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Coordinating Internationally to Observe the Global Ocean for Climate
Second GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium
Sidney Thurston, Ph.D.International Coordinator, NOAA Climate Program Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA April 15, 2008Tokyo, Japan
Critical Themes• There is a lot more low frequency variability in the ocean than we'd realized and continuous
sampling for many decades is needed to get decent estimates of long term trends.
• Interannual to decadal ocean variability is going to affect society much more strongly than climate change over the next few decades. IPCC wants to have a component on decadal projection for AR5...these model runs will depend strongly on ocean initial conditions.
• Satellites simply cannot do the monitoring job of the world’s oceans. The need for in situ observations is critical. Much of the critical climate forecasting information comes from the subsurface ocean...carbon, heat, salinity, sea level contributions, overturning circulations...also things the satellites cannot monitor. The same for ecosystem and biogeochemistry variables
• The operational and climate communities have been doing Observing System Sensitivity Experiments (OSSE) work to evaluate the GCOS/UNFCCC/GEO ocean plan and present conclusions are that the plan continues to be the minimum needed, with clear cases to be made for enhancements, Engagement by new Member Nations and closer collaborations.
• One Final key point to keep in mind is that GEOSS is an “end-to-end” concept, meaning that it is not just about data, but the delivery of useful information for meaningful decision making. NOAA is adopting this approach for global ocean observations, as you will see, and we encourage others to consider ways to pursue this.
WeatherWatches, warnings, floods, hurricanes, Weather Radio...
OceanCoral reefs, tides, currents, buoys,
marine sanctuaries, estuaries, diving, spills
SatellitesReal-time imagery,
environmental, geostationary and
polar satellites
FisheriesProtecting marine mammals,
sea turtles, habitats, statistics, economics,
enforcement
ClimateEl Niño & La Niña, global
warming, drought, climate prediction, archived weather
data, paleoclimatology
ResearchEnvironmental labs, air quality, atmospheric
processes, climate andhuman interactions
CoastsCoastal services &
products, Great Lakes, coastal zone management
Charting & Navigation
Nautical & navigational charts, mapping, remote sensing, safe navigation
International Objectives
• Optimize Cost-effective resource sharing for Shiptime, instrumentation, CPU time, etc.
• Enhance Regional Capacity and Training for Socio-economic Benefits
• Eliminate Gaps and Overlap Redundancies
• Coordinate Joint Implementation
• Ensure Free, Open and Timely Access to Data
•• Climate:Climate:•• Operational Forecast Operational Forecast
CentersCenters•• International Research International Research
ProgramsPrograms•• Major Scientific Major Scientific
AssessmentsAssessments
•• System designed to meet System designed to meet climate requirements but climate requirements but also supports:also supports:•• Weather predictionWeather prediction•• Global and coastal ocean Global and coastal ocean
predictionprediction•• Marine hazards warningMarine hazards warning•• TransportationTransportation•• Marine environment and Marine environment and
ecosystem monitoringecosystem monitoring
•• Tide gauge stationsTide gauge stations•• Drifting BuoysDrifting Buoys•• Tropical Moored Tropical Moored
BuoysBuoys•• Profiling FloatsProfiling Floats•• Ships of OpportunityShips of Opportunity•• Ocean Reference Ocean Reference
StationsStations•• Ocean Carbon Ocean Carbon
NetworksNetworks
•• Arctic Observing Arctic Observing SystemSystem
•• Dedicated Ship Dedicated Ship SupportSupport
•• Data & Assimilation Data & Assimilation SubsystemsSubsystems
•• Management and Management and Product DeliveryProduct Delivery
•• Satellites (managed Satellites (managed outside of IOOS)outside of IOOS)
End User RequirementsEnd User Requirements
International PartnershipsInternational Partnershipsare Centralare Central
A global system by definition crosses A global system by definition crosses international boundaries international boundaries
NOAANOAA’’s contributions are managed in s contributions are managed in cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) Meteorology (JCOMM) ---- presently 68 nations.presently 68 nations.
