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June 2016

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Saudi Banking Sector

Saudi Arabia | Quarterly Report | Q1-2016

Saudi Banking Sector - 1Q-2016The Saudi banking sector’s balance sheet in 1Q-2016 stood at SAR 2,225bn, depicting a jump of 2.8%YoY and 0.7%QoQ. Total loans weighed in at 65.5% of the total assets, whereas deposits accounted for 85% of total liabilities. The banking sector balance sheet has grown at a 10-year CAGR of 11.3%.

The Saudi banking sector has a total of 12 listed banks and other non-listed banks. In term of balance sheet size, National Commercial Bank (NCB), with assets of over SAR 453.3bn is the biggest bank in the Kingdom, accounting for 20.6% of the total market, followed by Alrajhi bank with an assets base of SAR 323.3bn (14.7% of market share). Samba and Riyadh Bank both account for more than 10% each of the total banking assets.

Out of the total 12 banks, 4 banks namely Bank Alrajhi, Bank Alinma, Bank Albilad and Bank Aljazira are Shariah compliant banks, accounting for 24.3% of the total banking assets. Alrajhi is the biggest Shariah compliant bank in the Kingdom, controlling almost 60.4% of the total market share.

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

Saudi banking Sector Balance Sheet Growth

Banking Sector-Assets Breakdown-1Q-2016

Total Banking Asset Market Share-1Q-2016

Saudi banking Sector Balance Sheet Growth-1Q-2016

Banking Sector- Liabilities & Capital Breakdown-1Q-2016

Sharia Compliant Banks Assets Market Share-1Q-2016

Source: SAMA

Source: Bloomberg

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

In B

n SA

R

Saudi Banking Assets-LHS % Growth-RHS

2%

7%

10%

13%

60%

4%

1% 3%

Cash In Vault

Deposits with SAMA

SAMA Bills

Foreign Assets

Loans to Private Sector

Loan to Gov & Quasi-Gov

Fixed Assets

OtherAssets

NCB

Al Rajhi

Samba

Riyad

SAAB

Saudi Fransi

ANB

Saudi Hollandi

SAIB

Alinma

Aljazira

Albilad

21%

15%

11%

10%

9%

8%

8%

5%

4%

4% 3% 2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

In B

n SA

R

Saudi Banking Assets-LHS % Growth (YoY)-RHS

74%

3%

14%

9%

Deposits

Foreign Liabilities

Capital accounts

Other Liabilities

61% 17%

12%

10%

Al Rajhi

Alinma

Aljazira

Albilad

June 2016





Deposits

The Saudi banking deposits have grown steadily along with

the growth in the money supply. Deposits and Money supply

showed 10 Year CAGR of 10.5% and 10.4% respectively. Deposit

in 1Q-2016 stood at SAR 1.61tn, as compared to SAR 1.62tn

in 1Q-2015, depicting a fall of -0.59%YoY. The fall in deposits

is primarily due to the drawdown by the government as it has

looked to balance its budget deficit. Demand deposits in 1Q-

2016 stood at SAR 985.3bn showing a fall of -6.2%YoY.

Out of the total deposit, demand deposit account for 61.2% of

the total deposits, whereas time and savings deposit account

for only 25.6% of the total deposits.

A further breakdown of the deposits show that almost 77%

of the total deposits are held by individuals,21% are held by

government entities.

93.1% of the demand deposits are held by business and

individuals whereas the rest 6.9% are held by the government.

In case of time and Savings deposits nearly 54.4% are held

by business and individuals, whereas 45.6% are held by

government entities.

Deposits Growth

Deposit Growth-1Q-2016

Deposits Break Down

Sector-wise Deposits

Demand Deposits Break Down

Times & Savings Deposit Break Down

Source: SAMA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

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1,800

1994

1995

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Q1-20

16

In B

n SA

R

Deposits-LHS Money Supply(M3)-LHS % Growth in deposits-RHS

Yellow dotted Line Show YoY fall in 1Q-2016 Deposits

9.81%

-0.59%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

-

200

400

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800

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Q1-2015 Q1-2016

Bn

SAR

Demand-LHS Time & Savings-LHS

Quasi-Monetary-LHS % Growth (YoY)-RHS

61.2%

25.6%

13.1%

Demand

Time & Savings

Quasi-Monetary

77%

21%

2%

Business and Individuals

Government Entities

Others

93%

7%

Business and Individuals

Government Entities

54%

46% Business and Individuals

Government Entities

June 2016





Bank Deposits Growth

Deposits Market Share Comparison

Loans Growth

Loans Share According to Maturity Profile Loans Maturity- Growth

Source: SAMA

Source: Company Financials, Bloomberg

-1.4%

11.5%

0.6%

16.0%

1.8%

-5.6% -4.9%

0.1%

6.1%

1.7%

9.7%

1.5%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Al Rajhi Alinma ANB Albilad Aljazira Saudi Fransi

