TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In this section, we have carried out technical analysis of PVR Ltd. stock listed in NSE stock exchange. The stock price has been monitored from 4th May 2015 to 30th October 2015 i.e. period of 6 months. The methodology used for the analysis is as follows.

Interpretation of stock price to analyze the buy and sell points Analysis of recent news linked to PVR Ltd. and its related industry and change in price

accordingly Find out risk involved with the stock on par with market – using Beta Understand trends and patterns in share price movements using Simple Moving Average Analysis of Bollinger bands to track volatility and relative price developments over time Analysis of price movements using Relative Strength Index

PVR Ltd. (NSE stock exchange)PVR Ltd. stock is listed in both BSE as well as NSE stock exchange under Media and Entertainment (Recreational Services) industry segment. The price movement of the stock in NSE stock exchange is shown in the following figure for 6 months daily data (from 4th May 2015 to 30th October 2015).

Figure 1: Price trend – PVR Ltd. (Source: NetDania.com)

In span of 6 months the price has changed from Rs. 625 to Rs. 828.45. During this period we have also tried to analyze the information / news in the market linked to the company as well its allied industries. These news items are listed below.Table 1: News / Information linked to PVR Ltd.1

1 Google- Finance

Date News SourceMay 29, 2015

PVR Q4 net loss at Rs 36.35 crore Daily News & Analysis

May 30, 2015

FY-2015: Tepid box office, World Cup Cricket chop PVR profits

Indiantelevision.com

Jun 9, 2015 PVR to acquire DT Cinema (for 5 billion INR) The Indian Express &Reuters Key Development

Jun 12, 2015 PVR to raise 350 crore Hindu Business LineJun 13, 2015 PVR Ltd calls for EGM on July 10, 2015 to issue shares on

preferential basisEquity Bulls

Jun 16, 2015 Multiplex Operator PVR To Raise Funds DealCurryJun 16, 2015 Jurassic World Brings 'Dinosaur' Gains For PVR NDTVJul 3, 2015 PVR could see best ever Q1: IDFC Hindu Business LineJul 5, 2015 Multiplexes moving into smaller towns; PVR Cinemas

plans to expand to over 1,000 centres by 2018ET Retail

Jul 10, 2015 PVR opens 1239-seat Cinema in Vadodara, Gujarat Real Time News, IndiaJul 13, 2015 PVR ends 4% up on shareholders's nod to raise Rs 350

crore via preferential allotment of sharesEconomic Times

Jul 23, 2015 PVR Ltd approves NCD issue, preferential allotment Equity BullsJul 25, 2015 Morgan Stanley buys 7 lakh shares of PVR Moneycontrol.comJul 27, 2015 L Capitals Asia's Subsidiary Ecosys Exits Multiplex

Operator PVRDealCurry

Jul 28, 2015 PVR plans to install Dolby Atmos technology in 50 cinemas

Hindu Business Line

Aug 12, 2015 PVR - Resignation of Directors Moneycontrol.comAug 20, 2015 Ajay Bijli-led PVR Ltd acquires 70% stake in 4700BC

Popcorn startup owner Zea MaizeET Retail

Sep 4, 2015 PVR board okays merger with Bijli Holdings Hindu Business LineSep 18, 2015 PVR cinemas cancel MSG 2: The Messenger's show Hindustan TimesSep 20, 2015 DLF to open Rs 300-crore Emporio Mall in Delhi by May

2016ET Retail

Sep 21, 2015 Paytm plans to sell movie and entertainment tickets; to take on Bookmyshow.com

ET Retail

Oct 30, 2015 Jazz Cinemas buys Luxe multiplex The Hindu

There was a steep increase in the price from July 2015 onwards and during that period it was in the news that the PVR Ltd. was planning to expand over 1000 centres by 2018, moving into smaller towns. Also, there was preferential allotment of shares with which they raised Rs 350 crores. During the end of July, Morgan Stanley bought 7 lakh shares of PVR. The prices rose as high as Rs. 850. During mid August, the price again fell, which can be linked to resignation of top management (Directors) in the organization.BETA Calculation of the stockBeta of a stock or a portfolio is a measure of volatility in comparison to the market as a whole. It measures the systematic risk. Beta can be positive or negative.