All Six global in situimplementation programs are now linked internationally through WMO/IOC JCOMM coordination
The organizing framework is in place
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20042004 20052005 20062006 2008200820072007 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012
Representative milestones including international contributionsRepresentative milestones including international contributions
Tide GaugeTide GaugeStationsStations
RealReal--time Stations,time Stations,Initial GCOS SubsetInitial GCOS Subset
Surface DriftingSurface DriftingBuoysBuoys
Tropical MooredTropical MooredBuoysBuoys
Ships ofShips ofOpportunityOpportunity
Argo FloatsArgo Floats
Ocean ReferenceOcean ReferenceStationsStations
Arctic OceanArctic OceanSystemSystem
Ocean CarbonOcean CarbonNetworkNetwork
Dedicated ShipDedicated ShipTimeTime
High resolution & frequentlyHigh resolution & frequentlyrepeated lines occupiedrepeated lines occupied
Number of floatsNumber of floats
Number of mooringsNumber of moorings
Number of buoysNumber of buoys
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
Repeat Sections completed,Repeat Sections completed,one inventory per 10 yearsone inventory per 10 years
Number of observatoriesNumber of observatoriesand ocean reference stationsand ocean reference stations
Ice buoys, drifting andIce buoys, drifting andmoored stations, transectsmoored stations, transects
787787
15721572
4141 42424343
99
5959
Percent Complete Index:Percent Complete Index:Total System Total System
4848
20042004 20052005 20062006 2008200820072007 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012
4646 4477
International SystemNOAA ContributionsBase BudgetFY 10 RequestAdditional Resources Needed
1111 1414 1414
2121181824241313
Multi-Year Phased Implementation Plan (NOAA)
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20132013 20142014
20132013 20142014
2121 3838
7272 81818989 9898
5955 60 656460 66 67 68 100% RequirementCurrent Programming
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15001500
3131
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4242
882882
GoalGoal
100100
8383 8686 9191
4747
GoalGoal3/17/08
12501250
5858 6363 6767 7070 7272
123123
48484848484812941294 12581258 12501250 12501250 13751375 13751375 13751375 13751375 13751375
10001000510510
3434
9797 103103 112112 112112 115115 117117 118118 119119131131
13751375
170170
4141191916163939
19194141
19194141
19194141 4343 4343 4343 4545 4545
5151
3055305525572557
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30003000 30003000 30003000 30003000 30003000 30003000 30003000 30003000
15001500150015001500150015001500150015001500150015001500
5050 5151 5252 5555 5858 8787
3737 37373737343431312929262622222020
1515 1717
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1414
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Japan Marine-Earth Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC)
and Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC)
US and Japan Tropical US and Japan Tropical Moored BuoysMoored Buoys
US Japan Argo DeploymentsUS Japan Argo Deployments
A Schematic Diagram of the IOD Influence on the Summer Conditions in the Northern Hemisphereダイポールモードとそのテレコネクションの三角関係
IOGOOS/CLIVAR Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS)
Carbon/hydro cruise
High density XBT
Frequently repeated XBT
Enhanced XBT lines to monitor Indonesian Throughflow, inflow to western boundary, Java upwelling and 10°S thermocline ridge
Emphasis on ocean, but will provide surface met data as well
Mooring Array
Argo floats 3°x 3°Drifters 5°x 5°
~20 real-time tide gauges for IOTWS
Regional mooring arrays
Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array
Basin scale, tropical upper ocean (500 m) focus.
Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Eq. Waveguide, Thermocline ridge (5°-10°S), subtropical subduction, Java upwelling.
Does not sample western boundary currents, ITF, coastal zones.
Design supported by numerical model observing system studies.