NCB Riyad Samba SAAB Saudi Hollandi

SAIB

1Q-2015 1Q-2016 % Growth

20.5%

16.1%

10.1%

9.9%

8.9%

9.0%

7.8%

4.7%

4.2%

3.7%

3.0%

2.3%

19.4%

15.8%

10.6%

9.8%

9.0%

8.4%

7.9%

5.1%

4.2%

4.1%

3.0%

2.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

NCB

Al Rajhi

Samba

Riyad

SAAB

Saudi Fransi

ANB

SAIB

Alinma

Saudi Hollandi

Aljazira

Albilad

1Q-2016 1Q-2015

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1-2016

In B

n SA

R

Loans % Growth-RHS

Dotted Lines show 1Q-2016growth As compared to 1Q-2015

18.6% 22%

52%56%

30% 30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

Less than 1 Year 1 to 3 Years Over 3 Years

239 284

661 734

382 390

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

In B

n SA

R

Less than 1 Year 1 to 3 Years Over 3 Years

Growth

18.9%

Growth

2.2%

Growth

11.0%

Deposit-Banks break down

National Commercial bank with a deposit base of SAR 326bn is

the largest bank , followed by bank AlRajhi with a deposit base

of SAR 265bn.

The highest growth in deposits was witnessed by Bank Albilad,

which during 1Q-2016 posted growth of 16.0% YoY, improving

its market share from 2.3% to 2.6%. Followed by Alinma which

grew its deposit base by 11.5%YoY, resulting in an improved

market share of 4.1%

National Commercial bank showed a decline of 4.9%YoY in its

deposit base, as it fell from SAR 343bn to SAR 326bn in 1Q-2016,

losing market share form 20.5% to 19.4% in the same time period.

Bank Alrajhi the 2nd biggest bank and the largest shariah

compliant bank showed a decline of 1.4%YoY,in 1Q-2016, in its

deposit base, whereas its market share stood at 15.8%.

Saudi Hollandi Bank with a growth in deposit of 9.7%YoY in 1Q-

2016, improved its market share from 4.7% to 5.1%

Saudi Fransi showed the biggest drop of 5.6%YoY in deposits

standing at SAR 142bn, Fransi’s market share dropped to 8.4%

in 1Q-2016 from 9.0% in 1Q-2015

Loans

The Saudi banking sector total loan book towards the end of

1Q-2016, stood at SAR 1.41tn, depicting a jump of 9.8%YoY. Till

2015, the sector loans book registered a 10 year CAGR of 11.6%.

Almost 56% of the loans extended have a maturity of less than

1 year. However, loans with maturity of between 1 to 3 years

posted a strong growth of 18.9%, increasing its share from

18.6% in 1Q-2015 to 21.5% in 1Q-2016.

The high concentration of short term loans in a rising interest rate

environment make it easier for the bank to re price its new loans.

June 2016





Sector wise Loans Distribution

Retail Loans-Break down

Real Estate Loans

Bank Market Share

Source: Company Financials

Source: SAMA

12.1%

8%

21.4%

5% 3%

50%

Manufacturing

Construction

Commerce

Services

Gov & Quasi Gov

Miscellaneous

8.2% 8.5%

83.4%

3.0%

11.0% 9.4%

79.6%

3.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Home Renovation Vehicles Others Credit Cards/Total Retail Loans

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

Credit Card Includes Retail Loans, acquired through credit cards

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

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180

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

In B

n SA

R

Retail Corporate % Growth-Total % Growth-Corporate % Growth-Retail

17.5%

15.9%

10.6%

9.8%

9.3%

9.3%

8.4%

5.2%

4.3%

4.2%

3.2%

2.3%

18.7%

15.3%

10.7%

9.4%

9.1%

8.8%

8.2%

5.5%

4.3%

4.2%

3.0%

2.6%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%

NCB

Al Rajhi

Riyad

Samba

SAAB

Saudi Fransi

ANB

Saudi Hollandi

SAIB

Alinma

Aljazira

Albilad

Q1-2016 Q1-2015

Loans Break Up

The sector’s largest borrower is the commerce sector. In 1Q-

2016 lending to commerce sector accounted for 21.4% of

the total loans. Followed by the manufacturing sector which

accounted for 12.1% of the total loans.

