savills elmbridge home truths

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Savills Elmbridge

Home Truths

Tuesday 22 September 2020

Welcome and thank you for joining.

You are on mute for the duration of the webinar.

We will begin shortly.

2

Welcome

Simon Ashwell

Head of Weybridge and

North Surrey Residential

[email protected]

01932 838 004

Frances Clacy

Residential

Research

[email protected]

020 7409 5905

Charlotte Baylis

Head of Esher

Lettings

[email protected]

01372 461 907

Andrew Perratt

Head of Country

Residential

[email protected]

020 7016 3823

3

Q&A Panelists

Trevor Kearney

Country House Department

[email protected]

020 7409 8872

Louis Winterbourne

Head of Cobham office

[email protected]

01932 586 200

Karl Matier

Head of

Esher office

[email protected]

01372 461 903

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UK Residential UpdateFrances ClacyResidential Research

Source: Savills Research 5

What differentiates the current situation from previous downturns?

House price growth in the run up to the

crisis has been modest

Furlough scheme and

mortgage holidays have

protected homeowners and buyers

Expectation of a v-shaped

downturn and recovery (albeit

a deep & possibly

lopsided one)

Interest rates are at an

unprecedented low, but LTVs

have tightened

Source: Oxford Economics 6

The economic outlook - GDP

Sharp economic contraction in

H1 2020

Unemployment to rise, but still lower

than post-GFC

Interest rates lower for longer-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Ann

ua

l re

al G

DP

gro

wth

-10%Q4 2020

+11%Q1 2022


The economic outlook - unemployment


H1 2020

Unemployment to rise, but still

lower than post-GFC

Interest rates lower for longer0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Une

mplo

ym

en

t ra

te, IL

O d

efinitio

n

4.0%Q1 2023

6.5%Q4 2020


The economic outlook – base rate


H1 2020

Unemployment to rise, but still lower

than post-GFC

Interest rates lower for longer0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

Base r

ate

0.1%Until

Q2 2024

Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 9

Strong bounce back at the top end

88%

103%91%

112% 111%

132%

91%

26%37%

132%

195%

227%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

v s

am

e m

onth

last yea

r

Properties marked as Sold Subject to Contract

Whole Market £1m+

Source: Savills Client Survey August 2020 10

Lockdown has driven a change in buyer requirements

56%

more inclined to work from

home in the future

66%

of those anticipate that they will do so for 3+ days a

week

57%

said a separate space to work from home had become more

important

48%

said accessibility to

Wi-Fi had become more

important

62%

said the amount of garden or

outside space had become

more important (80% of the under 40s)

11Source: Savills Research using Land Registry

Local values

£782kAverage value for Elmbridge

20% £1m+ transactions

4.6%£2m+ transactions

Source: Savills prime regional index, Q2 2020 12

Prime price movements

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

An

nu

al p

rice

move

men

t

All prime UK (excluding London) Cobham, Esher & Weybridge



-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

An

nu

al p

rice

move

men

t




-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

An

nu

al p

rice

move

men

t


Annual

growth

+0.6%All prime UK

(excluding London)

+2.3%Prime Cobham, Esher &

Weybridge

15

Cobham, Esher &

Weybridge

-5.2%Since 2014 SDLT change

Cobham, Esher &

Weybridge

£1.5m+

-12.0%Since 2014 SDLT change

Source: Savills prime regional index, Q2 2020

Source: Savills using Land Registry 16

But what of the SDLT holiday?

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Pote

ntial sta

mp d

uty

savin

gs,

as a

% o

f pu

rcha

se p

rice

Purchase price

FTB saving as a % of purchase price Other saving as a % of purchase price


Looking forward

Buyers and sellers will need to remain pragmatic1

• Unwinding of government support & Brexit will make it difficult to sustain

current momentum2

• The easing of international travel restrictions is particularly important for certain

