scenarios & branding | patrick collings 2011
DESCRIPTION
This is the presentation on brand strategy in turbulent socio-economic conditions that I gave at the 2011 Branding Conference in South Africa. A key part of the presentation was the use of scenario planning. I also spoke about Sagacite's work on rapid adaptive strategies. I have added a couple of notes to several of the more obscure slides to help viewers understand what I talking about.TRANSCRIPT
by mark visosky
scenarios as the foundation of brand strategy in today’s volatile socio-economic and business environment
scenarios as the foundation of brand strategy in today’s volatile socio-economic and business environmentPatrick CollingsSagacitePatrick CollingsSagacite
Branding Conference8 - 9 June 2011Branding Conference8 - 9 June 2011
introduction to a new way of thinking about
brand strategy
photo by bart
Business & branding
Socio-economic & business environment
Management toolbox
Scenarios
Applying scenarios
business & branding
brands have climbed the internal ladderof importance tothe point that...
photo by @rild
brand strategyequals
business strategy
...and if they were bic pens
Note: Spoke about how deciding where you want to position a brand determines the entire organizational structure and operation. Example of expensive and cheap pens.
“...many enlightened organizations are moving branding entirely away from communications
and toward connecting strategy, culture, and a wider stakeholder involvement.”
Nicholas Ind & Majken SchultzStrategy + Business
socio-economic &business environment
photo by tenisca
the world is facing increased turbulence over the next
decade and beyond Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
released by the National Intelligence Council
caused by leadership change in emerging markets, major policy shifts by governments,
increased armed conflict, interlinked economies, budget cuts by local and national government
by antitezo
VUCAvolatility uncertainity complexity ambiguity
Feature Normal Economy New Normality Economy
Economic Cycles Predictable Absent
Upturns / Booms Definable ( Avg. 7 Years) Unpredictable / Erratic
Downturns / Recessions Definable ( Avg.10 Months) Unpredictable / Erratic
Potential Impact of Issues Low High
Overall Investment Profile Expansive, Broad Cautious, Focused
Market Risk Tolerance Acceptance Avoidance
Customer Attitudes Confident Insecure
Customer Preferences Steady, Evolving Apprehensive, Flight to Safety
taken from Chaotics
relentless innovation
Note: This slide and the following ones looked at how brands are contributing to and experiencing volatility.
demand for results
Note: The example used here was how Google scrapped its non-performing virtual world after a couple of months.
history is no guarantee of tomorrow
and the realization that past glories are just that
in endless conversations
photo by Robert S Donovan
management toolbox
photo by Robert S Donovan
the management toolbox is limited
with management tools designed in a very different era
photo by farmalidanzil
often static in nature
photo by DWRose
and cookie cutter in design
phot
o by
fot
omel
e
many belong to the rationalist school of management thought which works on the underlying assumption that there is one
best future solution
photo by SomeDriftwood
is needed
starting with a new mindset
by maessive
one that accepts that we can’t predict the future and should concentrate on being
flexible enough to successfully engage it, in whatever form it may take
“Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. All you can do is to give yourself the capacity
to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that
capability is the purpose of strategy”
Lord John Browne, former CEO BP
“Nearly all of the Best Global Brands have embraced the idea of constant change,
evolution and innovation, and are able to continually meet the changing requirements
of this customers.”
Interbrand Best Global Brand 2010
scenarios
photo by drew herron
photo by drew herron
the aim of scenarios is to reveal multiple, equally realistic and foreseeable futures
photo by victor cavazzoni
scenarios allow us to see beyond the headlights
distance into the future
forecast scenarios hope
uncertainty
now
and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad hand
image by luna di rimmel
Roots in WW II military planningphoto by Templar1307
Note: Spoke about the early days of scenario planning and the work of Rand strategist Herman Kahn.
took its name from the hollywood trash bin
scenario planning’s most famous hour
Note: Example of how Shell used scenario planning to deal with the 1973 oil crises.
scenario planning intop 25 management tools
Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network
The French School
The Futures Group
Wilson and Ralston
Lindgren and Bandhold
Reference scenarios
Decision Strategies International
Procedural scenarios
Industry scenarios
Soft creative scenariosap
pro
ac
he
s
image by akbar simonse
crafting the scenario
not at crisis timescenarios should never be developed
at the moment of decision. they require time to be absorbed and
embraced
assemble the team gain executive support and involvement, embrace diversity of opinion within and
outside the organization
learning to learnlearning must be a continuous
process and involve learning to re-perceive or reinterpret a situation
start with a questionscenarios start by isolating the relevant
decision that needs to be made
gather the informationbe flexible as you gather broadly and narrowly, focus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected and look for disconfirming
evidence
identify the driversidentify the driving forces that influence
the outcome of events: some will be obvious and others less so.
composing the plotsbuild the scenarios around four questions:
what are the driving forces, what is uncertain, what is inevitable, how about this or that
scenario
the simple 4 choices keep the scenario exercise to four simple and realistic plots that lead to different
choices for the original decision
keep talking & watching developing and maintaining scenarios is an ongoing process of tracking developments, assessment, extrapolation and questioning
image by jim sher
and then the process often implodes
applying scenarios
photo by Simon Bleasdale
trend & opportunity identification
brand positioning
brand portfolios
brand offerings
organizational capacityappl
icab
ility
rapid adaptive strategy
near future budgeting
disposable factories
customizable complexity
shadow portfoliosin p
ract
ice
dynamic pricing
portfolioBrand
just like you have a shadow cabinet theoretically ready to assume power, shadow brand portfolios should be ready to be implement at short notice
luxury goods may have smaller volume packaging to cater for the aspirational market
in economic downturns
automobile makers developing hybrid cars
publishers training designers to design e-books
“In the next few years, successful companies will distinguish themselves by managing
uncertainity better than do their competitors. The very best will create uncertainity for their competitors to struggle with - and there will
be hell to pay by those who fall behind.”
George StalkSenior Partner and Managing Director
The Boston Consulting Group
Note: Spoke about how computer and mobile companies not only have to worry about socio-economic issues but also what game-changing offerings Apple releases.
Ordnung braucht nur der dumme ein genie beherrscht das chaos
Order is needed only by fools, the genius controls the chaos