seismic risk assessment for portugal
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Seismic Risk Assessment for PortugalTRANSCRIPT
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Vitor Silva1,2, Helen Crowley2, Humberto Varum1, Rui Pinho3
1 University of Aveiro, Portugal2 GEM Foundation, Italy3 University of Pavia, Italy
Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal
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Current Seismic Hazard and Risk assessment in Portugal
‣ Portugal is located in a region with low to moderate seismic hazard;
‣ National building portfolio is characterized by a large fraction of masonry construction;
‣ Various Studies already exist regarding the seismic risk assessment in Portugal (LNEC, IST, FEUP, UA, UMinho);
‣ Present study represented a chance to investigate new PSHA models, up-to-date building portfolio and new vulnerability model.
‣ Test the open-source software from the Global Earthquake Model initiative.
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Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal
‣ Hazard model proposed by Vilanova and Fonseca in 2007
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Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal
‣ Consideration of a large logic tree structure
‣ Ground motion models from Akkar and Bommer (2010) and Atkinson and Boore (2007)
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Probabilistic Seismic hazard for Portugal
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
‣ Strongly based on the CENSUS Survey of 2011
‣ Building distribution at three administrative levels
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
‣ Buildings have been organized in terms of construction materials, number of storeys and time of construction (design level)
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
‣ Buildings have been organized in terms of construction materials, number of storeys and time of construction (design level)
1985 - 2011
A
B
C
A
B
D
C
1960 - 1985
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
a) Reinforced concrete b) common masonry c) weak masonry
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Probabilistic Seismic hazard model for Portugal
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
1x1 km2
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Development of an up-to-date Exposure Model
‣ Two exposure models with different spatial resolutions
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
‣ For reinforced concrete (bare-frame) structures, 200 drawings were analyzed
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
‣ RC 2D frame representative of a building typology
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
100 ground motion records
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
‣ Fragility models following two damage criteria
Inter-storey driftGlobal drift
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
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Development of a new fragility/vulnerability model
‣ For masonry typologies, a simpler methodology was employed
Capacity curves from the work of Carvalho et al. 2002 were combined with the capacity Spectrum method (Freeman, 2002) to derive sets of fragility curves
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Seismic risk for Portugal
‣ Probabilistic losses for a 475 years return period (parish resolution)
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Seismic risk for Portugal
‣ Probabilistic losses for a 475 years return period (gridded resolution)
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Seismic risk for Portugal
‣ Disaggregation of losses per building typology
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What can one do with these results?
‣ Identification of the regions where risk mitigation measures should be applied;
‣ Understanding of the expected average annual losses to establish insurance
premiums;
‣ Development of insurance mechanisms (e.g. TCIP);
‣ Identification of the building typologies contributing to the total losses, and
recommend retrofitting interventions;
‣ Evaluation the effectiveness of the current design regulations in terms of
economic losses;
‣ Employ the direct losses (seismic risk) in an integrated risk evaluation (socio-
economic vulnerability/resilience)
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Seismic Risk Assessment for Portugal
Thank you
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org