Beta formulaA beta of 1 indicates that the price of a security will move exactly in the same proportion and direction as the market. A negative beta implies that the direction of movement in the price of a security will be opposite to that of the market. For example, a beta of 1.2 indicates that if the market moves up by 10% then the security will move up by 12%. There is another measure called the R-squared value. This value tells us how accurately beta predicts the security’s movement with respect to movement in the market. R-Squared value can range from 0 to 1. Higher the R-squared value higher is the predictive power of beta.The close price of the stock, CNX Media and CNX 500 is given below. This data was taken from NSE India website (historical data).Table 2: Close price for PVR, CNX Media, CNX 500

Date PVR (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX Media (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX 500 (Rs.) Daily Return

30-10-15 828.45 -1.81% 2405.25 -1.35% 6750.95 -0.50%29-10-15 843.75 1.42% 2438.15 -1.18% 6784.85 -0.63%28-10-15 831.9 0.17% 2467.3 -0.62% 6828.15 -0.61%27-10-15 830.45 0.75% 2482.75 0.21% 6870.35 -0.18%26-10-15 824.3 0.30% 2477.55 -1.64% 6882.6 -0.44%23-10-15 821.8 -3.24% 2518.8 -1.24% 6913.05 0.25%21-10-15 849.3 -0.40% 2550.55 -0.02% 6895.75 -0.16%20-10-15 852.75 -0.20% 2551.1 0.77% 6907.1 -0.01%19-10-15 854.5 -0.11% 2531.6 1.39% 6907.7 0.54%16-10-15 855.45 0.74% 2496.8 0.78% 6870.85 0.54%15-10-15 849.2 1.30% 2477.45 5.20% 6834.05 0.71%14-10-15 838.3 1.01% 2354.95 -2.54% 6786.05 -0.17%13-10-15 829.95 0.80% 2416.3 0.15% 6797.55 -0.07%12-10-15 823.4 -0.59% 2412.75 0.06% 6802.3 -0.40%09-10-15 828.3 -0.75% 2411.35 0.43% 6829.4 0.52%08-10-15 834.6 -0.49% 2401.05 -0.25% 6793.8 -0.61%07-10-15 838.7 -0.86% 2407.15 -0.10% 6835.8 0.25%06-10-15 846 1.32% 2409.55 -0.77% 6818.65 0.44%05-10-15 834.95 1.94% 2428.25 0.65% 6789.1 2.02%01-10-15 819.05 0.34% 2412.6 1.25% 6654.5 0.13%30-09-15 816.3 1.77% 2382.8 1.10% 6646.1 1.43%29-09-15 802.1 0.44% 2356.9 0.91% 6552.35 0.43%28-09-15 798.6 -1.64% 2335.75 -2.36% 6524.25 -0.76%24-09-15 811.9 -0.53% 2392.25 1.82% 6573.9 0.31%23-09-15 816.25 0.80% 2349.6 0.17% 6553.9 0.39%22-09-15 809.8 -1.74% 2345.55 -1.96% 6528.55 -1.78%21-09-15 824.15 0.94% 2392.5 0.85% 6647.15 0.15%18-09-15 816.5 0.40% 2372.3 0.91% 6636.95 0.99%16-09-15 813.25 -1.95% 2350.85 0.09% 6571.6 0.43%15-09-15 829.45 -2.84% 2348.7 -0.30% 6543.25 -0.60%

Date PVR (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX Media (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX 500 (Rs.) Daily Return