markets3

• Mortgage debt remains incredibly cheap but is proving difficult to access4

• The wider tax environment may act as a drag on future price growth5


And for the prime rental markets across the commuter zone

Increased tax &

regulation

More try before you buy tenants

Demand for best in class

Low stock levels

Strong demand for family houses

Tenants seeking more space

Lower levels of corporate demand

More demand from Londoners

19

Cobham, Esher &

Weybridge rents

+0.3%Quarterly

Cobham, Esher &

Weybridge rents

-1.3%Annual

Source: Savills prime regional lettings index, Q2 2020

Thank you

© Savills 2020

21

Local Market UpdateSimon Ashwell

Head of Weybridge Residential

22

Our market

Buyer registrations

+102%

Buyers from London

+152%

Viewings arranged

+81%

Sales agreed

+117%

New Instructions

+411%

Source: Savills data August 2019 v August 2020

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Our market 2020

96% of guide price achieved (same pre &

post lockdown)

Buyers with London postcode rose from

27% pre-lockdown to a staggering 68%

post-lockdown

Number of sales in St George’s Hill up 63%

compared to the same time last year

In 2020 Cobham office sold 19% more

property valued below £1.75m than in 2019

54% of our sales generated multiple offers

Esher office arranged an incredible 188%

more sale in August 2020 than the previous

year

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Orchard Gate, Esher: Guide £1.45 million

Launched 7th Sept

9 viewings booked in three days

Sale agreed in excess of asking price

Client was able to secure their onward purchase

Birds Hill Rise, Crown Estate: Guide £3.95 million

Local buyer

Sold off market prior to build completion

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The pull of the Private Estate

Ashley Park

Guide £3.45m – Competitive bidding

London v Local

Burwood Park


International v Local

Burwood Park


London v Local

St. George’s Hill

Guide £3m – Competitive bidding

London v Local

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The pull of the Private Estate

Burwood Park

Guide £1.85m – Esher buyer

Southfield Place

Guide £1.05m – Weybridge buyer

Ashley Park

Guide £1.45m – Walton buyer

St. George’s Hill

Guide £2.15m – Cobham buyer

Source: Savills 27

What does £1m buy you in…..

Weybridge

Wootton Cottage

4 bed detached

1,735 sqft

£605 psf

Vincent Road

3 bed detached

1,607 sqft

£653 psf

Cobham

Esher

Grapes House

4 bed terrace

1,885 sqft

£581 psf

London SW1

Moore House

1 bed flat

758 sqft

£ 1,385 psf

The power of competition

Mizen Close, Cobham Garden Cottage, Leatherhead The Grange, Walton on Thames

Sold before formal launch of marketing campaign

Offer agreed in excess of the guide price

Guide £1.695 million

Sold within 10 days of launching onto the market

4 buyers offered

Sealed bids

Sold in excess of the guide price

Guide £1.695 million

Launched on Thursday

16 viewings on Saturday

8 offers

Sealed bids

Sold in excess of the guide price

Guide price £1.050 million

28Source: Savills

54% of sales were the result of multiple offers.

Source: Savills 29

Is it all good news?

Number of apartments for sale

Weybridge 281

Walton on Thames 207

In total 1,552 with 3 miles of Weybridge High Street

Best in class will sell

30

Summary Buyer demand started rising January 2020

Pent up demand with London families

moving out rose sharply after lockdown

Gardens, privacy and office space key

Less need for easy commuting

Access to schools important

St George’s Hill slowly recovering as

available stock level decreases

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Elmbridge LettingsCharlotte Baylis

Head of Esher Lettings

The market so far

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March – September (2019 vs 2020)

Volume of new applicant registrations (+47%) Volume of viewings (+14%)

Number of Relocations from London (+18.5%) Average Asking Price of Deals (13.6%)

Number of Corporate searches (-50%)

Minor Trends/Points of Interest

• Rent reductions and Country Retreat demand

• Incredible appetite to move at the earliest opportunity (video viewings)

• New or recently refurbished homes most desired

• Demand outweighing supply across all price points

• Most competitive price point has been family homes sub £3,500 pcm

• London movers bolstering less corporate demand

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Lifestyle movers

The Fairway, Weybridge Leys Road, Crown Estate

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St Georges Hill

Price is Key

Albany Close, Blackhills

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lll 66

66 4

Looking forward

Size is Key

Flexibility

Best in Class Pet-Friendly

Stock LevelsCorporate Services

37

Q&A

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