salt lake city crop biomass summit july 2007 mater ltd 1catherine m. mater crop and “levelized”...

Mater Ltd

1Salt Lake City CROP Biomass Summit

Catherine M. MaterJuly 2007

CROP and “Levelized” Supply:

A National Pilot Project for

Sustainable Woody Biomass Removal from Public Forestlands

Presented byCatherine M. Mater

President—Mater EngineeringSenior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for Conservation

Corvallis, Oregon; Washington, DCTel: 541-753-7335 Fx: 541-752-2952

E-mail: [email protected]

Mater Ltd



First - Thank-you all!

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Main political pressures (public perspective):

• Reduction of catastrophic wildfires – especially around urban interface areas

• Urgent focus on new renewable energy sources

• Early front-runner `silver bullet’ solutions on wind, ethanol … just about everything but woody biomass.

. . . and yet . . .

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New energy goals cannot be achieved without woody biomass in the feedstock mix . . .

Unintended impacts already being felt as a result of push toward uni-feedstock use (corn for ethanol)

. . . not enough other feedstocks to satisfy demand

. . . higher food prices

. . . increased hunger in the poor

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Wildfires, fuel load, and carbon emissions . . . No small matter!

• 200,000 high risk acres could emit 16 million tons of CO2

• Equivalent to 30-40 tons of dry biomass going up in smoke per acre!

. . . most starting well outside urban interface areas

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• . . . the projections for catastrophic wildfires have increased and fighting these fires is projected to consume over 35% of the entire USFS federal

• . . . President Bush proposed that the nation produce 35 billion gallons a year of biofuels by 2017. The Energy Policy Act requires that 7.5 billion gallons/year of biofuels be produced by 2012

• . . . biotechnology companies in the US that once focused on aspects of the drug discovery process have switched course and are now immersed in biofuels, which are expected to generate revenue in a much shorter time frame than drugs

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Transparency of information:

What? (landscape scale)

How much?

Where removed?

When?

How levelized?

Different stakeholders; same questionsEnergy Investor

Enviros

Sustainability:

Focus on small diameter

Coordination at landscape scale

NEPA

Road accessibility

Credibility:

Performance as planned

Monitor impacts

Update info

Mater Ltd



109.43

3005.55

4239.3

1888.58

0 53.75

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ashley NF: Sawtimber Sold(Total 6-yr = 9.2 mmbf)

1699.5

5134.06

6484.59

4233.92

2049.61 2302.33

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volume Sold in Ashley NF 2000-2005(Total 6-yr. = 21.9 mmbf)

mbf

And woody biomass supply?

An unreliable proposition at best . . .

Erratic supply offering = high risk; low credibility

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And perhaps not so surprising . . .

. . . coupled with biomass-to-energy projects typically not economically viable without value-added step to make bottom line work.

• No coordination between NF systems in regions

• No coordination between USFS ranger districts

• No coordination with other agencies in region with harvest activity (BLM, state, DOT, etc)

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Coordinated Resource Offering Protocol

Enter CROP!

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What we expect from CROP

• Performance in removal vs performance in inventory

• Decreased cost/acre to remove through increased private investment

• Decreased litigation and appeals

• Acceleration of restoration of forest ecosystems

• Increased Congressional support

• Federal appropriations shift toward rewarding performance in small diameter removal

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What we do not expect from CROP

• A static process and protocol . . . changes (improvements, adaptions) are essential!

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What we asked for:

• Volume (by mmbf, green tons, ccf, etc.)

• Diameter sizes <4” 4”-7” 7”-9” 9”-12” >12”

• Species (all species evaluated for resource flow)

• Harvest “type”: fuel load reduction, timber sale, etc.

• Location of resource offering_________________________

• NEPA Phase

• Road accessibility} USFS Pilots

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The CROP projects started in 2006 . . .

National Strategy Plan for Woody Biomass Utilization with USDA, DOI, DOE as partners. Plan initiates ten CROP pilots across the US that encompass over 25 million acres of public forestland.