Retail Loans

The sectors retail loans (does not include Real estate financing,

Finance leasing and Financing against shares (Margin lending))

in 1Q-2016 stood at SAR 334bn, depicting a jump of 6.4% YoY,

2.2% QoQ.

Home renovation is the biggest constituent of retail loans,

accounting for almost 11.0% in 1Q-2016. Loans for vehicle

financing accounted for 9.4% of the total retail loans.

Out of the total retail loans, loans acquired through credit cards

accounted for 3.1% of the total retail loans in 1Q-2016, a jump

from 3.0% in 1Q-2015.

Real Estate Loans

Real estate loans since 2009, has showed a 6 Year CAGR of

21.3%, standing at SAR 171.1bn in 2015. In 4Q-2015, retail

sector accounted for 54.8% of total real estate loans, whereas

corporate sector accounted for 45.2% of the real estate loans.

However, corporate sector real estate loans growth in 4Q-

2015, stood at 54.1% YoY, as compared to retails sector, which

witnessed a jump of 8.5%.

Bank Market Share in Loans

The sector biggest lender is National Commercial bank (NCB),

with a market share of 18.7% in 1Q-2016,this is an improvement

from 17.5% in 1Q-2015. NCB was also biggest gainer in terms of

its loans market share

Followed by Alrajhi, with a market share of 15.3% in Q1-2016,

Alrajhi has shown a drop in its market share from 15.9% in 1Q-

2015. Alrajhi was the biggest loser in terms of its loans market

share.

Saudi Fransi accounted for 8.8% in 1Q-2016, a drop from 9.3%

in 1Q-2015.

Market share for Shariah compliant banks stood at 25.3% in 1Q-

2016, as compared to 25.6% in 1Q-2015. The drop was primarily

due to bank Alrajhi, which as mentioned earlier showed a

drop in its market share in 1Q-2016. Bank Albilad was the only

shariah compliant bank, which improved its market share from

2.3% in 1Q-2015 to 2.6% in 1Q-2016.

June 2016





Bank Loans Distribution

Performing Loans to NPLs

ADR ratio


6%

9%

7%

27.8%

5% 3.5%

16.7%

10%

4.9%

8%

16.5%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300



SAIB

In B

n SA

R

Q1-2015 Q1-2016 % growth

1.6%

0.70%

1.0%

1.37%

0.9% 0.9%

1.5%

0.9% 0.8%

1.1% 1.1%

0.72%

NPLs-Industry Average Q1-2016 , 1.1%

NPLs-Industry Average Q1-2015, 1.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300



SAIB

In B

n SA

R

Performing Loans-Q1-2016 Non-performing Loans-Q1-2015 % Share of NPLs-RHS

NPLs-Industry Average Q1-2016 NPLs-Industry Average Q1-2015

84% 89% 90% 87% 87% 90%

83%

93.6%

76%

87% 93%

89%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



SAIB

Q1-2016 ADR Q1-2015 ADR

Bank Albilad showed the strongest growth in its loan book as it registered an increase of 27.8%YoY in 1Q-2016, which as mentioned earlier helped it in gaining more market share.

NCB with a growth of 16.7%YoY in its gross loans was the second best performer.

Saudi Fransi showed the lowest growth of 3.5%YoY in its gross loans, followed by Bank Aljazira with witnessed a growth of 4.9% YoY .

Shariah compliant banks showed a cumulative growth of 8.1%YoY, in Q1-2016, in its gross loans.

Non-Performing Loans

The sector non-performing loans ratio in 1Q-2016 stood at 1.15% as compared to 1.12% in 1Q-2015. Whereas NPL coverage ratio improved to 181% in Q1-2016 from 170% in Q1-2015.

