Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair

David Alukonis

William H. Dunlap

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

Richard Ober

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Michael Whitney

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Todd I. Selig

Kimon S. Zachos

Directors Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Searching for an Economic Recovery

Lakes Region Planning Commission

Monday, September 30, 2013

Labor Markets

Hospital Service Areas

Tourist Regions

Watersheds

Housing Markets

What is New Hampshire

Lakes Region has about 10% of NH residents

Population 2011

28,95051,174

124,874

99,175

134,976

295,221

93,999

261,249

226,293

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

If you live in the Lakes Region, you work here.

% of workers commuting to out of state jobs

6.5% 7.0%

3.3%

9.5%

13.3%

19.1%

4.2%

13.1%

30.7%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

Lakes Region relies on Manufacturing

Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2011)

9.0% 9.7%

14.3% 13.3%

18.3%

12.8%

8.5%

12.3%

27.5%

14.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whi

te M

ount

ains R

egio

n

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Total

New H

amps

hire

Lakes Region also relies on Tourism

Accomodation and Food Services as a share of all Wages (2011)

6.4%

10.1%

5.9%

2.6% 2.8%3.5%

2.3% 2.6% 2.2%3.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Total

New H

amps

hire

Lakes Region is 2nd in % Seasonal Homes

Seasonal Homes as % of Total

22.9%

36.8%

30.9%

11.9%

9.0%

6.0%

1.6% 0.8% 1.2%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Lakes Region Highest Property Value per Capita

2012 Property Value per Person

$71,971

$164,556

$182,650

$131,691

$92,467

$126,414

$92,365 $92,598

$111,021

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Above NH average Property Crime in Lakes Region

Property Crime Rate in Largest Town/City

1,629.6

4,127.2

4,683.2

3,380.2 3,459.9 3,350.0

3,012.8

3,822.9

2,459.4

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Merrimack Valley Region

Lakes Region Educational Attainment close to average

Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher

14.7%

26.9%28.4%

36.5%

31.1%

35.1% 35.0%

31.4%

37.6%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Lakes Region Social Need is Above State AveragePercent of persons in Poverty (2007-2011)

13.7%

10.7% 10.6%

8.9% 8.7%7.7% 7.5%

8.1%

5.1%

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

• Percentage of the Population with a BA or better

• 2010 Median HH Income• Poverty Rate• Households with Food

Stamps• Medicaid Members as a %

per Pop• Low to Moderate Income Pct• Elementary Per Pupil

Expenditures 2009/10• 2011 Actual Property Tax

Rate• Voter Participation (%) in the

Last Election• Poverty Under 18• Poverty 65 plus• 2011 High School graduation

rate

The Geography of Need

Lakes Region IncomesAverage Household Income (2007-2011)

$50,818

$61,736

$68,845$75,199 $73,166

$86,362$80,813

$84,879

$94,960

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Lakes Region WagesAverage Weekly Wage (2011)

$606.38 $620.31$698.50

$981.02

$779.66

$884.54$845.89

$918.46

$1,089.00

Great

Nor

th W

oods

Whit

e M

ount

ains R

egion

Lake

s Reg

ion

Dartm

outh

/Lak

e Sun

apee

Reg

ion

Mon

adno

ck R

egion

Seaco

ast R

egion

Great

er C

onco

rd

Great

er M

anch

este

r

Great

er N

ashu

a

Anecdotal evidence from the Fed Bank of Boston, July 17, 2013

• Economic activity in New England continues to expand at a moderate pace, according to business contacts.

• Retailers, tourism contacts, manufacturers and consulting and advertising contacts all report modest increases in sales.

• Commercial real estate conditions are improving or holding steady, depending on location.

• Residential real estate contacts report increases in both house prices and sales.

• Overall prices are rising at a modest pace, generally in line with cost increases.

• Most businesses are holding employment steady, with substantial staffing changes only at firms experiencing significant increases or decreases in sales.

• Contacts generally expect the recent trend of moderate growth to continue.

Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face:

NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery

Index of Total NonFarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)

92.0

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-0

9

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-1

0

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-1

1

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-1

2

Jan-

13

Dec

200

7 =

100

US NE NH

New England

United States

New Hampshire

Migration slowed in last decade

Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

A Few Thoughts on Demographics = Destiny

Growth in the past driven by high rates of migration. Percent Change in NH Population

8.5%

13.8%

21.5%

24.8%

20.5%

11.4%

6.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

U.S. Census figures released in December show that the 2000s saw the slowest rate of population growth in New Hampshire in six decades. Later this year, the Census Bureau will release specific population figures for counties and communities. What will those numbers tell us about the state’s demographic patterns over the past decade?

