Name__Nathan J. Kerr___

Date__20140601_____

Scenario Planning Worksheet*Per week three lecture four near the end (minute11:30) I am using this shell for my submission as instructed. 1. Focal Issue

Nearly half of traditional colleges in the next few years may face bankruptcy as costs have soared, budget aid from government has decreased, recessionary constraints have hampered the perceived benefits of a costly education and family wage stagnation has made an education feel out of reach without massive student loans. Should all colleges look to online education as a supplement? How about MOOC offerings as a price-point introduction? Will this cheapen the image of the more selective colleges? The overall focal question I would ask if psychics were real is, should (the ficticous) Ivy University move to an online platform?

2, 3, 4 Identify Key Local Forces, Macro Forces and Rank

ForceLocal or MacroRank

Technology is readily available via the internetMacro9

Society demands a cost effective approach to education especially in austere times.Macro and Local5

It is Economically cheaper to deliver information via broadband/ remotely and share resources such as books, library journals etc.Macro8

Building more buildings, parking structures, using energy (driving, utilities) etc. is more expensive and hinders the environment.Macro7

Although coming on par, learning with fellow students is more conducive to tacit knowledge than remotely.Macro4

Politically, this disruption will hit selective colleges commanding large sums for tuition and admissions competition last but hardest (Christensen, 2013)

Macro1

Colleges are hiring more adjunct lower paid professors affecting livelihood and possibly quality of services renderedLocal10

Students can garner needed skills for employment (especially STEM)

Skills trade will still need to be partially on-site learned or practiced (e.g. healthcare, HVAC etc.)Local6

Will have initial costs of investment for IT such as video sharing software (Webex), teaching software (Blackboard), bandwidthLocal11

Will revolutionary research be affected as more brick and mortar closes?

Local and Macro3

Although regional accreditation will remain, how about special accreditation such as AACSB for business or ABA for legal courses?Local2

5 Select Scenario Logics -

6. Flesh Out the ScenarioScenario 1 Just get it done by departmentKey Characteristics * Long term vision * Divergent paths to get there * Lack of communication from different departments * Strategies adapted. Lack of stakeholder buy-inKnowing that integrating online education is a key to survival, Ivy University can come up with a long-term vision and each department can decide for itself the level of online learning, in-class requirements, and resource allocation in the budgetary process.

Each department will propose and approve a plan as a small-business unit for which its faculty believes will be as least disruptive yet revolutionary enough to compete with other selective AND non-selective colleges while attempting to maintain its tuition levels and selective image. Although better than nothing, at the target time of 2020 for full implementation, the world of college education will have fully been disrupted by Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) at the highest levels of college and online for-credit college courses at all levels of education. Some departments may be ahead of others in deciding which courses to offer as MOOCs for price-point advertising, window-shopping, and community benefit (e.g. developing countries able to take algebra or computer science course for certificate of completion) whereas other departments lagged hurting the overall image of the university. Stakeholders (trustees, students, parents, teachers, alumni etc.) are not entirely sold as the university seems to be at odds of how they are getting there and no consistent message has been relayed.

Scenario 2- Harness ChangeKey Characteristics * Long term vision of what change is * Able to prepare students and faculty/ stakeholders * Evidence based changes with time to fix glitches * Complete buy-in with an overall vision for changeDue to foresight on behalf of all departments and a common vision of where Ivy University is moving, key influencers for each department overtime and with much though and debate were able to create this common vision and how to get there by 2020. Knowing that technology is already available to offer courses online, the business school and the school of criminal justice decided to begin offering undergraduate level courses that could easily be taught online as well as the liberal arts department with general education requirements. This was done by first offering free MOOC courses to the general populace which showed the stakeholders free of charge where the college was going and what capabilities it had harnessed. It also expressed on a mass level the challenges involved so that when the courses are offered for credit, they were ready. By partnering with and researching other schools, especially primarily online schools such as the University of Phoenix, they were able to learn best-practices so that when Ivy University goes hybrid with both online and offline courses, they delivered a Ivy level education which allowed it to command premium prices for its past, present, and future reputation. Scenario 3- Discombobulated MessKey Characteristics * Short term vision * Disruption happened * No defined path * Last minute policy making with differing opinions * Lack of communication * Feel discombobulatedBelieving (based on Gartners hype level of trough of disillusionment) that MOOCs are not faring well now and thus never will and some of the old-timers, current high donating alumni forces, etc. providing push back on cheapening the education by providing online courses, the university failed to prepare for the disruption that was soon to take place. 2020 fast approached and more students left Ivy University for a slightly less expensive, yet technologically advanced MIT, Harvard, Yale etc. As on-campus enrollment applications dropped, selectivity (average SAT, MCAT, LSAT, GMAT scores etc.) also fell which hinders Ivys rankings in such publication s as U.S. News and World Reports yearly college reports which itself harnessed disruption and is turning profits while Newsweek is not. The school is not operating on a whim trying to create courses entering the game discombobulated and too late. Research money is flowing to the other universities and the money that normally would be provided in house is being allocated to catch up.

