science, choice and the image of the future andrew zolli z + partners april 2005
TRANSCRIPT
Science, Choice and the Image of The Future
Andrew ZolliZ + Partners April 2005
Good Afternoon!Me, in three bullet points:
• Founder of Z + Partners, a futures research and strategy think-tank
• Futurist-in-residence at Public Radio and American DemographicsEmerging Explorer National Geographic
• Curator of PopTech (www.poptech.com)
Prelude:Great Moments in Communications…
Instructions:• Wash with warm
water• Use mild soap• Dry flat• Do not use bleach• Do not iron• We are sorry our
President is an idiot• We did not vote for
him
I.Tools for Futures Thinking
How Do We Study the Future?
QualitativeScenarios
Quantitative
Modeling
GamePlaying
ExpertAnalysis
HistoricalExtrapolati
on
Prototyping(Design!)
A Few Key Distinctions
Trends: shorter-term, predictive, susceptible to ‘wild cards’, tend to be studied in isolation from one another.
Futures: longer-term, exploratory, systemic, used to understand possible complex circumstances.
Apophenia: the spontaneous perception of connections and meaningfulness in apparently unrelated things.
Common Sources?
+
II.The Image of the Future
PositiveImages
NegativeImages
Late 19th-Century View of the New York City
III.A Framing Example:
Ecovation
Trends in “Green” Thinking
1960’s + 70s
Chapter I:
“Conservation”
1980’s + 90s
Chapter II:
“Sustainability”
2000’s + 10s
Chapter III:
“Ecovation”
No company in the history of the world has ever ‘complied’ its way to greatness.
Why Ecovation?
Shifting Global Attitudes About The Environment
Source: Global Environmental Survey, 2003
Australia
A Few Parting Thoughts…
• Be storytellers, not informants.• Scenarios succeed more than
predictions.• Build simple frames for complex
contents.• Use the channels that count.• Build the network before you need it.• People feel you more than they hear
you.
Thank You!
Lots more at: www.zpluspartners.com
I love email!