sewells group adci report- end of jul-sep 2014 quarter (india)

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sewellsgroup.com End of July‐September 2014 Quarter

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Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of dealer sentiment about their business over the next six months from the time it is being captured. The Sewells Group ADCI survey is conducted with automotive dealers across the nation to quantify their sentiment about the automotive retail trade, with a six-month time horizon. The survey is conducted quarterly, with an intention of tracking the movement of dealer sentiment over time. This report gives the results of the survey for the at the end of July-September 2014 quarter which was conducted in the first week of October.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.com

End of July‐September 2014 Quarter

Page 2: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.comPage 1

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

GAUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

SEWELLS GROUP

INDEXGlobally, confidence indices are viewed as reliable precursors to business performance. Such indices aim to capture and quantify the sentiment of various industry stakeholders – be it CXOs, suppliers, vendors or distribution partners who usually are in the middle of the action. People within the industry, typically use these indices to get a sense of stakeholder sentiment and optimize their actions in line with the sentiment. Market analysts, on the other hand, interpret theses indices as a ‘lead indicators’ of the performance of a particular industry or sector. An accurate, representative index may demonstrates a high level of correlation with actual business performance.

The automotive industry in India has been a sunrise sector contributing a significant share to country’s GDP. A healthy and growing domestic market, an active and constructive involvement from the government, growth of domestic auto manufacturers to become true global players and presence of multiple global brands in the country have made sure that this industry has come of its age. With everything else being executed at a global scale and with global vision, we believe that the time has come for Indian auto industry to have a dealer confidence index.

The important role played by auto dealers in this industry is already known. With their unique position at the market place, auto dealers are usually in touch with ground realities. And therefore such an indicator should be able position itself as useful signalling device for various stakeholders within the automotive industry eco‐system.

Page 3: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

Ssewellsgroup.comPage 2

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of dealer sentiment about their business over next six months from the time it is being captured. It will be published on a quarterly basis.

Within the automotive industry, dealers enjoy a unique position close to the ‘action on the ground’. They are in constant touch with prospects, customers, factory staff, competition dealers, financiers and other market intermediaries. Consequently, each dealer gets exposed to a plethora of information that in turn shapes his / her sentiment about the future of markets and businesses. The Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is an attempt to capture and quantify this well informed sentiment of the auto dealers from across the length and breadth of the country, representing multiple brands and product categories. We aim to be able to represent this collective sentiment in the form of an index, whose movement over time will reliably predict the direction of the wholesale and the retail sales within the industry.

We believe publication of such an index will allow industry stakeholders to have meaningful conversations in time, which in turn will help them put together better strategies to perform at the market place.

Page 4: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.comPage 3

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

TThe Sewells Group ADCI is designed to be a quarterly index that will be computed on the basis of responses received to a structured questionnaire from the automotive dealer fraternity in Indian market. The questionnaire attempts to capture their sentiment about economy in general and their business in particular on a six month forward horizon.

Sewells Group proposes to track the trend of the index which will offer an insight into the future direction of the market. We believe that it is the movement of the index which will offer greater insights than the absolute value of the index in a particular quarter.

In this third edition of the ADCI, we attempt to capture the sentiment of the dealer fraternity at the end of Jul‐Sep quarter of 2014. The findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the first & second edition to map the trend. We propose to repeat the survey at the end of each following quarter. Sewells Group proposes to increase the sample size of the survey in future.

For this edition, a questionnaire was distributed electronically (by email) to the dealer fraternity in India. A total of 178 responses received, from dealers, representing 23 brands were used to compute the index. Every effort has been made to ensure that the index is statistically meaningful and representative of dealer sentiment. However, we advise reader discretion while considering the statistical significance. At this stage, ADCI is designed only for “indicative” purposes.

The third edition of the survey represents an interesting point, when the government has started taken major policy decision. The business fraternity has welcome the efforts of the government with the positive sentiment about future. Automotive dealers‐an important part of country's business fraternity, expect that, an improved economic environment & government policies will translate into improved performance for them.

