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  • SEMI Equipment and Materials Market Update

    Clark Tseng, Sr. ManagerSEMI Industry Research & Statistics

    October 2015

  • Outline

    2015 Year-to-Date Trends

    Equipment Market Outlook

    Materials Market Outlook

    Summary

  • Year-to-Date Trends

  • 2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts

    2.3%

    5.0%

    3.4%

    3.0%

    2.0%

    4.3%

    0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

    WSTS (Aug 15)

    IDC (Sep 15)

    Cowan LRA (Aug 15)

    TSMC (Jul 15)

    IC Insights (Aug 15)

    Semico Research (Sep 15)

    Source: Compiled by SEMI

  • Year to Date

    Growing uncertainty in the global economic condition Slower growth from emerging markets; mediocre

    European market; Japan 2Q GDP contraction; China stock market

    Semiconductor revenue forecasts lowered Generally, from mid-single digit to low-single digit Japan and Europe currency devaluation Inventory issue, PC/tablet market down, high-end smart

    phone market growth slowing Declining DRAM pricing

    Some companies reduced capex for 2015 Yet

  • Unit Trends-Strong Year-over-Year growth for 1H

    Source: SEMI and WSTS

  • Silicon Area Shipment Index

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    240

    260

    280

    Jan-

    12

    Ap

    r-12

    Jul-

    12

    Oct

    -12

    Jan-

    13

    Ap

    r-13

    Jul-

    13

    Oct

    -13

    Jan-

    14

    Ap

    r-14

    Jul-

    14

    Oct

    -14

    Jan-

    15

    Ap

    r-15

    Jul-

    15

    Ind

    ex V

    alu

    e

    Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month Moving Average)

    Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group August 2015

    Silicon shipments are up 7% year to date through July

  • 0.90

    0.95

    1.00

    1.05

    1.10

    1.15

    Jan

    -14

    Feb

    -14

    Mar

    -14

    Ap

    r-1

    4

    May

    -14

    Jun

    -14

    Jul-

    14

    Au

    g-1

    4

    Sep

    -14

    Oct

    -14

    No

    v-1

    4

    De

    c-1

    4

    Jan

    -15

    Feb

    -15

    Mar

    -15

    Ap

    r-1

    5

    May

    -15

    Jun

    -15

    Jul-

    15

    (f)

    15

    -Au

    g (p

    )

    Bo

    ok-

    to-B

    ill R

    atio

    $800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800

    Jan

    -14

    Feb

    -14

    Mar

    -14

    Ap

    r-1

    4

    May

    -14

    Jun

    -14

    Jul-

    14

    Au

    g-1

    4

    Sep

    -14

    Oct

    -14

    No

    v-1

    4

    De

    c-1

    4

    Jan

    -15

    Feb

    -15

    Mar

    -15

    Ap

    r-1

    5

    May

    -15

    Jun

    -15

    Jul-

    15

    (f)

    Au

    g-1

    5US$

    Mil

    lio

    ns

    North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill

    (based on three month averages)

    Bookings Billings

    SEMI North America Book-to-Bill-Steady booking and billings trends thru August

    Source: SEMI August 2015

  • Global Semiconductor Equipment Spending

    Source: SEMI/SEAJ

    2015 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings(U.S. Dollars in Millions)

    Region2015 Year-to-Date (August)

    2014 Year-to-Date (August)

    Y/Y % Change

    Europe $1,421 $1,549 -8.3%

    Japan $3,480 $2,531 37.5%

    North America $3,773 $5,488 -31.2%

    Korea $5,810 $4,375 32.8%

    Taiwan $6,055 $6,447 -6.1%

    China $3,134 $3,287 -4.7%

    ROW $1,346 $1,284 4.8%

    Total $25,018 $24,961 0.2%

    Year-date-bookings are flat

  • Equipment Market Outlook

  • 66%

    14%

    -7%5%

    -9%

    28%40%

    66%

    10%5%

    -21%

    17%

    87%

    -41%-30%

    12%

    67%

    -11%

    23%6%

    -31%-46%

    150%

    9%

    -15%-14%

    18%3%

    5%

    -100%

    -50%

    0%

    50%

    100%

    150%

    200%

    $0

    $10

    $20

    $30

    $40

    $50

    $60

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    F20

    16F

    An

    nu

    al G

    row

    th(%

    )

    Ca

    pit

    al E

    qu

    ipm

    en

    t($

    US

    Bil

    lio

    n)

