Setting Goals and Getting Started with Scenarios

Emily McKenzie

Montserrat

Valuation: Centre Hills, Montserrat

• What change in decision-making do you seek?• Who can make that change happen? • When will decisions be made?• What info do they need / seek? • How can ES info help?

LESSON # 1: Establish Goals, Be Specific

LESSON # 2: Prioritize process

1. Credible2. Legitimate (unbiased, inclusive)3. Salient (relevant, timely)

LESSON # 3: Make outputs relevant

• Relevant ecosystem services• Suitable outputs (biophysical, econ)• Appropriate scale• Scenarios• Post-processing analyses

Activity

• How can you enhance credibility, salience and legitimacy of InVEST results?

• Which ecosystem services are most relevant?• Which ecosystem service outputs are suitable?• What scale is most appropriate? • What scenarios would you compare?

LESSON # 4: Tell Stories, Use Scenarios

Valuation study in Bermuda

After

Before

Scenarios can hone your message

• Bermuda’s reefs worth– $722 million p.a.– 10-17% of GDP

But what would be costs and benefits of new shipping channels?

Why use scenarios?

• Identify tradeoffs• Consider new policies• ‘Future-proof’ policies• Air conflicts, develop consensus

• Scenario Guidance• Scenario Case Studies• InSEAM • Scenario Generator• InVEST linked to IDRISI Land Change Modeler

NatCap Scenario Tools

Conclusions

1. Be specific about goals2. Recognize importance

of process3. Make sure InVEST

outputs are relevant4. Use scenarios

www.naturalcapitalproject.org/policy_tools

– Screening Criteria– InVEST in Practice

– Scenario Tools

Spare slides

Select sites carefully

• Will it deliver service & conservation?

• Are conditions supportive?

Screening Criteria + ? -Service deliveryMeasurabilityScale / replicableAlternatives…

Strong opportunityHigh riskInformation gap

An assessment framework

1. Secure Government or Institutional Support

2. Conduct Biophysical Assessment

Demonstrate potential economic efficiencies and social benefits of PWS

1. Show current ES status2. Identify where to distribute payments

3. Predict how ES will change under PWS4. Prioritize significant land management alternatives

3. Develop Governance

4. Identify Service Buyers

1. Identify geographic areas of current ES provision2. Identify geographic areas of potential ES provision

3. Assess ES returns of management options

5. Identify Service Providers

Identify where ES are delivered

6. Set Prices or Payments Provide ES values as base for negotiation

7. Institutional Assessment

8. Assess and Develop Capacity

9. Define Success Inform ES target levels

10. Determine Contract and Payment Types

11. Monitoring and Evaluation Inform design of monitoring program

12. Adapt and Scale Up1. Assess potential ES returns of alternative

management plans2. Identify where to focus new PWS programs

Policy Step InVEST Contribution

Framework for defining success

PRODUCE RESULTS

Published

Disseminated

PRODUCE TOOLS THAT GENERATE

ACTION

Alternatives based on ES

scientific framework

Plans & policies

consider ES impacts & dynamics

PRODUCE OUTCOMES

New policy & finance

mechanisms

Improved & balanced ES

provision

Increased biodiversity &

human wellbeing

PRODUCE TOOLS THAT

SHAPE MINDS

People understand

and aware of ES

Stakeholders focused on ES impacts

Stakeholder differences mediated