Every department has their own ideas on how to catch up providing a confusing message and differing platforms (some using Blackboard, others using Canvas etc.) for the education. Frustration ensues from the top leadership, the scathing press, the verge of dropping into Tier 2 category, and the customer (students) feeling as if they are paying only for a name. Scenario 4

Key Characteristics * Last minute and short term vision * All departments buy-in * Depend on how other U's did there change * Little coordination time to adapt uncertain strategies As 2020 fast approached, leadership of each department did grow concerned. Sensing this disruption in its later stages and an image to each department and thus the whole university, an informal leader stood up and took the role of director. The director quickly researched in haste how other universities moved to their online platform, how MOOCs provided stakeholder services in STEM or general education for students as far away as Zimbabwe, increased their diversity on campus through international enrollment, and provided key undergraduate education classes (for-credit) at reduced costs allowing for upper level credits to continue to command higher tuition rates online and in traditional settings.

Unfortunately, the image of the school took a hit as the school was unprepared for the technological glitches, the initial confusion of working with a worldwide student population, and a three year spell of confusion upsetting key donors and alumni. 7. Implications for the Focal Issue.

Obviously scenario two is the most viable and responsible course of action for the good of the school, its long term viability, and the disruption that is occurring in higher education regardless if we like it or not. Scenario one if correctly performed can be an option but is vulnerable with differing departments diverging too far apart in strategy or tools. However, the plus to this is that each department may take a different approach that is unique to its type of education. For example, the way an online course is taught in business school is often different than that in a graduate seminary. This allows for a long term plan with flexibility. By taking other steps such as outsourcing some administration, the school can capture some of the tuition loss per credit hour. In addition, it can harness higher technology fees and increase amount of students for some of its lower level courses on a probationary enrollment which leads to full admission with a 3.75 GPA or higher for upper level courses. Those with lower 3.5-3.74 GPAs can gain full admission for on-campus courses only. 8. Select Leading Indicators and Signposts1. Each department has one developed MOOC offering for non-credit certificates of achievement by SY 2015 using differing teaching software platforms. 2. All departments will converge and evaluate then select a common platform for online instruction. This will also be a symposium of best practices. 3. Each department offers at least one core for-credit course completely online using agreed upon technology platform by SY 2016.

4. By SY 2019, a review will be made to ensure all classes than can be taught equally as well or better is offered both online or in-class. 5. BY SY 2020, 10% of total student population will be conditional enrollments in lower level general education classes online. These students will meet all other requirements such as SAT scores and minimum high-school GPAs but were not otherwise selected for on-campus enrollment. 9. Forge Contingency Plans

1. Contingency one: If another education facility at the same level of accreditation teaches a course better, can we enter into memorandums of agreement for online course offerings collaborating with each other with the student receiving dual credit for the home-school and school of teaching? 2. Will the political environment regulate and/ or mandate this collaboration? Will public tax-dollars be held over the heads of each school? We will have to lobby the accreditation standard so that Strayer University is not forcing students on MIT or vice versa. 3. If college is not disrupted as planned (highly unlikely scenario), will IVY University forge ahead anyways and capture market? The obvious answer is yes, but may be able to forge slower and at a less costly pace. References

Christensen, C. (2013, June 13). Clayton Christensen: Still disruptive. The Economist. Retrieved June 1, 2014, from http://www.economist.com/whichmba/clayton-christensen-still-disruptive

Meyers, C. (2011, November 13). Clayton Christensen on disruption in online education . The Next Web. Retrieved June 1, 2014, from http://thenextweb.com/insider/2011/11/13/clayton-christensen-why-online-education-is-ready-for-disruption-now/

PROACTIVE

Fragmented

Integrated

REACTIVE