Service Provision Aspectswithin GALILEO

Ian E. Casewell & Gordon T. JohnstonCivil GPS Service Interface Committee

1st December 2000

l There is increasing concern over growing world (European) dependency onthe US military GPS for Navigation and timing needs

l GPS offers no service level agreements, T’s and C’s, & is not suitable forSafety of Life applications

l Europe foresees a civil owned, civil managed, comprehensive, highperformance, navigation, positioning and timing system with acommunications backbone

l Galileo will have defined service levels and will be certifiable

l Galileo will support a multi-modal single European transport market

l Galileo represents major opportunities for European Industry in spacetechnology, ground systems and user/applications equipment

l Security issues will be considered

l Galileo is therefore the European version of GPS with significant extrabenefits

GALILEO - WHY?GALILEO - WHY?

Current StudiesCurrent Studies

Four parallel studies run by EC:• Overall Architecture, GALA• EGNOS integration, INTEG• Support to Standardisation, SAGA• Service Definition, GEMINUS

Plus:•ESA GALILEOSAT study

GALA Study StructureGALA Study Structure

– 12 Top level work packages:• Applications definition and sizing• Overall requirements and system trade offs• Galileo overall architecture• User segment definition• Components Definition• Safety analysis• Support segment• Pilot Projects• Programmatic and business issues• Liaison with other activities• Program management• GAST

ObjectivesObjectives

l To identify relevant applications.

l Define a small number of market driven services.

l Identify and define potential Galileo applications.

l For each of these applications we must:

• determine the user requirements,

• map each application on to a service,

• forecast market size,

• estimate revenue,

l To provide recommendations for the GALA programmatics and pilotprojects work packages.

"It is far better to foresee even withoutcertainty than not to foresee at all. "

Henri Poincaré in The Foundations of Science.

Predicting the futurePredicting the future

Team OrganizationTeam Organization

Ansaldo Signal

CENTRORICERCHEFIAT

Overall methodOverall method

Write-upresults

Defineapplications

Definemarket size

Specifyinformation,procedures,format etc

Marketspecialists

Core teamSpreadsheets

Tech notes

Tech notes

Interviewresults

Market sizetables and

factors

Applicationdefinitions

anddescriptions

DD005, DD002,DD004, DD005

PM 5

Userneeds

analysis

Marketsize

analysis

Interviews

Navigation user requirements results

Applications Defintion and Sizing

l The list of applications:• has been fully revised during Phase 2 to improve size estimate• addresses wide variety:

– of host platforms– environments– wide variety of sub-markets

l Applications have been studied in three high level marketsectors:

• safety of life market:• mass market:• professional market:

Applications definitionApplications definition

All301745

High Priority1(HP)23

813

___________________________________________

1 High Priority defined as an application which provides key infrastructure or has a net revenue of > 14M

Applications

Air

Land

Sea

Position accuracy and integrityPosition accuracy and integrity

1.E-09

1.E-08

1.E-07

1.E-06

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-020.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

Accuracy (m 95%)

Inte

gri

ty R

isk

/hr

Low priority

High Priority

Train control

ADAS

Space Docking

UAV

HarbourDockingRobot

Mining

Track Survey

Earth Deformation

Construction

Land Cadastral

Inland Waterway Nav

Robotic Land Vehicles

Marine Engineering

Non-performance discriminatorsNon-performance discriminators

l Performance rated as:• strong discriminator for 37% of applications,• unlikely discriminator for 15% of applications,

– an application-by-application basis, high priority.

l Non-performance discriminators with respect to othernavigation solutions (including GPS) include:

• long term commitment by service provider,• guarantee of service, including legal liability,• traceability and auditability of past performance,• contractual and operations transparency,• certified SIS,• interoperability with GPS,• integrated service provision (“one stop shopping”).

l Bottom-up approach:

• market driven,

• driven by market characteristics and user requirements,

• independent of implementation.

l Provides structure for:• building up market size,

• assessing common factors within user requirements,

• allocating conjoint attributes,

l Comparison performed with GALA baseline services.