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SC CROP

2 circles

SC CROP

2 circles

2006 - 2007 National CROP Pilots

36 National Forests

105 Ranger Districts

41 BLM Districts

15 states

30 million acres of public lands

Just started

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S. Oregon CROP :

Center Point: Lakeview100-mi. radius

Tahoe Region CROP :

Center Point: Nevada City, CA100-mi. radius

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N. Utah CROP :

Center Point: Manila100-mi. radius

S. Utah CROP:

Center Point: Panguitch 125-mi. (N & S)

100-mi. (E & W)

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Colorado CROP :

Center Point: Kremmling100-mile radius

New Mexico CROP:

Center Point: Santa Fe 100-mi. radius

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South Carolina 2 CROP:

Center Point: Saluda 50-mi. radius

South Carolina 1 CROP:

Center Point: Foreston 50-mi. radius

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Vermont New Hampshire

Vermont/ New Hampshire CROP :

Center Point: Hanover, NH75-mi. radius

Mississippi CROP :

Center Point: Mt. Olive100-miles N/S; 60 miles E/W

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Year Total Biomass

(1,179,924.7 gT)

% of 5-yr volume

2006 285,125 24%

2007 220,737 19%

2008 270,861 23%

2009 215,030 18%

2010 188,170 16%

Southern Oregon CROP Overall:

Total Small Log

(284.317 mmbf)

% of 5-yr volume

64.29 23%

57.27 20%

58.48 20%

54.33 19%

49.93 18%

Total Large Log

(283.949 mmbf)

% of 5-yr volume

66.64 23%

55.62 20%

55.78 20%

59.22 21%

46.69 16%

Large Logs = 35%(>12” dbh)

Small Logs = 35%(>7” – 12” dbh)

Biomass = 30%(up to 7” dbh)

65% of biomass offering in small diameter material

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Southern Oregon CROP results: . . . baseline for investor decisions

Locator map per specific supplier

Summary sheet

Detailed supply breakouts by volume, diameter, and year per supplier

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BLM:

A Eagle Lake District (CA) (3.9 mmbf)* B Alturas District (CA) (5.09 mmbf) C Surprise District (CA) (.488 mmbf) D Burns District (OR) (5.381 mmbf) E Lakeview District (OR) (56.89 mmbf)

OR - DOF:

F DOF (33.136 mmbf) Fremont-Winema NF:

G SE Zone–Lakeview/Bly RDs (91.02 mmbf) H NE Zone–Silver Lake/Paisley RDs (68.78 mmbf) I SW Zone–Chiloquin/Klamath RDs (80.97 mmbf) J NW Zone–Chemult RD (86.42 mmbf)

Shasta-Trinity NF:

K Mt. Shasta-McCloud Mgt. Unit (134.75 mmbf) Modoc NF:

L Warner Mtn. RD (49.75 mmbf) M Devils Garden RD (35.84 mmbf) N Big Valley RD (56.5 mmbf) O Doublehead RD (13 mmbf)

Klamath NF:

P Goosenest RD (63.7 mmbf) OR - DSL:

Q DSL (18.639 mmbf) * 5-yr volume offering

Oregon: All Agencies CROP offering ‘06 – ‘10 (gT = 1,179,925 / S = 284.317 mmbf / L = 283.949 mmbf)

F

Q

H

P

E

I

G

J

O

M

K

B

N

A

L

C

D

Locator Map

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F r e m o n t - W i n e m a N F : 4 Z o n e s – 4 0 % ( g T = 5 5 5 , 9 5 3 / S = 1 4 1 . 9 4 / L = 7 4 . 0 5 )

K l a m a t h N F : 1 R D – 8 % ( g T = 5 3 , 7 5 0 / S = 3 6 .1 5 / L = 1 6 . 8 )

S h a s t a - T r i n i t y N F : 1 R D – 1 7 % ( g T = 4 8 , 7 5 0 / S = 4 0 / L = 8 5 )

