scenario building(2)
TRANSCRIPT
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How do you prepare for disasters …
There are several methodsBased on past experienceLocally and internationallyThe event – its positive actions and negative actions
Based on research findingsBased on future predictions
Predictions of disaster events and their extentGlobal warming and islands going under the see
Based on anticipation Anticipated outcomes based on SCENARIOS
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Two Questions ………………………..
Who is V. Sharman?
What did he do?
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Vishnu Sharman was a grate sage wholived in India.He wrote the epic tale of “PanchaTantraya”Through the verses or stories of the“Pancha Tantraya” the sage was able to
teach the stupid princes of the art andscience of governance.
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What is a SCENARIO“A situation” to be simple“ A situation of eventsbased on probability”
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Define …………………………………MURPHY’S Law
“IF ANYTHING CAN GO WRONG,
IT WILL”!
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What is a “Worst Case Scenario”Is an extreme situation that
is hypothesized based onthe worst possible outcome/ outcomes that may occur.
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Example of a SCENARIO“A passenger bus coming from Kurunegala today morning (Monday the 29 th of December), has run intothe train at the rail crossing. Several persons have diedand several dozens of persons have succumbed injuriesfollowing this incident. The accident victims have beentaken to the Kurunegala and Ragama Hospitals fortreatment and some are in critical condition”
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What do you observe in thisSCENARIO
A disastrous event has occurred with many fatal and nonfatal casualties
Since it is a Monday – there will be lot of vehicles in theroad and transportation of the victims to the hospital will not be much of a problem
Again the hospital will be full of medical officers and
other staff – therefore no problem will be there in thetreatment
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If preparedness is based on this
event . We cant be certain that should a more
CATASTROPHICEVENToccur the response will be the same.
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Therefore………………………………….In the preparedness phase we have to
prepare for the worst possible situationthat could happen, so that once we areprepared for the worst possiblesituation we can fully manage a lesssevere condition with relative ease.
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How do you transform this“SCENARIO” to a “WORST CASE
SCENARIO”Select the worst possible disaster situation wheremaximum number of casualties can be affected
RTA / Dam burst / reservoir TSUNAMI / CycloneSelect the worst possible time
Time of yearDay of the weekTime of the day
Select the instance where the hospital is most vulnerableSunday or Public HolidayNight time or early morning
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Now lets transform the previous
SCENARIODisaster situation
Train and bus collisionDue to collision the several compartments of the trainhave derailed and capsized and the bus has explodedand burntMany hundred injured ranging from scratches tomultiple fractures to severe burns
Several dozens dead Victims still trapped in the train wreckage and the firehas spread to some of the train compartmentsThe train crossing and the two roads are fully blocked
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Time ……………………………………….
It is Saturday the 15th
of April, the New year had beenon the 13th and 14th . The accident had occurred around5.30 PM. All the government servants from police and fire
brigade to the hospital staff are on minimal stand by asthey will be on vacation leave
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Hospital ……………………………………Only house officers and on call medical officersMight have no surgeons, anesthetists and theater staff
as long weekend and no routine theater lists Ambulance staff at a minimumNursing staff on a minimum
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E.G two .. Worst Case ScenarioBlast incident at a Mall in ColomboTime – 3.30 PM
Date – December 23rd
Sunday
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What is the problemBlastDuring off time
On a week end
Couldn't be much of a problem
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But2 days to ChristmasLast Sunday before Christmas
People packed to the brim on last minuetShoppingSunday – Hospitals empty
No medical officers / nursesLeave / PH off / VacationNo ambulance drivers
Bloody mess
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Exercise
Design a case scenario for your place of workConsider all possible disaster events that have anypossibility of occurring in your area and plot the worstpossible disaster scenario in order to be prepared.Do this exercise for all the possible disaster situationsin your area and do this as a group so that there ispooling of ideas and “brain storming” involved
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Thank you