14-09-15 853.7 4.24% 2355.7 0.62% 6582.7 1.09%11-09-15 818.95 0.83% 2341.15 0.32% 6511.55 0.11%10-09-15 812.2 -2.01% 2333.7 0.13% 6504.5 -0.27%09-09-15 828.9 4.86% 2330.75 2.80% 6522.3 1.80%08-09-15 790.5 0.75% 2267.2 1.81% 6407 1.32%07-09-15 784.65 -3.99% 2226.9 -0.70% 6323.4 -1.52%04-09-15 817.3 -2.34% 2242.7 -1.53% 6421.05 -2.12%03-09-15 836.85 3.77% 2277.45 1.47% 6560.05 1.30%02-09-15 806.45 -0.86% 2244.4 -0.76% 6475.65 -0.71%01-09-15 813.45 -2.32% 2261.7 -2.86% 6522.25 -2.21%31-08-15 832.8 -0.13% 2328.35 -0.15% 6669.35 -0.37%28-08-15 833.9 2.09% 2331.95 2.29% 6694.45 0.56%27-08-15 816.8 4.10% 2279.65 2.16% 6657.25 2.21%26-08-15 784.65 0.27% 2231.4 1.11% 6513.35 -0.86%25-08-15 782.5 1.25% 2206.8 2.03% 6569.85 1.17%24-08-15 772.85 -7.68% 2162.8 -8.05% 6493.85 -6.71%21-08-15 837.15 -0.09% 2352.15 -2.25% 6961 -0.80%20-08-15 837.9 -0.19% 2406.4 -2.80% 7016.95 -1.53%19-08-15 839.5 2.63% 2475.7 0.25% 7125.85 0.27%18-08-15 818 1.03% 2469.5 -0.22% 7106.4 0.11%17-08-15 809.65 1.95% 2474.85 -1.03% 7098.7 -0.19%14-08-15 794.15 -2.71% 2500.55 3.32% 7112.5 1.95%13-08-15 816.25 -1.31% 2420.1 -0.49% 6976.6 -0.14%12-08-15 827.05 2.20% 2432.1 -2.69% 6986.45 -1.61%11-08-15 809.25 -3.28% 2499.25 0.25% 7101.1 -0.79%10-08-15 836.7 -1.54% 2492.95 0.06% 7157.55 -0.37%07-08-15 849.8 1.47% 2491.55 -0.97% 7183.85 -0.25%06-08-15 837.5 -0.01% 2515.95 -0.21% 7202 0.22%05-08-15 837.6 -0.08% 2521.25 1.96% 7186.25 0.70%04-08-15 838.25 1.04% 2472.75 -0.08% 7136.3 0.10%03-08-15 829.6 -1.67% 2474.65 0.92% 7129 0.32%31-07-15 843.65 0.23% 2452.15 0.99% 7106.2 1.23%30-07-15 841.75 1.67% 2428 -0.02% 7019.6 0.65%29-07-15 827.9 3.73% 2428.55 2.70% 6974.15 0.56%28-07-15 798.15 -1.03% 2364.7 -0.87% 6935.65 -0.28%27-07-15 806.45 0.32% 2385.4 0.97% 6955.35 -1.69%24-07-15 803.9 -5.79% 2362.55 -0.99% 7074.95 -0.76%23-07-15 853.3 -0.53% 2386.25 -1.76% 7129.35 -0.28%22-07-15 857.85 5.25% 2428.95 2.10% 7149.45 1.12%21-07-15 815.05 0.97% 2379.05 0.53% 7070.3 -1.09%20-07-15 807.25 3.16% 2366.5 1.26% 7148.5 0.01%17-07-15 782.55 3.16% 2336.95 0.20% 7148.05 0.16%

Date PVR (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX Media (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX 500 (Rs.) Daily Return