M o d o c N F : 4 R D s – 1 9 % ( g T = 4 3 6 , 7 0 0 / S = 2 1 . 8 4 5 / L = 4 5 . 9 )

O R - B L M : 2 d i s t r i c t s – 9 % ( g T = 7 9 , 2 7 0 / S = 2 9 .5 3 / L = 1 6 . 8 8 )

C A - B L M : 3 d i s t r i c t s – 1 % ( g T = 5 , 1 5 0 / S = 5 . 6 0 7 / L = 2 . 8 4 2 )

O R - D O F : 4 % ( g T = 2 2 4 / S = 5 . 9 1 / L = 2 7 . 1 8 1 )

O R - D S L : 2 % ( g T = 1 2 6 / S = 3 . 3 2 5 / L = 1 5 . 2 9 )

O r e g o n : A l l A g e n c i e s C R O P o f f e r i n g ‘ 0 6 – ‘ 1 0 ( g T = 1 , 1 7 9 , 9 2 5 / S = 2 8 4 .3 1 7 m m b f / L = 2 8 3 .9 4 9 m m b f )

g T = g r e e n t o n s ( u p t o 7 ” d b h ) S = s m a l l l o g m m b f ( > 7 ” - 1 2 ” d b h ) L = l a r g e l o g m m b f ( > 1 2 ” d b h )

02 04 06 08 010 012 014 016 018 02 0 0

mm

bf

2 0 06 2 0 07 2 0 08 2 0 09 2 0 10

O r e g o n - A l l A g e n c i e s : ( 5 - y r t o t a l = 8 0 4 . 2 5 m m b f )

2 3 5 . 9 8 5 m m b f i s < 7 " = 1 , 1 7 9 , 9 2 5 g T o f b i o m a s s 2 8 4 . 3 2 m m b f i s > 7 " - 1 2 " = s m a l l l o g s

2 8 3 . 9 5 m m b f i s > 1 2 " = l a r g e l o g s

>12 "

>9 " -12 "

>7 " -9 "

>4 " -7 "

<4 "

g TB i o m a s s S m a l l L o g L a r g e L o g

2 0 0 6 2 8 5 1 2 5 . 5 1 0 2 6 4 . 2 9 2 5 7 4 6 6 . 6 4 0 4 3 2 2 32 0 0 7 2 2 0 7 3 7 . 2 3 3 9 5 7 . 2 7 6 6 9 0 6 4 5 5 . 6 1 6 8 9 6 8 42 0 0 8 2 7 0 8 6 1 . 4 8 1 2 5 8 . 4 8 9 8 8 6 6 3 5 5 . 7 8 5 1 4 0 6 92 0 0 9 2 1 5 0 3 0 . 0 8 8 6 5 4 . 3 3 0 1 4 3 1 5 5 9 . 2 1 9 2 9 9 5 42 0 1 0 1 8 8 1 7 0 . 3 8 1 5 4 9 . 9 2 7 7 5 8 5 9 4 6 . 6 8 6 9 7 7 2 3

T o t a l s 1 1 7 9 9 2 4 . 6 9 5 2 8 4 . 3 1 7 0 5 2 7 2 8 3 . 9 4 8 7 4 6 5% 2 9 % 3 5 % 3 5 %

m m b f 2 3 5 . 9 8 4 9 3 9 18 0 4 . 2 5 0 7 3 8 3

m m b f

Summary Sheet

Mater Ltd



SE Zone (Lakeview-Bly RDs) - 26%

Ponderosa Pine: Fremont-Winema - NF 4 RDs – biomass offerings

Levelized supply?

