sdal molfino, emily mapping conflict onto insfrastructure
TRANSCRIPT
Mapping Conflict onto Infrastructure: A study ofpost-conflict reconstruction
Emily Molfino
SCHOOL OF POLITICS AND GLOBAL STUDIES
* Do not cite or circulate without author permission *
Introduction Theory Methods Results Ethiopia Conclusion Extras References
Post-Conflict Infrastructure and Reconstruction
What is the relationship between infrastructure and conflict risk duringpost-conflict reconstruction?
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Infrastructure Stability Theory
Short-term consequences (first order)Conflict increases after infrastructure provision (short-term goals)Infrastructure as a private good (Lichbach, 1987; Bueno de Mesquita andDown, 2005; Bueno de Mesquita et al., 2003)The populace reacts to this provision or non-provision—support/resent,mobilization, intermingling (Francisco, 1995; DeNardo, 1985; Gates,2002; Mason and Krane, 1989; Van Evera, 2001; Gompert et al., 2009)
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Infrastructure Stability Theory
Long-term consequences (second order)Conflict can decrease as time passes (long-term goals/grievances)Infrastructure as part of a larger socio-technical system (infrastructurecontinuously interacts with power structures and the public at large)(Jasanoff, 2003)Connects areas physically to the political core, nation’s economy, andnational identityClash between the goals of the state with the goals of a group—conflictgroups exploit infrastructure’s socio-technical system (Habyarimana et al.,2007) or learn new ideational grievances by promoting physical andpsychological ethnic separations (Van Evera, 2001)
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Hypotheses
H1: Conflict risks after infrastructure provision follows an inverted Upattern where conflict risks spike after provision and then drops as timepasses.
H2: If the lack of infrastructure cut peripheries from the core, there willbe an increased probability of conflict.
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Methods
Cases: 33 post-conflict cases where reconstruction was needed fromaround the globe.
Unit of analysis: the PRIO grid (55 x 55 km) (Tollefsen et al., 2012)
Quadratic Time Trend: 10 years starting from the year conflict endstransformed into orthogonal measureData
IVs: Road density, power plant proximity, aeronautical proximity, andpresence of railwaysDV: Dichotomous measure if grid was in a conflict zone (Conflict Sitecoding v.3: conf) (Gleditsch et al., 2002; Themner and Wallensteen, 2002)Controls for political, social, economic, and terrain characteristicsGeneralized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with case-level randomintercept.
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PRIO Grid
[
[
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
[
[
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
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Infrastructure Data Description
Roads:Density measureEach density cell represented 10 square kmSearch radius was set at 30 square km
Power Plants:Density measureEach density cell represented 10 square kmSearch radius was set at 250 square km
Aeronautical:Density measureEach density cell represented 10 square kmSearch radius was set at 250 square km
Rail Roads:Dichotomous measure on the presence of rail infrastructure
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Airport Density
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Power Plant Density
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Railroad Density
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Road Density
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Methods
Cases: 33 post-conflict cases where reconstruction was needed fromaround the globe.
Unit of analysis: the PRIO grid (55 x 55 km) (Tollefsen et al., 2012)
Quadratic Time Trend: 10 years starting from the year conflict endstransformed into orthogonal measureData
IVs: Road density, power plant proximity, aeronautical proximity, andpresence of railwaysDV: Dichotomous measure if grid was in a conflict zone (Conflict Sitecoding v.3: conf) (Gleditsch et al., 2002; Themner and Wallensteen, 2002)Controls for political, social, economic, and terrain characteristicsGeneralized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with case-level randomintercept.