16-07-15 758.55 -0.26% 2332.4 0.99% 7136.8 1.01%15-07-15 760.5 4.06% 2309.55 0.43% 7065.65 0.65%14-07-15 730.8 2.94% 2299.75 0.76% 7020.25 0.05%13-07-15 709.95 4.15% 2282.35 3.12% 7016.55 1.17%10-07-15 681.65 -0.52% 2213.35 1.39% 6935.55 0.29%09-07-15 685.2 0.74% 2182.9 -0.90% 6915.35 -0.35%08-07-15 680.15 -1.64% 2202.7 -3.01% 6939.7 -1.58%07-07-15 691.5 -1.31% 2271.15 -0.96% 7051.05 0.11%06-07-15 700.65 -1.05% 2293.25 1.40% 7043.4 0.56%03-07-15 708.1 6.23% 2261.6 -0.01% 7003.95 0.29%02-07-15 666.6 2.33% 2261.9 1.47% 6983.35 0.16%01-07-15 651.4 2.58% 2229.1 -0.39% 6972.3 1.09%30-06-15 635 2.45% 2237.85 2.62% 6897.2 0.78%29-06-15 619.8 -3.13% 2180.75 -1.64% 6843.95 -0.94%26-06-15 639.8 -2.19% 2217.2 0.56% 6908.85 -0.13%25-06-15 654.15 -0.17% 2204.75 0.54% 6917.55 0.43%24-06-15 655.25 -0.11% 2192.85 0.40% 6887.8 -0.36%23-06-15 656 -0.36% 2184.05 0.02% 6912.45 0.33%22-06-15 658.35 0.27% 2183.7 1.18% 6889.7 1.54%19-06-15 656.6 0.13% 2158.25 -0.58% 6785.1 0.57%18-06-15 655.75 -0.08% 2170.75 -0.34% 6746.85 0.99%17-06-15 656.25 1.34% 2178.25 1.85% 6680.8 0.81%16-06-15 647.6 0.54% 2138.7 1.16% 6627 0.40%15-06-15 644.15 -0.79% 2114.1 1.99% 6600.65 0.35%12-06-15 649.25 0.36% 2072.95 0.21% 6577.4 0.14%11-06-15 646.9 0.26% 2068.6 -0.81% 6568.5 -1.83%10-06-15 645.2 -3.22% 2085.55 1.01% 6691.25 1.18%09-06-15 666.7 0.20% 2064.7 -0.55% 6612.9 -0.28%08-06-15 665.35 -0.64% 2076.05 -2.86% 6631.3 -1.04%05-06-15 669.65 0.13% 2137.15 2.01% 6700.7 -0.06%04-06-15 668.75 2.88% 2095.05 1.13% 6704.75 0.02%03-06-15 650.05 -3.65% 2071.6 -1.36% 6703.45 -1.41%02-06-15 674.65 0.30% 2100.1 0.34% 6799.45 -2.27%01-06-15 672.6 1.03% 2092.95 -0.72% 6957.45 -0.03%29-05-15 665.75 2.15% 2108.2 0.47% 6959.85 1.34%28-05-15 651.75 -0.66% 2098.4 -0.24% 6867.75 -0.25%27-05-15 656.05 -0.55% 2103.45 0.32% 6885.1 -0.08%26-05-15 659.7 0.79% 2096.8 0.30% 6890.6 -0.30%25-05-15 654.5 -0.18% 2090.6 0.07% 6911.15 -0.77%22-05-15 655.65 -0.21% 2089.1 -0.15% 6964.45 0.37%21-05-15 657.05 1.01% 2092.2 -0.29% 6938.75 -0.08%20-05-15 650.5 0.64% 2098.25 0.80% 6944.4 0.50%

Date PVR (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX Media (Rs.) Daily Return

CNX 500 (Rs.) Daily Return

19-05-15 646.35 -0.58% 2081.5 0.61% 6909.7 -0.02%18-05-15 650.15 -0.05% 2068.85 3.00% 6910.85 1.23%15-05-15 650.5 0.88% 2008.65 -0.21% 6827.05 0.45%14-05-15 644.85 0.74% 2012.85 0.13% 6796.75 0.24%13-05-15 640.1 0.42% 2010.3 -0.93% 6780.4 1.36%12-05-15 637.4 -3.32% 2029.1 -2.83% 6689.4 -2.19%11-05-15 659.3 2.77% 2088.2 1.66% 6839 1.64%08-05-15 641.55 -0.60% 2054.15 1.23% 6728.9 1.69%07-05-15 645.45 -0.16% 2029.1 -0.24% 6616.85 -0.96%06-05-15 646.5 1.52% 2034 -2.12% 6680.9 -2.87%05-05-15 636.8 0.80% 2078 -1.47% 6878.5 0.07%04-05-15 631.75 2109.1 6873.4

The beta and R square value for the stock has been calculated wrt NSE stock exchange (CNX 500) and sectoral index (CNX Media). It was seen that for both the index, the beta for the stock was less than 1 that means it is less volatile than the market hence less risky. The beta and R squared values are shown in the table below.Table 3: Beta and R square values

Parameter

W.R.T. CNX Media

W.R.T. CNX 500

Beta 0.60 0.94 R squared 0.22 0.26

(Simple) Moving Averages(Simple) Moving Averages (SMA) is calculated by computing the average (mean) price of an Instrument over the chosen period. A 20 day Simple Moving Average will for each data point show the mean of the 20 last closes of the Instrument. Simple Moving Average is a “lagging” indicator more useful to track movements within a trading range than for predictions. SMA arguably makes it easier to spot trends in markets. The following figure shows 20 day simple moving average with price of the stock PVR Ltd. When moving average is above the actual line. So it indicates that it is a right time to buy the security.

