Catherine Millington

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, 2008-09

Overview• Survey methodology

• Estimating victimisation– National Indicator 30: Reduce overall crime

victimisation rates by 2 percentage points by 2011

• Perceptions of crime– National Indicator 35: Increase positive public

perception of the general crime rate in the local area

• Police and criminal justice system

Survey Methodology

• Large-scale continuous survey measuring people’s experience & perceptions of crime in Scotland

• 16,003 face-to-face interviews with Scottish adults (aged 16+) in private households

Large sample size:

• More accurate measurement of less prevalent crimes e.g. serious assault

• Sub-national estimates at police force area (PFA) & community justice authority area (CJAA)

• Combining 2009/10 & 2010/11 will give LA results

• Allowed questionnaire to be split into modules, extending topic coverage while retaining reliable reporting at national level

SCJS 2008/09 - QUESTIONNAIRE STRUCTURE

Full sample module (16,000 respondents)

Main screener

Victim form

Community sentencing

Scottish criminal justice system

Split sample modules (4,000 respondents each)

• Fear of crime

• Workplace abuse

• Criminal justice system

• Insulted, pestered, intimidated

• Card and Identity fraud

• Civil justice

• Civil justice

• Safety cameras

Self completion section (asked of 16,000 respondents, completed by 10,974)

Drugs

Partner abuse and sexual victimisation

Limitations of the SCJS• Coverage - excludes businesses, those under

16yrs, those living in institutions, e.g. student accommodation, ‘victimless’ crimes, e.g. speeding

• Respondent recall error

• Sampling error – to indicate the extent, key results presented with their calculated confidence intervals. These are bands within which there is confidence that the ‘true’ value lies 95 % of the time.

Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime

• 1.04 million crimes in Scotland from SCJS 08/09

• The same as in 2005/06• 0.73 million property crimes (70% of

crime) involving theft or damage to personal or household property;

• 0.32 million violent crimes of assault or robbery (30% of crime).

Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime

Vandalism35%

Other h'hold theft (inc cycles)

17%

Assault28%

Housebreaking2%

Personal theft (excl robbery)

9%

Robbery2%

All motor vehicle theft7%

PROPERTY CRIME(70%)

VIOLENT CRIME(30%)

34%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Est

imat

es o

f cr

ime

Vandalism Other h'hold theft (inc cycles) All motor vehicle theft

Housebreaking Personal theft (excl robbery) Assault

Robbery

Estimating victimisation - the extent of crime over time

Estimating victimisation National Indicator 30: Reduce overall crime victimisation

rates by 2 percentage points by 2011

• The proportion of Scottish adults who were the victim of one or more crime is 20.4%– this compares with 21.3% in 2005/06 (decrease 0.9%)– performance is “maintaining”

• Although the last year on year change was not statistically significant it was part of a steady downward trend in the victimisation rate since the early 90s.

Varying risk of crime – population characteristics

1926

2936

10

2532

2021

20

20

0 10 20 30 40

Rest of Scotland

15% most deprived

Female 16-24

Male 16-24

60+

45-59

25-44

16-24

Female

Male

Total

% of adults who were the victim of one or more crime

Varying risk of crime -Crime types

0.4

4

2

0.3

9

18

0.8

4

5

0 5 10 15 20

Robbery

Assault

VIOLENT CRIME

Personal theft

Housebreaking

All motor vehicle theft

Other household theft

Vandalism

PROPERTY CRIME

% of adults/households who were the victim of one or more crime

Comparison with England & Wales

• The risk of being a victim of crime:– Scotland: 20.4% (SCJS 2008/09) – E&W: 23% (BCS 2008/09)

• The risk of being a victim of violent crime:– Scotland: 4.1%– E&W: 3.2%

• The proportion of crime– Scotland: 30% of crime is violent crime– E&W: 20% of crime is violent crime

Violent crime, alcohol & weapons

• In 58% of violent crime the victim thought the perpetrator was under the influence of alcohol

• In 29% of violent crime the victim was under the influence of alcohol

• A weapon was used (or threatened to be used) in 28% of violent crimes

• 1/3 of these weapons were knives• 1/4 were bottles

Was what happened a crime?

24

19

57

12

18

69

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Just somethingthat happens

Wrong but not acrime

A crime

Property crime

Violent crime

% of crime

Reported to the police?

• An estimated 38% of crime is reported to the police

• Most common reasons for unreported crime:– 41% too trivial / not worth reporting– 29% police could not have done anything – 16% police would not have bothered or been

interested

National Indicator 35: Increase positive public perception of the general crime rate in the local area

• 69% of adults perceived the general crime rate in their local area to have stayed the same or reduced in the past 2 years– this compares with 65% in 2005/06– performance is “improving”

• Fewer adults (28%) thought that the crime rate in their area had increased over the last two years – this compares with 32% in 2005/06

Perceptions of crime

0

1

2

2

3

4

3

7

8

17

13

3

6

8

12

15

15

17

20

25

29

33

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

People being sexually assaulted

People being physically attacked because of their skincolour etc

People being mugged or robbed

People having their car or other vehicles stolen

People's homes being broken into

People being physically assaulted or attacked in thestreet or other public places

People having things stolen from their car or othervehicles

Violence between groups of individuals or gangs

Deliberate damage to property or vehicles

Drug dealing and drug abuse

People behaving in an anti-social manner in public

% of adults answering module A

Very Common Fairly common

How common are crimes in your local area?

70

33

34

17

8

1

3

49

64

29

19

6

8

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Other people talking about it

I have seen it happening

Local newspaper/ local radio news and documentaries

Experience of someone you know

National newspapers/ radio/TV news and documentaries

It has happened to me

Information direct from the local police

% of adults answering module A who think a certain crime is common

Drug dealing and drug abuse People behaving in an antisocial manner in public

How are these impressions formed?

Perceived risk ‘vs’ actual risk

2.8

2.1

3.9

0.4

3.8

0.9

6.3

5

6

6

6

7

9

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Vehicle will be stolen

Theft from vehicle

Vandalism to home

Mugged or robbed

Physically assaulted

Home will be broken into

Vandalism to vehicle

Perceived risk

Actual risk

% of adults

Do the police in your area do a good job?

5

11

17

47

14

0 10 20 30 40 50

Very poor

Fairly poor

Neither good norpoor

Fairly good

Very good

% of adults

Confidence in the police:

Other topics from the survey

Injuries sustained through violent crime

Attitudes to sentencing

Monetary impacts of crime

Civil justice

Workplace abuse

Emotional responses to

crime

Safety cameras

Card and identity fraud

Community sentencing

To view• SCJS 2008-2009 Reports, including - First findings, Partner

abuse, Sexual victimisation, Illegal drug use & Technical report• SCJS 2008-2009 Data tables and regional resultsPlease see the following website:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Research/by-topic/crime-and-justice/crime-and-justice-survey/publications

• Full data sets are available to download on the UK Data Archive:

http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/findingData/scsTitles.asp

Thank you, Questions?

Catherine.Millington@scotland.gsi.gov.uk