Page 5: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.comPage 4

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

PASSENGER CARS TWO‐WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS64

3818

14

66

PASSENGER CARS PASSENGER CARSTWO‐WHEELERS TWO‐WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

PASSENGER CARS TWO‐WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES OVERALL

52%

31%

13%

20%

35%

20%

25%

55%

33%

8%4%

62%

34%

4%0%

BEFORE 1975

1975 ‐ 1990

1990 ‐ 2005

AFTER 2005AG

E O

F D

EALE

RSH

IPS

LOC

ATI

ON

OF

RES

PO

ND

ENTS

BR

AN

DS

REP

RES

ENTE

D

23 BRANDS98 CITIES

4%

112 63%26%

11%

46

20

178

Page 6: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.comPage 5

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF JUL-SEP 14 QUARTERINDIA

INDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

The ADCI is designed to vary between ‐100 and +100, where an index score of ‐100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most optimistic outlook. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market and their businesses performing in next six months

The high level findings of the second edition of the survey are given below:

The overall ADCI stood at +14 indicating an optimistic sentiment s amongst the dealers surveyed.

The passenger car ADCI stands at +8, representing a mildly optimistic sentiment amongst dealers.

The commercial vehicle ADCI stands at ‐3, indicating a mildly pessimistic outlook of the commercial vehicle dealers.

The two wheeler dealers reflect the most optimistic sentiment of all the segments with an ADCI of +35, indicating a moderately optimistic sentiment of the two wheeler dealers.

0-80-100 -40-60 -20 +80 +100+40 +60+20

PESSIMISTIC NEUTRAL MODERATELY PESSIMISTIC MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC

OVERALL

PASSENGERCARS

COMMERCIALVEHICLES-3

TWO-WHEELERS 35

14

8

Page 7: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.comPage 6

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF JUL-SEP 14 QUARTER

INDEX-TREND

SEWELLS GROUP

ADCI continues to show increase in dealer sentiments. The trends observed during the third edition of the survey are given below:

The index for passenger cars for the quarter shifted to mildly optimistic from being mildly pessimistic in the previous quarter. The index increased from‐3 during previous quarter to +8 in the current survey.

The index for two‐wheeler dealers moved from +18 during previous to +35 in current survey. The 17 point movement of the index indicates a significant positive movement of sentiment.

Commercial vehicle dealer remain mildly pessimistic, however sentiment shows a huge swing of 35 points in the positive direction. The index for commercial vehicle dealers increased from‐38 during previous quarter to ‐3 in the current survey.

The increase in optimism of the dealers of all the three segments has led to an increase of 14 points in overall ADCI for the quarter ending September 2014 up from 0 in the Apr‐Jun 2014 quarter.

0

+80

+100

+40

+60

+20

-80

-100

-40

-60

-20

MO

DER

ATELY

PESSIM

ISTIC

MO

DER

ATELY

OPTIM

ISTIC

PESSIM

ISTIC

NEU

TR

AL

OPTIM

ISTIC

End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014

-40 -3

-20 0

+13

-32

+18

-38

SEGMENT

PASSENGER CARS

OVERALL

TWO-WHEELERS

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014

OVERALLPASSENGER

CARSTWO-

WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL

VEHICLES

+8

+14

+35

-3

Page 8: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

sewellsgroup.com

Future view of manpower strength of the business

Expected performance of the market as well as the

dealership over the next six months

Expected levels of sales, inventory and profits over the

next six months

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits vis‐à‐vis same period last year

Impact of the current economic scenario on the

market, as well as the dealership business

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits

vis‐à‐vis previous quarter

06

08

02

04

Page 7

07

05

03

01Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Market

Expected Market Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis‐a‐vis Same Period Previous Year

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Dealership

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis‐a‐vis Previous Quarter

Expected Manpower Strength Over Next Six Months

page 8 page 9

page 10 page 11

page 12 page 15

page 18 page 21

ANALYSIS OF SURVEY FINDINGS

The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCEINDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

The following pages carry details of responses received during the third edition of the survey for questions covering the above areas. Sewells Group intends to administer the ADCI survey every quarter, and intends to track the movement of question‐level distribution on a quarterly basis.

The findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the last 2 surveys which captured the sentiments of the dealer fraternity at the end of Jan‐Mar & Apr‐Jun quarters of 2014 to map the trend.

This section of analysis presents the distribution of responses across multiple questions that were asked in the survey and compared with the findings of the previous surveys.

Page 9: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

Majority of dealers feel that the current economic scenario is having a positive impact on the market. As compared to the quarter ending June 2014, the dealers are more positive (up to 60% from 41%) about the economic scenario in the quarter ending September 2014.

Optimism amongst the passenger car dealers is also high, with about 55% of them feeling that current economic scenario has a positive impact on the market as against 34% who were of this opinion in the previous survey.

Two wheeler dealers are the most optimistic amongst all the segments, with 78% of dealers feeling that the current market scenario has a positive impact on the market.

