sensitivity analysis of hydraulic model to morphological changes and changes in flood inundation...
DESCRIPTION
Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic model to morphological changes and changes in flood inundation extent. Do channel changes affect flood extent?. J.S. Wong 1 , J. Freer 1 , P.D. Bates 1 , & D.A. Sear 2. 1 University of Bristol; 2 University of Southampton. Background and Motivation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic model to morphological changes and changes in flood inundation extent
J.S. Wong1, J. Freer1, P.D. Bates1, & D.A. Sear2
1University of Bristol; 2University of Southampton
Do channel changes affect flood extent?
Background and Motivation
• Flood inundation• focus on simulation of inundation areas and flow
depths• influences of river geometry are neglected
• Morphological change• increasing recognition of geomorphological impacts
on flooding• vital but still uncertain
• How do bed elevation changes influence flood extent during an extreme flood event?
Study Site - Cockermouth
• Background• North West Cumbria, UK• one major river (River Derwent) and two tributaries
(Rivers Cocker & Marron) – combined catchment area of 1235km2
Study Site - Cockermouth
• Why Cockermouth?• extreme flood event in November 2009• significant course change • deposition of debris on the floodplain
Data availability
• 3 datasets of observed flood extent• Wrack marks• 0.15m Aerial photography• 1m TERRASAR-X imagery
• presence of pre-and post-event morphological surveyed data
Number of cross-sections
234
Total length (m) 28567.04Mean Maximum Minimum
Width (m) 34.97 195.83 18.51Bed Elevation (m) 36.93 67.44 4.20
Model Setup
• 1D-2D LISFLOOD-FP• inertial formulation of shallow water equations [Bates
et al., 2010]• 20m resolution DEM extracted from LiDAR• gauged data as upstream boundary conditions• free downstream boundary condition• run for 167.75hrs, from 12:00 on 17th Dec to 23:45 on
20th Dec, 2009, across domain size of 100km2
• Monte Carlo simulations
Model PerformanceChannel Friction Floodplain Friction RMSE (m)
Wrack marks 0.0220 – 0.0420 0.0440 0.2751
Aerial photography 0.0380 - 0.1350 0.0290 0.4187
TERRASAR-X imagery 0.0470 0.0200 0.6303
Parameter Minimum MaximumManning’s n (channel)
0.02 0.14
Manning’s n (floodplain)
0.02 0.14
Probability Flood Map
Generation of Bed Elevation Scenarios
• A simplified approach• initiation motion of grains at the bed, where shear
stress exceeds critical shear stress• maximum erosion depth is defined as
• focus on scouring effect, no deposition and lateral erosion
Parameter Minimum MaximumCritical shear stress τcr 0.047 0.083Grain size characteristic D50
0.042 0.082
Bed Elevation Change Scenario (95% Quantile)
Reevaluation of Model PerformanceChannel Friction Floodplain Friction RMSE (m)
Wrack marks 0.0660 (0.0220 – 0.0420)
0.0490 (0.0440)
0.3147 (0.2751)
Aerial photography 0.1240(0.0380 - 0.1350)
0.0340 (0.0290)
0.4179 (0.4187)
TERRASAR-X imagery 0.0470(0.0470)
0.0200(0.0200)
0.6065 (0.6303)
Parameter Minimum MaximumManning’s n (channel)
0.02 0.14
Manning’s n (floodplain)
0.02 0.14
Differences in Flood Extent Probability
Conclusions• The channel friction is insensitive on the amount of water that flows
out of bank• The entire valley floor is acting as a single channel unit in conveying
the large flows • No significant changes in flood extent before and after the bed
elevation changes, possibly due to constraints of valley wall• Further investigation on water depth
• Potential flood extent differences in response to morphological changes when given smaller flood event
• Potential errors in the specification of upstream gauged data
Future Work• A 2D morphological model (CAESAR-LISFLOOD) will be set up to
fully account for the morphological changes to flood extent and water depth
• Parameter space exploration of CAESAR-LISFLOOD to build up a modelling framework for identifying realistic morphological changes
• Application of modelling framework using Cockermouth as test site for future climate scanerios
The EndQuestions and comments are welcome!