seabury introduction maritime cargo advisory

Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011

More insight, better decisions….

Seabury Maritime Cargo Advisory

1Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2011

Agenda

Seabury Cargo Advisory

Global ocean database

Sample graphs related to the maritime industry


Introduction Seabury Group

Founded in 1995, Seabury provides management

consulting, investment banking and corporate reorganization

advisory services

Seabury has a vast range of expertise in:

- Strategy consulting and business planning

- Operational improvement (e.g., cost reduction, revenue

boosting, contract negotiations & outsourcing)

- Network and alliance optimization; fleet selection,

acquisition and financing in the aviation industry

- Investment and recapitalization

With significant market share, Seabury is the main

aviation restructuring advisor and an important factor in

strategic (M&A) and financing activities

Seabury is a leading consulting firm in the air cargo

industry with a dedicated team and dozens of industry leaders

among its client base

Seabury Maritime Advisors is a global merchant banking

and advisory firm providing expert investment banking, M&A,

recapitalization / restructuring and strategic advisory services

Together with senior executives from the maritime

industry, a best-in-class ocean database has been developed

and tested

With over 175 professionals, Seabury Group is one of the largest global advisory practice in

the aviation industry

Cargo &

Logistics

Fleet &

Network

(Air)ports &

Ancillary

Businesses

Maintenance,

Repair &

Overhaul

Investors &

Financiers

Seabury

Group

Commercial &

Revenue

Management


What makes Seabury different?A single industry focus with a unique combination of expertise

Focused strategy

consultants

Comprised

predominantly of staff

from leading strategy

consulting firms

Innovative thinking

and rigorous analytics

to develop pragmatic

solutions

Extensive strategic

and operational

experience with

excellent project

management skills

Leading cargo

specialists

Former airline cargo

staff and experts from

specialist consulting

companies

Fully focused and

industry-experienced

teams that hit the

ground running

Knowledge of local

markets globally and

experience with a

wide range of

business models

Former industry

executives

Industry leaders from

major airlines and

suppliers

Deep understanding of

challenges presented

by significant

operational change

Sensitivity to the

complexity of an

organization

Experienced

investment bankers

Advisors from top-tier

financial institutions

Extensive knowledge

of domestic and

foreign strategic

situations

Experience with debt

and equity capital

markets


Key reasons to work with SeaburySeabury combines leading cargo databases, strong strategy consulting, and extensive

experience in long-term forecasting and strategy development

With over 200 professionals, Seabury is one of the largest global advisory practice

dedicated to the transportation industry

We have dedicated cargo & logistics division, led by professionals with decades of

hands-on industry management and consulting experience

Our consulting is underpinned by the world’s leading industry databases, including

comprehensive air and sea cargo demand and supply databases and forecasts

We have extensive experience performing long-term forecasts, scenario analysis and

strategy development for carriers, ports and forwarders around the world

Seabury is a strategic advisory firm, not just a market research provider

Why work with Seabury?

A

B

C

D

E


Agenda





Global Ocean DatabaseSeabury’s Ocean Database provides all relevant indicators for the maritime industry

*Seabury forecast

Source: Seabury Global Ocean Database

Covering worldwide ocean flows…

…with an exceptional high level of data granularity

Global perishable shipments

Seasonality of Aircos and Christmas articles from

Guangzhou to Europe

TEU (K)

Extensive coverage High granularity

Imports and exports of 200

countries, covering ~95% of

international ocean trade

World ocean trade separated

in containerized and non-

containerized (bulk/liquid)

trade, measured in weight,

value and number of ocean

TEU per trade lane

Drill-down available to 2,000

individual commodities

Proprietary classification of

2,000 commodities in 70

industries and 12 sectors

Extensive and historical yearly

data available from 2000

(availability depends on

reporting country)

Ocean weights (tonnage) have

been converted into TEU

based on:

Specific stuffing factors for all

2000 commodities

Stuffing factors per container

type 20’ and 40’

Equipment (20’/40’ split) per

commodity per trade lane

Containerization ratio (split

between container, dry bulk,

liquid) based on:

Exact containerization

percentages for all 2000

commodity types

Specification of

containerization split per trade

lane

Tons (M)

5%

15%

0%

80

40

120

0

10*0908070605040302

-5%

10%

YoY growth

Containerized

Bulk

Containerized growth

200920082007

4

3

2

1

0

2010

AircosChristmas articles


What makes Seabury’s Databases unique?The combination of the below features result in the most comprehensive and reliable trade

database currently available in the market

Online access to data

analysis tool (via Cognos

software)