Commercial vehicle dealers who were extremely pessimistic during previous survey have shown marked improvement in sentiments about the impact of economic scenario on the market during current survey (up from 16% to 45%).

sewellsgroup.com

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

1CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIO

IMPACT OF THE

ON THE MARKET 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4%

11%

58%

27%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

7%

34%

41%

18%

Page 8

3%

52%33%

12%

5%

55%

32%

8%

13%

65%

20%

2% 0%

45%55%

0%

Page 10: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

Over 50% of the dealers feel that the current economic scenario is encouraging for the dealership business as against the 34% at the end of previous quarter.

About 47% of passenger car dealers believe that economic scenario has a positive impact on their dealership (up from 22% in the quarter ending June 2014)

Two wheeler dealers are most optimistic about the impact of current economic scenario on their dealership business with 69% dealers reporting positive impact as compared to 62% at the end of previous quarter.

Commercial vehicle dealers are still pessimistic as in the quarter ending June 2014, with about 70% of dealers expressing that current economic scenario has a negative impact on their business.

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

sewellsgroup.comPage 9

2CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIOON THE DEALERSHIP

IMPACT OF THE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

3%

18%

53%

26%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

5%

29%

46%

20%

6%

45%

37%

12%

3%

44%

37%

16% 15%

54%

26%

4% 0%

30%

65%

5%

Page 11: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

Overall, 70% dealers are optimistic about the expected market performance. However, there hasn’t been much difference since the last quarter where 67% were of the same opinion.

More dealers are exited (up to 8% up from 6%) and 69% of passenger car dealers expect the market performance to improve in next six months, this number has decreased slightly since the last survey where 72% were of the similar opinion.

Both the two wheeler dealers (up from 70% to 78%) and the commercial vehicle dealers (up from 39% to 60%) are optimistic about the market performance over next six months at the end of quarter ending September 2014, unlike their sentiment at the end of quarter ending June 2014.

3MARKET OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

sewellsgroup.comPage 10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

‐40

38%

46%

5%

11%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

7%

60%

26%

7%

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

12%

58%

26%

3%

8%

61%

28%

3%

24%

54%

20%

2%

5%

55%

35%

5%

Page 12: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

Overall, the dealers continue to remain as optimistic as they were in the previous quarter with 70% dealers positive about their performance in quarter ending September 2014).

A slight dip is seen in the excitement of the passenger car dealers with respect to their performance in the next six months as compared to that in the Apr‐Jun 2014 quarter (down from 75% to 70% in the quarter ending September 2014).

Two wheeler dealers are the most positive about their performance in the next six months with 83% expecting to perform better as against, the 71% who were of the same opinion last quarter.

Commercial vehicle dealers have shown a marked improvement in their sentiment. 60% of these dealers feel that their dealership performance is going to be better in the next six months (up from 38% in the quarter ending June 2014).

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

9%

51%

32%

8%

4DEALERSHIP

OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

sewellsgroup.comPage 11

OVERALL

11%

59%

23%

7%

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

14%

58%

23%

5%

10%

60%

27%

3%

26%

57%

13%

4%

10%

50%25%

15%

Page 13: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 12

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUS

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

29%

24%

27%

20%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

20%

23%

37%

20%

52% of the dealers in this quarter feel that their sales have improved as compared to the previous year; this is comparable to the 52% of the dealers who feel that the current economic scenario has a positive impact on their dealership.

About 44% of passenger car dealers feel that their dealership sales have increased with respect to same period last year. This isn’t a significant jump with respect to the opinion in the previous survey, where 36% of passenger car dealers were of the similar opinion.

Majority of two wheeler dealers feel that their sales this period is higher than the same period last year (up from 64% in quarter ending June 2014 to 76% in quarter ending September 2014)

39% of the commercial vehicle dealers (up from 16% in previous quarter) feel that their sales have improved since last year.

17%

35%

34%

14%

11%

33%

39%

17%

35%

41%

17%

7% 11%

28%

50%

11%

Page 14: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 13

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUS0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

8%

21%

36%

35%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

31%

34%

26%

9%

Inventory corrections by dealers has not improved much since the last quarter. Overall, only 69% reporting higher inventory as against 66% at the end of previous quarter as compared to same period last year.

Inventory levels viz‐a‐viz same period previous year according to 82% of two wheeler dealers has increased. This is similar to the sentiment expressed by the dealers in the previous edition of the survey.