Figure 2: 20 day Simple moving average (PVR Ltd.) – Source: NetDania.com

Here, In this case, Moving Average is above the Actual line. So it indicates that it is a right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can see that the moving average of Tata Motors Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of future movement of the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a right time to buy the Stock of Tata Motors.

Here, in this case, the actual Stock price of Tata Motors is just below its moving average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.

Moreover, Stock price and moving Average of Tata Motors has been decreased. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on the Stock Price of Tata Motors.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands (BB) aims at enabling users to track volatility and relative price developments over time. BB introduces a trading band on each side of a Simple Moving Average, defined by adding or subtracting a number of standard deviations, hereby filtering away “extreme” data, implying that the analyst should focus on what goes on within the two trading bands. The Simple Moving Average and the desired number of standard deviations must defined in the input.

Some traders prefer to trade when the price is close to either of the two BB trading bands, or to sell when the price closes above the upper band, buy when it closes below the lower band.A band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger.

Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger Bands® adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

Relative Strength Index

RSI – the Relative Strength Index - Was developed by J. Welles Wilder in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” (1979, ISBN 0894590278).

The input for RSI is the X period - number of days (quotes). The RSI then explores each day where gains or losses were made in the first X days compared to the previous day. The total gains and the total losses are then sum-totaled and then averaged in two numbers.

After the first gain and loss average are computed, the next ones are computed using the previous values:

The equation to compute the Relative Strength Index is:

J.Welles Wilder suggests to use 14 days RSI and sees a RSI falling below 70 as a bearish trend, while a RSI rising above 30 is seen by Wilder as a bullish trend. Also RSI is by many considered useful for analysing divergence between the Instrument price movements and the degree of “Overbought” or “Oversold” when the RSI moves into the extremes above 70 or below 30.The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.It states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it.

From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the stock was between 27th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best time to buy the stock was between 8 th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to 24th Jan 08 as well as between 7th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30 for these many days.

RSI has been broken down into its basic components: RS, Average Gain and Average Loss. This RSI calculation is based on 14 periods, which is the default suggested by Wilder in his book. Losses are expressed as positive values, not negative values.

The very first calculations for average gain and average loss are simple 14 period averages.

First Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods / 14. First Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods / 14

The second, and subsequent, calculations are based on the prior averages and the current gain loss:

Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14. Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14.

Date Close Change Gain Loss Avg Gain Avg Loss RS 14-day RSI1 04-05-15 631.752 05-05-15 636.8 5.05 5.05 0.003 06-05-15 646.5 9.70 9.70 0.004 07-05-15 645.45 -1.05 0.00 1.055 08-05-15 641.55 -3.90 0.00 3.906 11-05-15 659.3 17.75 17.75 0.007 12-05-15 637.4 -21.90 0.00 21.908 13-05-15 640.1 2.70 2.70 0.009 14-05-15 644.85 4.75 4.75 0.00

