies.

Exhibit 8: Global F&F market is valued at US$26bn growing @4.8%

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

2013 2014 2015E 2016E

(US$

bn

)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Exhibit 9: Indian F&F market is valued at Rs42bn growing @9.5 %

0

10

20

30

40

50

2013 2014 2015E 2016E

(Rs

m)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Exhibit 10: Split of Indian F&F market

15.7 16.9 18.8 20.9

12.7 14.015.5

17.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2011 2012 2013 2014

(Rs

bn)

Fragrance Mkt Size (Including blend) Flavour Mkt Size

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Exhibit 11: F&F Industry dominated by organized players (77% share)

27.8 29.3 32.0 35.5

6.58.8

9.710.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2013 2014 2015E 2016E

(Rs

m)

Organised Unorganised

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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October 28, 2015 7

S H Kelkar & Co.

Business Description

Their business primarily consists of two segments, i.e. fragrance and flavour.

Fragrance

SH Kelkar have a diverse portfolio of over 8,800 fragrance products, including

branded small packs and fragrance ingredients. Their products are essentially

fragrance compounds, which are complex fragrance compositions created by a

specialized team of perfumers by combining aromatic raw materials such as aroma

chemicals and essential oils. Their fragrance portfolio consists of products in the

following categories:

Personal Wash – Toilet soaps, Shower gels and Hand wash

Fabric Care – Detergent and Fabric softeners

Skin and Hair Care – Creams, Shampoos and Hair oils

Fine Fragrances – Deodorants and Perfumes

Home Care Products – Air care, Floor cleaners & Toilet cleaners

Fragrance and Flavour Blends – used by clients to make their products

Approximately 350 of their fragrance products manufactured at their Raigad plant

are sold to over 1,000 customers, including traders, resellers and small and medium

enterprises engaged in the manufacturing of soap, detergents and other home care

products in the smaller towns and villages of India. Their products are sold in smaller

quantities ranging from 25 grams to 500 grams each.

Flavours

SH Kelkar has a diverse portfolio of over 1100 flavour products which is used by

more than 400 customers, including manufacturers of beverages, confectionery,

dairy products, pharmaceuticals, oral hygiene products etc. Flavour products are

manufactured in liquid or encapsulated form and are categorized as natural, nature

identical or artificial flavours. Their flavour portfolio consists of:

Baked Goods – Biscuits, cookies and cakes

Dairy – Ice-cream, milk shakes, yoghurt and flavoured milk

Beverages – Tea, Juices, powdered drinks and Soda

Pharmaceuticals – syrups, powders, etc

SK Kelkar produced approximately 7,170

tons of fragrance and 434 tons of flavour in

the financial year 2015

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October 28, 2015 8

S H Kelkar & Co.

Exhibit 12: Major FMCG products which use SH Kelkar’s products

Source: Company website, PL Research (For illustrative purpose only)

Established long term partnerships with key RM suppliers

SH Kelkar has an efficient mix of raw material sourcing, with 43% catered by

international suppliers. It has established relationships with some of the key

suppliers for over two decades. Top 10 suppliers accounted for ~35% of its RM

requirements for FY15. It has also implemented SAP ERP to manage operations for

planning, forecasting and monitoring replenishment system.

Exhibit 13: RM sourcing managed by efficient blend of outsourcing and captive production

Source: Company data, PL Research

Library of 1200+ Raw Material

International Suppliers: 43%

Sourcing from Indonesia, Germany,

Brazil, China, USA

Domestic

Suppliers: 57%

262 Indian

Suppliers

In House 250 fragrance ingredients

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October 28, 2015 9

S H Kelkar & Co.

Financial Highlights

SH Kelkar revenues are growing @ 16% for the past four years

SH Kelkar’s financial performance has been robust with revenue and earnings CAGR

of 16.2% and 19.6%, respectively, over FY11-15 period. Cost of Material consumed

increased in FY15 primarily due to increase in volumes of RM and increase in average

price of certain natural RM resulting in margin pressure and dip in profitability over

FY14. However, situation is back to normal in Q1FY16 with pick-up in top-line and

margins back to steady state of 17%.

Exhibit 14: Steady sales growth over FY11-FY15 period

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

Q1F

Y16

Sales (Rs m) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source:Company data, PL Research

Exhibit 15: Average PAT margins above 9% for past 3 years

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

Q1

FY1

6

PAT (Rs m) PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company data, PL Research

Debt-free company post IPO, significant interest cost saving to accrue

Major parts of IPO proceeds (Rs2.1bn) are going to be utilized in retiring debt. This

shall save finance cost of almost Rs190m a year. At the end of Q1FY16, net debt

outstanding was Rs1.36bn.

Exhibit 16: Average finance cost of Rs190m for past five years

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Debt (Rs m) Finance Cost (Rs m) (RHS)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Revenue growth of 16% is split between

price hike (4-5%), Volume growth of old

portfolio (7-8%) and 3-4% addition of new

products

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October 28, 2015 10

S H Kelkar & Co.

No significant capex required for growing 15% for the next five years

SH Kelkar has just completed its significant capex program over FY10-FY15 period incurring Rs2.15bn. With capacity utilizations hovering sub 40%, company does not

require any major capex for the next 5-7 years, barring certain product specific marginal capex. A debt-free balance sheet post issue and absence of capex in the medium term will result in generation of free cash flow, resulting in possibility of

higher dividend payout. This, in turn, is expected to result in an improvement in return ratios over the long run.