Inventory levels viz‐a‐viz same period previous year for both passenger cars and commercial vehicle dealers has increased as compared to the results of the previous survey (up from 58% to 64% and up from 54% to 68% respectively).

30%

39%

26%

5%

21%

43%

31%

5%

55%28%

13%

4%

21%

47%

26%

5%

Page 15: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 14

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUSSALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

43%

24%

21%

12%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

13%

20%

26%

41%

Dealers continue to express a pessimistic sentiment about their profits vis‐a‐vis same period previous year. 39% of dealers feel that their profits have increased as compared to same period last year, as against only 33% dealers feeling the same during the previous quarter survey.

The above sentiments are reflected across all the three segments. The two wheeler dealers (down to 48% from 50% at the end of previous quarter) and the passenger car dealer (at 37% up from 30% at the end of previous quarter) reporting higher profits when compared with the same period last year.

Commercial vehicle dealer sentiment is slightly better as compared to the previous quarter. 26% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits are more than the same period previous quarter, as compared to only 8% who were of the same opinion in the previous survey.

12%

27%

32%

29%

8%

29%

31%

32%22%

26%28%

24%10%

16%

48%

26%

Page 16: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 15

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

21%

36%

30%

13%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

Majority of the dealers (63%) feel that their sales in the Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter were higher than Mar‐Jun 2014 quarter.

64% of the passenger car dealers surveyed in the previous quarter had suggested that their sales figures in Q2 had dipped as compared to Q1 of 2014. However, in the quarter ending September 2014, 63% of dealers feel that their sales figure has improved over the Q2 of 2014.

75% of two wheeler dealers (up from 66%) feel that their sales in Q3 of 2014 were higher than that of Q2.

Only 36% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their sales has been higher in this quarter. However, this figure is slightly better than 23% dealers feeling the same in the previous survey, suggesting slight improvement in the dealership business with respect to sales over the last six months.

17%

28%

40%

15%

19%

44%

28%

9%

14%

49%

28%

9%

33%

42%

18%

7%15%

21%

53%

11%

Page 17: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 16

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

6%

27%

37%

30%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

18%

46%

32%

4%

Overall, the higher inventories continue to be troublesome for dealers. The situation seems to have worsened over the last 3 months with 69% reporting higher inventory as compared to 64% at the end of quarter ending June 2014.

The above trend is replicated by passenger car dealers with 69% reporting higher inventory as compared to 61% at the Apr‐Jun quarter of 2014.

Two wheeler dealers continue to remain the worst effected with 80% of dealers feeling that their inventory levels are higher than the previous quarter, as compared to 78% at the end of previous quarter.

Commercial vehicle dealers seem to struggle with maintaining inventory levels. Only 53% of these dealers show that their inventory levels have gone low as compared to 62% in the quarter ending June 2014.

28%

41%

27%

4%

21%

48%

27%

4%

47%

33%

18%

2%

21%

26%47%

6%

Page 18: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 17

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

36%

31%

22%

11%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

8%

32%

30%

30%

Overall, the positive movement of sentiment about profits continues in this quarter as well. 49% of dealers reported higher profits as compared to 40% at the end of quarter ending June 2014.

54% of the two wheeler dealers surveyed feel that their profits have increased in quarter ending September 2014 (up from 46% in quarter ending June 2014).

A similar sentiment has been reported by car dealers where this figure has gone up from 38% in the quarter ending June 2014 to 51% in this quarter.

Even though there is slight improvement in the sentiments about sales of the commercial vehicle dealers, profit seems to have shrunk. 74% of these dealers feel that their profit have lowered in this quarter as compared to 69% who were of the similar opinion in the quarter ending June 2014.

14%

35%

28%

23%

10%

41%26%

23% 24%

30%28%

18% 10%

16%

37%

37%

Page 19: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 18

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

7%

31%

46%

16%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

21%

54%

19%

6%

A slight dip in the sentiment about expected sales in the next six months of dealers as compared to that in quarter ending June 2014 is seen in this survey (down to 74% from 75%).

This dip can be attributed to the sentiments of passenger car dealers. 72% of these dealers expect their sales to be higher in the next six months as against 77% who were of this opinion in the quarter ending June 2014.

Two wheeler dealers continue to be optimistic with 80% dealers expecting to clock higher sales in the next six months.

Commercial vehicle dealers who had anticipated a decrease in sales in the previous survey, are optimistic about their sales in the next six months (up from 46% to 69%).