    Capital Equipment Annual Growth

    Capital Equipment Cycles

    Source: SEMI/SEAJ. SEMI 2015 Mid-Year Forecast, August update

  • Regional Semiconductor Equipment Markets

    China12% Europe

    6%

    Japan11%

    Korea18%

    North America

    22%

    ROW6%

    Taiwan25%

    2014 = $37.50 billion

    Region 2014$US B

    2015F$US B

    %Change

    China $4.37 $4.56 4%

    Europe 2.38 2.50 5%

    Japan 4.18 5.29 27%

    Korea 6.84 8.13 19%

    North America 8.16 6.26 -23%

    SEA/ROW 2.15 2.14 -1%

    Taiwan 9.41 9.56 2%

    Total $37.50 $38.44 3%

    Source: SEMI/SEAJ August 2015 update

    Totals may not add due to rounding

  • Fab Equipment Spending-Driven by Memory and Foundry

  • The Return of 200mm Capacity

  • Foundries-Ramping 200mm capacity in 2015 and 2016

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F

    Foundry only- 200mm 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.29 2.28 2.37 2.43

    1.95

    2.00

    2.05

    2.10

    2.15

    2.20

    2.25

    2.30

    2.35

    2.40

    2.45

    2.50

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F

    Inst

    alle

    d C

    apac

    ity

    (Mill

    ion

    s w

    pm

    )

    Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity

    Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

  • Materials Market Outlook

  • Global Silicon Wafer Shipment Trends

    Source: Rose Associates 1991to 1994; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2013; SEMI Forecast

  • Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast

    Totals may not add due to roundingSource: SEMI August 2015

    Actual Forecast

    2013US$ M

    2014US$ M

    2015US$ M

    2016US$ M

    Silicon Wafers1 $7,932 $7,990 $7,954 $8,278

    Photomasks2 3,136 3,220 3,342 3,442

    Photoresist 1,220 1,374 1,354 1,413

    Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,428 1,711 1,777 1,850

    Wet Chemicals4 995 1,059 1,121 1,104

    Gases 3,319 3,481 3,577 3,721

    Sputter Targets4 598 629 653 696

    CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,436 1,569 1,618 1,722

    Other/New Materials 2,588 2,945 3,178 3,415

    Total $22,652 $23,977 $24,574 $25,641

    % Growth 6% 2% 4%

  • Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes

    1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers

    2. Includes captive market3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective coatings,

    contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc.4. Source is Linx Consulting LLC, Sputter Targets includes precious metals5. Estimates for IC applications only6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric

    precursors, organometallic precursors, etc.7. All forecasts in current dollars8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated

  • Photomask Market

    Source: SEMI March 2015$0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    $3,000

    $3,500

    $4,000

    2005 2007 2010 2015F 2016F

    US$

    Mill

    ion

    Taiwan ROW North America Korea Japan Europe China

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    2005 2015F

    Pe

    rcen

    t of

    Mar

    ket

    Merchant Captive

    Source: SEMI March 2015

  • Regional Fab Materials Markets

    China7%

    Europe10%

    Japan18%

    Korea19%

    North America

    18%

    SEA/ROW 6%

    Taiwan22%

    2015F = $24.6 billion

    Region 2015F$US B

    2016F$US B

    %Change

    China $1.77 $1.89 6%

    Europe 2.49 2.57 3%

    Japan 4.39 4.50 2%

    Korea 4.65 4.95 6%

    North America 4.46 4.59 3%

    Taiwan 5.47 5.73 5%

    SEA/ROW 1.34 1.42 7%

    Total $24.57 $25.64 4%

    Source: SEMI August 2015

    Totals may not add due to rounding

  • Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast

    Totals may not add due to roundingSource: SEMI August 2015

    Actual Forecast

    2013US$ M

    2014US$ M

    2015US$ M

    2016US$ M

    Leadframes $3,342 $3,461 $3,350 $3,346

    Organic Substrates1 7,408 7,612 8,196 8,586

    Ceramic Packages 2,006 2,075 2,157 2,174

    Encapsulation Resins 2,451 2,712 2,922 3,187

    Bonding Wire2 4,151 3,385 3,176 3,099

    Die Attach Materials3 666 704 734 752

    Others 374 409 451 500

    Total $20,398 $20,358 $20,986 $21,644

    % Growth -0.2% 3% 3%

    Packaging Materials will be 46% of the 2015 Total Semiconductor

    Materials Market

    Major update coming in November

  • Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes

    1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates

    2. Assume gold value of $1,480/trz for 2013; $1,260/trz for 2014; $1,190/trz for 2015 - 2016

    3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package

    dielectrics5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated6. All forecasts in current dollars

  • Packaging Material Market Trends

    CSP laminate substrates, CSP leadframes, and WLP are driven by explosive growth in

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