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

NH Population forecasts revised down

New Hampshire Population Forecasts

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OEP11/06

RPC05/13

Total NH Population

NH Population forecasts revised down, especially for 0-19 yr olds

New Hampshire School Age (0 to 19) Population Forecasts

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OEP11/06

RPC05/13

NH School Age Population

23

The new 60? Significant future growth of the population 75 - 79

Change in the NH Population Over the Age of 65 - 2010 to 2030

46,572

55,911

43,012

29,437

21,464

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 +

Declining Number of Teens and Twenty Year Olds

15 to 29

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

New Hampshire Population Age Group

Actual Forecast

And Spending Patterns Change with Age Too.

New Hampshire Population by Selected Age Groups

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Num

ber

of R

esid

ents

25 to 49 50 to 74

Actual Forecast

Wealth Creation Crowd

Wealth Preservation Crowd

Younger groups less likely to form a household

Headship Ratios - Census Years

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 yearsand over

Total

1990

2000

2010

Belknap County, NH

Younger groups less likely to be home owners

Home Ownership - Census Years

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

15 to 24years

25 to 34years

35 to 44years

45 to 54years

55 to 64years

65 to 74years

75 yearsand over

Total

1990

2000

2010

Belknap County, NH

The increase in the Senior Population in the Lakes

Population by Age Group

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & older

History 2010 Base Year2025Lakes Region Planning Commission

Means a change in age by Ownership

Owner Households

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Under Age 65 65 & Older

History 2010 Base Year2025

Lakes Region Planning Commission

And also a change in rental demand

Renter Households

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Under Age 65 65 & Older

History 2010 Base Year2025

Lakes Region Planning Commission

In this context, what should we invest in?

• Human Capital

• Economic Creativity

• Business Base

• Costs of Business?

• Infrastructure?

• Quality of Life?

NH Rank in Public Policy Indicators

W Y

W V

W I

W A

V T

V A

U T

T X

T N

S D

S C

R I

P A

O R

O K

O H

N Y

N V

N M

N J

N H

N E

N D

N C

M T

M S

M O

M N

M I

M E

M D

M A

L A

K YK S

I NI L

I D

I A

H I

G A

F L

D E

C T

C OC A

A ZA R

A L

A K P u b l i c P o l i c y D a s h b o a r d 2 0 1 3O v e r a l l R a n k i n g

# 1 i s B e s t

1 t o 1 0

1 1 t o 2 5

2 6 t o 4 0

4 1 t o 5 0

Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and

Competitor States

State and Rank Fiscal

Educations and

Workforce RegulatoryWorkforce

Housing

Cultural and Natural Resources Energy Infrastructure Health

Business Growth and

Retention OverallNew Hampshire 17 14 22 31 2 28 27 20 7 8

Maine 31 36 42 29 10 35 33 49 31 39Massachusetts 37 1 41 41 1 20 35 16 2 5Vermont 35 32 31 32 7 24 43 22 11 26

North Carolina 33 11 14 25 16 13 18 30 27 15South Carolina 28 29 17 15 36 33 12 47 30 31Texas 8 16 28 21 45 41 10 38 23 25Virginia 11 4 20 35 9 27 15 9 29 4

NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators

NH Economic Dashboard 2013Area Indicator NH RankWFHousing Homeownership rates 2Regulatory Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added 3Cultural Percent of tree cover urban areas 3EdWorkFrc High School grad rate 4Cultural Voter turnout rate 4EdWorkFrc Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce 5EdWorkFrc Pct w/Associates+ 6EdWorkFrc Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool 6Fiscal State Business Tax Climate Index 7Fiscal Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty 7

NH Rank - Top Ten Out of 50 Indicators

But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators

NH Economic Dashboard 2013Area Indicator NH RankFiscal Top marginal corporate tax rate 38Infrastructure Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete 39WFHousing Owner costs more than 30% of Income 43Health Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009 43Fiscal State debt per $ Personal Income 45Energy Industrial Electric Prices 46GrowthReten Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop 46Regulatory Land Use Restriction 47EdWorkFrc Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010 48EdWorkFrc Average student debt 50

NH Rank - Bottom Ten Out of 50 Indicators

A Full Proof Economic Indicator

New Hampshire Boat Registrations and Payroll Employment (000's)

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

NH Boat Registrations NH Payroll Employment

New Hampshire Center for New Hampshire Center for Public Policy StudiesPublic Policy Studies

Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500

Board of DirectorsSheila T. Francoeur, Chair

David Alukonis

William H. Dunlap

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

Richard Ober

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Michael Whitney

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Todd I. Selig

Kimon S. Zachos

Directors Emeritus“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”