Scientific UncertaintyScientific Uncertainty- related to the introduction of - related to the introduction of DNA vaccines in aquacultureDNA vaccines in aquaculture

ByByFrøydis GillundFrøydis Gillund

Hamburg, January 2007

My PHD project:My PHD project:

” ”Genetic engineering in aquaculture: Genetic engineering in aquaculture: Perspectives on management and Perspectives on management and sustainability”sustainability”

Part of an interdisciplinary project including Part of an interdisciplinary project including fish immunology, molecular biology, fish immunology, molecular biology, philosophy of science and sociologyphilosophy of science and sociology

Hamburg, January 2007

Outline of the presentationOutline of the presentation

Walker & Harremoës uncertainty frameworkWalker & Harremoës uncertainty framework Genetic engineering in aquacultureGenetic engineering in aquaculture Models of the fate of the DNA vaccine Models of the fate of the DNA vaccine Preliminary findingsPreliminary findings

Hamburg, January 2007

Uncertainty frameworkUncertainty framework

By Walker & Harremoës:By Walker & Harremoës:

““Providing a conceptual Providing a conceptual framework for the systematic framework for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in treatment of uncertainty in decision support”decision support”

Assisting: Assisting: Better communicationBetter communication Thrust in science and policyThrust in science and policy Prioritizing researchPrioritizing research

Hamburg, January 2007

Dimension of UncertaintyDimension of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is defined as: Uncertainty is defined as:

””any departure from the unachievable ideal of any departure from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism” complete determinism”

Uncertainty as a three dimensional concept:Uncertainty as a three dimensional concept:

Fig. 1 – The three dimensions of Uncertainty (from Walker, Harremoës et al., 2003).

Level

Location

Nature

Hamburg, January 2007

LocationLocation: Where the uncertainty manifests : Where the uncertainty manifests itself within the systemitself within the system

LevelLevel::

NatureNature: Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge : Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and methodology or due the inherent and methodology or due the inherent variability of the systemvariability of the system

Scenario UncertaintyStatistical Uncertainty Recognised Ignorance Total Ignorance

Known outcomes;Known probabilities.

Known outcomes;Unknown probabilities.

Unknown outcomes;Unknown probabilities.

Nothing is known!

Hamburg, January 2007

Genetic engineering in AquacultureGenetic engineering in Aquaculture

Growing demand for fish and shellfish Growing demand for fish and shellfish products accompanied by increasing losses products accompanied by increasing losses due to diseases caused by pathogens and lack due to diseases caused by pathogens and lack of high quality feed sources.of high quality feed sources.

Genetic engineering strategies like marine Genetic engineering strategies like marine genetically modified organisms, DNA genetically modified organisms, DNA vaccines and GM plants as edible vaccines and vaccines and GM plants as edible vaccines and GM feed, are considered as possible solutionsGM feed, are considered as possible solutions

Hamburg, January 2007

DNA vaccinesDNA vaccines

Cheap and easy to produce and Cheap and easy to produce and administrateadministrate

Combat diseases that traditional Combat diseases that traditional vaccines can not eradicatevaccines can not eradicate

The IHNV DNA vaccines for The IHNV DNA vaccines for Atlantic salmon was cleared for Atlantic salmon was cleared for marketing by Canadian food marketing by Canadian food Inspection AgencyInspection Agency

Limited scientific knowledge on Limited scientific knowledge on uptake, persistence and uptake, persistence and degradation of DNA vaccines degradation of DNA vaccines following the injection. following the injection.

Hamburg, January 2007

The natural systemThe natural system

Hamburg, January 2007

The social systemThe social system

Hamburg, January 2007

InterviewsInterviews

We conducted interviews with 12 scientists We conducted interviews with 12 scientists working in the field of DNA vaccination in working in the field of DNA vaccination in Norway.Norway.

The informants represent scientists working in The informants represent scientists working in publicly funded research projects, private publicly funded research projects, private research institutions and management bodiesresearch institutions and management bodies

Hamburg, January 2007

Preliminary findingsPreliminary findings

GenerallyGenerally:: The scientists agreed with the modelThe scientists agreed with the model Few identified adverse effects of DNA vaccines in Few identified adverse effects of DNA vaccines in

aquacultureaquaculture Many possible consequences were mentioned, but the Many possible consequences were mentioned, but the

probabilities for these to occur were considered lowprobabilities for these to occur were considered low Many questioned why DNA vaccines should be Many questioned why DNA vaccines should be

treated differently than other traditional vaccinestreated differently than other traditional vaccines

Hamburg, January 2007

Location of uncertaintyLocation of uncertainty Unintended immune response most frequently Unintended immune response most frequently

mentioned as characterized by uncertaintymentioned as characterized by uncertainty Intended immune response, the fate of the Intended immune response, the fate of the

plasmid DNA and the inserted genes and plasmid DNA and the inserted genes and environmental release where also environmental release where also characterized by uncertaintycharacterized by uncertainty

Hamburg, January 2007

Level of uncertaintyLevel of uncertainty

Research question:Research question:

Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for DNA vaccination of fish? DNA vaccination of fish?

Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer.Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer.

Hamburg, January 2007

Nature of uncertaintyNature of uncertainty

Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related to environmental release was also due to the to environmental release was also due to the natural variability of the phenomenon.natural variability of the phenomenon.

Hamburg, January 2007