10 15-05-15 650.5 5.65 5.65 0.0011 18-05-15 650.15 -0.35 0.00 0.3512 19-05-15 646.35 -3.80 0.00 3.8013 20-05-15 650.5 4.15 4.15 0.0014 21-05-15 657.05 6.55 6.55 0.00 RS RSI15 22-05-15 655.65 -1.40 0.00 1.40 4.02 2.31 1.74 63.4716 25-05-15 654.5 -1.15 0.00 1.15 3.73 2.23 1.67 62.6017 26-05-15 659.7 5.20 5.20 0.00 3.84 2.07 1.85 64.9518 27-05-15 656.05 -3.65 0.00 3.65 3.56 2.18 1.63 62.0019 28-05-15 651.75 -4.30 0.00 4.30 3.31 2.34 1.42 58.6320 29-05-15 665.75 14.00 14.00 0.00 4.07 2.17 1.88 65.2621 01-06-15 672.6 6.85 6.85 0.00 4.27 2.01 2.12 67.9622 02-06-15 674.65 2.05 2.05 0.00 4.11 1.87 2.20 68.7523 03-06-15 650.05 -24.60 0.00 24.60 3.82 3.49 1.09 52.2324 04-06-15 668.75 18.70 18.70 0.00 4.88 3.24 1.51 60.0825 05-06-15 669.65 0.90 0.90 0.00 4.60 3.01 1.53 60.4226 08-06-15 665.35 -4.30 0.00 4.30 4.27 3.10 1.38 57.9027 09-06-15 666.7 1.35 1.35 0.00 4.06 2.88 1.41 58.4928 10-06-15 645.2 -21.50 0.00 21.50 3.77 4.21 0.90 47.2329 11-06-15 646.9 1.70 1.70 0.00 3.62 3.91 0.93 48.0930 12-06-15 649.25 2.35 2.35 0.00 3.53 3.63 0.97 49.30

Date Close Change Gain Loss Avg Gain Avg Loss RS 14-day RSI31 15-06-15 644.15 -5.10 0.00 5.10 3.28 3.74 0.88 46.7432 16-06-15 647.6 3.45 3.45 0.00 3.29 3.47 0.95 48.6833 17-06-15 656.25 8.65 8.65 0.00 3.67 3.22 1.14 53.2834 18-06-15 655.75 -0.50 0.00 0.50 3.41 3.03 1.13 52.9835 19-06-15 656.6 0.85 0.85 0.00 3.23 2.81 1.15 53.4636 22-06-15 658.35 1.75 1.75 0.00 3.12 2.61 1.20 54.4737 23-06-15 656 -2.35 0.00 2.35 2.90 2.59 1.12 52.8138 24-06-15 655.25 -0.75 0.00 0.75 2.69 2.46 1.09 52.2639 25-06-15 654.15 -1.10 0.00 1.10 2.50 2.36 1.06 51.4140 26-06-15 639.8 -14.35 0.00 14.35 2.32 3.22 0.72 41.9041 29-06-15 619.8 -20.00 0.00 20.00 2.16 4.42 0.49 32.8042 30-06-15 635 15.20 15.20 0.00 3.09 4.10 0.75 42.9543 01-07-15 651.4 16.40 16.40 0.00 4.04 3.81 1.06 51.4644 02-07-15 666.6 15.20 15.20 0.00 4.84 3.54 1.37 57.7645 03-07-15 708.1 41.50 41.50 0.00 7.45 3.28 2.27 69.4246 06-07-15 700.65 -7.45 0.00 7.45 6.92 3.58 1.93 65.9047 07-07-15 691.5 -9.15 0.00 9.15 6.43 3.98 1.62 61.7648 08-07-15 680.15 -11.35 0.00 11.35 5.97 4.51 1.32 56.9849 09-07-15 685.2 5.05 5.05 0.00 5.90 4.18 1.41 58.5250 10-07-15 681.65 -3.55 0.00 3.55 5.48 4.14 1.32 56.9851 13-07-15 709.95 28.30 28.30 0.00 7.11 3.84 1.85 64.9252 14-07-15 730.8 20.85 20.85 0.00 8.09 3.57 2.27 69.4053 15-07-15 760.5 29.70 29.70 0.00 9.64 3.31 2.91 74.4154 16-07-15 758.55 -1.95 0.00 1.95 8.95 3.22 2.78 73.5655 17-07-15 782.55 24.00 24.00 0.00 10.02 2.99 3.36 77.0456 20-07-15 807.25 24.70 24.70 0.00 11.07 2.77 3.99 79.9757 21-07-15 815.05 7.80 7.80 0.00 10.84 2.58 4.21 80.8058 22-07-15 857.85 42.80 42.80 0.00 13.12 2.39 5.49 84.5859 23-07-15 853.3 -4.55 0.00 4.55 12.18 2.55 4.79 82.7260 24-07-15 803.9 -49.40 0.00 49.40 11.31 5.89 1.92 65.7561 27-07-15 806.45 2.55 2.55 0.00 10.69 5.47 1.95 66.1462 28-07-15 798.15 -8.30 0.00 8.30 9.92 5.67 1.75 63.6363 29-07-15 827.9 29.75 29.75 0.00 11.34 5.27 2.15 68.2864 30-07-15 841.75 13.85 13.85 0.00 11.52 4.89 2.35 70.1965 31-07-15 843.65 1.90 1.90 0.00 10.83 4.54 2.38 70.4566 03-08-15 829.6 -14.05 0.00 14.05 10.06 5.22 1.93 65.8367 04-08-15 838.25 8.65 8.65 0.00 9.96 4.85 2.05 67.2568 05-08-15 837.6 -0.65 0.00 0.65 9.25 4.55 2.03 67.0369 06-08-15 837.5 -0.10 0.00 0.10 8.59 4.23 2.03 66.9970 07-08-15 849.8 12.30 12.30 0.00 8.85 3.93 2.25 69.2671 10-08-15 836.7 -13.10 0.00 13.10 8.22 4.58 1.79 64.2072 11-08-15 809.25 -27.45 0.00 27.45 7.63 6.22 1.23 55.1173 12-08-15 827.05 17.80 17.80 0.00 8.36 5.77 1.45 59.1574 13-08-15 816.25 -10.80 0.00 10.80 7.76 6.13 1.27 55.8675 14-08-15 794.15 -22.10 0.00 22.10 7.21 7.27 0.99 49.7776 17-08-15 809.65 15.50 15.50 0.00 7.80 6.75 1.15 53.5977 18-08-15 818 8.35 8.35 0.00 7.84 6.27 1.25 55.5678 19-08-15 839.5 21.50 21.50 0.00 8.81 5.82 1.51 60.22