Data can be distributed in

every regular database

format

User-friendly

The data filtering

options allowing

multiple types of

analysis

Extensive

Global coverage of air and

ocean data

Details per country,

commodity or industry per

month

Comparing and

investing in regional

data sources is not

necessary anymore

Reliable

Usage of multiple raw

data sources (allowing

cross- checking of data)

Comprehensive

methodology for data

cleaning and processing

Up-to-date

Monthly data releases

with a minimal delay

For China, Europe and

US the delay is only 4 to

6 weeks

Examine the latest

trade developments

on a monthly basis

High quality data in

weight, value and

TEU


Our data can support your businessSeabury's databases will give clients in the logistic arena more insight to make better

commercial and strategic decisions, such as…

Current share of worldwide market and individual trade lanes

Identify and target potential segments or regions

Support of contract / tender negotiations

Sales &

Marketing

Determine future market size in tons, total value carried and TEU

Focus on niche commodities or countries

Invest in terminals, logistic or port facilities

Strategy

Development

Manage volatile market situations

Anticipate on air - sea shift developments within commodity groups

Forecast equipment and trade imbalances

Business

Planning

Reefer product development and marketing

Assess Break-bulk conversion opportunities

Development of specific market combinations (e.g. Oil & Gas)

Product

Development

Theme Examples of decision criteria

Optimize equipment (re)usage

Support of hub developments, feeder services, and inland networks

Optimal vessel size, type and service rotation

Operations

Development


Added value of Seabury’s ocean trade intelligence Seabury’s maritime databases do not only assist with determining market share but more

importantly with the next steps (the implementation stage) in strategic planning

• Determine which African

countries to focus on

• Select which

commodities/industries to

focus on

• Determine the desired

network coverage

Where are we now?

Seabury Market

Intelligence

Organizational

task

Where do we want to be?

How do we get there?

How do we measure progress?

• Does our volumes grow

faster than the

country/market growth?

• Revenue / volume

performance

• Are we responding to the

latest developments in the

market?

• Determine market size per

country (not per port)

• Calculate industry sector

performance (eg. chemicals

or automotive)

• Compare multiple years

(historically)

• Study an individual market

for discussion with sales

teams/country management

• Find concrete examples to

build business cases for

planning and investment

• Create first-mover

advantages

• Combine market figures with

performance

• Continuous analysis of the

latest trade data to signal

trends

Strategic planning process

• In which areas regions are

we strong?*

• In which industries do we

perform above market

average?

• How is our performance

compared to competition?

Company wishes to increase

its presence in the African

market

Continuously measuring

performance and targets

Organization is currently

focusing on the large trades

• Calculate fastest growing

countries in last 5 years

• Assess drivers behind

growth. Consumer goods?

Raw Materials, Construction

materials

• Determine whether growth is

sustainable or temporary

1 2 3 4

* Organizational task where Seabury’s Market Intelligence can provide more insights

• Steer sales force

(campaign management)

• Make the right Investment

decisions

• Grow faster than market

• Improve country coverage

Increasing presence in East

Africa would improve its

position in Africa


How to Log-inOnline analysis tool from Cognos is the leading Business Intelligence software provider

Cognos online login


Agenda





The growing importance/dependence of Europe on China

03

41%

06

46%

38%

04 0502

32%

01

43%

35%

28%

15

14

0

09 10 12 13

43%

1108

20

44%

TEU

(million)

45%

07 10*

43%

44%

10

5

43%

Imports from China

Imports from rest of the world

TEU

(million)

10*

14%

08

12%

8%

10

11

19%13%

21%

02

19%

05 1001

11%

1204 13 14

5

10%

07 09

15

18%

03

0

20%14%

20

06

16%

Exports to China

Exports to Rest of the world

80%

200%

Seabury Forecast

Yearly European imports Yearly European exports

The share of European imports from China will approach the 50% in upcoming 5 years. The European

export share to China grows faster than imports but the impact is smaller

Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database, Seabury’s global ocean forecast

21%

7%

47%

26%

Seabury ActualsSeabury ForecastSeabury Actuals

* Actual 2010 (YTD September)


North East Asia exports to EU South East Asia exports to US

Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database

0,0

Japan

-32%

-7%

-13%

TaiwanKorea S

-9%

China

+ HKG

TEU

(million)