26%

48%

23%

3%

23%

49%

24%

4%

37%

43%

15%5%

16%

53%

32%

0%

Page 20: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 19

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

3%

25%

55%

17%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

19%

53%

26%

2%

Overall, the dealers expect the inventories to continue to be a concern, with 70% dealers expecting their inventory levels to be higher in the next six months, as compared to 72% dealers feeling the same in the previous quarter.

Passenger car dealers expect some correction in inventory management in the next six months. 69% of dealers in the quarter ending September 2014 feel inventory levels will be higher as compared to 77% in the quarter ending June 2014.

Two wheeler dealers anticipate a slight correction in inventory, 78% expecting to carry higher inventories in the next six months as compared to 82% in the previous survey.

Commercial dealer sentiments about increase inventory in the next six months haven’t changed much (moved to 58% from 54% in the quarter ending June 2014)

26%

44%

28%

2%

23%

46%

29%

2%

39%

39%

22%

0%

11%

47%

37%

5%

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PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

20%

30%

38%

12%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

13%

46%

25%

16%

Overall, the expectations of dealers about profits have shown a slight dip with 57% dealers expecting higher profits as compared to 59% at the end of last quarter.

This could be because both the passenger car and two wheeler dealers foresee a dip in profits in the next six months. 59% of both passenger cars and two wheelers dealers expect their profits to be higher as compared to 62% and 67% in the quarter ending June 2014 respectively.

However, there has been a marked improvement of commercial vehicle dealer sentiments about anticipated increase in profits in next six months (up to 42% from 23% at the end of quarter ending June 2014).

17%

40%

32%

11%

16%

43%

29%

12%22%

37%

28%

13% 10%

32%53%

5%

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PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

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8MANPOWER

MONTHS

EXPECTED

STRENGTHOVER NEXT SIX

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

6%

26%

47%

21%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

19%

54%

25%

2%

Overall, the dealers continue to remain bullish about their dealership manpower strength (slight dip from 73% in the quarter ending June 2014 to 71% in the quarter ending September 2014).

Passenger car dealers anticipate an increase in manpower strength in the next six months, however this sentiment is slightly weaker than that expressed in the previous survey (down from 69% to 66%).

Two wheeler dealers are the most optimistic about their dealership manpower strength in the next six months. 91% of dealers expect their manpower strength to be higher as compared to 88% in the quarter ending June 2014.

Commercial vehicle dealers have similar sentiments with respect to anticipated manpower increase as in the last survey (up from 46% to 50%).

23%

48%

27%

2%

22%

44%

32%

2%

30%

61%

9%

0%

10%

40%45%

5%

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SSEWELLSGROUP

ABOUT

Sewells Group is a global consulting and outsourcing firm which specializes in the automotive retail industry. Our very reason for being in the business is to improve the performance of individuals and organizations in the automotive retail industry. We operate across the Asia‐Pacific, Africa and Middle East regions.

Our in‐depth subject matter expertise in this area and our deep engagements with many leading automotive brands make us a leader in our business. Our Integrated Dealer Performance Management Model has delivered exceptional success to leading OEMs across the world. Through our proven business management model, demonstrated competence solutions and process efficacy initiatives, we contribute meaningfully to our clients’ businesses.

For more information, visit www.sewellsgroup.com

Sewells Group Contacts:

JAYESH JAGASIAManaging Partner & CEO‐Sewells Group IndiaE: [email protected]: +91 22 67354915, M: +91 9819765234

POOJA PEWEKARGroup Marketing Manager‐Sewells GroupE:[email protected]: +91 22 67354914

Page 24: SEWELLS GROUP ADCI REPORT- END OF JUL-SEP 2014 QUARTER (INDIA)

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DISCLAIMER

The contents of this report represent the opinion of survey respondents, and not that of Sewells Group, Sewells Group India, any of their subsidiary companies, or employees thereof.

The contents of this report and analysis of responses received in response to the quarterly Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey are to be viewed as broad trends being observed, and not as definite commentary on the state of economy, state of business or policy framework of any automotive manufacturer and/or franchised automotive dealer group.

The contents of this report should not be viewed as commentary on the prospects of a particular manufacturer or brand as it is only intended to summarize the perceptions and opinions of respondents.

The contents of the report and analysis of responses should not be viewed in isolation, but in conjunction with the number of responses considered in the computation of the index and subsequent analysis.

ADCI methodology and this survey may be limited by significance of sample size or other statistical parameters. We advise reader discretion on matters such as these.

Sewells Group does not take the responsibility of or does not indemnify any user of the study against the impact of the decisions made taking into accounts the findings of this study.