seminar lecture in taiwan (february 2008) japanese agricultural policy reform coping with...
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Seminar Lecture in Taiwan (February 2008)
Japanese Agricultural Policy Reform Coping with
Globalization Masayoshi Honma
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New development in Japanese agricultural policy
• Introduction of direct payment: Targeting large farms• Rice production control: Increases in the role of JA• Changes in Minster of MAFF: Scandal issues• Ruling LDP lost in Upper House election in July 2007:
Revival of farm protection policy• Rapid decline in rice price: Need of structural reform• Demand for bio-fuel: high price of feed grain• Contaminated dumplings from China: led to food self-
sufficiency issues
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Problems to be solved in Japanese agriculture
• Establishing agricultural policy coping with the globalization through WTO and FTA
→ to prepare for declines in tariffs and to promote product differentiation
• Reconsideration of the direct payment policy coping with structural reform in agriculture
→ to give large farms incentives to enlarge their operation scale and to grow their management skill
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Agricultural import of Japan
0
100
200
300
400
(輸
入数
量指
数)
1970 1980 1990 199519961997199819992000 ( 年 )
350(2000年
)
Import Quantity Index(1970年= 100)
Doha RoundDoha Round(2001(2001 ~~ ))
Tokyo Tokyo RoundRound
(1973(1973 ~~ 79)79)
Uruguay RoudUruguay Roud(1986(1986 ~~ 94)94)
Kennedy Kennedy RoundRound
(1963(1963 ~~ 67)67)
出典:農林水産省配布資料
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出典:農林水産省配布資料
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Current WTO negotiation on agriculture
• Exporters VS . Importers → Developing countries VS . US+EU
• G4 (EU, US, Brazil and India) is the mail player • S&D treatment for developing countries is important• Influence of Japan and other importers declined• Emergence of African counties’ power: cotton initiatives • Modality for market access: the larger the current tariff
is, the larger the reduction rate will be
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Proposal by the Chair• Average 54% or more reduction in the layer-wise
reduction formula: hard to accept for Japan • Sensitive product box is 4-6% of tariff lines: Japan
insists more than 10 %
note: # of tariff lines in Japan: rice (17), wheat (20), dairy products (20), sugar (56)
• Abolishing Special Safe Guard: Japan insisted increase in number of SSG
• Leaving the issue of capping tariff for the negotiation: most important issue for Japan
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Importance of FTA for Japan
• Enlarged EU on the west, Greater America for FTAA, and how about in Asia?
• Demerit increased to be out of the FTA network in the world
• Rapid development of Korea for FTA with US and EU
• Toward Asian Community in the future and the leadership of Japan
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Rapid changes in world food economy
• Rapid increases in demand in BRICS for high quality foods:
Japan tends to lose in buying competition• Rapid increases in demand for bio-fuel: Soaring grain prices damaging dairy and livestock
farmers• Global warming and climate changes: Unstable production with changes in production
patterns and frequent floods and draughts
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Food self-sufficiency ratio in Japan
In calorie base 79%(1960 ) -->53% ( 1980)
-->40% ( 2000 ) -->39% ( 2006 )
Self-sufficiency ratios for selected Japanese dishes:
Pork cutlet don (50%), Curry rice (49%), Beef don (46%), Yakitori chicken (27%), Tempura (23%),
Hamburg (12%), Ramen (3%)
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Food security issue in Japan-Can we survive in stopping food imports?-
(1)Yes, with 4.67 million hectares of current farm land to supply 2020 kcal per person per day
(2) But how to operate production and distribution effectively?(3) It is not a food or agricultural issue but the national security issue(4) The most important is to secure the energy supply in advance of f
ood supply -The menu of daily food with 100% self-supply (2020 kcal)-
Breakfast: a cap of rice, a sweet potato, some picklesLunch: two pieces of potatoes, boiled potatoes, a piece of appleSuper: a cap of rice, baked potatoes, a piece of fish + udon (every 2days), miso soup (every two days), natto (2 in 3days)milk (every 6days), eggs (every 7days), meat (every 9days)
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Agricultural policy reform coping with globalization
• Reduce the price gap between domestic and import food with product differentiation
• Look for the comparative advantage of Japanese agriculture
• Liberalize the agricultural labor migration• Secure the food supply through FTA arrangement• Technical assistance in developing countries, in
particular for the SPS issues• Establish a forum for Common Agricultural Policy in
Asia