0,4

0,2

5,0

5,2

4,8

4,6

4,4

4,2

4,0

2010 YTD Sep

2009 YTD Sep

2008 YTD Sep

Asian exports: several countries approach the 2008 levels,

Vietnam is fastest growing export country in the region

TEU

(x 1,000)

5

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Cambodia

janjanjanjan oct

2007 2008 2009 2010


Seasonality of Vietnam exports to EUThe peak for Vietnam exports lies in Q1 which make these volumes good alternative to

replace the lower volumes from China due to Chinese Lunar festival


a

Construction

materials

Fish, Frozen

j

Footwear &

Clothing

Coffee & tea

TEU

(x 1,000)

20

0

35

10

15

25

30

5Other

m jfjdnosajjmamfjdnosajjmamfjdn

Tableware

sajjmam oj am

Furniture

Packaging goods

(plastic bags)

sf

+7%

2007 2008 2009 2010


Chinese exports to India: Industries

Chinese monthly containerized exports to India

Source: Seabury’s China Ocean Database

The Chinese export share of consumer goods increased rapidly in last 7 quarters

High Technology

Consumer personal &

Household goods

Machinery parts

Sep2009

30%30%

26%

26%

15%

2010

Land Vehicles & Parts

Consumer Fashion Goods

Capital Equipment & Machinery

Chemicals & Products

Raw Materials

21%

2008

50

20

40

10

0

30

TEU

(x 1,000)


Steady containerized perishable trade growth expected

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

YoY growth

201020092008

other cargo

perishable cargo

European containerized import growth for

perishables and other cargo

Conventional versus containerized reefer trade

60

06 14

30%

05 13

Ocean weight

(million tons)

04 1207

80

20

40

120

140

1103

0

100

54%

0800 0901 1002

Seabury forecastSeabury actuals

Containerized reefer trade

Conventional reefer trade

Perishable trade is less susceptible for economic downturn. Conversion from conventional

reefer trade will continue

Source: Seabury’s China Ocean Database


Middle East growth analyzed by commoditiesLooking at the commodity mix per region helps us in finding the drivers behind growth and

forecasting future trade


USA

30%

59%

41%

87%

Gulf

17%

Other

goods

Consumer

goods

South

East

Asia

90%

10%

North

East

Asia\

13%

91%

Europe

9%

83%

Middle

East &

South

Asia

70%

19%

81%

Global

Share of consumer goods per destination

region in 2009

30

2010

Consumer

goods

Automotive

Raw

materials

20

10

0

Other

2009

10

0

20

20102009

Other

Raw

materials

Automotive

Consumer

goods30

Saudi Arabia export growth in 2010 mainly

driven on raw materials (contrary to UAE exports)

United Arab Emirates export commodities

Saudi Arabia export commoditiesTEU

(x 1,000)

TEU

(x 1,000)


Contact detailsFor more information, please contact…

Mathijs Slangen

Senior Analyst


E-mail: [email protected]

Cell: +31 6 1585 6951

Phone: +31 20 880 4224

Fax: +31 20 890 8620

Website: www.seaburygroup.com


Seabury Maritime in the news

Lloyd’s List (Nov 2009): “ New Global database for box trades”

Lloyd’s List (Nov 2009): “Refrigerated box volumes drop 2.5%”

Containerization International (Nov 2009): “On a knife edge”

IFW (Jan 2010): “Seabury launches sea freight intelligence tool”

Lloyd’s List (March 2010): “China gets appetite for containerized imports”

IFW (March 2010): “China's box trade gap narrows”

Global Liner Conference (March 2010): “What cargo growth lies ahead up to the end of 2011”

Cargo new Asia (April 2010): “Modest recovery for box trades”

Lloyds List (April 2010): “The long and slow road to recovery”

Containerization International (April 2010): “Seabury optimistic about trade growth”

JOC (April 2010) : “Analyst Forecasts 11 Percent Ocean Trade Growth”

Cargo news Asia (May 2010): “Region did better than traditional markets”

TOC Conference (June 2010): ”What’s in the box for the Med region?”

TOC Conference (June 2010): ”Delivering China”

Lloyds List (August 2010): “Going for Growth”

Cool Logistics Conference (September 2010): “Air freight and ocean freight capacity analysis”

Lloyds List (October 2010): “Mapping the scale of vast expansion”

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