section 5: adaptation to global environmental change
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EGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change Gina Ziervogel ( [email protected] ) December 2011. Section 5: Adaptation to global environmental change. This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Section 5: Adaptation to global environmental changeEGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change Gina Ziervogel ([email protected])December 2011
This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
The Good News: we can prepare!
Adaptation Responding to climate change impacts is
possible Humans can respond in anticipation Natural system can only adapt in response to
change
Mitigation Decreasing emissions
Protocols for decreasing emissions are in place More efficient energy use is possible
Supporting adaptation
Adaptation is understood to be an adjustment in the ecological, social or economic systems in response to observed or expected changes and their effects and impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts or take advantage of new opportunities
(Adger et al, 2005)
Responding to climate changeAdaptation is a process of
deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress
(Nelson et al, 2007)
Vulnerability underpins adaptation
Definition of vulnerability in the climate change context The degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.(www.ipcc.ch/pub/syrgloss.pdf )
Opportunities /challenges Vulnerability enables a focus on agency
and how people are not passive recipients of climate change People have caused it People can reduce exposure to it People can respond to the impacts
Many climate change vulnerability studies focus on the risk and not the internal capacity component of vulnerability
Vulnerability and climate change about equity…linking climate change
to uneven development concerns people…begin with the
humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio-economic groups
an integrating method…for targeting adaptation
International action needs to be developed in ways that support adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable communities
(“Unjust Water” by Action Aid. Access paper at
http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/unjust_waters.pdf )
By Sean Wilson for SEI
By Sean Wilson for SEI
Determinants of Adaptive Capacity
(Eakin and Lemos,
2006:10)
Why understand vulnerability?
By understanding vulnerability to climate change it is possible to identify priority areas for adaptation
Adaptation can then focus on Reducing exposure to the hazards Decreasing sensitivity to the hazard Increasing adaptive capacity to respond
to the hazard
Adaptation includes• Measures directly addressing climate change risks • creating a new buffer zone in an area of increasing flood
risk
• Measures addressing underlying causes of vulnerability • addressing barriers to accessing new farming
technologies such as drought resistant seeds
• Measures building adaptive capacity• strengthening the reliability of channels for sending
remittances (Eriksen et al, 2008)
Priorities for adaptationMean Trends Extremes Complex
Events
ProjectionPlan adaptation strategies and
measures:Coastal retreat
Boundeddivergence
Implementadaptationmeasures:
Water efficiency
Risk
Reducevulnerability:
Flood plainrestrictions
Reduce vulnerability, monitor,prepare:
Drought preparedness
SurpriseWorst case scenariosAdaptation failure?
Emergency preparedness
Although there may be physical drivers, adaptation is based on people and institutions
Aim of adaptation is to decrease vulnerability to climate change Should support the goals of those most
vulnerable Development is about social change and
capacity to implement change
Combining physical and social sciences
Integrating adaptation and development
More than just consideration of climate in development planning
Link to the climate science Historical trends Future scenarios
Cross-sectoral approach
Address longer time horizons As opposed to short policy horizons Environmental/social sustainability vs profit
Include bottom-up and top-down approaches Include information from those impacted About policy as well as practice
Whilst supporting short term poverty and development agendas Maintain support Urgent needs
Integrating adaptation and development…cont
Focus on opportunities to bring different stakeholders together
Recognise multiple goals Identify key climate variables, thresholds &
uncertainties Link to development priorities Identify institutional challenges
Developing adaptation options
By Gina Ziervogel
Anticipatory: takes place before impacts of climate change
Reactive: takes place after impacts of climate change are observed
Autonomous: response due to change in environment or market, rather than conscious response to climate change
Planned: as a result of deliberate decision (may be prompted by policy)
Private: by individuals, households and businesses
Public: initiated by government at all levels
Types of Adaptation
(www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf)
Some adaptation is contextual and local
One group of farmers needs drought-resistant seeds; Another improved water saving techniquesAnother, improved access to markets[Anticipatory or reactive; private]
Context specific
Characteristics of adaptation
By Gina Ziervogel
Some adaptation has no benefits, or costs exceed benefits
Increasing the design standard of a road surface to copewith increased rainfall intensity only has benefits if thatroad experiences a storm of such magnitude(meanwhile the costs are incurred at present)[Anticipatory; public]
Costs exceed benefits
By Gina Ziervogel By Gina Ziervogel
Some adaptation has immediate costs and delayed benefits
Building a reservoir with added capacity to cope withincreased flood volumes that are not expected for30-50 years in the future[Anticipatory; public]
Delayed benefits
By Gina Ziervogel
References
Adger, N.W., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15: 77-86
Eakin, H. and Lemos, M.C. 2006.Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change 16(1): 7–18
Eriksen, S., O’Brien, K. and Rosentrater, L. 2008. Climate Change in Eastern and Southern Africa: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The International Project Office of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security( GECHS) Report 2008:2. Can be accessed at www.gechs.org/publications/reports/
Nelson, D.R., Adger, N.W. and Brown, K. 2007. Adaptation to Environmental Change: Contributions of a Resilience Framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 32.
All web links were checked in November 2011
Acknowledgements
Some slide material from Tom Downing, Stockholm Environment Institute and GCAP