Exhibit 17: Major capex cycle behind aids strong cash generation over next five years

378

216

364

514

321

57

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Q1FY16

(Rs

m)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Working capital cycle looks stretched due to high RM inventories

Since SH Kelkar has product formulation library in excess of 9700, minimum amount of inventory of basic RM (1200+) needs to be maintained at all times. Due to the

business characteristics, there is no certainty with which a product demand can be forecasted. This apparently reflects as high working capital requirement for the business.

Exhibit 18: Average Inventory days of 136 for past 4 years

0

50

100

150

200

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Inventory (Rs m) Inventory Days (RHS)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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October 28, 2015 11

S H Kelkar & Co.

Valuations and View

SH Kelkar & Co is India’s oldest and most renowned manufacturer and supplier of

Fragrance & Flavours (F&F). The company commands a market share of ~20% in the

fragrance industry (~size Rs23bn growing @10%) catering to more than 3700

customers across India. The fact that they are at a relative low market share of ~2%

in the flavours industry (~size Rs18.7bn growing @10%) where it caters to more than

400 customers offers higher scope for growth. In addition, favourable industry

dynamics and low capacity utilization of less than 40% bodes well for healthy growth

rates for SH Kelkar over the next few years. The IPO valuation of Rs26bn may look

expensive on FY15 valuations, which was as a result of one off aberration due to

spike in prices of certain raw materials in FY15. With a strong growth and improving

capacity utilisations over the next few years, we expect to see the margins to

increase and earnings grow steadily, making the stock an attractive buy in the IPO.

Considering factors such as quality management, high business entry barriers, no

Indian listed play in the F&F segment, limited equity offering and strong co-relation

with Indian consumer segment, we feel SH Kelkar is a portfolio stock and

recommend “Subscribe” for the long term.

Exhibit 19: Comparative Valuation

Currency Mcap

(bn)

Sales (m) PE Ratio (x) EV/Sales CY16E

(x)

RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) CY14-CY16E CAGR (%)

CY14 CY15E CY16E CY14 CY15E CY16E CY14 CY15E CY16E CY14 CY15E CY16E Sales EBITDA PAT

Givaudan CHF 14.9 4,404 4,359 4,538 28 23 21 3.5 16.5 18.3 19.1 15.1 15.0 14.5 2% 2% 12%

IFF USD 9.2 3,089 3,071 3,240 22 21 20 3.0 27.8 27.0 25.4 14.2 13.8 13.0 2% 5% 5%

Symrise EUR 7.4 2,120 2,619 2,867 40 26 24 3.0 15.6 19.0 19.1 20.0 14.8 13.7 16% 21% 22%

Source: Bloomberg, PL Research

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October 28, 2015 12

S H Kelkar & Co.

Financials

Exhibit 20: Income Statement (Rs m)

Y/e March 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Revenue 5,700 6,662 7,614 8,370

Operating Expenses 2,988 3,510 3,991 4,656

Gross Profit 2,712 3,152 3,622 3,714

Employee Cost 685 890 1,029 1,150

Other Expenses 983 1,082 1,222 1,371

EBITDA 1,044 1,180 1,370 1,193

Depr. & Amortization 173 173 188 293

Net Interest 277 217 175 186

Other Income 40 15 78 233

Profit before Tax 633 782 1,085 947

Total Tax 189 243 294 304

Profit after Tax 444 540 791 644

Ex-Od items / Min. Int./Profit in associates (32) 76 0 0

Adj. PAT 412 616 791 644

Adj. EPS* (Rs.) 3.1 4.6 6.0 4.8

Source: Company Data, PL Research * Historic EPS calculated on 133m shares outstanding

Exhibit 21: Balance Sheet (Rs m)

Y/e March 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shareholders’ Funds 3,762 4,244 4,810 5,103

Total Debt 2,138 1,331 1,837 2,136

Other Liabilities 115 671 154 151

Current Liabilities:

Trade Payables 483 737 879 1,016

Other Current Liabilities 548 733 739 738

Short Term Provisions 76 81 249 296

Total Liabilities 7,122 7,797 8,668 9,440

Net Fixed Assets 2,339 2,534 3,016 2,846

Investments 338 414 2 0

Other Assets 272 294 367 437

Current Assets:

Inventories 2,316 2,253 2,788 3,175

Trade receivables 1,309 1,721 1,794 1,947

Cash and cash equivalents 237 331 415 759

Short-term loans & advances 305 244 283 233

Other Current Assets 6 5 4 42

Total Assets 7,122 7,797 8,668 9,440

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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S H Kelkar & Co.

Exhibit 22: Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e March 2012 2013 2014 2015

C/F from Operations 733 1,031 321 617

C/F from Investing (378) (333) (637) (173)

C/F from Financing (573) (607) 360 (75)

Inc. / Dec. in Cash (218) 91 43 369

Opening Cash 409 194 286 349

Closing Cash 194 286 349 718

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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Annexure

Exhibit 23: Management team have an average experience in excess of two decades

Poul Spierings

Executive VP- Aroma Ingredients Exp of 27+ years

Makarand Patwardhan Vp - Operations & SCM

Exp of 29+ years Kedar Ramesh Vaze

Whole Time Director & Group CEO Exp of 19+ years

Pramod Devray Executive VP- Fragrance India

Exp of 38+ years

Indrajit Chatterjee Group CHRO

Exp of 20+ years

Tapas Majumdar Executive VP & CFO

Exp of 32+ years

Mohan Sapre Senior VP- International Fragrance

Exp of 30+ years

Anurag Yadava General Manager - Flavours

Exp of 22+ years

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India

Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209

Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature

43.1% 44.1%

12.7%

0.0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell

% o

f To

tal C

ove

rage

BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-months

Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month

Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1-month

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We/I, Mr. Nishna Biyani (BE, MBA-Finance), Mr. Keyur Pandya (Mcom, MBA-Finance), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report

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