Designed by the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/20357/01/IOP_Impl_Plan.pdf
Challenges: Ship Time
Requirements:
≥ 140 days per year to maintain full array
Must be available routinely and with regularity
Assumes 1-year mooring design lifetime and annual servicing cruises
*Actual sea days in 2006: involves more than just mooring work
India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
RV Sagar Kanya Cruise October-November 2004, 2006, 2007
National Institute for Oceanography (NIO) and NOAA-PMEL
3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring 1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E
ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addition, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring
Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions. 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Longitude (°E)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Latit
ude
(°N
)
INDIA
TAO mooringsOOS moorings
ADCP
Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°Sat 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.
Goa India, Western Indian Ocean Workshop
Overview Of MoESOverview Of MoES--NOAA Partnership NOAA Partnership for Earth Observations for Earth Observations
and Earth Sciencesand Earth Sciences•• Based on Science Drivers & Societal ApplicationsBased on Science Drivers & Societal Applications•• Broad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)Broad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
–– Purpose and ObjectivesPurpose and Objectives–– Scope of Cooperative ActivitiesScope of Cooperative Activities
•• RAMA Implementing Arrangement (IA)RAMA Implementing Arrangement (IA)–– ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities–– PrincipalsPrincipals
Deployment Plan with Ministry of Earth Sciences for 2008
IndonesiaIndonesia’’s Ministry of Marine and Fisheries s Ministry of Marine and Fisheries (DKP) and Agency for Assessment and (DKP) and Agency for Assessment and
Application of Technology (BPPT)Application of Technology (BPPT)
APEC Ocean Ministerial MEETING (AOMMAPEC Ocean Ministerial MEETING (AOMM--2) 2) Bali, Indonesia September 2005Bali, Indonesia September 2005
•• 20 APEC Ocean Ministers Met in 20 APEC Ocean Ministers Met in Kuta BaliKuta Bali
•• ““Our Coast, Our OceanOur Coast, Our Ocean…… an an Action Plan for SustainabilityAction Plan for Sustainability””
•• ““Bali Action PlanBali Action Plan””•• DKPDKP--NOAA Ministerial Bilateral NOAA Ministerial Bilateral
Discussions Discussions •• NOAANOAA--DKP Letter of Intent DKP Letter of Intent
SignedSigned
Bali Indonesia PANGEA WorkshopBali Indonesia PANGEA WorkshopJune 2006June 2006
Bandung Indonesia September 2006
•• Fisheries Applications Fisheries Applications of Ocean Dataof Ocean Data
•• Modeling and Modeling and AssimilationAssimilation
•• Bandung Institute of Bandung Institute of TechnologyTechnology
RANET Infrastructure Development Workshop RANET Infrastructure Development Workshop Bali September 2007Bali September 2007
Sea Surface TemperatureChlorophyll
NOAANOAA’’s 2008 Investment s 2008 Investment in Regional Ocean Observationsin Regional Ocean Observations
XX
XX
ATLAS Climate & DART Tsunami Moorings Indonesian Throughflow Monitoring
US/Indonesia Moorings on JCOMMOPS WebSite
South Africa Weather ServiceSouth Africa Weather Service
•• Broached Partnership Broached Partnership During IOPDuring IOP--4 in 4 in Pretoria April 2007Pretoria April 2007
•• Scoping Workshop Scoping Workshop November 2007November 2007
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300
325
350
375
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20208.03
8.08
8.13
8.18
8.23
8.28
8.33
8.38
pH
Year
CO2
Ocean AcidificationSince the beginning of the industrial age, the pH and CO2 chemistry of the oceans (ocean acidification) have been changing because of the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the oceans. These changes in pH and carbonate chemistry may have serious impacts on open ocean and coastal marine ecosystems.