Use of navigation services within WP1Use of navigation services within WP1

WP1 Navigation Service DefinitionsWP1 Navigation Service Definitionsl Position Velocity and Time service (PVT)

• Basic service for the mass market. Free access (if GPS is free)

l Accuracy and Integrity service (AI)• High accuracy and availability with real-time integrity messages for

less demanding SOL and professional markets. Access tosubscribers only.

l High Integrity service (HI)• Provides highest integrity, availability and continuity and resistance

to signal interference. Access to trusted subscribers

l Ranging and Timing service (RT)• Very precise ranging, positioning and timing signals for the

knowledgeable professional

WP1 Mapping resultsWP1 Mapping results

1.0E-09

1.0E-08

1.0E-07

1.0E-06

1.0E-05

1.0E-04

1.0E-03

1.0E-020.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Accuracy (95% m)

Inte

gri

ty r

isk

/hr

Train Control

HI

RT

PVT-2

AI-1

AI-2

Harbour Docking

PVT-1

Track survey

WP1 service

HP application

Combined Use of GALILEO and GPS SPSCombined Use of GALILEO and GPS SPS

Id Performance Benefit Condition Services and Applications (HP)

1 Improved position accuracy:

6m to 4m (95% H)

10m to 6m (95%V)

Good satellitevisibility

ie satellites visible at10°

PVT: emergency call cars m’cycles(35)

AI-1: vehicle tracking police/fire(20),

covert tracking police (22),emergency call cars m’cycles (35)

2 Improved RAIM providing

improved integrity risk :

~1.0E-4 /hr to ~1.0E-5 /hr

Accuracy > 10 m PVT: lone worker protection (28),

ambulance tracking (17),

A1-1: pedestrian tracking police/fire(21),

3 Improved DOP providing

improved availability

Environment withpoor satellitevisibility (urban)

Accuracy > 10m

PVT: route guidance cars m’cycles(33),

personnel outdoor recreation (46)

AI-1: pedestrian tracking police/fire(21)

4 Improved robustness &TTFF

Accuracy <0.3 m

ie use of RTK

RT: earth deformation monitoring(62), Land/Cad.survey (83), oceancryospheric env. studies (94)

5 Improved availability Availability >99.9% HI: commercial air transport, traincontrol, auto land vehicles etc

Market size methodologyMarket size methodology

GALILEOmarketshare

Penetration factors

GALILEOshare

factors

PenetratedMarket size

AddressableMarket size

2000

best est opt mlike pess opt mlike pess opt mlike pess2010 2015 20202005

opt mlike pess

Region

N AmericaEuropePacific RimRussia & E EurCentral AsiaIndiaMiddle EastCen & S AmrAntc & Arctic

App. 1

100

World population of potential GNSS host platforms

GNSS take up

Galileo share

Data input matrix

Market specialist inputs

“If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me” William Shakespeare

Allocate to service

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

size

mill

ion

2010 2015 2020

year

Galileo total market size as share of addressable market most likley values

addressable market

GNSS penetrated

Galileo share

Total market size 1Total market size 1

Total market size 2Total market size 2

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Mar

ket

size

(m

illio

n)

2010 2015 2020

year

Galileo total market size - growth by scenario

Optimistic

Most likely

Pessimistic

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Rev

enu

e (m

illio

n e

uro

)

The Rest

Vehicle Tracking (polIce/fire

)

Fleet Man. (a

ll vehicles)

Pedestrian Tracking (p

olIce/fire)

Location based Comms Services

Driver svces (all vehicles)

Application

Galileo gross & net revenue breakdown by applicationTop 5 applications - Most likely (2015)

Gross

Net

Gross/net ratio for top applicationsGross/net ratio for top applications

Revenue methodologyRevenue methodology

Net purchaserevenues

Net servicerevenues

Navcomponent

ratio(purchase)

Navcomponent

ratio (service)

Grosspurchaserevenues

Purchase price(gross)

Market size(Galileo share)

Market specialistinputs

Gross servicerevenues

Service price(gross)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Gross-net purchase

Gross-net service

Net purchase

Net services

Optimistic

Most likely

Pessimistic

77.6

42.6

21.1

M Euro

22.2

40.4

10.63.8

8.1

15.5

Total Revenue BreakdownTotal Revenue Breakdown

ApplicationsApplications Definition and Sizing Definition and Sizing

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions & RecommendationsConclusions & Recommendationsl Bottom up analysis of user needs, market size and revenue has been

produced.

l Approximately 100 applications identified, defined and quantified.

l Seven services have been defined solely from the user needs point ofview.

l Established minority of applications demand integrity, otherapplications may follow suit as the level of their reliance increases.

l For many applications, non-technical discriminators are as importantas technical performance.

l Total Galileo market size estimated to be 410M in 2015 rising to 745Min 2020.

l Location based communications and driver services are the top twoapplications by size.