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Model Results
Condensed ModelRandom Effect
Case (Intercept) 4.39 (2.10)
Fixed Effects(Intercept) -3.69 (0.41) ***
Aero Proximity -0.75 (-0.16) ***Rail Presence 0.12 (0.04) **
Power Proximity 1.75 (0.11) ***Road Density 0.06 (0.00) ***Linear Wave -0.56 (0.05) ***
Quadratic Wave 2.02 (0.09) ***Aero Proximity : Quadratic Year 1.73 (0.43) ***
Rail Presence : Quadratic Year -1.09 (0.11) ***Power Proximity : Quadratic Year 1.37 (0.23) ***
Road Density : Quadratic Year -0.13 (0.01) ***AIC 34522.70BIC 34754.14
Standard errors listed in parentheses.Number of observations: 173,237Number of Groups: 33Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
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Change in Predicted Probabilities from Min to Max Infrastructure Level
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Interaction Effects with Quadratic Time
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Ethiopia
Ethiopia
Sudan
Somalia
Yemen
Kenya
Eritrea
Uganda
Djibouti
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Infrastructure in Ethiopia
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Sodo
Dese
Badme
Adama
Awasa
Jimma
Asmara
Werder
Semera
Jijiga
Gonder
Gambela
Mek'ele
Bahir Dar
Debre Zeyit
Djibouti Port
SomaliOromia
Afar
Amhara
SNNP
Tigray
Gambela
Benshangul-Gumaz
Dire Dawa
HarariAddis Ababa
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LegendRegions
Lake
! Major City
[ Capital
Population Density
High Low
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Infrastructure in Ethiopia
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LegendRegions
Lake
Major Transmission Lines
a Power Plants
Note: Infrastructure listed are as of 2008.
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Infrastructure in Ethiopia
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LegendRegions
Lake
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Railways
Note: Infrastructure listed are as of 2008.
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Infrastructure in Ethiopia
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LegendRegions
Lake
Roads
Trunk
Highway
Note: Infrastructure listed are as of 2008.
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All-Weather Rural Road
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Typical Rural Road
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Jan Amora
Somali
Oromia
SNNP
Amhara
Tigray
Oromia
Afar
Amhara
Tigray
Gambela
Benshangul-Gumaz
Dire Dawa
HarariAddis Ababa
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Debark
Jan Amora
Amhara
Tigray
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LegendRegions
Simien National Park
Trunk
Highway
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Jan Amora
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Debark
Jan Amora
Amhara
Tigray
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LegendRegions
Simien National Park
Trunk
Highway
NGOs in the area increasedfrom 1 to 7
2 new schools; schooling rateincreased from 13% to 22%
200 to 300 public employees
Households using familyplanning from 0 to 6%
Businesses improved andrevenue from taxes increased
Increase in HIV infections
Lack of capacity building
Deforestation and illegalfarming increased
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Afar Regions
Somali
Oromia
SNNP
Amhara
Tigray
Oromia
Afar
Amhara
Tigray
Gambela
Benshangul-Gumaz
Dire Dawa
HarariAddis Ababa
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Oromia
Semera
Jijiga
Djibouti Port
Afar
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Legend
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[ Capital
Trunk
Highway
Regions
Afar
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Conflict Events 1991-2
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Conflict Events 1993-4
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Conflict Events 1995-6
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Conflict Events 1997-8
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Conflict Events 1999-2000
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Conclusion and Policy Implications
Infrastructure’s intrinsic long-term qualities must be accounted for.
Where research on the influence of different types of infrastructure isneeded, infrastructure’s mixed influences on conflict needs to beunderstood together—infrastructure does not exist independently ofother infrastructure.
Reconstruction and foreign aid ‘success’ is more than just about projectnumbers (technological fixes).