Calcification rates in the tropics may decrease by 30% over the next century
Predictions of Ocean Acidification and the effects on coral reef calcification
After Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)
Coral Reefcalcification• 1765 Adequate• 2000 Marginal• 2100 Low
Observing System ChallengesObserving System ChallengesNOAA
Missions
Monitoring & Prediction
Stewardship
Programs & Services
(10’s)
Weather
Climate
Charting
Fisheries Mgmt
Homeland Security
…
Observing Parameters
(100’s)
Precipitation
Ocean Salinity
Solar Radiation
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Height
Stock Assessment
Shoreline
Aerosols
…
Observing Systems
(~100)
Observi
ng
System
s
RadarRadarBuoysBuoys
SatelliteSatellite
Multiple Dimensions of the Multiple Dimensions of the ProblemProblem
Environmental Parameters
Stak
ehol
der R
equi
rem
ents
Temporal & Geospatial Temporal & Geospatial ComplexityComplexity
Temporal Temporal CharacteristicsCharacteristics
GeospatialGeospatialCharacteristicsCharacteristics
T1
T2
T3
The NOSA Conceptual FrameworkThe NOSA Conceptual Framework
Larger System
Observing System
Data Handling System
Human
Environmental Phenomenon
Environmental Parameter
Sensing Element
Sensor
Platform / Station
part of
measures
is a
contains
characterizes
provides data to
Observation Control System
is controlled by
Location
located at
MobileFixed
is
SpaceAirGroundOcean
SpaceAirGroundOcean
Basic Service Requirement
< drives
provides data directly to
Userprovides info to
is type of
Stake-holder
has
Operator operated by
situated on
Support
supported by
Owner
owned by
Stakeholder Requirement
< drives< drives
Prospectus: Enhanced Planning and Coordination Prospectus: Enhanced Planning and Coordination of Ocean Observations are Needed for GEOSS of Ocean Observations are Needed for GEOSS
AsiaAsia--Pacific RegionPacific Region
•• Jointly Coordinate National PlansJointly Coordinate National Plans•• Assess User RequirementsAssess User Requirements•• Assess Capabilities & ResourcesAssess Capabilities & Resources•• Coordinate Applications, Assimilation and Coordinate Applications, Assimilation and
Modelling Modelling •• Coordinate and Share ResourcesCoordinate and Share Resources
““““PacificPacific--Indian Ocean Indian Ocean
Observations for ApplicationsObservations for Applications””
TIOOA(Eight Co-Chairs)
Resource Coordination
WorkingGroup
Applications ofData for SocietyWorking Group
Ocean Observations
Working Group
Capabilities Subgroup
Modelling/Assimilation
Working Group
Data ManagementWorking Group
User RequirementsSubgroup
Joint Strategic Planning
Working Group
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
•• Sustainable capacity building fosters both an increase in Sustainable capacity building fosters both an increase in observations while developing the socioobservations while developing the socio--economic applications economic applications of the dataof the data
•• We have been successful in incorporating endWe have been successful in incorporating end--toto--end end observational data and information into GEOSS. Still, the observational data and information into GEOSS. Still, the observation data being collected today is just a fraction of whaobservation data being collected today is just a fraction of what t could be available through data sharing, collaboration, and could be available through data sharing, collaboration, and leveraging each othersleveraging each others’’ investments. We need to have vision.investments. We need to have vision.
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
•• The ocean/meteorological community is already the The ocean/meteorological community is already the ambassador for enhanced integrated observing ambassador for enhanced integrated observing programs to save lives, protect property, and support programs to save lives, protect property, and support sustainable development. We must now reach beyond sustainable development. We must now reach beyond our existing networks to health, tourism, agriculture and our existing networks to health, tourism, agriculture and other ministries as ambassadors for achieving results for other ministries as ambassadors for achieving results for society across economic sectors and national boundaries. society across economic sectors and national boundaries.
•• No one country can achieve GEO benefits alone. Thus, No one country can achieve GEO benefits alone. Thus, we ask that you reach out within your own country and we ask that you reach out within your own country and with other countries to become participants in GEO.with other countries to become participants in GEO.