Date Close Change Gain Loss Avg Gain Avg Loss RS 14-day RSI79 20-08-15 837.9 -1.60 0.00 1.60 8.18 5.52 1.48 59.7280 21-08-15 837.15 -0.75 0.00 0.75 7.60 5.18 1.47 59.4781 24-08-15 772.85 -64.30 0.00 64.30 7.06 9.40 0.75 42.8782 25-08-15 782.5 9.65 9.65 0.00 7.24 8.73 0.83 45.3483 26-08-15 784.65 2.15 2.15 0.00 6.88 8.11 0.85 45.9084 27-08-15 816.8 32.15 32.15 0.00 8.68 7.53 1.15 53.5685 28-08-15 833.9 17.10 17.10 0.00 9.29 6.99 1.33 57.0586 31-08-15 832.8 -1.10 0.00 1.10 8.62 6.57 1.31 56.7587 01-09-15 813.45 -19.35 0.00 19.35 8.01 7.48 1.07 51.6988 02-09-15 806.45 -7.00 0.00 7.00 7.43 7.45 1.00 49.9589 03-09-15 836.85 30.40 30.40 0.00 9.07 6.92 1.31 56.7590 04-09-15 817.3 -19.55 0.00 19.55 8.43 7.82 1.08 51.8791 07-09-15 784.65 -32.65 0.00 32.65 7.82 9.59 0.82 44.9292 08-09-15 790.5 5.85 5.85 0.00 7.68 8.91 0.86 46.3193 09-09-15 828.9 38.40 38.40 0.00 9.88 8.27 1.19 54.4394 10-09-15 812.2 -16.70 0.00 16.70 9.17 8.87 1.03 50.8395 11-09-15 818.95 6.75 6.75 0.00 9.00 8.24 1.09 52.2096 14-09-15 853.7 34.75 34.75 0.00 10.84 7.65 1.42 58.6297 15-09-15 829.45 -24.25 0.00 24.25 10.06 8.84 1.14 53.2598 16-09-15 813.25 -16.20 0.00 16.20 9.35 9.36 1.00 49.9599 18-09-15 816.5 3.25 3.25 0.00 8.91 8.69 1.02 50.61