Goal of infrastructure reconstruction needs to be clear: reconstruction asan extension of political strategy, which requires better connectinginfrastructure rebuilding to the greater goal of democratization (Office ofthe Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, 2009)
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Future Research
Urban and Rural Development/Smart Cities
National Infrastructure SystemsGeo-coded Big Data
How to incorporate with existing dataInnovative ways to operationalize political and social variables
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Conclusion
Thank you
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Road in East Amhara
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IST
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Cases
Table : Cases for Longitudinal Study
Location (abbr.) Years Grids per Year Location (abbr.) Years Grids per Year
Afghanistan (AF) 2001—2008 19 Iraq (IQ3) 2003—2008 8Angola (AO) 2002—2008 478 Israel (IL) 1996—2005 15Azerbaijan (AZ) 1994—2003 49 Liberia (LR) 1995—2004 28Bangladesh (BD) 1992—2001 73 Myanmar (MM) 1992—2001 245Bosnia & Herzegovina (BA) 1995—2004 36 Nepal (NP) 2006—2008 29Chad (TD) 1994—2003 205 Peru (PE) 1999—2008 400Croatia (HR) 1995—2004 40 Russia (RU) 1996—2005 11,991Ethiopia (ET1) 1991—2000 379 Rwanda (RW) 2002—2008 5Ethiopia (ET2) 2001—2008 379 Serbia (RS) 1999—2008 19Guatemala(GT) 1995—2004 46 Somalia (SO) 1986—1995 1India (IN1) 1997—2002 793 Sierra Leone (SL) 2000—2008 35India (IN2) 2003—2008 793 Sri Lanka (LK) 2001—2008 35Indonesia (ID1) 1989—1998 1045 Tajikistan (TJ) 1996—2005 31Indonesia (ID2) 2005—2008 1045 Uganda (UG) 2007—2008 53Iran (IR) 1996—2005 377 United Kingdom (UK) 1991—2000 211Iraq (IQ1) 1991—1995 8 Yemen (YE) 1994—2003 26Iraq (IQ2) 1996—2002 8Time covered is 10 years from the year conflict ended or is cut short to the year beforethe next conflict in that case begins or 2008, whichever comes first.Data comes from UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, v.4(Gleditsch et al., 2002; Themner and Wallensteen, 2002)
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PRIO Grid
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Infrastructure Data Sources
Roads:
Global Roads Open Access Data Set, version 1 (gROADS)
Power Plants:
Davis et al. (2012) and Global Energy Observatory (2013)
Rail Roads:
United States and Defense Mapping Agency (1992).
Aeronautical:
United States and Defense Mapping Agency (1992).
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All Models
Table : Full Model ResultsReduced Model Control Model Full Model
Random EffectCase (Intercept) 6.06 (2.46) 3.87 (1.84) 4.39 (2.10)
Fixed Effects(Intercept) -3.52 (0.44) *** -3.10 (.36) *** -3.69 (0.41) ***
Aero Proximity -0.48 (-0.16) ** -0.75 (-0.16) ***Rail Presence 0.26 (0.04) *** 0.12 (0.04) **
Power Proximity 2.39 (0.10) *** 1.75 (0.11) ***Road Density 0.09 (0.00) *** 0.06 (0.00) ***Linear Wave -0.51 (0.05) *** -0.45 (0.51) *** -0.56 (.05) ***
Quadratic Wave 1.88 (0.09) *** 1.33 (0.05) *** 2.02 (0.09) ***Disjointed -3.29 (0.99) *** -3.32 (1.13) **
Capital Distance -0.00 (0.00) *** -0.00 (0.00) **Drug 0.34 (0.04) *** 0.33 (0.05) ***
Mining -0.12 (0.10) -0.25 (0.10) *Oil 0.30 (0.04) *** 0.35 (0.04) ***
Mountainous -0.04 (0.04) 0.00 (0.05) .Forested -0.00 (0.00) *** -0.00 (0.00) ***
Political Status 0.02 (0.04) -0.05 (0.04)Never Autonomous -0.14 (0.03) *** -0.04 (0.04)
GCPPC 0.00 (0.00) *** 0.00 (0.00) ***Pop Density -0.00 (0.00) *** -0.00 (0.00) ***
Aero Proximity : Quadratic Year 2.22 (0.43) *** 1.73 (0.43) ***Rail Presence : Quadratic Year -1.13 (0.11) *** -1.09 (0.11) ***
Power Proximity : Quadratic Year 1.49 (0.23) *** 1.37 (0.23) ***Road Density : Quadratic Year -0.13 (0.01) *** -0.13 (0.01) ***
AIC 35086.61 35555.66 34522.70BIC 35207.36 35706.59 34754.14
Standard errors listed in parentheses.Number of observations: 173,237Number of Groups: 33Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
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Mean Proportion of Conflict Presence
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Model Residuals
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Random Effect
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Conflict Events 2001-2
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Conflict Events 2003-4
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Conflict Events 2005-6
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Conflict Events 2007-8
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ISIS
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Chad Infrastructure
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Chad Conflict
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LKA Power Plants
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LKA Road Network
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LKA Railways
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LKA Airports
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