session 6 trends in broadcasting and mobile television€¦ · • for every additional free hour,...
TRANSCRIPT
Session 6Trends in
Broadcasting and Mobile Television
Peter Walop, ITU expert
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Presentation Overview• TV still going strong?• Drivers• Race for capacity
3
1. TV still going strong?
• TV still going strong? It depends..
o OTT claims shares in ‘cabled’ countries
o OTT needs good broadband, especially for (U)HDTV
Source: PwC Global Media Outlook
TV ADEX Annual Growth Rates (%)
Content Creator
Network provider
Service Provider
Device producers
Content Provider
OTT
Cable/IPTV provider
OTT connected TV devices
4
• ‘OTT homeland’ US shows viewership impact
• From 2013 to 2014:
o OTT subscribers from 35% to 40% of TVHH
o Time shifting from 13hr12 to 14hr20 per monthSource: Nielsen US
1. TV still going strong?
Monthly viewing time – US (hours/month)
5
• Most of VOD is ‘catch-up-TV’ of mainstream TV services
• Premium content and brand management is key
• About half is short form video and is on the move/mobile
Source: Ofcom
1. TV still going strong?
Type of VOD consumed (%)
53%
40%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Short form video (e.g. Youtube)
Long form video (e.g. Catch‐up TV)
TV & Film services (e.g Netflix/Lovefilm)
6
Presentation Overview• TV still going strong?• Drivers• Race for capacity
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2. Drivers
Source: Convergence Consulting Company
Telecom Media
Device Producer
s
Inter-active Multi-media
Technological innovations
Regu
lati
ons
Changes of user preferencesConvergence area
8
2. Drivers
# Active Fixed Subscribers
More Broadband Access (>256 Kbps)
# Active Mobile Subscribers
Source: ITU
More Smart Devices
Mobile Subs by technology (%)
More Bandwidth
International Internet BW (Gbps)
9
• For every additional free hour, 30 minutes goes into watching television
• All UK TV viewing = all time spent on all social networks worldwide (6.5 billion hours)
• Leisure and technology intertwined in several ways
• Change is slow and yes we get more leisure time.. Really!
Source: American Time Use Survey
2. Drivers
Leisure time spent on average day (minutes)
Changes of user preferences
My labourers work 11 hours a day and preferably not in
the evenings or Sundays
2. Drivers
10
Steam engine factory, end 19th century
““
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• User preferences are lagging behind technology
• Most cited reasons for using VOD services is to catch-up TV broadcasts
• Connected sets on the rise and standardization of apps will result in more VOD
Source: Ofcom
2. Drivers
Frequency of Watching Linear TV
Changes of user preferences
88%
88%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Main TV set at home
Smart TV set at home
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Less often/never
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• User preferences are lagging behind technology
• Broadband and OTT is accelerating time shifting
• Households get smaller and content ‘can’ be tailored at home
Source: BARB
2. Drivers
Number of DVRs and Time Shifting
Changes of user preferences
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Presentation Overview• TV still going strong?• Drivers• Race for capacity
UHDTV 2 (8K)50 Mbps H.265/HEVC
91 Mbps H.264
UHDTV 1 (4K)25-35 Mbps H.265/HEVC
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3. Race for capacity
Increasing Video Definition
HD7.5 Mbps H.264
SD 2 Mbps
• HD/UHDTV are flexible notions
• H.264/H.265 performance are system & content dependent
• H.264/H.265 performance to improve over time
• For flat panel TV sets• Varying terrestrial systems• Varying framerates• Varying powers/distances
1080
2160
4320
1920 3840 7680
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3. Race for capacity
Minutes per session per device
Source: OOYALA
• Globally busy hour will be 3.3 x higher than average hour by 2018
• Live not restricted at home and mobile to follow
• Live on mobile is likely to be premium content
• Video (= Live + VOD) on mobile will be very spiky
• How to allocate spectrum efficiently?