100 21-09-15 824.15 7.65 7.65 0.00 8.82 8.07 1.09 52.21101 22-09-15 809.8 -14.35 0.00 14.35 8.19 8.52 0.96 49.01102 23-09-15 816.25 6.45 6.45 0.00 8.07 7.91 1.02 50.48103 24-09-15 811.9 -4.35 0.00 4.35 7.49 7.66 0.98 49.44104 28-09-15 798.6 -13.30 0.00 13.30 6.95 8.06 0.86 46.32105 29-09-15 802.1 3.50 3.50 0.00 6.71 7.49 0.90 47.26106 30-09-15 816.3 14.20 14.20 0.00 7.24 6.95 1.04 51.03107 01-10-15 819.05 2.75 2.75 0.00 6.92 6.45 1.07 51.75108 05-10-15 834.95 15.90 15.90 0.00 7.56 5.99 1.26 55.79109 06-10-15 846 11.05 11.05 0.00 7.81 5.57 1.40 58.40110 07-10-15 838.7 -7.30 0.00 7.30 7.25 5.69 1.28 56.05111 08-10-15 834.6 -4.10 0.00 4.10 6.74 5.58 1.21 54.71112 09-10-15 828.3 -6.30 0.00 6.30 6.26 5.63 1.11 52.64113 12-10-15 823.4 -4.90 0.00 4.90 5.81 5.58 1.04 51.02114 13-10-15 829.95 6.55 6.55 0.00 5.86 5.18 1.13 53.10115 14-10-15 838.3 8.35 8.35 0.00 6.04 4.81 1.26 55.68116 15-10-15 849.2 10.90 10.90 0.00 6.39 4.46 1.43 58.86117 16-10-15 855.45 6.25 6.25 0.00 6.38 4.15 1.54 60.60118 19-10-15 854.5 -0.95 0.00 0.95 5.92 3.92 1.51 60.19119 20-10-15 852.75 -1.75 0.00 1.75 5.50 3.76 1.46 59.37120 21-10-15 849.3 -3.45 0.00 3.45 5.11 3.74 1.37 57.72121 23-10-15 821.8 -27.50 0.00 27.50 4.74 5.44 0.87 46.58122 26-10-15 824.3 2.50 2.50 0.00 4.58 5.05 0.91 47.57123 27-10-15 830.45 6.15 6.15 0.00 4.69 4.69 1.00 50.03124 28-10-15 831.9 1.45 1.45 0.00 4.46 4.35 1.02 50.61125 29-10-15 843.75 11.85 11.85 0.00 4.99 4.04 1.23 55.24126 30-10-15 828.45 -15.30 0.00 15.30 4.63 4.85 0.96 48.87

The Beta factor describes the movement in a stock’s or aportfolio’s returns in relation to that of the market return. Themain purpose of using Slope or Beta is to predict the change inthe market. Beta is a measure of the market or non-diversiblerisk associated with any given security in the market. Theformula for predicting Beta is as follows:Market Value of Beta = P1-P0 / P0*100Where,P1 Today’s Close.P0 Previous Close.Beta = Cov (x,y) / var (x)Where,X Market Value of NiftyY Market Value of the ScripThe analysis is done based on the following rule:• If the beta is 1 The share’s movement will be alongwith the market.• If the beta is >1 The share’s movement will be morevolatile than the market.• If the beta is <1 The share’s movement will be lessvolatile than the market.

For a 14-period RSI, the Average Gain equals the sum total allgains divided by 14. Even if there are only 5 gains (losses), thetotal of those 5 gains (losses) is divided by the total numberof RSI periods in the calculation (14 in this case). The AverageLoss is computed in a similar manner. When the Average Gainis greater than the Average Loss, the RSI rises because RS willbe greater than 1. Conversely, when the average loss is greaterthan the average gain, the RSI declines because RS will be lessthan 1. The last part of the formula ensures that the indicatoroscillates between 0 and 100. Note: If the Average Loss everbecomes zero, RSI becomes 100 by definition.

SUGGESTIONS / LEARNINGS:

Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate knowledge of capital market. Investor should keep into mind following 2 things:

o Investment horizon (time)o Objective / motive for the investment

Don’t be greedy Diversify your portfolio to hedge risk It is better to go for long term investment rather than the short term investment. Little knowledge is dangerous. Do not overreact Don’t be over confident Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in order to look for

avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper, Economy watch etc.