scott ferber - videonuze online video ad summit - 6-16-15 v1
TRANSCRIPT
TV & VIDEO: A YEAR OF CONVERGEJUNE 2015
@scottferber
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VIDEO: IT’S BEEN QUITE A YEAR…
The Great TV Unbundling Has Begun. But Be Careful What You Wish For
Oct, 2014
Amazon wins first Golden Globe
Jan, 2015
Cord-Cutting Accelerates in Q1 ‘15 as Pay-TV Operators Lose 31K Subscribers
May, 2015
ESPN Sues Verizon Over New Cable Packages
April, 2015
Verizon Buys AOL for $4.4 billion
May, 2015
Dish Network in Merger Talks With T-Mobile
June, 2015
Report: AT&T will accept net neutrality if it gets DirecTV
June, 2015
Upfront 2015: Major TV Networks Face Severe Pressure on Ad Prices
May, 2015
Networks Fret as Ad Dollars Flow to Digital Media
May, 2015
Advertisers to lose $6.3 Billion to Fraud in 2015
Dec., 2014
Media Agency Kickbacks. Yes, They’re Real.
March, 2015
Epic Wave of Media Reviews Comes at a Crucial Time for Media Buying
May, 2015
$25 billion in media money just went up for grabs -- and nobody can agree on why
May, 2015
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ADVERTISING DISRUPTION: WHY (NOW)?
Data is defining the
winners
New players are disrupting the status quo
Distribution models have
changed
Threat to ad dollars is forcing
change
Consumers are redefining
the rules
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4
0.40.8 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8
Daily Time Spent on Screens
Mobile
Computer
Other Connected Devices
TV
Hour
s Per
Day
7.68.2
9.0 9.4 9.6 9.9
CONVERGENCE IS REDEFIN ING CONSUMERS’ V IEWING
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source: @KPCB Emarketer 4/15
BUT CONVERGED VIEWING IS NOT ABOUT E ITHER/OR…IT ’S ABOUT
MORE.GOOD NEWS FOR TV.
TV Only TV + PC/Laptop TV + PC/Laptop + Mobile TV + PC/Laptop + Mobile + Tablet
Video Viewing Per Day
Tablet
Mobile
Computer
TV
Hou
rs P
er D
ay
4hr 19min 4hr 28min 5hr 6hr 7min
55min
40min47min
59min51min
50min
8hr 29min
6hr 50min
5hr 18min
4hr 19min
Source: Analysis of NBC broadcast content viewed by screen by discrete viewers, 2012.
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YET FRAGMENTATION IS ST ILL FORCING MARKETERS TO RETHINK TV STRATEGIES.
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Reach Build for Television Networks & ProgramsSep ‘09 vs. Sep ‘14
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80000
10
20
30
40
50
60
GRPs
Reac
h %
September 2009
September 20141990
(21.3)
2000
(16.9)
2014
(7.6)
Source: NPower Live+7 TV Data; Adults 18-49
AND INCREASINGLY THESE NEW STRATEGIES MEAN CONVERGED
STRATEGIES
Source: Videology, Q1 2015.
58% of all campaigns ran on more than one device in Q1 2015, compared to just 17% in Q1 2014.
PC, Mobile & OTT46%
PC Only40%
Mobile Only2%
PC & OTT2%
PC & Mobile10%
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The New Golden Rule for Converging World:
The One with the Gold Rules.
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DATA
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LINEAR TV
MVPDSComcastDishDirecTVVerizon FIOS, etc.
DIGITAL VIDEO
PublishersGoogleFacebookAppleAmazon, etc.
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DATA OWNERSHIP: CONNECTING TWO WORLDS
CONTENT MATTERS
WHY CONVERGENCE MATTERS?DATA-ENABLEMENT + QUALITY
CONTENT= BETTER RESULTS
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UNIT SALES RATE LIFT PENETRATION LIFT DOLLAR SALES RATE LIFT
13.6%12.4%
13.7%
6.1% 6.2% 6.4%
Data Targeted vs. Untargeted Impressions
Average Targeted Average Untargeted
10.2%
7.6%
2.7%
FEP vs. Prime vs. Other Total HH Penetration Sales Lift
32.3%
21.8% 22.5%
Sales Lift of Multi-device vs. Digital Targeting
UNITS VELOCITY (units per 100HHs)
ADDRESSABILITY WORKS CONVERGENCE DRIVES RESULTSCONTENT MATTERS
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Series1
3.50%
5.10%
5-year CAGR2015-2019
Source: eMarketer 2014-2018 ests, June 2014, based on IAB/PwC data; Videology 2019 estimates; 5-year CAGR PwC June 2015
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$2.19$2.06
$3.18
$2.21
$2.66$2.52
$1.76 $1.81 $1.68 $1.67$1.59
$1.27
Incremental Annual Spend Increases: US TV vs. Digital Video
TV Digital Video
Converged TV/Video
Total Advertising
SPENDING FOLLOWS RESULTS 5 YEAR VIEW: TV REMAINS KEY CONTRIBUTOR TO CONVERGING MARKET
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Andrew FeigensonManaging DirectorNielsen Digital
Brian WieserSenior AnalystPivotal Research Group
Kris MagelChief Investment OfficerInitiative U.S./Interpublic Group
Melissa RobertsGM/ Enterprise SolutionsFreeWheel
Scott [email protected]
WHAT DO THE EXPERTS THINK…