(% of NF offering of 275,312 gT)

NE Zone (Silver Lake–Paisley RDs) - 23%

SW Zone (Chiloquin-Klamath RDs) - 35%

NW Zone (Chemult RD) - 16%

Fremont-Winema NF - SE Zone (Lakeview-Bly RDs): Ponderosa Pine

Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (72,050.8 gT)

14653.64925

4129.125

22839.96

15214.056 15214.056

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

gt

Fremont-Winema NF - NE Zone (Silver Lake/Paisley RDs): Ponderosa Pine

Total 5-yr Biomass (up to 7" dbh) by Specie (64,206 gt)

12193.896 11703.12 11703.12

14303.12 14303.12

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

gt

Fremont-Winema NF - SW Zone (Chiloquin-Klamath RDs): Ponderosa Pine


29035.76

16736.72 16736.72 16736.72 16736.72

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

gt

Fremont-Winema NF - SW Zone (Chemult RD): Ponderosa Pine


3608.82192.32

12433.72 12433.72 12433.72

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

gt

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(% of total volume) 4”-7”

>7”-9”

>9”-12”

Ponderosa pine 22% 9% 28%

White fir 17% 8% 21%

Jeffrey pine 42% 3% 14%

Juniper 13% 18% 31%

Douglas fir 23% 17% 28%

Lodgepole pine 21% 12% 25%

Incense cedar 11% 12% 19%

Knobcone pine 11% 16% 21%

Sugar pine 25% 25% 26%

Other conifers 6% 7% 23%

A very good picture for small log processing with largest percentage of flow to be in the >9”-12” strata, and with an annual volume of ~ 57 mmbf.

<4”

11%

9%

14%

6%

7%

9%

0%

0%

0%

0%

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’01-’05(mmbf)

Thru ‘09(mmbf includes gT)

White fir 27.9 62.8

Incense cedar 7.07 0

Ponderosa pine 43.1 198.9

White pine .229 0

Other conifers 7.9 0

Lodgepole pine 12.3 65.4

Total 93.4 327.1

Is there a change? Yes!

Winema-Fremont NF

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mmbf % of total

Approved 111.16 34%

In process 122.24 37%

Just started 30.25 9%

Not started 63.53 19%

Fremont-Winema NF: Total 5-yr volume (327.18 mmbf; includes gT as mmbf)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NEPA Process: Fremont-Winema NF Total 5-yr Volume (327.18 mmbf)

Over 70% of planned removal already NEPA approved or in process!

NEPA?

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mmbf % of total

Approved 7.61 12%

In process 16.73 27%

Just started 32.55 52%

Not started 5.38 9%

OR-BLM: Total 5-yr volume (62.27 mmbf; includes gT as mmbf)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NEPA Process: OR-BLM Total 5-yr Volume (62.27 mmbf)

Almost 40% of planned removal already NEPA approved or in process!

NEPA?

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Southern Oregon

Northern Utah

Southern Utah

Colorado New Mexico

S. Carolina

(1)

S. Carolina

(2)NE

Biomass (gT) 1,179,925 239,348 274,512 273,726 1,040,968 433,620 354,000 81,597

Small log (mmbf)

284.3 97.36 149.65 279.1 77.3 65.2 102.12 72.58

Large log (mmbf)

283.95 38.53 78.15 128.1 22.65 38 194.86 67.87

5 year CROP volumes (gT)

Biomass and Small

log as a % of total

5-yr.

65% 79% 72% 72% 93% 77% 46% 57%

In proper perspective: enough biomass to build 17 new small log mills and 7 new large log mills

Tahoe MS

947,182 227,625

687.51 109.54

657.13 111.49

57% 58%

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Catherine M. Mater:President—Mater Engineering

Senior Fellow – The Pinchot Institute for ConservationCorvallis, Oregon; Washington, DC

tel: (541) 753-7335 fax: (541) 752-2952; cell: (541) 760-5526E-mail: [email protected]

For more information:

Edmund Gee:Nat'l Woody Biomass Utilization Team Leader

Nat'l Partnership Coordinator USFS Washington DC

tel: (202) 205-1787 fax: (202) 205-1045 cell: (202) 236-5153 E-mail: [email protected]

salt lake city crop biomass summit july 2007 mater ltd 1catherine m. mater crop and “levelized”...

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