Alinma and SAIB with 0.7% NPL ratio, are best in the industry, Alinma and SAIB has NPL coverage of 178% and 211% respectively in 1Q-2016. However, its should be noted that Alinma showed a drop in its NPL coverage which in 1Q-2015 stood at 205%

Bank Albilad has the highest NPL ratio of 1.6%, however its NPL coverage ratio stood at 176% in 1Q-2016.

Arab Nationa Bank showed the greatest improvement in its NPL coverage as it improved from 225% in 1Q-2015 to 234% in 1Q-2016.

Alrajhi showed the biggest drop in its NPL coverage ratio, as it went down from 205% in 1Q-2015 to 163% in 1Q-2016.

Advances to Deposit Ratio

The industry ADR ratio showed an improvement in Q1-2016 as it stood at 86.3% as compared to 79.2% in 1Q-2015. The jump in ADR is partially due to flattish growth of 0.5%YoY in deposits and 9.4%YoY increase in loans

Riyadh bank had the highest ADR of 93.6% in 1Q-2016, whereas Samba has the lowest ADR of 76% in 1Q-2016 as compared to 77% in 1Q-2015.

It should be noted that SAMA ( Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency) increased the regulatory ADR limit from 85% to 90%.

June 2016





NIMS

Absolute Cost on Saving and Time Deposits

Lending rates

Operating Income BreakdownCompany-wise Operating Income


Source: Company Financials, Bloomberg

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%



SAIB

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

43%

97%

165%

374%

101%

65%

22%

160%

120% 105%

128% 95%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700



SAIB

IN M

n SA

R

Q1-2015 Q1-2016 % Change

1.21% 1.15% 1.08% 1.04%

1.17% 1.07%

1.53%

1.08% 1.10% 1.03%

1.12% 1.15%

1.21% 1.09% 0.99% 0.95% 1.12% 0.94% 1.59% 1.03% 0.95% 0.94% 0.97% 1.02%0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%



SAIB

Q1-2015 Q1-2016

Q1-2016

Q1-2015

42.1%

30.9%

17.7%

4.0% 5.3%

39.3%

32.5%

20.0%

4.8% 3.3%

Retail

Corporate

Treasurey

Investment Services and Brokerage

Others

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000



SAIB

In M

N S

AR

Retail Corporate Treasurey Investment Services and Brokerage Others

NIMs Under PressureThe sector as a whole saw a drop in its net interest margins.

Saudi Fransi’s NIMs at 0.43% were the lowest in the sector in Q1-2016, followed by Alrajhi as NIMs declined to 0.50%.The lowest fall was witnessed by Samba as its NIMs declined from 0.77% in 1Q-2015 to 0.7% in 1Q-2016. Overall the sector showed an increase of 81% on return on savings and time deposits.

NCB reported the highest cost of SAR 802mn on savings deposit, as compared to SAR 656mn, depicting a jump of 22.3%. NCB recorded the highest return on time and savings deposit with 0.84%.

The highest jump in return on deposit was seen by Bank Albilad standing at 374%YoY.

SAAB return on time and saving deposit, of 0.38% was lowest in the market, closely followed by Bank Alinma and Bank Albilad with returns of 0.39%.

Operating Income BreakdownThe sector in 1Q-2016 posted operating income of SAR 20.8bn against SAR 20.2bn in 1Q-2015, depicting a jump of 3.2% YoY.

Retail, in 1Q-2016, accounted for 42.1% of the total operating income, as compared to 39.3% in 1Q-2015. Retail income showed a jump of 10.6%YoY.

Corporate, with a fall of -2.1% YoY, declined in contribution from 35.2% to 30.9%. Earnings from corporate sector stood at SAR 6.57bn.

Treasury and Investment income showed a decline of -8.7%YoY and -13.9%YoY.

Other income showed an increase of 63.0%YoY.

NCB with an operating income of SAR 4.7bn, contributed 22.5% to the total 1Q-2016 sectors earnings, followed by Alrajhi with earnings of SAR 3.7bn, contributing 17.7% to the sectors earnings.

Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory

Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37

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Disclaimer

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 [email protected]

AnalystSultan Al Kadi+966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 [email protected]

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr+966 11 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

sales

Alaa Al-Yousef+966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional

brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

Brokerage

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani +966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 11 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 16 3617547 [email protected]

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